Group 1: Money Market Operations - In 2025, the average daily transaction volume of interbank lending was 361.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1% compared to 2024 [1] - The average daily transaction volume of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 6.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.0% compared to 2024 [1] - By the end of 2025, the outstanding balance of interbank lending was 1.0 trillion yuan, while the outstanding balance of bond repurchase in the interbank market was 12.0 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Bond Market Operations - In 2025, net financing for government bonds reached 1.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 250 billion yuan compared to 2024 [5] - Net financing for corporate bonds was 240 billion yuan, an increase of 48.23 billion yuan compared to 2024 [5] - The bond market's custody balance was 196.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [5] Group 3: Derivatives Market Operations - The transaction volume of the RMB derivatives market in the interbank market was 58.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 58.6% compared to 2024 [11] - The transaction volume of government bond futures was 9.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 43.9% compared to 2024 [11] - The closing price of the 10-year government bond futures main contract was 107.9 yuan, a decrease of 1.0% compared to the end of 2024 [11] Group 4: Commercial Paper Market Operations - In 2025, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 42.7 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 33.9 trillion yuan [13] - By the end of 2025, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 21.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2% compared to the end of 2024 [13] - The discount balance was 16.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.2% compared to the end of 2024 [13] Group 5: Stock Market Operations - By the end of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.8 points, an increase of 18.4% compared to the end of 2024 [15] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.0 points, an increase of 29.9% compared to the end of 2024 [15] - The average daily transaction volume of both markets was 1.70454 trillion yuan, an increase of 61.9% compared to 2024 [15] Group 6: Bond Market Holder Structure - As of the end of 2025, there were 3923 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [30] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total, mainly concentrated in state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [30] - The top 200 investors held 84.5% of the total bonds [30]

华福证券 2026 年 02 月 01 日 固 定 收 益 央行新工具意义何在 地方债发行放量期限压缩 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 260201 投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 5805 亿元，本周一有 2000 亿元 MLF 到期，周三财政部开展 1500 亿元 1M 国库现金定存操作，中标利率 连续 3 月维持在 1.73%。本周初 OMO 净投放规模有限，但 MLF 到期叠 加缴准以及政府债大量缴款，使得资金边际收紧，但此后外生扰动减弱， 临近月末央行投放规模也逐步增大，DR001 回落至 1.33%附近。 益 定 期 报 告 质押式回购成交量周一后持续回落；质押式回购整体规模周四前震荡 回升，周五明显回落。大型银行净融出在周一下行后维持震荡，中小型银 行净融出周四前持续上行，周五回落但仍高于上周；银行整体净融出维持 震荡，中枢较上周略有回落。非银刚性融出持续上升，其中货基、其他产 品、理财融出延续上升。非银刚性融入震荡上行，其中其他产品升幅较大。 资金缺口指数在周一上行后持续回落，但周五再度走高，季调后指数升至- 4098，略高于上周五的-4961，而季调前指数周五为- ...

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - From January 12 to 16, the liquidity showed unexpected fluctuations, with R001 rising from 1.35% to 1.49% and R007 exceeding 1.60% due to a lack of buyout reverse repos[1] - As of January 16, the bank's lending scale returned to over 5 trillion yuan, providing some support to the liquidity[3] - The expected liquidity gap for the upcoming tax period is approximately 2 trillion yuan, compounded by 1.1 trillion yuan of public market expirations and 0.25 trillion yuan of government debt payments, totaling over 3.3 trillion yuan[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Projections - The liquidity rates are expected to remain loose, similar to January 2024, due to structural interest rate cuts and a relatively late Spring Festival this year[2] - Historical trends show three liquidity patterns in January: tight (2021, 2025), slight convergence (2023), and relatively loose (2022, 2024)[2] - The central bank is likely to increase liquidity injections during the tax period to maintain market stability, with a reference to a net liquidity injection of about 1.5 trillion yuan in January 2024[3] Group 3: Public Market and Government Debt - From January 19 to 23, a total of 11.015 trillion yuan will expire in the public market, including 9.515 trillion yuan in reverse repos[4] - The estimated net payment for government bonds from January 19 to 23 is 2.465 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week's -0.485 trillion yuan[8] - The government bond issuance is accelerating, with a planned issuance of 7.066 trillion yuan for the week, compared to 2.818 trillion yuan the previous week[41] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit is decreasing, with 6,799 billion yuan maturing from January 19 to 23, down from 8,339 billion yuan the previous week[50] - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit increased to 1.65%, with significant contributions from state-owned and joint-stock banks[48]

