That news followed Sprouts’ stunning disclosure last October that its quarterly same-store sales growth had plummeted to 5.9% from more than 10% during the prior quarter. Clearly shell-shocked by the emerging evidence of the company’s decelerating sales momentum, investors hammered Sprouts once-highflying stock, which fell by 25% on Oct. 20, 2025, the day after the announcement.As the company’s latest quarterly earnings report last week put into stark relief, however, Sprouts’ bull run is over. The grocer’s ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 在个股方面，高盛持续看好即制饮品行业龙头古茗(01364)及蜜雪集团(02097)，将古茗目标价上调至34 港元，给予"确信买入"评级；将蜜雪集团目标价调整至493港元，给予"买入"评级。该行尤其看好古 茗，指出其过往在消费场景拓展及新产品推出方面表现强劲，门店仍具备较大扩张空间，同时上调古茗 2025至2027年核心盈利预测4%至6%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 高盛发布研报称，预期2026年内地餐饮销售同比增长4.2%，增速较2025年的3.2%有所加快。该行观察 到，尽管当前整体消费尚未出现显著好转，但过去数月餐饮需求已趋于稳定。同时，餐饮行业出现加价 情况，该行认为此举是为应对营运及原材料成本上升、外卖订单占比增加，需求回稳也为此举提供了支 撑。 针对即制饮品企业，该行表示，2026年第二至第三季，行业将面临同店销售增长的高基数挑战。不过年 初至今外卖补贴水平较预期更高，叠加产品种类扩张、消费场景进一步丰富，将为同店销售增长提供支 撑。但外卖订单占比上升可能对企业盈利能力及门店运营产生负面影响，相关品牌或需提 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Goldman Sachs expects a faster growth in mainland China's restaurant sales, projecting a year-on-year increase of 4.2% this year, surpassing last year's growth of 3.2% [1] - Despite the overall consumer spending not showing significant improvement, the restaurant demand has stabilized over the past few months [1] - The industry is experiencing price increases, which are believed to be a response to rising operational and raw material costs, as well as an increase in the proportion of takeaway orders supported by recovering demand [1] Group 2 - For ready-to-drink beverage companies, the second to third quarters of this year will face challenges due to high comparable sales growth from the previous year [1] - However, the current level of takeaway subsidies is higher than expected, along with product variety expansion and richer consumption scenarios, which support same-store sales growth [1] - The rising proportion of takeaway orders may negatively impact profitability and store performance, potentially requiring brands to provide support or subsidies [1] Group 3 - The company continues to be optimistic about leading players in the ready-to-drink beverage industry, including Gu Ming (01364) and Mixue Group (02097) [1] - The target price for Gu Ming has been raised to 34 HKD, while the target price for Mixue has been adjusted to 493 HKD, with ratings of "Confident Buy" and "Buy" respectively, particularly favoring Gu Ming [1]

Core Insights - Dutch Bros Inc. is set to release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 12, with a strong history of earnings surprises, averaging a 91.9% surprise over the last four quarters [2]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 10 cents, reflecting a 42.9% increase from 7 cents in the same quarter last year [3]. - The consensus estimate for fourth-quarter revenues is $426.8 million, indicating a 24.5% growth compared to the previous year's figure [3]. Revenue Drivers - Revenue growth in Q4 2025 is expected to be supported by sustained same-shop sales growth, operational improvements, and strong traffic trends [4]. - Increased engagement through digital channels and the loyalty program has contributed to revenue, with Order Ahead adoption rising, particularly in newer markets [5]. - Menu innovation and the expansion of the hot food program are anticipated to provide additional revenue boosts, with successful seasonal offerings driving traffic [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenues from company-operated shops are projected at $397 million, up from $314 million in the prior-year quarter, while franchising and other revenues are expected to reach $30.5 million compared to $28.6 million last year [7]. Profitability Factors - The bottom-line performance is likely to benefit from operating leverage due to higher sales volumes and disciplined expense management, despite pressures from elevated coffee costs and expenses related to food rollout [8]. - Improved labor efficiency and SG&A leverage from scale are expected to support profitability, allowing for adjusted earnings growth while continuing investments in new shops and long-term initiatives [8]. Earnings Outlook - The model does not predict an earnings beat for Dutch Bros this time, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [9][10].

中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 Food & Life Companies 3563 JP 日本消费品行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 营收基础支撑上行趋势 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 7 日发布的题为《Revenue foundations fuel upswing》的报告，Food & Life Companies（F&LC）公司的一季度销售额同比增长 24%，营业利润 增长 45%，分别较市场一致预期高出 6%/21%，甚至超越市场最高预期 14%，主要得益于强劲的海外销售及利润率 改善。日本国内同店基础销售额显著增长，预示 2026 年的第二至四季度同店销售额将维持 6-10%的同比增速，足以 抵消大米价格上涨及日本用工成本上升的影响。下一阶段催化因素可能包括中国市场的进一步 ...

