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合成橡胶产业日报-20250826
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 09:42
合成橡胶产业日报 2025-08-26 300区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11845 | -165 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 43120 | -3585 | | | 合成橡胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11900 | 2 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:36
态,本周轮胎企业产能利用率或存小幅走低可能,高温天气以及整体订单增量有限等因素影响,月底仍会 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 有企业存灵活调整排产或检修计划,进而拖拽整体产能利用率小幅走低。br2510合约短线预计在11850-12 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 300区间波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-08-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12010 | 310 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 46705 | 10950 | | | 合成橡胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | 30 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2490 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 11700 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 11 ...
合成橡胶早报-20250825
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:37
jis 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/25 | | | | | | | | MITUT BRUITERY | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 7/23 | 8/15 | 8/20 | 8/21 | 8/22 | 日度変化 | 周度変化 | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11875 | 11815 | 11715 | 11775 | 11660 | -115 | -155 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 48591 | 20356 | 35691 | 38436 | 35755 | -2681 | 15399 | | | 播 直 | 主力合约成交量 | 125082 | 63265 | 169064 | 106881 | 89334 | -17547 | 26069 | | | | 仓単数量 | 9840 | 10470 | 12190 | 12190 | 12190 | 0 | 1720 | | | | 虚实比 | 24.69 | 9.72 | 14.6 ...
合成橡胶市场周报-20250822
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 09:25
瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员:林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾:本周国内顺丁橡胶山东市场顺丁橡胶价格持续震荡,现货价格波动区间在11500- 11900元/吨。中石化化销及中油主流销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶价格上调100元/吨。 行情展望:前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启,国内产量恢复性提升,周边市场影响,主流供 价进一步走高,但下游压价采购情绪高涨导致终端出货表现偏慢,本周生产企业库存微幅下降, 贸易企业库存提升,下周部分检修装置产能明显释放,国内供应或明显增量,成品库存水平预计 提升。需求方面,本周国内轮胎产能利用率环比提升,检修企业排产基本恢复正常运行,带动产 能利用率恢复性提升,企业基本维持常规走货状态,下周轮胎企业产能利用率或存小幅走低可能, 高温天气以及整体订单增量有限等因素影响,月底仍会有企业存灵活调整排产或检修计划,进而 拖拽整体产能利用率小幅走低。 策略建议 ...
合成橡胶早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Information**: On August 21, the closing price of the main contract was 11,775, with a daily increase of 60 and an interval increase of 130; the position was 38,436, up 2,745 daily and 14,763 in the interval; the trading volume was 106,881, down 62,183 daily but up 38,728 in the interval; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,190, unchanged daily and up 1,720 in the interval; the virtual - real ratio was 15.77, up 1 daily and 4 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,750, up 150 daily and 50 in the interval; the Chuanhua market price was 11,700, up 200 daily and 50 in the interval; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged daily and up 100 in the interval; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,725, unchanged daily and down 10 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Profitability**: The spot processing profit was - 64, up 12 daily; the disk processing profit was - 39, down 78 daily and up 105 in the interval; the import profit was - 85,257, up 142 daily and down 733 in the interval; the export profit was - 469, down 130 daily and down 46 in the interval [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,425, up 135 daily and 25 in the interval; the Jiangsu market price was 9,350, up 100 daily and 50 in the interval; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged; CFR China was 1,080, unchanged daily and up 10 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Profitability**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 256, up 100 daily and 50 in the interval; the import profit was 442, up from the previous value; the export profit was - 1,037, down 15 daily and up 26 in the interval; the butadiene styrene production profit was 938, unchanged daily and up 100 in the interval; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, unchanged [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - Variety**: The Thailand mixed - butadiene spread was 2,870, down 60 daily and up 150 in the interval; the 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, down 100 daily and up 150 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Variety**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 150, unchanged daily and down 50 in the interval; the butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, up 50 daily and unchanged in the interval [3][13][23].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 09:07
合成橡胶产业日报 2025-08-21 用率提升幅度形成一定拖拽。br2510合约短线预计在11600-12000区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 逐步恢复,产能利用率仍存小幅上调空间,但当前整体订单表现一般,企业控产仍将延续,对整体产能利 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11775 | 60 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 3843 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 08:59
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Cost supports the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Due to downstream caution and production - sales pressure, procurement may be cautious, and the finished product inventory is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,600 - 12,000 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract position is 35,691, down 89; the 9 - 10 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions has decreased to varying degrees, with a maximum decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 151,100 tons, up 4,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, down 0.07 percentage points; the port inventory is 20,400 tons, up 5,700 tons; the daily start - up rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, up 0.65 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, up 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, down 3.65 percentage points; the production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan; the social inventory is 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, down 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, down 300 tons [2]. - The weekly start - up rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points; the start - up rate of full - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the monthly production of full - steel tires is 12.75 million, up 130,000; the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million, up 1.74 million; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, down 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, down 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, up 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In July 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber production was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250820
