1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased, and there is still a possibility of further reduction in short - term inventory. The demand side saw a slight increase in the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with tight domestic sales supply, their capacity utilization remains at a high level. The capacity utilization of all - steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and the price increase news has led to concentrated shipments and obvious shortages, supporting the overall capacity utilization. At the end of the quarter, the operating rate is expected to remain high, but individual enterprises may adjust production schedules flexibly. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see, while paying attention to the impact of geopolitical changes on market sentiment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,720 yuan/ton, with a change of 920 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 115,005, with a change of 40,340. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 505 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 23,630 tons, with a change of 60 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical is 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 17,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 17,400 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 920 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 104.49 US dollars/barrel, with a change of 4.55 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 1,088.5 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 101 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,150 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,450 US dollars/ton, and the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,350 US dollars/ton, with a change of 50 US dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 92.35 US dollars/barrel [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons, with a change of 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.71%, with a change of - 2.99%. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,600 tons, with a change of - 3,400 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.29%, with a change of - 0.52%. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.99 million tons, with a change of 0.63 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 65.58%, with a change of - 14.4%. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 204 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2,500 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 42,600 tons, with a change of - 1,800 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 34,000 tons, with a change of - 1,350 tons; the trader's inventory is 8,610 tons, with a change of - 470 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, with a change of 0.54%; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 70.72%, with a change of 0.5%. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a change of - 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a change of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 41.09 days, with a change of - 2.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.59 days, with a change of 0.75 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points. In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. As of March 18, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.18 million tons and a decrease of 4.10% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict has led to a significant reduction in the operation of cracking units. As a by - product, the supply of butadiene has been passively contracted. Asian cracking units have declared force majeure, and Chinese butadiene rubber plants are also facing raw material shortages and product adjustment issues. Cost increases have pushed up the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber. The downstream negative feedback is gradually materializing, with the theoretical profit of butadiene rubber showing a large - scale inversion of over 2,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is expected to plummet from 80% to 57.4%. If the blockade persists, the risk of raw material supply disruption will exacerbate industry tensions [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 15,000 to 15,800 yuan/ton. The military conflict in the Middle East has led to a short - term supply shortage of crude oil and downstream energy - chemical products. The continuous procurement of Chinese butadiene resources by Japan and South Korea has kept the production cost of domestic butadiene rubber high. Under the pressure of large - scale losses, most domestic butadiene rubber units have reduced their operations to varying degrees, resulting in a significant decline in production and capacity utilization. In the spot market, downstream terminal procurement is cautious, and the negotiation atmosphere is still relatively light [4] 3.2 Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data missing] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data missing]%. During the week, some plants such as Sierbang and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants in Shandong also carried out maintenance, leading to a significant decline in production [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: During the cycle, most butadiene rubber plants in the Northeast, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong regions reduced their loads to varying degrees. The Zhejiang Chuanhua butadiene rubber plant started its regular rotation inspection plan [3] 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the cycle, some tire manufacturers issued price increase announcements, but the follow - up from other enterprises was limited. There was no obvious inventory - building phenomenon in the domestic market due to price increases. Currently, the Northeast and Inner Mongolia regions are in the peak demand season for all - season tires, and agents are slightly more active in stocking up. Other regions are in a normal stocking state, and the market transaction price has not changed [3] - **All - steel Tires**: The first batch of enterprises that increased prices on March 16 have implemented the price increase. Before the price increase, the stocking enthusiasm of market agents significantly increased, and the stocking enthusiasm of agents of other brands also increased significantly. The market circulation of popular models has accelerated compared to before. Although the actual terminal demand still needs time to recover, due to the unexpected increase in raw material costs, the market's bullish sentiment towards the tire price trend of being easy to rise and difficult to fall has increased [3] 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 27,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. During the week, the arrival of imported vessels at the port was limited, and downstream consumption was normal, resulting in a decline in inventory [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Last week, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 42,610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. Due to the tight supply and significant price increase of raw materials, butadiene rubber production enterprises faced large losses. Coupled with the reduction in the load of some units or upcoming maintenance, the available supply of goods was tight, and the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased [3] 3.5 Price and Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 735 yuan/ton, in East China is - 635 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 635 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 15 yuan/ton, the NR - BR spread is - 3,120 yuan/ton, and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.18% [3] 3.6 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 5,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction is 4,112.48 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 2,680 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 14.12% [3] 3.