合成橡胶产业日报 2026-03-02 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13465 | 835 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 39385 | -5367 | | | 合成橡胶4-5价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | -25 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 18540 | 0 | | | | 12450 | 0 | 12400 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 12400 | 0 | 12550 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -145 | 东(日,元/吨) 45 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 节后累库成交乏力，BR震荡偏弱运行 行情回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-3-2 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院（助理分析师）：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：节后累库成交乏力，B R震荡偏弱运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 12 15 1 27% 76 25 3 28 -0 35% 81 74 （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %；高顺顺丁产量 万吨（ ），产能利用率为 %； | | | | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化等装置维持停车状态，中化泉州石化、海南炼化装置陆续重启，影响周产量环比提升；顺丁橡胶方 | | | | 面，茂名石化顺丁装置且华北部分降负民营装置负荷提升，扬子顺丁短停预计重启，产能利用率提升至高位水平。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：偏强运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：地缘加剧，偏强运行 | | • | 本周期多数顺丁橡胶装置维持高负荷运行，仅山东个别顺丁橡胶装置负荷略有下降。此外，浩普新材料、浙江传化顺丁橡胶装置预计3月将进行检修。周 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 期内多数装置正常运行，山东益华顺丁橡胶装置负荷略降，振华新材料维持降负运行。下周期主流顺丁橡胶装置暂无较大变动，产能利用率预计仅微幅 下降。 （隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，。周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率环比上周期明显提升，上周期正值春节假期，多数企业停产放假，产能利用率处于年内低点。节后多家轮 | | 需求 | | 胎企业在2月22日（正月初六）至2月24日（正月初八）陆续复工，个别企业在2月19日（正月初三）复工，排产处于逐步 ...

2月26日，"2026年常州—上海经贸交流和创新合作活动周"客商新春交流会在上海举行。这是常州连续第20年在上海举办经贸交流活动。从产业创新到 区域协同，从经贸交流到人文交融，"沪联互通、常来常往"已成为长三角一体化背景下沪常合作共赢的生动注脚。 本次活动周期间，预计达成合作项目28个，投资总额超过194亿元。 王剑锋表示，常州将全面融入全国统一大市场建设，全力营造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境，让每一个项目都能在常州投资安心、发展顺心。 诚挚欢迎更多上海企业和人才选择常州、深耕常州，共同书写长三角一体化发展新篇章。 常州市委书记王剑锋在致辞中表示，上海是改革开放前沿阵地、高质量发展标杆示范，"五个中心"建设动能强劲，持续引领长三角迈向世界级城市群。 常州作为长三角重要中心城市，近年来全方位服务和融入上海大都市圈，经济社会保持稳中有进、向新向优发展态势。 常州宣传部供图 2025年，常州实现地区生产总值近1.12万亿元、增长5.2%；一般公共预算收入715.5亿元，税收占比85.5%，高于全省平均8个百分点、居全省第一；工 业规模超2.2万亿元、全省第三，新能源产业开票突破万亿元，产业底座更加稳固。 面向 ...

近年来，常州已崛起为中国重要的新能源汽车之城，汇聚了理想汽车、比亚迪、宁德时代等众多整 车制造和核心供应链企业。不仅如此，常州地处长三角中心地带，交通网络发达。这不仅便于服务长三 角这一中国最大的汽车产业集群，也能通过便捷的物流辐射全国乃至全球市场。正是由于三元乙丙、丁 腈及氢化丁腈橡胶在汽车领域有着广泛应用，将工厂直接建在核心客户"家门口"，才能极大地缩短供应 链半径，提升响应速度。这也正是阿朗新科"Local for Local"（立足本地、服务本地）战略的核心要 义。 此次新工厂的投产更将助力阿朗新科为客户提供系统性解决方案。阿朗新科亚洲技术总监程宝家表 示，汽车领域对橡胶制品的要求极高，且标准正趋于全球统一。阿朗新科的橡胶产品历经迭代，通过优 化催化剂和分子结构控制，并结合客户关于炼胶设备和加工设备的反馈，能为客户提供稳定、一致的产 品质量，例如在乙丙橡胶的门尼粘度指标控制上，阿朗新科的产品拥有更小的波动和更高的批次稳定 性，这为汽车领域客户后续生产提供了更好基础。未来，阿朗新科将研发生产更高分子量且性能更好的 产品，并实现不同产品间的相互配合，形成良性循环，助力多领域客户发展。 阿朗新科中国董事总经 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：广发期货研究 证监许可【2011】1292号 赖众栋 Z0023571 2026年2月26日 星期四 成本端国内丁二烯短期检修计划量较少，国内供应处于高位，但下游合成橡胶企业开工率较高，对丁二 烯需求形成一定支撑，且节后丁二烯港口库存仅小幅累库，净进口下降预期兑现中，预计短期丁二烯震 行情导读：2月26日，由于春节后顺丁橡胶库存大幅累库，使得BR大幅回落，截至发稿，合成橡胶期货 主力合约BR2603跌超3%。 驱动分析一：顺丁橡胶开工率与库存均高位运行，BR上方承压 隆众数据统计显示，截至2026年2月25日，国内顺丁橡胶库存量在5.35万吨，较春节前大幅增长1.96万 吨，环比+57.68%。大幅累库的主要原因为：（1）春节假期期间物流及下游放假等因素共同影响，样 本生产企业库存大幅增长，且假期横跨两结算周期，贸易企业开单压力亦有提升，库存水平延续上涨； （2）顺丁橡胶开工率高位运行。从生产毛利来看，目前顺丁橡胶生产毛利为-300元/吨附近，尽管处于 亏损状态，但亏损幅度不足以使得顺丁橡胶生产企业主动减停产。另外，从基差来看，自2025 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2026-02-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 635 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13140 | 14886 | 338 | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 65 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | -20 | 17540 | 560 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday procurement is basically over, with most sample production enterprises' inventories and the overall sample trading enterprises' inventories decreasing slightly. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined as some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Many all - steel tire enterprises will enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10th, and semi - steel tire enterprises will mainly shut down from February 13th to February 15th, so the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline. [2] - The br2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,020 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 160 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 24,037, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,421. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 14,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong and from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 68.8 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.96 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.4 US dollars. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 612.38 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 14.5 US dollars. [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,270 US dollars per ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons per week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 73.12%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refining atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 78.86%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 33,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons. [2] - The weekly ending inventory of manufacturers' cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 550 tons; the weekly ending inventory of traders' cis - butadiene rubber is 6,030 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 750 tons. [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.08 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.74 percentage points. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000. [2] - The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.19 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points. Some enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.499 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons (4.41%) and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 75.97%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.58 percentage points. [2] - As of February 4th, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons (3.78%). Recently, there were few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply remained high. The pre - holiday procurement was basically over, some traders sold at a discount to recover funds, and new transactions decreased. [2]

