名义GDP增长率

Search documents
北大汇丰智库:2025年赤字、债务及中国财政可持续性研究报告
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 02:48
Group 1 - The report defines fiscal sustainability as the long-term stability or decline of the debt-to-GDP ratio, or the future public revenue being sufficient to cover all public expenditures and accumulated debt [1][14]. - As of the end of 2023, China's explicit government debt reached 56.14% of GDP, while implicit debt accounted for 11.34%, leading to a total debt of 67.48% of GDP. Local government financing platform debt constituted 57.24% of GDP [2][16]. - The report emphasizes that maintaining fiscal sustainability does not require a zero deficit, but rather that the deficit should not exceed sustainable thresholds to avoid increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio [2][14]. Group 2 - The report highlights that reasonable uses of debt include infrastructure construction and counter-cyclical adjustments, but long-term reliance on debt for regular expenditures is unsustainable [3][20]. - Key factors for fiscal sustainability include economic growth and inflation, with nominal GDP growth being crucial. The report warns against deflation, which could exacerbate debt burdens [4][15]. - Structural reforms are necessary, including reducing administrative expenditures, optimizing the tax system, and improving social security systems to narrow structural deficits [4][5]. Group 3 - The report suggests that China should learn from international experiences, such as the EU's establishment of debt and deficit warning lines, to assess long-term risks while controlling debt levels [6]. - It emphasizes that China's fiscal issues are fundamentally structural, requiring tax optimization, expenditure restructuring, and market-oriented reforms for sustainable fiscal and economic interaction [6][24]. - The report concludes that while challenges such as high local debt and slowing growth exist, a reasonable policy mix can prevent a debt crisis and lay the foundation for long-term development [6].