Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expected new tool of the central bank is likely different from the Fed's ONRRP, and narrowing the interest - rate corridor may have limited practical significance for the capital market. There is a possibility that the central bank will combine new tools with self - regulatory requirements to reduce the cost of banks absorbing non - bank inter - bank deposits [5][36][41]. - Affected by the Spring Festival, local government bond issuance in February is front - loaded. It is expected that the issuance scale of government bonds in February and March 2026 will be 2.15 trillion and 2.63 trillion respectively, and the net financing scale will be 1.38 trillion and 1.13 trillion respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 3.70 trillion, which may still be lower than the 4.1 trillion in the same period in 2025 [7][59]. - Next week, the pressure of the central bank's policy tool maturity and government bond payment is still high, and the cash - withdrawal demand may increase near the Spring Festival. However, considering the central bank's loose tone, it is expected that the capital market will remain stable [10][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Capital Market Review - OMO had a net injection of 5805 billion yuan this week. There was a 200 billion yuan MLF maturity on Monday, and the Ministry of Finance conducted a 150 billion yuan 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposit operation on Wednesday with the winning bid rate remaining at 1.73% for three consecutive months. The capital tightened marginally at the beginning of the week but loosened later, with DR001 falling to around 1.33% [3][16]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase declined continuously after Monday, and the overall scale of pledged repurchase rose oscillatingly before Thursday and dropped significantly on Friday. The net lending of large - scale banks fluctuated after a decline on Monday, while that of small and medium - sized banks rose continuously before Thursday and dropped on Friday but remained higher than last week. The overall net lending of banks fluctuated with a slightly lower center compared to last week. Non - bank rigid lending increased continuously, and non - bank rigid borrowing rose oscillatingly. The capital gap index rose on Monday, then declined continuously, and rose again on Friday. The season - adjusted index reached - 409.8 billion, slightly higher than - 496.1 billion last Friday, and the non - season - adjusted index was - 532.9 billion on Friday, still below the neutral level [4][24]. - The cross - month progress of the exchange market accelerated at the beginning of the week, and the gap compared with previous years was narrowing, but it was still relatively late overall. The cross - month progress of the inter - bank market institutions continued to lag, and the gap compared with previous years continued to widen, with more than 50% of the funds crossing the month on the last trading day. Overall, the institutions' cross - year progress was late, still at the latest level in the same period over the years, but the capital market remained loose at the end of the month under the central bank's support [4][28]. - The new tool expected by the central bank is likely different from the Fed's ONRRP. Narrowing the interest - rate corridor may mainly clarify existing rules and have limited practical significance for the capital market. There is a possibility that the central bank will combine new tools with self - regulatory requirements to reduce the cost of banks absorbing non - bank inter - bank deposits [5][36][41]. 1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - The issuance scale of 1 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds next week will drop to 130 billion and 120 billion respectively, and the treasury bond payment is expected to be about 245 billion yuan. The local government bond issuance scale of 15 regions such as Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Henan next week is 579.7 billion yuan, including 75.5 billion yuan of new general bonds, 134.3 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 369.9 billion yuan of refinancing bonds. The average issuance term of local government bonds in the first week of February decreased from 17.7 years in January to 16.1 years. Considering the time lag of payment, the actual payment scale of local government bonds is 478.7 billion yuan. The net payment scale of government bonds next week may drop to 460.4 billion yuan [6][43][45]. - Affected by the Spring Festival, local government bond issuance in February is front - loaded. It is expected that the local government bond issuance scale in February will reach 1.11 trillion yuan, and the treasury bond issuance scale will be 1.04 trillion yuan with a net financing of 420 billion yuan. The assumptions for government bond issuance in March remain unchanged. Overall, it is expected that the government bond issuance scale in February and March 2026 will be 2.15 trillion and 2.63 trillion respectively, and the net financing scale will be 1.38 trillion and 1.13 trillion respectively. The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds in the first quarter is about 3.70 trillion, which may still be lower than the 4.1 trillion in the same period in 2025 [7][56][59]. - The maturity scale of 7 - day reverse repurchase next week is 1761.5 billion yuan in total, and there will be a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month buy - out repurchase maturity on Friday. The net payment scale of government bonds will drop from 515 billion yuan this week to 460.4 billion yuan, mainly concentrated on Friday with a scale of 308.3 billion yuan. Next Thursday (the 5th) is the reserve payment day for the first ten - day period. The new stock of Aide Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange will be issued online on February 2nd, with the raised funds scale dropping to about 200 million yuan. Considering the central bank's loose tone, it is expected that the capital market will remain stable [63][68]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate decreased by 1.6 BP to 1.63% compared with January 23rd. The 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit secondary rate remained unchanged at 1.60% compared with last week [69]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased slightly less than the maturity scale this week, with a net repayment scale of 8.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 190 million yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 3 billion yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, - 6.13 billion yuan, and - 1.53 billion yuan respectively. The 3 - month certificate of deposit had the largest issuance volume, accounting for 42%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased by 14 pct to 30% compared with last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 13.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.3 billion yuan compared with this week [73]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks decreased compared with last week, while that of joint - stock banks increased. Except for the relatively low issuance success rate of joint - stock banks, each bank was near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed [76]. - The willingness of money market funds in the primary market and other institutions, wealth management products, and fund companies in the primary and secondary markets to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit decreased this week. The relative strength index of certificates of deposit continued to decline seasonally, dropping by 7.2 pct to 15.7%, still at a neutral level in the same period over the years. In terms of different terms, the supply - demand indexes of 3 - month and 9 - month certificates of deposit increased, while those of other term varieties decreased [84]. 3. Bill Market - This week, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, showing a narrow - range oscillation. As of January 30th, the 3 - month bill interest rate of state - owned and joint - stock banks remained unchanged at 1.45% compared with January 23rd, and the 6 - month bill interest rate decreased by 2 BP to 1.11% [91]. 4. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds oscillated in a narrow range, the yields of credit bonds declined slightly, and most credit spreads narrowed slightly. Large - scale banks tended to increase their bond holdings, especially showing a significant increase in the willingness to increase their holdings of treasury bonds. Trading - type institutions tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, with securities companies' willingness to reduce holdings increasing, fund companies' willingness to increase holdings decreasing, but other institutions and products' willingness to increase holdings increasing. Allocation - type institutions tended to reduce their bond holdings overall, with insurance companies' and wealth management products' willingness to increase holdings decreasing, and small and medium - sized banks' willingness to reduce holdings decreasing [92].