美国政府关门风险再现，德银揭示三大"隐形风险"：经济增长首当其冲，每周可能拖累GDP达0.2个百分点；其次是关键经济数据发布中断，让美联储和 市场陷入决策"数据黑洞"；最后，数据真空还会对通胀保值债券（TIPS）等金融工具产生具体的技术性冲击。所幸此次僵局不涉及债务上限，避免了系 统性违约风险。 德意志银行在9月26日发布的一份报告显示，虽然此次关门不会引发2013年那种迫在眉睫的债务违约恐慌，但其对经济增长的直接拖累、对关键经济数 据的干扰，以及对特定金融工具的技术性影响，构成了投资者真正需要警惕的"隐形风险"。 该行测算，一次全面美国的政府关门，若导致80万联邦雇员休假，将使季度年化实际GDP增长每周减少约0.2个百分点。而市场和美联储将面临关键经 济数据如就业和CPI报告的发布延迟。 不过，与2013年不同，此次僵局不涉及债务上限问题。这意味着投资者无需担忧美国政府"违约"这一系统性风险。 "每周0.2个百分点"：对GDP的直接拖累 政府关门的经济代价是明确且可以量化的。报告解释称，美国经济分析局会将联邦雇员因休假而损失的工作时间，计为"联邦政府消费支出"的减少，从 而直接拉低GDP。 "数据黑洞"：美 ...

[ 美国政府的债务结构以短期债务为主，超过22%的现有债务将在2025财年内到期，78%将在10年内到 期。 ] 债务问题作为当代全球经济体系的核心挑战，已深刻影响金融稳定、地缘政治格局以及市场动态。这一 问题并非突发事件，而是长期财政政策失衡、生产力下降以及货币体系脆弱性的结果。美国作为世界最 大经济体，其公共债务从20世纪中叶的相对可控水平，迅速膨胀至当今的庞大规模，不仅考验国内经济 韧性，还波及国际贸易、货币霸权和安全格局。2025年9月的数据显示，美国联邦债务总额已达37.3万 亿美元，债务/GDP比率超过119%，远高于国际货币基金组织（IMF）建议的发达国家阈值 （60%~80%）。这一危机通过债券市场收益率上升、全球去美元化趋势以及地缘政治紧张显现，预示 着潜在的货币体系重置。理解债务危机的成因、表现和潜在后果，对于投资者、经济学家和政策制定者 而言至关重要。 债务危机的成因分析 美国联邦债务的快速增长主要缘于长期的预算赤字。自2001年以来，美国政府几乎每年都出现赤字， 2025财年的预计赤字为1.9万亿美元，相当于GDP的6%。赤字的来源包括税收减少、支出增长和经济波 动。特朗普政府于201 ...

今年以来，我省共发行政府债券270.22亿元用于补充政府性基金财力，显著增强政府预算统筹能力和财 政可持续性；发行政府债券1147.78亿元用于置换存量隐性债务，在优化债务期限结构、降低存量债务 融资成本、缓释短期偿债压力、平滑财政支出节奏等方面发挥了积极作用。（记者 曾鸣） 责任编辑： 何山 其中，7年期再融资专项债券98.7985亿元，发行利率1.94%，用于偿还到期债券的部分本金；20年期新 增专项债券134.0174亿元，发行利率2.37%，用于存量政府投资项目；30年期新增专项债券53.3193亿 元，发行利率2.37%，用于补充政府性基金财力；30年期再融资专项债券97.0166亿元，发行利率 2.37%，用于置换存量隐性债务。 9月22日，记者从省财政厅获悉，近日，我省在深圳成功发行政府债券383.1518亿元。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月25日，美国财政部拍卖四周期国债，得标利率4.080%，投标倍数2.61。拍卖八周期国 债，得标利率4%，投标倍数2.65。 ...

