合成橡胶早报 jis 研究中心能化团队 2026/1/9 | 品种 | 类别 | 指标 | 12/9 | 12/31 | 1/6 | 1/7 | 1/8 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 10450 | 11520 | 11830 | 12155 | 12195 | 40 | 675 | | | | 持つ量 | 76409 | 41261 | 37293 | 33982 | 30228 | -3754 | -11033 | | | 需可 | 成交量 | 111045 | 97681 | 125869 | 138247 | 167637 | 29390 | ୧୦୦୮୧ | | | | 仓単数量 | 17320 | 23490 | 23160 | 24360 | 24330 | -30 | 840 | | | | 虚实比 | 22.06 | 8.78 | 8.05 | 6.97 | 6.21 | -1 | -3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 50 | -20 ...

00区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 325 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12155 | | 33981 | -3312 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) -5 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -30 | | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11750 | | 11750 | 150 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | | | | 11750 | 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 11800 | 100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -305 | ...

周波来到北方华锦合成橡胶（辽宁）有限公司，详细了解企业生产经营情况，得知企业通过高端 化、差异化产品研发，培育新质生产力，产品远销国内外，周波充分肯定，鼓励企业持续推动技术升 级，打造合成橡胶产业优势。在盘锦三力中科新材料有限公司，周波走进中控室，查看企业年产十万吨 新材料项目运行情况。该企业乙烯三步法制甲基丙烯酸甲酯技术达到国际先进水平，打破国外垄断，填 补国内空白。周波对此表示赞赏，强调要加大自主创新成果转化力度，充分发挥国家级高新技术企业引 领作用。在盘锦研峰科技有限公司，周波重点了解企业在新药、半导体、石化聚烯烃等领域专用金属有 机新材料研发生产情况，对企业建立技术团队，攻克"卡脖子"技术表示认可，鼓励企业完善研发—中试 —产业化机制，不断迭代研发生产高端金属有机新材料及相关产品，提升市场竞争力。 1月6日，省政协主席周波到盘锦市，围绕"十五五"时期推进大盘绿色石化集群向世界级迈进开展调 研，并走访所联系企业。 周波来到辽滨沿海经济技术开发区智慧管控平台，详细了解园区数字化治理、绿色低碳发展等情 况，强调要以智慧赋能园区管理提质增效，筑牢安全环保底线。在所联系企业辽宁汇福粮油集团，周波 走进生产车间和 ...

后存检修安排，叠加部分企业周期内延续控产，拖拽样本企业产能利用率下行，由于部分企业存3天左右的 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 检修安排，4号左右逐步恢复，本周轮胎企业产能利用率或有小幅回升。br2603合约短线预计在11700-122 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 00区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11830 | 185 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 37293 | -2944 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -25 | 15 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9 ...

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-05 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 检修安排，4号左右逐步恢复，本周轮胎企业产能利用率或有小幅回升。br2603合约短线预计在11400-120 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 00区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11645 | 125 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 40237 | -1024 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差( ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年01月04日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：短期中枢上移，中期步入震荡 供应 • 2026年1月份中国顺丁橡胶预计产量15.37万吨，较2025年12月份预期增长1.01万吨。截至撰稿当日，隆众资讯统计到未来一个月内共1套装置计划检修，涉 及年加工能力10万吨/年。既定检修计划仅茂名石化一家，部分其他装置检修计划有取消迹象，另外独山子石化3万吨高顺顺丁橡胶装置2026年计划常年 停车。（隆众资讯） • 目前顺丁橡胶期货基本面静态估值区间为10700-11700元/吨。由于期货交易丁二烯强预期，期货升水现货，静态估值上沿阶段性失效。估值逻辑发生切换， 从成本端对下方估值形成支撑，转变为NR-BR价差对下方估值形成支撑。下方估值而言，有两条估值逻辑。逻辑一为NR-BR价差逻辑，2024年四季度nr- ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11565 | -35 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 49563 | -9640 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -25 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11450 | 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11450 | 150 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11500 | 东(日,元/吨) 150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 1 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

近日，中国合成橡胶工业协会会长张孝明接受《中国化工报》记者采访时指出，"十五五"是我国迈向 2035年基本实现现代化的重要衔接阶段，也是合成橡胶行业迈向高质量发展的新阶段，在新周期，行业 发展方向清晰，其未来值得期待。 具体应该怎样做？协会秘书长李锦山提出"产业协同、结构优化、技术引领、绿色低碳、全球竞争力突 出"五大转变。他表示，协会将引导行业立足新发展阶段，以推动高质量发展为主题，加快推进由大变 强的历史性跨越，为制造强国建设提供坚实支撑。 高端应用重塑产品结构 "高端合成橡胶是航空航天等新兴战略领域不可替代的关键基础材料。"李锦山指出，"十四五"期间，我 国液体橡胶、生物基弹性体等一批高端化产品已填补国内空白，高性能合成橡胶和特种弹性体市场占比 由"十三五"末的30%提升至40%；但目前用于苛刻环境、光电通讯、高端医疗等领域的部分高端合成橡 胶产品仍然依赖进口，合成橡胶行业产能结构性饱和问题依然严峻。 对此，李锦山建议，产业结构调整需在国家政策和企业发展的同时带动下不断深化。在国家层面，一是 将高端合成橡胶列入国家战略性新兴产业重点目录，明确技术攻关目录；二是加快制定橡胶制品领域的 国家和行业标准，推动 ...