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 23:51
ijis 加安期货 le - 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 11950 - 120000 11900 15000 11850 1000000 13000 11800 80000 11750 60000 11000 11700 40000 11650 9000 11600 20000 11550 7000 11500 10合约 现货 08合约 09合约 -- 8/19 -- 8/18 -- 8/15 -- 8/12 --- 7/18 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR08-09 2500 600 800 2000 400 600 1 200 200 400 1000 0 200 500 -20Q 0 0 -400 -20Q -500 al -600 -400 -1000 -800 -600 -1500 -800 - -1000 - 2024 -- 2024 · · 2025 2023 -- 2023 2023 · 2025 2024 · 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR09-10 600 - 18000 18000 160 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250819
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 08:59
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost supports the offer price of cis - butadiene rubber, but with the restart of some devices, domestic supply may increase significantly. Downstream procurement may be cautious, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - Last week, the domestic tire capacity utilization rate fluctuated slightly. Some semi - steel tire enterprises' maintenance dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate, while the resumption of work of all - steel tire maintenance enterprises drove up the capacity utilization rate. There is still room for a slight increase in capacity utilization, but the general order performance will limit the increase [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,840 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,780, with a week - on - week increase of 18,326. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is - 10 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different petrochemical companies in different regions have increased, with increases ranging from 100 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 66.6 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 63.42 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 825 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 570.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 69.69%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 20,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5,700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 47.52%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.65 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 64.52%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.65 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 482 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 124 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,450 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,990 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 63.09%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.09 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.73 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 14, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, or - 3.18% [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 69.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a week - on - week increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points [2]. - In July 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons, or + 5.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].
合成橡胶早报-20250819
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 05:38
Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: August 19, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [2][11][20] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Market Indicators**: On August 18, the closing price of the main contract was 11,800, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 15; the position volume was 17,454, a daily decrease of 2,902 and a weekly decrease of 10,634; the trading volume was 57,039, a daily decrease of 6,226 and a weekly decrease of 81,276; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 10,470; the virtual - real ratio was 8.34, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3][12][21]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was - 50, with a daily and weekly change not clearly defined; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 100, a daily increase of 115 and a weekly increase of 185; the styrene - butadiene basis was 550, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 185; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 115; the 9 - 10 month spread was - 5, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [3][12][21]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,750, a daily and weekly increase of 50; the Transfar market price was 11,700, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 200; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,735, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15 [3][12][21]. - **Profit Indicators**: The spot processing profit was - 79, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 111; the disk processing profit was - 29, a daily decrease of 107 and a weekly increase of 76; the import profit was - 85,265, a daily decrease of 690 and a weekly decrease of 1,418; the export profit was - 469, a daily decrease of 51 and a weekly decrease of 60 [3][12][21]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,440, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly decrease of 60; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, a daily increase of 100; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, with no daily or weekly change; CFR China was 1,080, a daily and weekly increase of 10 [3][12][21]. - **Profit Indicators**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 306, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the import profit was 491, a daily increase and a weekly decrease of 67; the export profit was - 1,151, a daily decrease of 92 and a weekly increase of 132 [3][12][21]. Downstream Products - **Profit Indicators**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 938, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 188; the ABS production profit data was partially unavailable; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 185 [3][12][21]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 1,634, a daily increase of 2,817 and a weekly increase of 10,699; NR - BR was - 4,804, a daily increase of 2,842 and a weekly increase of 10,664; Thai mixed - butadiene was 2,850, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 30; 3L - styrene - butadiene was 2,500, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200 [3][12][21]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price difference was 150, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 was 1,100, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 150 [3][12][21].