周大福(01929)跌近3%，截至发稿，跌2.7%，报12.24港元，成交额8288.48万港元。 此外，近期周大福系内出现股权架构变动，据港交所披露权益信息显示，郑家纯家族旗下周大福资本将 所持周大福珠宝近54%股权，转让予一家由周大福企业和周大福资本分别持有65%和35%股权的子公司 Beyond Luck Limited持有。此次股权重组旨在强化周大福系资本结构，从而释放业务价值，周大福企业 将成为家族核心业务周大福珠宝、周大福创建及新世界的母公司。 消息面上，继10月底上调后，12月17日，周大福天猫官方旗舰店首页不显眼的位置发布了一条提示：受 市场因素影响，部分商品即将提价。而调价窗口就是12月19日。值得关注的是，如果算上3月份和10月 份的提价，这也是周大福在今年对一口价黄金产品的第三次提价。 ...

消息面上，继10月底上调后，12月17日，周大福天猫官方旗舰店首页不显眼的位置发布了一条提示：受 市场因素影响，部分商品即将提价。而调价窗口就是12月19日。值得关注的是，如果算上3月份和10月 份的提价，这也是周大福在今年对一口价黄金产品的第三次提价。 此外，近期周大福系内出现股权架构变动，据港交所披露权益信息显示，郑家纯家族旗下周大福资本将 所持周大福珠宝近54%股权，转让予一家由周大福企业和周大福资本分别持有65%和35%股权的子公司 Beyond Luck Limited持有。此次股权重组旨在强化周大福系资本结构，从而释放业务价值，周大福企业 将成为家族核心业务周大福珠宝、周大福创建及新世界的母公司。 智通财经APP获悉，周大福(01929)跌近3%，截至发稿，跌2.7%，报12.24港元，成交额8288.48万港元。 ...

继10月底上调后，12月17日，周大福天猫官方旗舰店首页不显眼的位置发布了一条提示：受市场因素影 响，部分商品即将提价。而调价窗口就是12月19日。 如果算上3月份和10月份的提价，这已是周大福在今年对一口价黄金产品的第三次提价。 今年3月，周大福上调了一口价黄金产品，调价幅度为10%-20%。10月底，周大福再次上调价格。根据 当时周大福官方预计，大多数产品的提价幅度在12%至18%之间，而这一调整主要基于国际金价持续上 涨带来的成本压力。 不过从实际涨价情况来看，部分畅销款一口价黄金产品的实际涨幅超过30%。如27克左右的爆款五帝钱 盘缠手串，价格从38600元上调至50800元，从标价来看上涨幅度为31.6%。 而根据周大福柜姐晒出的新价签，明天上调之后的新价格为53800元。一位网友说，今年1月买的算上折 扣总共花了两万多，"没想到一年不到升值了2倍多。" 最近一周，周大福各大门店已经陆续收到了新价签。根据柜姐在小红书陆续晒出的新旧标签，大部分产 品上调的幅度在4%-15%之间。 51.49克的周大福如意摆件，涨价前标签价89800元，新标签价为95800元，前后涨了6000元；39.97克的 唐钗， ...

今年3月，周大福上调了一口价黄金产品，调价幅度为10%-20%。10月底，周大福再次上调价格。根据 当时周大福官方预计，大多数产品的提价幅度在12%至18%之间，而这一调整主要基于国际金价持续上 涨带来的成本压力。 继10月底上调后，12月17日，周大福天猫官方旗舰店首页不显眼的位置发布了一条提示：受市场因素影 响，部分商品即将提价。而调价窗口就是12月19日。 如果算上3月份和10月份的提价，这也是周大福在今年对一口价黄金产品的第三次提价。 不过从实际涨价情况来看，部分畅销款一口价黄金产品的实际涨幅超过30%。如27克左右的爆款五帝钱 盘缠手串，价格从38600元上调至50800元，从标价来看上涨幅度为31.6%。 而根据周大福柜姐晒出的新价签，本周五上调之后的新价格为53800元。一位网友说，今年1月买的算上 折扣总共花了两万多，"没想到一年不到升值了2倍多。" 最近一周，周大福各大门店已经陆续收到了新价签。根据柜姐在小红书陆续晒出的新旧标签，大部分产 品上调的幅度在4%-15%之间。 各位小主们周大福涨价新标签已到! △ 趁涨价前 ~ 赶紧冲一冲,比算克重还值,买到就是 则兼 深圳周大福 关注 新一轮涨 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that non-member jewelry enterprises face increased profit pressure in the short term, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are relatively less affected. In the long term, industry concentration is expected to increase, with brands possessing pricing power showing stronger performance resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges, exempting the selling party from VAT during the transaction phase [1]. - The new policy allows for "immediate collection and refund" for investment gold used for investment purposes, while non-investment gold will be exempt from VAT and can be taxed at a 6% deduction rate [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in tax policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in non-exchange investment gold demand, benefiting top-tier enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, such as Caibai Co., China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2]. - Non-member jewelry brands, which rely heavily on member suppliers for raw materials, will face increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressure. However, the long-term outlook suggests that demand concentration may boost sales for leading enterprises as smaller firms exit the market [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies with Shanghai Gold Exchange membership and investment gold operations are likely to benefit from the trend towards market concentration [1]. - Jewelry enterprises with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products and stable high-end customer bases may present short-term investment opportunities due to potential market corrections [1].

