【导读】"股债跷跷板"效应凸显，短期或呈现震荡磨顶行情，中长期债券市场仍会回归基本面和资金面 定价 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张燕北 近期股市持续走高，债市却同步经历显著调整。对于本轮债市下跌，受访公募机构及业内人士分析认 为，背后是多重因素共同作用的结果：宏观经济预期变化、短期货币政策维持不降息基调、股市走强后 风险偏好提升、债市配置资金被分流等，其中市场情绪的催化是主导性因素。 展望后续债市走向，机构普遍认为，利率连续大幅上行的概率较低，短期内债市大概率呈现"磨顶"行 情，现阶段可配置中短端票息类资产。从中长期维度看，债券市场定价终将回归基本面与资金面逻辑。 本轮调整主要由情绪催化所致 债基赎回整体可控 自7月初以来，10年期国债到期收益率上行至1.78%，累计涨幅达8.2%；长债调整更为显著，30年期国 债到期收益率上行至2.08%，累计涨幅达11.46%。在业内看来，本轮债券市场调整的主要原因在于市场 情绪变化下资金出现分流。 长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕表示，近期"股债跷跷板"和风险偏好抬升。4月初中美关税冲 击以来，股票市场稳定修复，呈现"高收益，低波动"的反常表现，其风险收益比明显高于债券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced adjustments due to rising bond yields influenced by "anti-involution" policies and increasing commodity prices, while the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - Since July 21, bond market interest rates have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing from 1.66% to 1.75%, and the 30-year yield surpassing 1.99% [3]. - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including the introduction of "anti-involution" policies and rising expectations for industrial commodity prices, which have led to a passive adjustment in the bond market [3][4]. - As of August 1, the 10-year government bond yield has retreated to around 1.69%, and the 30-year yield has decreased to approximately 1.95% [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - According to Wind statistics, from July 21 to August 1, the average return of pure bond funds, including medium- and short-term bond funds and bond index funds, was -0.12%, with nearly 80% of bond funds reporting negative returns [5][6]. - Nine funds experienced a decline of over 1%, with notable losses in funds such as Debon Ruiyu Rate Bond A (-1.37%), Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Rate Bond 6-Month Holding A (-1.30%), and others [5][6]. - The year-to-date returns for several funds have turned negative, with specific funds like Huatai Fenghe Pure Bond A and Guotai Huifeng Pure Bond A showing returns of -0.93% and -0.73%, respectively [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As market concerns ease, several institutions view the current bond market adjustment as a potential opportunity for reallocation [7]. - According to Fangzheng Securities, the bond market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for a stable upward trend in August following the adjustment [7]. - Longcheng Securities suggests that the bond market will return to rationality with clearer policies, and the 10-year government bond yield is expected to stabilize around 1.7% [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the bond market and its recent adjustments, influenced by macroeconomic policies and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Adjustment Factors**: The recent market adjustment is attributed to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite following the initiation of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station project, which boosted equity and commodity markets, thereby exerting pressure on the bond market [2]. 2. **Liquidity Conditions**: After a period of relative liquidity in June, July saw increased volatility and signs of tightening liquidity, which placed significant pressure on bullish positions in the bond market [2][3]. 3. **Redemption Pressures**: Weak institutional earnings have led to redemption pressures, causing a shift in holdings between trading and allocation positions [2][3]. 4. **"Anti-Internal Competition" Policy**: This policy aims to elevate prices to lower the actual interest rates for enterprises, thereby improving profitability. The effectiveness of this policy will be assessed by monitoring CPI and PPI in the fourth quarter [1][4]. 5. **Asset Allocation Trends**: The adjustment in asset allocation is primarily occurring at the institutional level, with a notable increase in the allocation to equity assets, particularly high-dividend stocks and Hong Kong stocks, as a response to declining deposit rates [5][6]. 6. **Bond Supply and Demand**: Convertible bonds are in high demand due to their scarcity, while credit bonds have stable net supply but increased demand due to the growth of wealth management products. Conversely, the supply of interest rate bonds is rising, but demand is weakening [7]. 7. **Future Market Variables**: Key variables to monitor include central bank operations, potential tightening of liquidity, and the impact of government bond issuance on market dynamics. The necessity for interest rate cuts may decrease if the focus shifts to lowering actual interest rates [8][9]. 