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis - The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has seriously escalated. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to panic - buying price increases in downstream olefin products, resulting in a temporary shortage of resource supply. The IEA has coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the shipping interruption crisis in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the military strike on Iran [3] 3.8 Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm - **Arbitrage**: Arrange a long - BR and short - NR/RU position [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cost of synthetic rubber has increased, and it is expected to operate strongly in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to significant intraday volatility, and trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news. [2][4][6] - The fundamentals of butadiene in China have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the cycle, the production of cis - butadiene rubber faced high - cost pressure and significant losses. Due to factors such as tight raw material supply and regular maintenance, the production capacity utilization rate decreased. The output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 16.04%, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53 percentage points. [4] - Some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in Shandong may further reduce their loads or shut down for maintenance in the near future. [4] Demand - It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain at the current level in the next cycle, with little overall fluctuation. Some enterprises will maintain a high start - up rate to complete quarterly tasks, and short - term start - up enthusiasm is relatively high. [4] - The substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to weaken rapidly as the price of synthetic rubber is higher than that of the No. 20 rubber main contract. [4] Inventory - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. [4] Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 15,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The upward valuation pressure has decreased significantly, and the lower valuation is mainly anchored to the butadiene price. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term; the upper pressure is 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton (butadiene spot quotation). [6] - Cross - variety: The position of short NR/RU and long BR is still in the driving stage and can be held (flexibly stop profit according to geopolitical situations). [6] 2. Butadiene Supply - In the current cycle (March 13 - 19, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 111,100 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11%. Next week, the estimated weekly output is about 108,600 tons, continuing to decline. [7] Demand - In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants increases, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to gradually decline. [7] - The demand for butadiene in ABS is expected to remain constant, with limited incremental demand. [7] - The negative feedback in the SBS industry is obvious, the industry start - up rate has declined, and the demand for butadiene has decreased. [7] Inventory - In the current cycle (March 12 - 18, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory continued to decline, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 6.33% month - on - month. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.09% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 10.97% month - on - month. [7] Viewpoint - The price of butadiene in Asia is strong. Overall, the fundamentals of butadiene in China have improved, and it is strong in the short term. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for cis - butadiene rubber continues to be strong due to the ongoing impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, and the strong performance of the domestic butadiene segment. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants remains high. After the Spring Festival, the downstream terminal's提货 and procurement demand gradually followed up. With the significant increase in the mainstream supply price, the negotiation focus rose and the transactions increased significantly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, while that of trading enterprises increased slightly. - It is expected that the inventory on the spot side will still decline significantly under the influence of the maintenance of some plants in late March. - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and most enterprises have returned to the normal level, boosting the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the short - term situation is unstable, and the order shipment resistance in the Middle - East region still exists, which may limit the increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate violently in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 14,935 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The position volume of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 24,717, a decrease of 9,862 compared with the previous period. - The synthetic rubber 4 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 20,350 tons, an increase of 720 tons compared with the previous period. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 15,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 15,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,600 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The basis of synthetic rubber was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The Brent crude oil price was 98.96 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 6.27 US dollars/barrel compared with the previous period. - The WTI crude oil price was 94.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.87 US dollars/barrel compared with the previous period. - The Northeast Asian ethylene price was 1,000 US dollars/ton, an increase of 90 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. - The CFR Japan naphtha price was 776.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. - The CFR China butadiene intermediate price was 1,800 US dollars/ton, an increase of 300 US dollars/ton compared with the previous period. - The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 16,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,200 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The butadiene production capacity in the current week was 15.93 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week compared with the previous period. - The butadiene capacity utilization rate in the current week was 76.28%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The butadiene port inventory at the end of the week was 39,100 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with the previous period. - The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.58%, an increase of 2.89 percentage points compared with the previous period. [2] 3.4 Production and Inventory of Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.99 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons compared with the previous period. - The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in the current week was 81.62%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber in the current week was - 1,424 yuan/ton, a decrease of 965 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 1.01 million tons compared with the previous period. - The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 34,400 tons, a decrease of 10,750 tons compared with the previous period. - The trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber at the end of the week was 9,020 tons, an increase of 700 tons compared with the previous period. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 74.03%, an increase of 39.47 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.9%, an increase of 36.73 percentage points compared with the previous period. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces compared with the previous period. - The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces compared with the previous period. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 45.79 days, a decrease of 1.25 days compared with the previous period. - The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 43.1 days, a decrease of 0.99 days compared with the previous period. [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.53%, a month - on - month increase of 43.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.28 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.38%, a month - on - month increase of 39.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33 percentage points. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. - As of March 4, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80%. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the raw material supply of refineries in Northeast Asia, resulting in reduced plant loads and a pulse - like increase in olefin products such as BD and BR. In the short term, prices are expected to rise, but if the situation eases, prices may fall. In the long - term, prices are still bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared, with spot prices ranging from 12,100 to 14,100 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in the market is mainly due to concerns about shipping delays in the Strait of Hormuz and reduced imported crude oil resources in East Asia after the continuous escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East. The increase in production costs has led to higher offer prices, and downstream terminal procurement has significantly followed up [6]. Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data unclear] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. During the week, plants such as Sierbang and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the maintenance of Gulei Petrochemical was slightly delayed, with no significant overall change in domestic production [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Most cis - butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, except that the high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Yanshan Petrochemical was not operating at full capacity [3]. Demand - **Semi - steel tires**: The market performance was relatively stable. After the Chinese New Year, there was regular replenishment in the domestic market. Individual dealer order fairs boosted the purchase demand of the distribution channels, and the retail purchase volume at the terminal increased significantly. Although exports were affected by the weakening markets in Europe and the Middle East, the EU has not yet implemented a temporary anti - dumping duty. The increase in raw material prices has led to increased cost pressure, and the expectation of price increases in the industry has risen, with some enterprises starting to withdraw price discounts for some specifications [3]. - **All - steel tires**: There was concentrated replenishment in the domestic market, and dealer order fairs boosted the enthusiasm for purchases. The overall purchase performance of the distribution channels was good. However, the export end was under significant pressure, with reduced shipments to the Middle East and European markets, and enterprises mainly focusing on Middle East orders faced greater pressure. The cost side was also supported by rising raw materials, narrowing the profit margins of enterprises, and there were increasing voices for price increases in the market. Subsequently, it is not ruled out that promotional policies will be tightened [3]. Inventory - **Butadiene**: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. Some suppliers sold their goods at high prices, leading to a decrease in inventory. With a small amount of ships arriving at the port and normal consumption of downstream raw materials, the port inventory did not fluctuate much, and it is expected that the import volume in March may not increase significantly [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The market negotiation center increased, and transactions increased significantly. The inventory of production enterprises decreased significantly, while the inventory of trading enterprises increased slightly. Last week, the combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 43,420 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80% [3]. Basis - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 960 yuan/ton, in East China was - 860 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 860 yuan/ton [3]. Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was - 1190 yuan/ton, the NR - BR spread was 2075 yuan/ton, and the BR - SC price ratio was - 2.04% [3]. Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was 2080 yuan/ton, and by C4 extraction was 2795.35 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 739 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 5.23% [3]. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - **Geopolitical conflicts**: The attack by the US and Israel on Iran led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp rise in crude oil and gold prices and violent fluctuations in global stock markets [3]. - **Chinese government policies**: The 2026 government work report set the GDP growth target at 4.5% - 5% and clearly focused on building emerging and future industries such as integrated circuits and low - altitude economy [3]. - **US policy trends**: The US plans to raise the global general tariff to 15% and nominate Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve [3]. - **Economic data**: China's manufacturing PMI in February fell to 49.0%, and the OECD warned that the issuance of government bonds by developed countries this year will reach a record high [3]. Investment Views - In the short term, prices are expected to rise. In the long - term, if the geopolitical situation eases, prices may fall, but in the medium - to - long - term, prices are still bullish [3]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm. - **Arbitrage**: Consider a long - BR and short - NR/RU layout [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The synthetic rubber market is expected to run strongly, with cost increases driving the upward trend. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to increased uncertainty in the crude oil and shipping sectors, driving up production costs and mainstream supply prices. The inventory of synthetic rubber is expected to decline, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term [2][4]. - The butadiene market is also expected to run strongly, with the improvement of the domestic butadiene fundamentals. The short - term supply of butadiene is affected by the maintenance of some devices, and the demand from downstream industries such as synthetic rubber, ABS, and SBS also shows different trends [5]. Summary by Directory Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: Most cis - butadiene rubber plants maintained high - load operation this week, with Yanshan Petrochemical's plant not at full load. Haopu New Materials and Zhejiang Transfar's cis - butadiene rubber plants are expected to be overhauled in mid - to late March. The capacity utilization rate of mainstream cis - butadiene rubber plants is expected to decline slightly next week [4]. - **Demand**: In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to increase slightly next week, but the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may limit the increase. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between NR - BR contracts has shrunk rapidly, and the substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to weaken rapidly [4]. - **Inventory**: As of March 4, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 43,400 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 18.80%. It is expected that the inventory of Chinese high - cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises will continue to decline next week [4]. - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 14,800 - 16,000 yuan/ton. The geopolitical conflict has increased speculative sentiment, and the upper - limit valuation pressure has decreased. The lower - limit valuation is supported by the cost line of cis - butadiene rubber [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, cis - butadiene rubber is expected to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts may increase the intraday volatility of the market, and investors are advised to manage risks [4]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is short - term bullish, with the upper pressure at 15,800 - 16,000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the position of short NR/RU and long BR is still in the driving stage and can be held [4]. Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint - **Supply**: The weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises this week was estimated to be 121,500 tons, with little change from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%. Next week, the weekly output is expected to be about 119,500 tons, a slight decrease from this week, mainly due to the maintenance plans of Gulei Petrochemical and Inner Mongolia Jiutai [5]. - **Demand**: In the medium term, the operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, maintaining a high - level demand for butadiene. In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants increases, the rigid demand for butadiene from synthetic rubber is expected to decline gradually. ABS has a large inventory pressure, and its demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited increment. The operating rate of SBS has increased slightly, and its demand for butadiene remains rigid with little change [5]. - **Inventory**: The domestic butadiene inventory decreased slightly this week, with the sample total inventory decreasing by 1.63% month - on - month. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 6.19% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory increased by 1.82% week - on - week. The market expects that the import volume in March may not increase significantly [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The price of butadiene in Asia is strong. Overall, the domestic butadiene fundamentals have improved, and butadiene is short - term bullish [5]. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and cis - butadiene, butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages. From 2024 to 2026, many new butadiene production capacities have been put into operation or are planned to be put into operation [12][14]. - **Supply - side - Operating Rate**: The report provides historical data on the weekly operating rate of Chinese butadiene, showing its changing trend over the years [16]. - **Supply - side - Production**: The report provides historical data on the weekly production of Chinese butadiene, showing its changing trend over the years [17]. - **Supply - side - Maintenance**: The report lists the maintenance situations of many butadiene production enterprises from 2024 to 2026, including the maintenance capacity, start - stop time, etc. [18]. - **Net Import Volume**: The report provides historical data on the monthly import and export volume of butadiene in China, as well as the net import volume and import profit situation [19][20][21]. - **Demand - side - Cis - Butadiene**: The capacity of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [24]. - **Demand - side - Styrene - Butadiene**: The capacity of styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 180,000 tons in 2025 and 100,000 tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [26][27]. - **Demand - side - Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Operating and Maintenance**: The report lists the operating and future maintenance plans of many styrene - butadiene rubber production enterprises [33]. - **Demand - side - ABS**: The capacity of ABS increased by an estimated 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [34][36]. - **Demand - side - SBS**: The capacity of SBS increased by 360,000 tons in 2025 and is expected to increase by 55,000 tons in 2026. The report lists the new production capacity situations of many enterprises [38][39]. - **Demand - side - ABS and SBS Fundamentals**: The report provides historical data on the weekly operating rate, daily net profit, weekly inventory of ABS polymers in China, and the weekly capacity utilization rate of SBS in China [41][42]. - **Inventory - side**: The report provides historical data on the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene in China [43][44][45]. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Production**: The report provides historical data on the weekly production and daily operating rate of Chinese high - cis - butadiene rubber, and lists the operating and future maintenance plans of many cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises [50][51]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Cost and Profit**: The report provides historical data on the daily theoretical production cost, daily theoretical production profit, and daily gross profit margin of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber [53][54][55]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Import and Export**: The report provides historical data on the monthly import and export volume of cis - butadiene rubber, as well as the weekly apparent demand of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber [57][58][59]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Inventory**: The report provides historical data on the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber [61][62]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires**: The report provides historical data on the inventory and operating rate of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province [63][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent downstream operating rate has declined, with an increase in domestic butadiene supply and a decrease in demand. However, the expected net imports have decreased, and port inventories are oscillating at a high level. The processing profit of the butadiene rubber industry has improved, and the continuous increase in the operation of raw material butadiene has led to an increase in butadiene production. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as logistics and downstream closures have jointly affected the inventory growth of domestic butadiene production and trading enterprises. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly rebounded month - on - month. After the festival, many tire enterprises have gradually resumed work, and production scheduling has gradually increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to rise significantly month - on - month. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the capacity utilization rate to continue to increase. Although the rigid demand consumption gradually recovers after the downstream gradually resumes work, the domestic butadiene supply is expected to have no significant reduction in the short term. Coupled with sufficient spot circulation resources and high inventory, the inventory pressure is expected to ease slowly. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,200 - 14,200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,825 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 295 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 32,970, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,543. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is - 55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 18,740 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 13,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 13,050 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 13,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 13,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 250 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 735 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 81.4 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 3.66 US dollars/barrel; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 780 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 US dollars/ton; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 636.63 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1320 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 US dollars/ton; the price of WTI crude oil is 74.56 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 3.33 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 11,250 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 550 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons/week, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.69%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.11 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 53,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 45,150 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,350 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,320 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,210 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 34.56%, with a month - on - month increase of 20.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 29.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.97 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.04 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reason for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly the seasonal fluctuations in the Spring Festival month. As of February 25, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the downstream operating rate has decreased, the supply of domestic butadiene has increased while demand has decreased, but the net import is expected to decline, and the port inventory is fluctuating at a high level. The processing profit of the butadiene rubber industry has improved, and the continuous increase in the operation of raw material butadiene has led to an increase in butadiene rubber production. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as logistics and downstream holidays have jointly affected the increase in the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly rebounded month - on - month. After the festival, many tire enterprises have gradually resumed work, and production scheduling has gradually increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to rise significantly month - on - month. The short - term capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the capacity utilization rate to continue to increase. Although the rigid demand consumption gradually recovers after the downstream gradually resumes work, the short - term domestic butadiene rubber supply is expected to have no significant reduction. Coupled with sufficient spot circulation resources and high inventory, the inventory pressure is expected to ease slowly. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 14,000 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 65 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 35,513, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,872. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 18,640 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 100 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,900 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of - 735 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 77.74 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 5.26 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 636.63 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 750 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1275 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 71.23 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 4.21 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in Shandong market is 10,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 425 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 51.69%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.11 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 53,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,600 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 45,150 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,350 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,320 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,210 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.04 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 days. As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 30.77%, with a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 26.04%, with a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reason for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly the seasonal fluctuations in the Spring Festival month. As of February 25, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The recent downstream operating rate has decreased, domestic butadiene supply has increased while demand has decreased, but the net import is expected to decline, and port inventories are fluctuating at a high level. The processing profit of the butadiene rubber industry has improved, and the continuous increase in the operation of raw material butadiene has led to an increase in butadiene rubber production. During the Spring Festival holiday, factors such as logistics and downstream closures have jointly affected the inventory growth of domestic butadiene rubber production and trading enterprises. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly rebounded month - on - month. After the festival, many tire enterprises have gradually resumed work, and production scheduling has gradually increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises to rise significantly month - on - month. The short - term capacity utilization rate is still in the stage of gradual recovery, which will drive the capacity utilization rate to continue to recover. Although the rigid demand consumption gradually recovers after the downstream gradually resumes work, the domestic butadiene rubber supply is expected to have no significant reduction in the short term. Coupled with sufficient spot circulation resources and high inventory, the inventory pressure is expected to ease slowly. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 14,000 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 13,465 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 835 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 39,385, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,367. The 4 - 5 spread of synthetic rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 18,540 tons, with no month - on - month change [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 12,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 12,400 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 12,550 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is 72.48 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is 67.02 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month increase of 1.81 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 710 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the CFR Japan price of naphtha is 636.63 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars/ton; the CFR China price of butadiene is 1,270 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 10,275 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 85 yuan/ton. The weekly butadiene production capacity is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate is 76.25%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points. The terminal port inventory of butadiene is 38,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation is 51.69%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63 percentage points [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 149,900 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 81.74%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.11 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 459 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton. The terminal social inventory of butadiene rubber is 53,500 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,600 tons; the terminal manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 45,150 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,350 tons; the terminal trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,320 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,210 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 34.56%, with a month - on - month increase of 20.32 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 29.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 14.97 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29 million pieces. The terminal inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.04 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.82 days; the terminal inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 44.09 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reasons for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 are mainly the seasonal fluctuations in February. As of February 25, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 53,500 tons, a significant increase of 19,600 tons compared with before the Spring Festival, a month - on - month increase of 57.68% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the inventory of synthetic rubber has increased, and the actual transactions are light. In the short - term, it may rise significantly due to the Middle East situation. In the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged with the resumption of production of downstream tire factories, the construction of overseas tire factory capacity, and the expected clearance of butadiene capacity [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of February 26, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 13,000 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was 13,000 - 13,150 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, the crude oil market rose sharply, and the change in US import tariff policy had potential positive sentiment for the export of downstream terminal products. The price increase of natural rubber after the festival also drove the active price - testing of butadiene rubber. However, due to high inventory and the expected increase in butadiene downstream maintenance in March, the cost support weakened, and the downstream procurement intention was low [4] 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [not clearly given] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [not clearly given]%; the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [not clearly given] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [not clearly given]%. Some butadiene plants restarted, and the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber increased to a high level [3] 3.2.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased significantly compared with the previous period. After the Spring Festival, many tire enterprises resumed work one after another, and the production scheduling was in the process of gradual improvement [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was [not clearly given] tons, with a [not clearly given] change; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was [not clearly given] tons, with a [not clearly given] change. The butadiene inventory increased slightly due to factors such as reduced imports and limited demand, and the butadiene rubber inventory continued to rise [3] 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 380 yuan/ton, in East China was - 280 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 280 yuan/ton [3] 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4525 yuan/ton; the NR - BR spread was 1135 yuan/ton; the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.36% [3] 3.2.6 Profit - The production profit of butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was 1780 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 3154.44 yuan/ton; the production profit of butadiene rubber was - 6 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 0.05% [3] 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory in the US increased significantly last week, and the fundamentals of crude oil/naphtha lacked positive support. The confrontation between the US and Iran was tense, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was at risk. The "Two Sessions" in China were about to be held. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia on the border restarted, which had positive sentiment support for natural rubber. Overseas petrochemical plants were gradually cleared, and the cost - side advantage would gradually appear in the medium - and long - term [3] 3.3 Investment Views and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Investment Views - In the short - term, it may rise significantly; in the long - term, the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged [3] 3.3.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt the idea of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm. Arbitrage: Arrange long BR and short NR/RU [3] 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Price Data - There are detailed price data of butadiene, butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber in different regions and from different companies, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8] 3.4.2 Correlation Analysis - There are correlation coefficient heat maps of price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties in 1 - month and 3 - month periods [9] 3.4.3 Equipment Conditions - There are information on the maintenance of butadiene and butadiene rubber production enterprises, including the maintenance capacity, parking time, and driving time. There are also details of the operation and future plans of butadiene and butadiene rubber plants in 2026 [10][11] 3.4.4 Spread and Seasonal Analysis - There are data and seasonal analysis on BR cross - variety spreads, month - to - month spreads, and price ratios [12][13][14] 3.4.5 Cost and Profit Analysis - There are cost and profit analysis of butadiene and butadiene rubber, including production costs, production profits, and their seasonal changes [51][52][57] 3.4.6 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - There are data on the production, consumption, and inventory of butadiene and butadiene rubber, as well as the production, inventory, and import and export data of styrene - butadiene rubber and downstream products such as tires and conveyor belts [44][45][49]