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Tax Policy Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the new gold tax policy in the jewelry industry, particularly focusing on the implications for retail brands and加盟商 (franchisees) in the gold market [1][3][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **New Tax Policy Implementation** - The new policy mandates that all gold raw materials must be procured through exchanges and taxed, aiming to close loopholes in the previous external procurement chain and enhance industry compliance. This is expected to significantly increase overall tax revenue in the long term [1][4]. 2. **Differentiated Tax Rates** - Investment gold purchased from member units incurs a 13% VAT, while non-member units face a 7% VAT. This aims to steer investment towards financial products like ETFs rather than physical gold [1][5]. 3. **Impact on Retail Prices** - Jewelry retail brands have raised prices by 6-7% to cope with increased costs due to the new tax burden. Brands like 周大福 (Chow Tai Fook) and 周生生 (Chow Sang Sang) may focus on fixed-price products to maintain sales [1][7][8]. 4. **Market Reactions** - The retail market has seen varied responses, with first-tier cities performing well while third and fourth-tier cities struggle due to limited consumer spending power. Some加盟商 are considering closing stores in lower-tier markets [1][14]. 5. **Gold Recovery Prices** - Recent trends show a decrease in gold recovery prices and an increase in selling prices, driven by expectations of higher tax burdens on gold procurement [2][15]. 6. **Long-term Industry Effects** - The new regulations are expected to create a more transparent and compliant market, although they may initially pressure brands. Over time, this could enhance overall market competitiveness [11][19]. 7. **Consumer Acceptance of Price Increases** - Consumer acceptance of price hikes is anticipated to improve over time, with some brands already experiencing significant sales growth despite the increases [8][34]. 8. **Regulatory Compliance and Supply Chain Adjustments** - Brands may need to adjust their supply chain and pricing strategies to comply with the new regulations, potentially leading to a more standardized procurement process [6][17][25]. 9. **Impact on Second-hand Market** - The second-hand gold jewelry market is less affected by the new policy due to its reliance on private transactions, making regulatory enforcement challenging [18]. 10. **Future Tax Considerations** - There is speculation about whether other precious materials like platinum and diamonds will face similar regulatory scrutiny, but currently, no such policies are in place [22]. Other Important Insights - The new policy aims to reduce gray areas in the market and improve tax collection efficiency through better regulation of sales data [12][13]. - The policy's focus on compliance is expected to phase out non-compliant practices over time, leading to a healthier market environment [4][11]. - The differences in enforcement of tax regulations across regions may lead to varying impacts on local markets [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of the conference call regarding the new gold tax policy and its implications for the jewelry industry, highlighting both immediate and long-term effects on market dynamics and consumer behavior.