8. **Macroeconomic Trends**: The macroeconomic trend is shifting from relying on rate cuts to using price increases to lower actual rates. This could pose mid-term risks to the bond market if nominal growth and price levels rise [10]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights a lack of significant retail investor movement towards equities, indicating that the rebalancing of assets is more pronounced among institutional investors [5][6]. - The potential for a rebound in the third quarter is noted, contingent on fiscal issuance and central bank liquidity measures, while caution is advised for the fourth quarter due to possible risks [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has recently undergone significant adjustments, and the adjustment may not be over yet. The market generally expects the yield of the 10 - year active bond to operate between 1.7% - 1.8% in the next month, with the yield top at 1.8% and the bottom at 1.6% in the second half of the year. The report maintains the mid - term strategy of 1.6% - 1.9% for the 10 - year treasury bond [3][8]. - The market generally expects the yield curve to steepen, with a higher probability of a bear steepening. Making the curve steeper remains a relatively high - probability strategy [11]. - The expected returns of bond funds have been significantly downgraded, and bonds are currently the least favored major asset class. The market expects the yield of medium - and long - term bond funds to be below 2% for over 80% of the time, and below 1.5% for 40% of the time this year [3][15]. - The bond market may experience some oversold rebounds, but the upside is limited due to insufficient internal positive factors. It is recommended to be cautious with duration, lower annual return expectations, maintain a low - volatility portfolio, and seize short - term trading opportunities [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for the Bond Market Adjustment - The rise of commodities and equities is considered the main reason. The stock and commodity markets have strengthened this week, with the duration and amplitude exceeding market expectations, which has weakened the sentiment in the bond market. The low interest rate level is a secondary reason, as the low cost - effectiveness of bond assets and limited downward space for interest rates lead to significant adjustments when there are negative factors [3][5]. Bond Market Stabilization - Most views believe that the bond market has not yet stabilized, but small - scale entry is possible. Some also think that sentiment has reversed and short - term stabilization is difficult, while few believe the adjustment has ended. The bond market has been affected by risk assets in the past few days, and yesterday's sharp decline was also due to the tightening of funds in July and the lower - than - expected MLF roll - over at the end of the session [3][5]. Yield Point Estimation - 1.8% is generally considered the upper limit of this round of adjustment. Most think the 10 - year active bond will operate between 1.7% - 1.8% in the next month, with the yield top at 1.8% and the bottom at 1.6% in the second half of the year. The report believes that there may be some repair around 1.8%, and oversold rebound operations can be carried out in the range of 1.75% - 1.8%, but the interest rate adjustment may not be over in the whole - year dimension [3][8]. Yield Curve Expectation - The market generally expects the yield curve to steepen, with a higher probability of a bear steepening. Since July, funds have been relatively loose, so the short - end adjustment has been significantly smaller than the long - end. The market generally expects funds to maintain the current level, while the long - end is more affected by other factors. Making the curve steeper remains a relatively high - probability strategy [11]. Risks and Opportunities in the Bond Market - The mainstream expectations for bond market opportunities are central bank bond purchases, A - share and commodity market corrections, while the attention to real estate and tariffs has weakened. Risk factors are more diverse, including A - share rises, institutional redemption pressure, central bank tightening of liquidity, and inflation increases. Although the decline in this round is less than that in the first quarter, the redemption of bond funds is stronger, and the secondary impact of redemptions needs to be vigilant [3][13]. Bond Fund Return Expectation - The expected returns of bond funds have been significantly downgraded, and bonds are currently the least favored major asset class. As of July 22, the year - to - date returns of the money market fund index and the long - term pure bond fund index are 0.77% and 0.70% respectively. Over 80% of the market expects the yield of medium - and long - term bond funds to be below 2% this year, and 40% expect it to be below 1.5%, indicating that the market expects the second - half returns to be difficult to exceed the first - half returns [3][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to significantly reduce the issuance of super-long-term government bonds due to unprecedented fluctuations in yields, exceeding earlier media reports [1][2] Group 1: Issuance Reduction Details - The total issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds will be reduced by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) for the fiscal year ending March 2026, surpassing the previously expected reduction of 2.3 trillion yen [1][2] - Specifically, the issuance of 20-year bonds will decrease by 1.8 trillion yen to 10.2 trillion yen, which is double the amount reported earlier [2] - The issuance of 30-year bonds will be reduced by 900 billion yen to 8.7 trillion yen, and