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In November 2025, the bond market issued a total of 70,179.3 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including government bonds (10,444.2 billion yuan), local government bonds (9,126.9 billion yuan), financial bonds (11,955.0 billion yuan), corporate credit bonds (13,948.8 billion yuan), credit asset-backed securities (327.2 billion yuan), and interbank certificates of deposit (24,009.2 billion yuan) [1] - As of the end of November 2025, the bond market's custody balance reached 196.3 trillion yuan, with the interbank market holding 173.0 trillion yuan and the exchange market holding 23.2 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - In November 2025, the interbank bond market recorded a transaction volume of 30.5 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2] - The exchange bond market had a transaction volume of 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 188.7 billion yuan [2] - The commercial bank counter bond transactions totaled 860.4 billion yuan across 8.1 million transactions [2] Group 3: Foreign Participation - As of the end of November 2025, foreign institutions held a custody balance of 3.6 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, accounting for 1.9% of the total custody balance [2] - Among foreign holdings, 2.0 trillion yuan (56.2%) were in government bonds, 0.7 trillion yuan (19.1%) in interbank certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan (21.1%) in policy bank bonds [2] Group 4: Money Market Conditions - In November 2025, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% but a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [2] - The bond repurchase transactions totaled 149.8 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 6.8% but a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [2] Group 5: Interest Rates and Commercial Paper - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.42%, up by 2.5 basis points month-on-month, while the weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.44%, up by 3.2 basis points [3] - In November 2025, the commercial bill acceptance amount was 4.0 trillion yuan, and the discount amount was 3.1 trillion yuan [3] - As of the end of November 2025, the acceptance balance of commercial bills was 20.9 trillion yuan, and the discount balance was 16.2 trillion yuan [3] Group 6: Stock Market Performance - By the end of November 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, a decrease of 66.2 points or 1.7% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,984.1 points, down 394.1 points or 2.9% [3] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 808.5 billion yuan, down 16.0% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 1,089.8 billion yuan, down 7.9% month-on-month [3] Group 7: Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of November 2025, there were 3,987 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [4] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance financial institutions [4] - The top 200 investors accounted for 84.6% of the holdings, indicating a high concentration of ownership [4]

Group 1: Bond Market Issuance - In November, the bond market issued a total of 70,179.3 billion yuan across various types of bonds, including 10,444.2 billion yuan in government bonds, 9,126.9 billion yuan in local government bonds, 11,955.0 billion yuan in financial bonds, 13,948.8 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 327.2 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 24,009.2 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] Group 2: Bond Market Operation - In November, the interbank bond market had a total transaction volume of 30.5 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a month-on-month increase of 3.2% [2] - The exchange bond market recorded a transaction volume of 3.8 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 188.7 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of November, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market was 3.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 1.9% of the total custody balance [3] - Foreign institutions held 2.0 trillion yuan in government bonds, representing 56.2% of their total holdings [3] Group 4: Money Market Operation - In November, the interbank lending market had a transaction volume of 7.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.3% but a month-on-month increase of 9.6% [4] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.42%, up by 2.5 basis points month-on-month [4] Group 5: Bill Market Operation - In November, the acceptance amount of commercial bills was 4.0 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 3.1 trillion yuan [5] - Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.5% of all bill issuers, with a total bill issuance amount of 3.0 trillion yuan [5] Group 6: Stock Market Operation - By the end of November, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,888.6 points, a decrease of 66.2 points or 1.7% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 808.05 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 16.0% [6] Group 7: Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of November, there were 3,987 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [7] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 53.4% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among state-owned commercial banks, public funds, and insurance institutions [8]