报告指出，随着负债比率与资本开支逐步下降，加上租金收入保持增长，恒隆地产有机会自2026年起提 供纯现金股息，预期收益率约5.6%。公司目前正物色行政总裁继任人选，现任CEO将于2026年8月退休 后转任顾问职务。 花旗发布研报称，维持恒隆地产(00101)"买入"评级，目标价由10.1港元上调至11.2港元。该行认为公司 2026年中国内地同店销售增长(SSSG)约5%至7%的增长目标存在上行空间，预计2025年第四季SSSG同 比增长18%创历史高，主要受惠于非奢华品类组合持续丰富、2025年下半年一系列新旗舰店陆续开幕， 以及多项吸引客流与提升顾客回头率的举措。 该行预测，集团2026至2028年盈利复合年增长率可达4.5%，主要动力来自中国零售租金预计录得约5% 的增长、杭州零售与写字楼项目于2029年全面营运后收入有望超过10亿元人民币(为租金收入带来约 10%增幅)，以及总融资成本受利率环境与债务减少所支持。不过，因资本化利息下降，预计2026年盈 利将同比微跌1%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，维持恒隆地产(00101)"买入"评级，目标价由10.1港元上调至11.2 港元。该行认为公司2026年中国内地同店销售增长(SSSG)约5%至7%的增长目标存在上行空间，预计 2025年第四季SSSG同比增长18%创历史高，主要受惠于非奢华品类组合持续丰富、2025年下半年一系 列新旗舰店陆续开幕，以及多项吸引客流与提升顾客回头率的举措。 该行预测，集团2026至2028年盈利复合年增长率可达4.5%，主要动力来自中国零售租金预计录得约5% 的增长、杭州零售与写字楼项目于2029年全面营运后收入有望超过10亿元人民币(为租金收入带来约 10%增幅)，以及总融资成本受利率环境与债务减少所支持。不过，因资本化利息下降，预计2026年盈 利将同比微跌1%。 报告指出，随着负债比率与资本开支逐步下降，加上租金收入保持增长，恒隆地产有机会自2026年起提 供纯现金股息，预期收益率约5.6%。公司目前正物色行政总裁继任人选，现任CEO将于2026年8月退休 后转任顾问职务。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Luk Fook Holdings (00590) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 5%, with a cumulative rise of more than 35% within the month, currently trading at HKD 31.96 with a transaction volume of HKD 81.70 million [1] - The company reported a same-store sales growth of 15% year-on-year for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending in December 2026, with mainland China showing a growth of 7% and markets outside mainland China growing by 16%, indicating an accelerating trend compared to the previous quarter [1] - CICC noted that the growth in the last quarter exceeded expectations, while Cinda Securities attributed the faster same-store sales growth outside mainland China to the price advantage of products in Hong Kong and Macau, concert events, and the appreciation of the Renminbi, which boosted sales and tourist flow from mainland China [1] Group 2 - Despite gold prices reaching new highs in December 2025, consumer adaptation to high gold prices has not significantly impacted sales, with expectations for better same-store sales performance from January 1 to January 7, 2026, compared to the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Luk Fook Holdings (00590) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 35% in the month, with a current rise of 5.83% to HKD 31.96, and a trading volume of HKD 81.70 million [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - For the third quarter of the fiscal year ending December 2026, the company's overall same-store sales increased by 15% year-on-year, with mainland China growing by 7% and markets outside mainland China growing by 16% [1] - The sales growth in markets outside mainland China is attributed to the price advantage of products in Hong Kong and Macau, concert events, and the appreciation of the Renminbi, which has boosted tourist flow and sales from mainland China [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite gold prices reaching new highs in December 2025, consumer behavior has adapted to high gold prices, resulting in no significant impact on sales [1] - The company anticipates that overall same-store sales for the period from January 1 to January 7, 2026, will be better than those in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Lao Pu Gold (06181) has risen over 3%, currently at 687.5 HKD, with a trading volume of 295 million HKD, following a UBS research report highlighting management's confidence in maintaining a gross margin of 40% for the year despite previous declines [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS reports that management anticipates a decline in gross margin in the second half of last year compared to the first half, but after a price increase at the end of October, the gross margin has rebounded to 40% [1] - Management is optimistic about achieving year-on-year improvement in gross margin, assuming a moderate increase in gold prices this year [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The management team emphasized the importance of channel upgrades in the domestic market, which includes expanding existing store sizes, relocating to better positions within the same shopping malls, or adding sales points in the same malls [1] - Currently, 5 to 6 shopping malls are undergoing channel upgrades [1] - The management reiterated the goal of opening 4 to 5 new stores outside mainland China this year, including a second store at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore and a new store in Tokyo [1] Group 3: Market Insights - The gross margin in the Hong Kong and Macau markets is slightly higher than that in mainland China due to lower tax rates [1] - UBS anticipates that despite high comparatives around the Chinese New Year, better-than-expected same-store sales growth could serve as a potential positive catalyst [2]