the issuance of 40-year bonds will decrease by 500 billion yen to 2.5 trillion yen [2] Group 2: Short-term Debt Adjustments - To compensate for the reduction in long-term debt issuance, the Ministry of Finance is considering increasing the issuance of short-term debt, particularly six-month bonds [1] - The overall issuance of Japanese government bonds for the fiscal year will see a slight decrease of 500 billion yen, totaling 171.8 trillion yen [1] - The issuance of 2-year bonds will increase by 600 billion yen to 31.8 trillion yen, and the issuance of 1-year bonds will rise by 300 billion yen to 38.7 trillion yen [2] - The issuance of six-month bonds will see a significant increase of 1.8 trillion yen to 4.2 trillion yen [2] Group 3: Market Context - The adjustments come amid severe volatility in the Japanese bond market, with rising yields causing global market reactions [1] - Recent concerns regarding Japan's fiscal situation have intensified selling pressure, particularly after weak auction demand led to a spike in yields for 30-year and 40-year bonds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the number of short - term pure bond funds was 358, accounting for 2.84% of the entire fund market, and the issuance in Q1 decreased compared to the same period last year. The total assets and net assets of short - term pure bond funds decreased, and the average scale also declined. The average leverage ratio dropped by 0.02, and the single - quarter average net value growth rate was 0.15%, a significant decline from the previous quarter. In terms of asset allocation, bonds accounted for 97.4% of the total assets, with an increase of 0.8% from the previous quarter, and the proportion of other assets changed slightly. In terms of specific bond types, interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds were the main holdings, and the proportion of corporate bonds and interest - rate bonds increased [1][44]. Summary by Directory 2025 Q1 Short - term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Number of Bond Funds**: As of the end of Q1 2025, there were 358 short - term pure bond funds, accounting for 2.84% of the entire fund market. In Q1, 4 short - term pure bond funds were issued, a decrease compared to the same period last year [1][10]. - **Bond Fund Scale**: As of the end of Q1 2025, the total assets and net assets of short - term pure bond funds were 10,343 billion yuan and 9,234 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 2,480 billion yuan and 2,011 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 31 billion yuan and 27 billion yuan respectively, a decline of 7.8 billion yuan and 6.4 billion yuan from the end of the previous quarter. Among the 337 old short - term pure bond funds, 61 had a positive net asset scale growth, and 276 had a decline. The net assets of Puyin Andaxin 60 - day Rolling Holding increased by 4.52 billion yuan [1][11]. - **Leverage Ratio**: At the end of Q1 2025, the average leverage ratio of short - term pure bond funds was 1.12 under both the overall method and the average method, a decrease of 0.02 from the end of the previous quarter [1][17]. - **Net Value Growth Rate**: In Q1 2025, the bond market adjusted, and interest rates rose. The single - quarter average net value growth rate of short - term pure bonds was 0.15%, a significant decline from the previous quarter. Among the 337 funds, 276 had a positive net value growth rate, accounting for 82.0%, and the net value growth rate was mainly distributed between (-1,0) and (0,1] [20][23]. 2025 Q1 Short - term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Large - scale Asset Allocation**: As of the end of Q1 2025, the total assets of short - term pure bond funds were 10,343 billion yuan. Bonds accounted for 97.4% of the total assets, an increase of 0.8% from the previous quarter; bought - back assets accounted for 1.3%, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous quarter; bank deposits and other assets accounted for 0.7% and 0.6% respectively, with changes of - 0.2% and - 0.4% from the previous quarter [2][28]. - **Bond Type Allocation**: As of the end of Q1 2025, the main bond types held by short - term pure bond funds were interest - rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy - based financial bonds), and corporate - issued bonds, accounting for 13.0%, 15.3%, and 67.6% of the total bond assets respectively. The proportions of inter - bank certificates of deposit, asset - backed securities, and other bonds were 3.4%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively. Compared with the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds changed by 0.4%, - 0.9%, and 1.2% respectively, and the proportions of inter - bank certificates of deposit and other bonds changed by - 0.6% and - 0.1% respectively, while the proportion of asset - backed securities remained basically the same. Among specific bond types, medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, financial bonds, and policy - based financial bonds had relatively high proportions, and the proportions of corporate bonds and interest - rate bonds increased, while most other bond types decreased slightly [30][35].