Bond Market - In October, the bond market issued a total of 63,574.6 billion yuan in various bonds, including 11,695.5 billion yuan in government bonds, 5,604.7 billion yuan in local government bonds, 8,010.8 billion yuan in financial bonds, 11,836.2 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 343.4 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 25,649.0 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] - As of the end of October, the bond market's custody balance reached 194.6 trillion yuan, with 171.7 trillion yuan in the interbank market and 22.9 trillion yuan in the exchange market [1] - The custody balance for different bond types includes 39.4 trillion yuan in government bonds, 53.7 trillion yuan in local government bonds, 44.2 trillion yuan in financial bonds, 34.4 trillion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 1.0 trillion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 20.7 trillion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] Trading Activity - In October, the cash bond trading volume reached 26.6 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.9% [2] - The average transaction size was 4,177.69 million yuan, with transactions between 5 million and 50 million yuan accounting for 48.06% of the total trading amount [2] - Foreign institutions held a custody balance of 3.8 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, representing 1.9% of the total custody balance, with 2.0 trillion yuan in government bonds [2] Money Market - In October, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 6.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 26.7% [3] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.39%, down 6 basis points month-on-month [3] - The commercial bill acceptance amount was 3.9 trillion yuan, with small and micro enterprises accounting for 93.4% of the total bill issuers [3] Stock Market - By the end of October, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,954.8 points, up 72.0 points or 1.9% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,378.2 points, down 148.3 points or 1.1% [4] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 961.58 billion yuan, down 6.8% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 1,182.93 billion yuan, down 13.1% [4] - The interbank bond market had 3,987 institutional members, all of which were financial institutions, with the top 50 investors holding 53.2% of corporate credit bonds [4]

