美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 罗杰斯最近与"和民集团"创办人兼CEO渡边美树对谈，被问到金融危机是否随时可能发生时，罗杰斯回 应指，问题不在于会否发生，而是何时发生，"明年，不论是美国还是全球，都将爆发问题。美国情况 将达到史上最糟，日本也会深陷债务冲击，整个世界都将遭受巨大冲击"。 12月24日，临近年尾，投资者将焦点转向明年的市场行情，美国投资大亨、人称"商品大王"的罗杰斯 (Jim Rogers)预言，2026年将爆发"史上最惨烈"的全球金融危机，冲击范围不只美国，日本也难以幸 免，甚至可能牵动全球经济体系。 罗杰斯认为，新冠疫情之后，各国为刺激经济大举扩张财政，导致政府债务快速堆积。在高利率环境 下，这些债务正逐步转化为沉重负担。一旦市场信心动摇，资金撤离速度将远超政府应对能力，危机规 模自然难以控制。他警告，若发生金融危机，规模恐将非同小可，预测下一场金融危机将是他人生中最 惨烈的一次。被问及如何守护资产，罗杰斯指出，美元相对安全，此外也可考虑将部分资产转移到瑞士 等海外国家。 责任编辑：栎树 ...

财政赤字是支出总量超过收入总量的部分，从明年财政收支形势看，明年保民生、稳就业、扩内需等领 域需要强化保障，培育新质生产力、加强生态环境保护等重点支出持续增长，政府债务还本付息支出压 力犹在。同时，财政收入正处于温和回升阶段，但仍受到需求不足、价格水平有待提升等因素掣肘。总 体看，明年财政收支紧平衡态势延续，刚性支出只增不减，财政赤字规模需适度增加以满足国家重大战 略任务实施、兜牢基层"三保"底线等重点任务的资金需求。 财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段，通过预算、政府债券、税收等工具组合，发挥扩大总需求和定向调 结构的双重优势，实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。在中央经济工作会议提出"保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的总体要求后，市场对明年财政赤字率的设定高度关注。 财政赤字是衡量全年财政政策力度和财政风险水平的重要指标，直接关系到年内政府支出规模。目前， 市场机构与业内人士对财政赤字率的预期较为一致，预计明年赤字率不低于今年水平，即不低于4%。 该赤字率水平既能延续财政扩张态势，又避免了债务风险过快累积。 财政赤字率是社会各界观察宏观政策力度的风向标，从稳定市场预期角度看，"十五五"开局之年的财 ...

去年以来，美国居民收入增长趋缓，中低收入群体因成本上升及担忧就业和经济前景不确定性而精打细 算，控制支出。9月经通胀调整后的实际个人可支配收入仅增长0.1%，实际个人消费支出环比增长0%， 个人储蓄率高达4.7%，对消费需求的抑制仍在持续，价格也将相应受到抑制，通胀下行趋势仍将延 续。美国11月ISM服务业PMI指数显示，11月服务及材料支付价格指数从10月70降至65.4，为今年4月以 来最低，尽管仍处历史较高水平，但印证了服务通胀降温的趋势性判断。更加重要的是，尽管美国通胀 高于2%目标已持续4年多，但长期通胀预期特别是市场指标仍较为稳固地锚定在2%附近，为最终实现 通胀目标提供了保障。 从2022年3月开始，美联储为降低通胀连续加息直至2023年7月，很多经济学家包括美联储都预测美国经 济将因此衰退，失业率大幅上升，但当时衰退并未发生。进入2024年后，美国通胀有所反弹和顽固，同 时就业走弱，经济降温趋冷，衰退论再次浮现。明年将会如何？笔者认为，可以分别从通胀和增长两个 方面分析。 从通胀看，美国商务部12月5日公布因联邦政府关闭延迟的9月PCE通胀数据显示，美国9月PCE和核心 PCE价格指数同比均增 ...