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [5] Core Insights - The new tax policy effective from November 1, 2025, will eliminate tax arbitrage for investment gold sales, leading to a concentration of demand towards leading enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2][3] - Non-investment gold jewelry sales enterprises will face short-term profit pressure due to changes in tax policies, but long-term benefits are expected for industry leaders with pricing power [2][3] - The shift in tax policy is anticipated to improve cash flow for larger jewelry enterprises while putting pressure on smaller firms, potentially leading to market consolidation [3] Summary by Sections Event Background - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchange, with specific tax exemptions and requirements for different types of transactions [1] Industry Impact - Investment gold sales enterprises will see a shift in demand towards top-tier companies due to the elimination of tax arbitrage, benefiting firms like Cai Bai, China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2] - Non-investment gold jewelry firms will experience increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressures, while larger firms with pricing power may benefit in the long run [2][3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term profit pressures are expected for non-member jewelry enterprises, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are likely to be less affected. Long-term, the industry concentration is expected to increase, favoring brands with pricing power [3] - Recommended to focus on member enterprises engaged in investment gold business and those with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products, such as Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [3]

Group 1 - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [2] - New home prices in Beijing increased month-on-month in September [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange is expanding the scope of qualified foreign investors to participate in commodity futures and options trading [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission supports market-driven regulatory compliance for digital asset funds and tokenized funds [2] - The "Beijing Wind Energy Declaration 2.0" was released, setting a target to double installed capacity over the next five years [2] - Chow Tai Fook will implement its second price adjustment of the year, raising the price of "one-price" gold products by approximately 12% to 18% [2] Group 3 - Yushutech unveiled its latest robot, which stands 180 cm tall and weighs 70 kg [2] - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq up 1.37% and Apple rising nearly 4% to reach a historic high [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 2.39% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook plans to raise retail prices for gold products by 12%-18% at the end of October due to the continuous increase in gold prices affecting costs [1] Group 1: Price Adjustment - Chow Tai Fook will implement a price increase for gold products, with most products seeing a price hike of 12%-18% [1] - This marks the second price increase for Chow Tai Fook's products this year, following a previous adjustment of 10%-20% in March [1] Group 2: Market Response - As of October 20, several key products on Chow Tai Fook's Tmall flagship store were either sold out or taken down, indicating a preemptive response from consumers to the anticipated price increase [1] - Many customers are reportedly purchasing products before the price hike, leading to shortages of popular items like the "Five Emperors Money Gold Bracelet" [1] Group 3: Gold Price Trends - The price of gold has risen significantly this year, from 836 RMB per gram to 1262 RMB per gram, representing an increase of nearly 51% within less than a year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail sector, indicating expected performance above the market index [3][41]. Core Views - The overall consumption growth remains stable, with retail sales in August 2025 reaching CNY 3.97 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The growth in commodity retail sales was 3.6%, while catering revenue grew by 2.1% [1][14]. - The report highlights that individual stock performance will be more significant than overall industry trends in the current market environment, emphasizing the importance of stock selection [1][11]. Summary by Sections Beauty and Personal Care - The third quarter is typically a slow season for the cosmetics industry, but marketing efforts have been advanced in preparation for Q4 promotions. Despite a supportive year-on-year growth forecast, rising online channel costs and a lack of product innovation are expected to increase expense ratios, leading to continued stock differentiation within the sector [1][12]. Gold and Jewelry - In August 2025, the gold and jewelry sector saw a retail sales increase of 16.8% year-on-year. The sector is expected to perform well due to low base effects and rising gold prices. Products that appeal to younger consumers, such as fixed-price gold items, are anticipated to see growth above the industry average [1][12]. Supermarkets and Department Stores - From January to August 2025, department store retail sales slightly increased by 1.2%, while supermarket sales grew by 4.9%. The sector is undergoing a transformation, and companies are expected to stabilize their performance in the second half of the year, setting the stage for a potential rebound in 2026 [2][12]. Cross-Border E-commerce - Major companies in the cross-border e-commerce sector are expected to benefit from steady overseas demand and domestic product innovation. However, profit margins may vary due to external environmental disruptions. Leading domestic platforms are seen as resilient against risks due to their strong product capabilities and flexible tariff strategies [2][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies across different segments, including: - Beauty and Personal Care: Upgrading products and refining channel operations are expected to enhance market share for domestic leaders like Shiseido, Aokang Technology, and others [3][41]. - Gold and Jewelry: Companies focusing on differentiated designs and fixed-price products, such as Chow Tai Fook and Man Ka Long, are expected to benefit from current market conditions [3][41]. - Offline Retail: Companies like Miniso and Yonghui Supermarket are highlighted for their potential to improve performance amid a stable domestic demand environment [3][41]. - Cross-Border E-commerce: Companies with strong risk resilience, such as Small Commodity City and Focus Technology, are recommended for investment during market dips [3][41].