Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. The cost of butadiene, a key raw material for cis - butadiene rubber, is weakening due to increased supply pressure in the domestic butadiene market. The cis - butadiene rubber market shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with supply growth exceeding demand growth, leading to greater fundamental pressure. However, the widening NR - BR spread to around 1,500 yuan/ton may support the single - sided price of cis - butadiene rubber [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook and Analysis - **Futures - end Static Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,700 yuan/ton. The dynamic valuation is expected to decline due to weak butadiene trading. The upper valuation limit of the futures is around 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is around 11,200 yuan/ton. The theoretical full - cost estimate of cis - butadiene rubber is mainly based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliaries + labor) [4]. - **Butadiene Fundamentals**: Asian butadiene prices remain stable, while the domestic butadiene market is weak with a downward - trending price center. Supply is high as the industry's operating rate is still at a high level year - on - year, and weekly production is maintained at a high level with the resumption of some ethylene plants. Imports are neutral in the short term. Demand from cis - butadiene rubber procurement is neutral, and there is also rigid demand from styrene - butadiene, ABS, and SBS. Inventories show an increase in producer inventories and a slight decline in port inventories [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Fundamentals**: The processing profit of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually returning above the break - even line, and the supply - side operating rate is expected to remain high year - on - year and increase month - on - month. Demand remains high, and substitution demand is expected to increase. Inventories are continuously at a high level year - on - year. The fundamentals have a weak driving force for synthetic rubber, and the spot is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Futures**: In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The cost side is affected by the weakening butadiene market, and the market shows a pattern where supply growth exceeds demand growth, resulting in greater fundamental pressure. The widening NR - BR spread may support the price [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term weakness in single - sided trading; the NR - BR spread is expected to widen [4]. 2. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Pricing Stage**: Butadiene is currently in the supply - demand pricing stage, with a low correlation with the raw material end [7]. - **Capacity Expansion**: To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages [9]. - **New Capacity**: In 2024, a total of 380,000 tons of new capacity was put into operation, and in 2025, a total of 860,000 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, mainly through the C4 extraction process [11]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The operating rate of the butadiene industry remains at a high level year - on - year, and weekly production is high. Some enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect production to some extent [13][14][15]. - **Net Imports**: The report provides data on butadiene imports, exports, and net imports, but does not make a specific analysis of the trend [16]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The capacity of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber is also expanding, with new projects being put into operation in different regions [17][18][19]. - **Demand - side - Operating and Maintenance of Cis - Butadiene and Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: The operating rates of cis - butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber show different trends, and some enterprises have maintenance and production adjustment plans [22][23][24]. - **Demand - side - Capacity of ABS and SBS**: The capacity of ABS and SBS is also increasing, with significant capacity increments in 2024 and 2025 [25][26][27][28]. - **Demand - side - Fundamentals of ABS and SBS**: The operating rate, profit, inventory, and capacity utilization rate of ABS and SBS show different trends, reflecting the market supply - demand relationship [29][30]. - **Inventory - side**: Butadiene producer inventories are increasing, while port inventories are slightly decreasing [31][32][33]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The weekly production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber shows different trends in different years, and the operating rate remains at a certain level [38]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends over time [40][41][42]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The monthly import and export volumes of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends in different years [43][44]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber show different trends [47][48]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The inventory and operating rate of domestic tires (full - steel and semi - steel) show different trends, reflecting the demand for cis - butadiene rubber in the tire industry [51][52].