Core Insights - Global public debt is projected to exceed $111 trillion by December 2025, with U.S. federal debt reaching $38 trillion, highlighting the unsustainable nature of current debt levels [1] - Pensions are increasingly invested in government bonds, creating a cycle where citizens are both borrowers and lenders, with their retirement funds tied to government debt [3][4] - The structure of China's national debt is predominantly held by domestic banks and the central bank, with foreign investors holding only 2.4%, contrasting sharply with the U.S. where foreign investors hold 30% [4] Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. government is expected to pay $1 trillion in debt interest in the 2025 fiscal year, which will escalate to $13.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly impacting taxpayers [8] - Interest payments are projected to consume 3.3% of GDP by 2025, surpassing defense spending, indicating a critical financial imbalance [8] - China's debt interest pressure is manageable, but local government debt poses structural risks, with some counties spending 40% of their revenue on interest payments [11] Pension Fund Performance - The national social security fund's investment portfolio includes 40% in equity funds and over 20% in government bonds, exposing pensions to interest rate fluctuations [6] - A significant drop in bond prices due to rising interest rates could lead to substantial losses in pension funds, affecting retirees' financial stability [6][13] - Historical data indicates that a 1% decline in average returns over the next decade could reduce pension replacement rates significantly, impacting retirees' income [13] Systemic Risks and Future Adjustments - Systemic risks are increasing due to political gridlock over debt ceilings in the U.S., high debt levels in Japan, and slow progress in addressing local government debt in China [11] - The potential for a debt crisis is heightened by interconnected global financial markets, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis [11] - Future adjustments to the debt system may manifest as gradual inflation or sudden welfare cuts, impacting the purchasing power of pensions [14] Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to build "anti-debt asset portfolios" by investing in gold and REITs, which typically have a negative correlation with government bonds [15] - Increasing the proportion of non-monetary assets in investment portfolios can help mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [15] - Developing skills in recession-resistant sectors can provide more stable income during economic downturns, as evidenced by lower unemployment rates in certain professions during past crises [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the focus of London traders towards political dynamics, which has become a regular consideration in their decision-making processes [2] - This change is attributed to two main factors: the evolving political landscape, including frequent changes in UK prime ministers, and the transformation of the market environment following the rise in inflation in 2022 [2] - The emergence of "invisible investors" has created a new dynamic where government borrowing costs can suddenly spike due to their predictions regarding inflation trends and government debt [2] Political Landscape Changes - The UK has experienced frequent changes in leadership, which has heightened the attention traders pay to political events [2] - This political volatility has contributed to a more cautious and proactive approach among investors [2] Market Environment Transformation - The rise in inflation in 2022 marked the end of a long period of low borrowing costs that had persisted since 2008 [2] - This shift has led to increased scrutiny from investors regarding government fiscal policies and debt management [2] Role of Invisible Investors - A new group of investors, referred to as "invisible investors," has emerged, influencing government borrowing costs based on their assessments of inflation and debt [2] - These investors act as "obligatory monitors" in the bond market, impacting government financial strategies [2]

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The global financial markets are experiencing a complex and volatile landscape, with diverse asset performances and intertwining disruptive trends and macro risks [1][2] - Following the market turmoil in April 2025, global stock markets rebounded, with notable recoveries in the US, China, and Japan, driven primarily by strong earnings in AI-related sectors [1][2] - The US stock market's performance is particularly strong, supported by the technology and communication sectors, with the "Tech Seven" companies being key drivers of returns [1][2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is under significant pressure, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets rising to multi-decade highs due to concerns over government debt [2][11] - Even with the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts, the US yield curve remains steep, indicating a shift in market focus towards inflation control and government debt management [2][11] Group 3: Economic Insights - The global economy is undergoing a transformation, with the US economy showing steady growth despite a slowdown in consumer spending, supported by investments in AI infrastructure [2][19] - Inflation remains complex, with overall inflation decreasing while