沙特阿美全资子公司阿朗新科，正在持续加码中国市场。 孙泓表示，全球宏观环境的结构性调整是整个行业都在努力面对的新问题。不过对阿朗新科来说，中国 在产业升级和新能源等新兴战略产业方面发展迅速。"我们希望作为上游原材料企业，更多地参与到新 能源、智能制造和绿色转型等增长方向的发展中来，为市场提供高性能材料，这对我们而言既是挑战也 是机遇。" 新工厂投产之后，阿朗新科在中国的投资总额已接近10亿美元。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 氢化丁腈橡胶是在丁腈橡胶的基础上进一步改性而成，其在耐化学介质、耐磨性、耐油性以及耐高低温 性能等方面都表现出色，是一类面向战略性新兴产业高端化需求的高性能合成橡胶材料。 "阿朗新科的新工厂可以更好地满足下游客户在不同应用场景下严苛且差异化的加工和性能需求， 比如 海上钻井和新能源汽车所需要的密封材料，以及动力电池。"阿朗新科常州工厂生产经理李晶向记者介 绍，例如在新能源汽车领域，一些车型采用电机油冷等先进技术，对密封材料的耐油性和可靠性提出了 更高要求，氢化丁腈橡胶正好能够支持更好的整车性能和更长的续航里程；在动力电池领域，合成橡胶 可以帮助实现碳材料的均匀分散，从而显著提升导电性能 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday procurement is almost over, with most sample production enterprises' inventory decreasing and sample trading enterprises' inventory slightly decreasing overall. It's expected that the inventory of both production and trading enterprises will increase in the short term. [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, with some enterprises entering the shutdown and holiday state, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Multiple all - steel tire enterprises will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday around February 10, and semi - steel tire enterprises mostly stop work from February 13 to February 15. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may further decline in the short term. [2] - The short - term forecast for the br2604 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,500. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,860 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50; the position volume is 25,458, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,150. [2] - The synthetic rubber 3 - 4 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 13,580 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2,370. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week; in Shanghai, it is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 50 week - on - week. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week. [2] - Brent crude oil is 69.04 US dollars/barrel, up 0.99; Naphtha CFR Japan is 597.88 US dollars/ton, down 4.75. [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1270 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - WTI crude oil is 64.36 US dollars/barrel, up 0.81; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 10,475 yuan/ton, up 125. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, up 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.12%, up 1.86 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, down 2,100 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.68%, down 1.92 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 143,600 tons, up 13,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 78.86%, up 2.48 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 482 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 33,100 tons, down 1,300 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons, down 550 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,030 tons, down 750 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.76%, down 2.08 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, down 1.74 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.286 million pieces, down 15,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.839 million pieces, up 8,000 pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.97 days, up 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.24 days, down 3.54 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of February 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.09%, down 2.23 percentage points week - on - week and up 59.45 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.45%, down 2.02 percentage points week - on - week and up 47.20 percentage points year - on - year. Some sample enterprises entered the shutdown and holiday state at the end of January, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. [2] - In January, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 149,900 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.41% and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. The capacity utilization rate was 75.97%, an increase of 3.19 percentage points from the previous month and 8.58 percentage points from the same period last year. [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the supply has remained high. The pre - holiday procurement is almost over. Some traders have carried out promotional activities to recover funds. Downstream procurement has basically ended, with new transactions decreasing and mainly focusing on picking up goods. The inventory of production enterprises decreased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly overall. As of February 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. [2]