This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with: What we're watching What we're reading Economic data releases and earnings Nothing has displaced the US dollar as the world's favored reserve currency. But gold (GC=F) investors are giving it a shot. The safe-haven asset is welcoming with open arms the money flowing out of team greenback as political instability, government debt, and the whims of central banks gnaw at the power an ...

全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软着陆走向温和过热的概率加大。 国庆假期，海外市场由美国政府停摆和日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁两大事件主导。联邦政府停摆期间，避险情绪升温，非农就业等重要经济数据暂停发 布，市场交易"没消息就是没消息"，对美联储"盲降利率"的预期升温，叠加高市早苗胜选带来的日本"宽财政+宽货币"预期，共同带动黄金和比特币续创历 史新高。 向前看，全球政治右翼化与宽财政、宽货币趋势意味着地缘摩擦更大的不确定性、全球政府债务更大的不可持续性，经济从软着陆走向温和过热的概率加 大。 海外经济 美国ADP就业再度负增长，ISM制造业和服务业指数表现分化。因美国联邦政府自10月1日起停摆，一些政府机构发布的美国经济数据暂停发布，迄今已受 到影响的数据包括9月美国非农就业、首申失业金、8月工厂订单、建筑开支等数据，而美联储、私营部门发布的数据不受影响。 国庆假期前后，美国公布的职位空缺、ADP就业数据以及PMI、消费者信心等景气数据喜忧参半。 景气指数方面，9月美国ISM制造业和服务业PMI分化：ISM制造业PMI改善至49.1，预期49， ...

谈判结束后，双方立场依然强硬，并相互指责。副总统JD Vance警告称，美国正"走向一场停摆"，并指责民主党人将政府"当作人质"。而参议院少数党领袖 Chuck Schumer则反驳称，是否关门的决定权在共和党手中，民主党已向总统提出建议，但"最终的决策者是特朗普"。 美国政府关门倒计时仅剩不到两天之际，国会两党就拨款问题举行的关键谈判失败，这一政治僵局引发的市场焦虑情绪，已将金价推升至每盎司3800美元上 方。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普与国会两党领袖在白宫的会谈未能打破僵局。联邦政府的现有资金将于当地时间周三凌晨0点01分正式耗尽。若届时无法达 成协议，一场将导致数十万联邦雇员被迫休假、公共服务中断的政府关门将不可避免。 对美国政治体系不确定性的担忧，叠加美元走弱，推动作为传统避险资产的黄金价格在周一上午强势突破3800美元/盎司的关口。 高盛表示，股市最担心的是美国政府停摆可能导致非农就业数据发布推迟。如果政府停摆，9月非农就业报告很可能无法按计划于周五上午8:30发布，这可 能会导致美联储10月份降息计划推迟。 白宫新闻秘书Karoline Leavitt周一早些时候在接受媒体采访时表示，特朗普拥有 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, has upgraded its rating on U.S. long-term Treasuries from "underweight" to "neutral" as investors anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy Adjustments - BlackRock's tactical investment stance for U.S. long-term Treasuries has been adjusted to "neutral" for the next 6 to 12 months, ending a long-standing "underweight" strategy [1] - The company has also downgraded its position on short-term Treasuries from "overweight" to "neutral" [1] - The adjustment is based on the expectation of a short-term decline in Treasury yields, despite structural factors pushing yields higher in the long term [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points to 4.034%, marking its fourth consecutive week of decline, although it remains above the 52-week low of 3.622% reached last September [1] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4% to 4.25% [1] - BlackRock's Jean Boivin noted that a weak labor market provides a reasonable basis for the Fed to cut rates, which could help alleviate inflationary pressures [1] Group 3: Long-term Economic Outlook - Despite inflation risks, BlackRock maintains a "risk-on" stance, believing that U.S. economic growth, while slowing, remains resilient, and corporate earnings will continue to be stable [2] - The market's driving factors are shifting from tariffs and policy uncertainty to a balance between inflation, economic growth, and government debt [2] - BlackRock's long-term strategic allocation still favors inflation-linked bonds over long-term government bonds [2] Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Considerations - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching all-time highs, indicating positive market sentiment [3] - BlackRock views the Fed's upcoming policy decision as a potential turning point for global markets, with the possibility of supporting both U.S. equities and long-term Treasuries if the rate cut occurs under controlled inflation and sustained economic growth [3] - However, the market must remain vigilant regarding the potential resurgence of inflation [3]