Core Insights - Bishkek contributes 44.6% of the national GDP, indicating its significant role in the country's economy [1] Economic Performance - The industrial output of Bishkek reached 61.3 billion som (approximately 700 million USD) [1] - Fixed asset investments totaled 29.45 billion som (approximately 340 million USD) [1] - The construction sector's total output increased by 1.6 times [1] - The average nominal wage in the city reached 53,139 som (approximately 610 USD), reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.7% [1] - A total of 21,181 new jobs were created during the period [1] Budgetary Performance - Local budget revenue amounted to 12.7 billion som (approximately 150 million USD), with tax revenue contributing 9.4 billion som (approximately 110 million USD) [1] - Tax revenue exceeded the planned target by 7.7% and showed a year-on-year growth of 22.4% [1] - Budget expenditures reached 7.6 billion som (approximately 87 million USD), marking a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1] Investment Projects - The city government actively promoted investment, successfully implementing large projects such as a waste-to-energy project (95 million USD) and a comprehensive building project at the Ak-Kula racetrack site (300 million USD) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's fiscal budget application for FY2025 has reached a record 122.4 trillion yen (approximately 822 billion USD), reflecting a 4.1% increase from the previous year, driven by rising defense spending and debt financing costs [1] Group 1: Budget Application Details - The total budget application amount is 122.4 trillion yen, with a historical high debt financing demand of 32.4 trillion yen, accounting for 26.5% of the total budget application [1] - The initial budget applications are typically reduced during the budget compilation process, with the current fiscal year's application expected to be compressed to 115.2 trillion yen [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The increase in budget applications is influenced by Japan's aging population, which necessitates the maintenance of social services while facing rising borrowing costs due to the Bank of Japan's gradual interest rate hikes [1] - The rising bond yields are directly impacting government borrowing costs, posing new challenges to Japan's fiscal sustainability [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Province plans to issue up to 5 billion RMB offshore local bonds in Hong Kong, focusing on sustainable development, blue economy, and aerospace themes [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance will be conducted through a book-building process and will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1] - The bonds will have maturities of 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years, with the 3-year bond designated as a sustainable development bond, the 5-year bond as a blue bond, and the 10-year bond as an aerospace-themed bond [1] Group 2: Fund Utilization - The funds raised will be primarily allocated to marine protection, livelihood security, and key research and infrastructure projects in the aerospace sector [1] - The initiative aims to enhance Hainan's brand in sustainable development and the blue economy, aligning with the "Five Directions for Strengthening" strategy to create a new quality productivity practice area [1] Group 3: Future Announcements - Specific details regarding the issuance schedule will be announced in due course [1]

Group 1 - Japan's Ministry of Finance has requested a record 32.4 trillion yen (approximately 219 billion USD) for debt repayment in the next fiscal year, reflecting the impact of rising government bond yields on public finances [1][2] - The requested amount represents a 15% increase compared to the initial budget of the previous fiscal year, significantly exceeding the 3% inflation rate during the same period [1] - Debt repayment expenditures currently account for about one-quarter of Japan's national budget, indicating a growing financial burden on the government [1] Group 2 - The total budget request from the Ministry of Finance amounts to 34.1 trillion yen, with the majority allocated for debt servicing and a small portion for overseas development assistance [2] - Japan, as one of the developed economies with the heaviest debt burden, faces increasing costs due to an aging population and expanding social security needs [2] - The Bank of Japan's gradual interest rate hikes have directly increased government debt costs, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis [2]

Core Insights - The total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, marking a significant economic concern for the country [1] - The implications of this debt level can be understood through three dimensions: historical comparison, growth rate, and future trends [3] Dimension 1: Historical Comparison - The debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded post-World War II historical peaks, indicating a severe fiscal situation [3] Dimension 2: Growth Rate - Since the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. federal debt has increased by over $14 trillion, raising concerns about the pace of debt expansion [3] Dimension 3: Future Trends - Projections by the Congressional Budget Office suggest that by 2050, the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach an alarming 160% [3] Economic Impacts of High Debt - High debt levels will significantly increase government interest payment burdens and limit public spending [6] - The sustainability of U.S. government debt is increasingly questioned, leading to a loss of the highest sovereign credit rating from major credit rating agencies [6] - A fundamental loss of confidence in U.S. debt could jeopardize the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [6] Tariff Policy and Debt - Current tariff rates are expected to generate approximately $2.2 trillion in revenue over the next decade, which would only cover about half of the fiscal deficit created by the "Build Back Better" plan [9] - Tariff policies may also lead to higher inflation, hinder economic growth, and disrupt global supply chains [9] Interest Rate Policy Challenges - The current interest expenditure has surpassed defense spending, highlighting the challenges of managing high debt levels [10] - Lowering interest rates could alleviate immediate interest burdens but may not resolve structural fiscal deficits [10] - Prematurely lowering rates before inflation returns to target could damage policy credibility and increase future financing costs [10]

Core Points - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion for the first time, reaching $37,004,817,625,842.56 on August 12, marking a critical point in the government's fiscal situation [1] - The speed of debt accumulation is unprecedented, with the debt increasing from $35 trillion to $36 trillion in about a year, while the jump from $36 trillion to $37 trillion took only eight months [3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had previously projected that the national debt would not exceed $37 trillion until after the 2030 fiscal year [3] - Experts express deep concern over the fiscal situation, with warnings that the current trajectory is unsustainable and calls for decisive action to address the growing debt [3][4] Factors Driving Debt Increase - The federal government is borrowing at record levels, compounded by high interest rates that significantly increase debt servicing costs [4] - A large tax and spending bill signed by former President Trump is expected to add $4.1 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [4] - Publicly held debt is projected to reach 99% of GDP this year, approaching historical highs, raising concerns among economists [4]