commodity inflation has rebounded significantly, particularly in the context of tariffs affecting imported goods [23][25] Group 4: Investment Strategies - BlackRock emphasizes three core investment themes: focusing on current certainties, strategically managing macro risks, and anchoring investments in disruptive trends like AI [3][18] - Tactical asset allocation favors US and Japanese equities, while strategic views are positive on emerging market stocks, infrastructure stocks, and private credit [3][54] - The role of private markets is increasingly significant, with more companies relying on private market financing, highlighting the growing interest in private credit and equity [3][54] Group 5: Sector Performance - The performance of different stock markets varies, with returns in the US driven largely by earnings growth rather than valuation increases, contrasting with markets outside the US where returns are more valuation-driven [37][39] - The AI trend is expected to continue driving corporate earnings growth, which is seen as a key factor for future stock market performance [39][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Core Views - The effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies is contingent upon their ability to promote stable economic growth, but they often serve as tools rather than solutions when deep structural contradictions arise in the economy [2][7] - Government debt management is akin to operating a "super company," where the sustainability of debt relies on the expectation of future income, primarily through tax revenues [2][4] Government Debt and Expenditure - Government debt and expenditure must be built on a durable and stable system, which is essential for both corporate prosperity and government sustainability [4] - Fiscal spending should accurately address the core contradictions and pain points of the economy to yield potential economic returns and growth; misallocation of fiscal funds can erode government competitiveness and future revenue-generating capacity [4][8] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary and fiscal policies are merely means to alleviate pain during economic downturns and to temper overheating during upturns, but they do not resolve core contradictions [7][8] - High interest rates are often employed to control rapid economic expansion rather than directly causing a slowdown in growth; the key variables affecting growth are division, distribution, and leverage [7][8] Debt Sustainability - Low interest rates do not necessarily provide substantial benefits to fiscal debt; if fiscal debt loses market confidence, merely having low rates will not resolve credit crises [8] - The core issue is whether policies can promote sustainable growth, which in turn leads to long-term benefits for government departments and alleviates concerns about debt sustainability [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt burden is accelerating, projected to surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, with total debt as a percentage of GDP expected to reach 143.4% by 2030, marking a significant increase of over 20 percentage points from current levels [1][3]. Debt Trajectory - By 2030, the debt-to-GDP ratio for Italy and Greece is expected to decline, while the U.S. ratio will continue to rise, indicating a long-term trend of increasing debt in the U.S. as per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [2][3]. - The IMF predicts that the U.S. budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy nations tracked by the IMF [1]. Political and Economic Context - The Biden administration has seen a rapid expansion of the federal deficit, with limited progress made during the Trump administration to address the issue [3][4]. - Political dynamics in the U.S. complicate efforts to reduce the deficit, as both major parties are resistant to significant changes in spending or taxation [4]. Italy's Fiscal Discipline - Italy is recognized for its efforts to control budget deficits, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when the current government took office [6]. - The Italian government is expected to achieve a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP, exceeding initial forecasts [6]. Sustainability Concerns - Despite the U.S. having a lower net government debt level compared to Italy, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are growing due to the rising debt trajectory [7]. - Analysts emphasize that any predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions must consider various economic factors, including productivity growth and tax revenues [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, highlighting the fragility of U.S. public finances [1][3] - By 2030, U.S. government debt is expected to rise over 20 percentage points, reaching 143.4% of GDP, surpassing the record set during the pandemic [1] - The annual budget deficit in the U.S. is anticipated to remain above 7% of GDP, higher than any other developed economy tracked by the International Monetary Fund [1] Comparison with Italy and Greece - Italy and Greece, historically known for their weak fiscal positions and central to the 2010-2012 Eurozone debt crisis, are expected to reduce their debt burdens by the end of the decade through strict deficit control [3] - In contrast, U.S. debt is projected to continue rising, with the Congressional Budget Office forecasting ongoing growth in U.S. debt over the coming decades [3]