Group 1: Bond Market - In June, the bond market issued a total of 87,939.5 billion yuan in various bonds, including 15,903.9 billion yuan in government bonds, 11,753.2 billion yuan in local government bonds, 10,738.7 billion yuan in financial bonds, 14,257.3 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 247.2 billion yuan in asset-backed securities, and 34,569.3 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [1] - The interbank bond market saw a total transaction volume of 34.3 trillion yuan in June, with an average daily transaction of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a month-on-month increase of 6.2% [1] - As of the end of June, the custody balance of foreign institutions in the Chinese bond market reached 4.3 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total custody balance, with 4.2 trillion yuan held in the interbank bond market [1] Group 2: Money Market - In June, the interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 8.4 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 26.0% [2] - The bond repurchase transactions totaled 156.3 trillion yuan in June, showing a year-on-year growth of 32.7% and a month-on-month growth of 20.4% [2] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.46%, down 9 basis points month-on-month, while the weighted average interest rate for pledged repos was 1.50%, down 6 basis points month-on-month [2] Group 3: Commercial Paper Market - In June, the acceptance amount of commercial bills reached 3.5 trillion yuan, with a discount amount of 2.8 trillion yuan; by the end of June, the acceptance balance was 19.3 trillion yuan and the discount balance was 14.8 trillion yuan [2] - Small and micro enterprises accounted for 93.2% of the total bill issuers, with an issuance amount of 2.4 trillion yuan, representing 69.8% of the total issuance [2] - The number of small and micro enterprises involved in discounting was 12.1 million, making up 96.3% of all discounting enterprises, with a discount amount of 2.0 trillion yuan, which is 71.9% of the total discounting amount [2] Group 4: Stock Market - As of the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,444.4 points, up 96.9 points or 2.9% month-on-month, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,465.1 points, up 424.5 points or 4.2% month-on-month [2] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai market was 510.4 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.6%, while the Shenzhen market's average daily trading volume was 796.9 billion yuan, up 11.5% month-on-month [2] Group 5: Interbank Bond Market Participants - As of the end of June, there were 3,989 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions [3] - The top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds held 48.0% of the total bonds, primarily concentrated among public funds, large state-owned commercial banks, and insurance financial institutions [3] - The number of holders for a single corporate credit bond varied, with a maximum of 124 holders, a minimum of 1, an average of 12, and a median of 12; 88.4% of credit bonds had 20 or fewer holders [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported the financial market operations for June 2025, highlighting a bond market custody balance of 188.5 trillion yuan as of the end of June [1][2]. Bond Market Issuance - In June, the bond market issued a total of 87,939.5 billion yuan in various bonds, including 15,903.9 billion yuan in government bonds, 11,753.2 billion yuan in local government bonds, 10,738.7 billion yuan in financial bonds, 14,257.3 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 247.2 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 34,569.3 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [2]. Bond Market Operations - The interbank bond market saw a total transaction volume of 34.3 trillion yuan in June, with an average daily transaction of 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a month-on-month increase of 6.2% [3]. Foreign Participation in Bond Market - As of the end of June, foreign institutions held a custody balance of 4.3 trillion yuan in the Chinese bond market, accounting for 2.3% of the total custody balance [4]. Money Market Operations - The interbank lending market recorded a transaction volume of 8.4 trillion yuan in June, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% and a month-on-month increase of 26.0% [5]. Commercial Paper Market - In June, the acceptance amount of commercial bills reached 3.5 trillion yuan, while the discount amount was 2.8 trillion yuan, with small and micro enterprises accounting for 93.2% of all bill issuers [6]. Stock Market Performance - By the end of June, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,444.4 points, up 96.9 points or 2.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose to 10,465.1 points, an increase of 424.5 points or 4.2% [7]. Holder Structure in Interbank Bond Market - As of the end of June, there were 3,989 institutional members in the interbank bond market, all of which were financial institutions, with the top 50 investors in corporate credit bonds holding 48.0% of the total [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - During the tax period from July 14-18, liquidity tightened significantly, with overnight rates jumping approximately 10 basis points on the first day of the tax period, reaching 1.57% and 1.53% for R001 and DR001 respectively[1] - The central bank increased reverse repo operations, with daily net injections exceeding 300 billion, leading to a gradual recovery in market sentiment and a return of overnight rates below 1.5%[1] - By July 18, overnight rates settled at 1.49% and 1.46% for R001 and DR001, while 7-day rates approached 1.50%[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The central bank's supportive stance suggests that liquidity is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations, with overnight rates expected to return to around 1.4% and 7-day rates fluctuating around 1.50%[2] - A total of over 20 trillion yuan in public market maturities is expected next week, including 17,268 billion yuan in reverse repos and 2,000 billion yuan in MLF maturities[2] - The upcoming week will see a significant amount of certificates of deposit maturing, with a total of 10,699 billion yuan, but the impact on liquidity is expected to be limited due to manageable bank liabilities[2] Group 3: Public Market and Government Bonds - From July 14-18, the central bank's net injection in the public market was 12,011 billion yuan, with reverse repos contributing 13,011 billion yuan[3] - Government bond net payments are projected to decrease to 2,399 billion yuan for the week of July 21-25, with a notable increase in local government bond payments[5] - The issuance of government bonds is set to rise significantly, with planned issuance of 7,508 billion yuan, including 3,750 billion yuan in national bonds and 3,758 billion yuan in local bonds[5] Group 4: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit rose to 1.62%, reflecting a 1 basis point increase from the previous week[6] - The pressure from maturing certificates of deposit is expected to rise, with 10,699 billion yuan maturing in the week of July 21-25, marking a relative high for the year[6] - The overall market for certificates of deposit is showing signs of tightening, with a decrease in the proportion of longer-term issuances[6]

一、债券市场发行情况 3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债 券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券¹发行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行 40686.2亿元。 截至3月末，债券市场托管余额183.1万亿元。其中，银行间市场托管余额161.8万亿元，交易所市场托管余额 21.3万亿元。分券种来看，国债托管余额35.3万亿元，地方政府债券托管余额49.8万亿元，金融债券托管余额 41.5万亿元，公司信用类债券托管余额33.1万亿元，信贷资产支持证券托管余额1.1万亿元，同业存单托管余额 21.2万亿元。商业银行柜台债券托管余额1649.0亿元。 二、债券市场运行情况 3月份，银行间债券市场现券成交36.5万亿元，日均成交1.7万亿元，同比减少6.7%，环比增加22.1%。单笔成 交量在500 万 -5000万元的交易占总成交金额的49.8%，单笔成交量在9000万元以上的交易占总成交金额的 44.0%，单笔平均成交量4198.0万元。交易所债券市场现券成交3.6万亿元，日均成交1718.4亿元。 ...