Group 1: Company Registrations and Economic Indicators - In August 2025, Pakistan registered 3,278 new companies, with a total paid-up capital of 7.74 billion PKR, bringing the total number of registered companies to approximately 265,600 [9] - The information technology and e-commerce sector led the new registrations with 670 companies, followed by trade (413), services (394), and real estate and construction (297) [9] - Worker remittances in August 2025 amounted to 3.1 billion USD, showing a 2.38% decline from the previous month but a 6.6% increase year-on-year [9] Group 2: Government Debt and Tax Expenditures - The total government debt for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached 77.888 trillion PKR, a 13% increase from the previous fiscal year's 68.914 trillion PKR, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to 73.2% [10] - The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) estimated tax expenditures for the fiscal year 2023-2024 at 2.43 trillion PKR, which is 26.18% of the total revenue (9.3 trillion PKR) and 2.32% of the GDP (105.14 trillion PKR) [10] Group 3: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector's asset size grew by 11.0% in the first half of 2025, with deposits increasing by 17.7%, while the ratio of non-performing loans slightly worsened to 7.4% [11] - The banking sector's credit risk remains manageable, with a decrease in non-performing loans reported [11] Group 4: Automotive Industry Growth - In the first two months of the fiscal year 2025-26, automobile sales and production in Pakistan increased by 40.06% and 100.93%, respectively, with sales rising from 12,274 units to 17,192 units [12] - Motorcycle sales also saw significant growth, increasing by 44.06% from 189,227 units to 272,601 units during the same period [12] Group 5: International Financial Support - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) agreed to provide a total guarantee of 285 million USD to assist Pakistan in issuing 250 million USD in panda bonds, with commitments to use the funds for green projects [11]

（原标题：蓝佛安回应政府负债问题） 北京日报记者提问，蓝部长提到，国家的财政账本里分量最重、成色最足的始终是民生。"十四五"是全 面建成小康社会的第一个五年，人民群众对于美好生活的期待更加足了，想请问财政部在保障和改善民 生方面，做了哪些工作？ 蓝佛安 图源：国新网 蓝佛安表示，民生二字，重若千钧。让人民过上幸福生活，是我们的头等大事。"十四五"以来，国家财 政坚持在高质量发展中保障和改善民生，民生领域财政投入占全国一般公共预算支出70%以上，资金更 多、更直接地用到了老百姓身上。这些年，我们力求做到四个"突出"。 一是突出更加公平，织密"保障网"，不断拓展保障范围、提高保障水平。 来源：国新网、新华社 9月12日下午，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请财政部部长 蓝佛安，财政部副部长廖岷、王东伟、郭婷婷介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效，并答记者问。 蓝佛安介绍，截至2024年末，我国政府全口径债务总额为92.6万亿元，包括国债34.6万亿元、地方政府 法定债务47.5万亿元、地方政府隐性债务10.5万亿元，政府负债率为68.7%。同时，我国政府债务对应 着大量优质资产。 ...

来源：国新网、新华社 9月12日下午， 国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请 财政部部长蓝佛安，财政部副部长廖岷、王东伟、郭婷婷介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成 效，并答记者问。 蓝佛安介绍，截至2024年末，我国政府全口径债务总额为92.6万亿元，包括国债34.6万亿 元、地方政府法定债务47.5万亿元、地方政府隐性债务10.5万亿元，政府负债率为68.7%。 同时，我国政府债务对应着大量优质资产。 "总体看，我国政府负债率处于合理区间，风险安全可控。"蓝佛安说。 蓝佛安：人民群众对美好生活的期盼在哪里，财政资金就重点投向哪里；人民群众急难愁盼在哪里，财 政政策就往哪里发力 9月12日下午， 国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，请 财政部部长蓝佛安，财政部副部长廖岷、王东伟、郭婷婷介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成 效，并答记者问。 北京日报记者提问， 蓝部长提到，国家的财政账本里分量最重、成色最足的始终是民生。"十 四五"是全面建成小康社会的第一个五年，人民群众对于美好生活的期待更加足了，想请问财 政部在保障和改善民生方面，做了哪些工作？ 蓝 ...

Group 1 - Global government bond markets experienced a sell-off this week, with long-term bond yields rising across the board due to heightened concerns over national debt levels and uncertain tariff outlooks in the US [1] - The UK 30-year bond yield reached 5.69%, the highest level since at least 2006, while Germany and the Netherlands saw their 30-year yields rise to 3.4% and 3.57%, respectively, marking the highest levels since 2011 [1] - In the US, the 30-year Treasury yield approached 5%, reaching a peak of 4.997%, a level not seen since 2006, indicating significant potential losses for bondholders if they sell now [1] Group 2 - The French National Assembly plans to hold a no-confidence vote on the government's debt reduction plan, raising concerns about political gridlock hindering fiscal tightening amid high deficit levels [2] - The US federal deficit for the current fiscal year is projected at $1.7 trillion, slightly down from $1.83 trillion in 2024, but still concerning due to uncertainties surrounding tariff revenues [2] - Recent data showed US tariff revenues from April to July reached $94.4 billion, up from $24 billion in the same period last year, but analysts caution that this increase may not significantly alter the overall fiscal situation [2] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that long-term bonds typically perform poorly in September, with the iShares International Treasury Bond ETF averaging a decline of 1.46% and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF averaging a decline of 2.6% over the past decade [3]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch maintains the United States' credit rating at "AA+" due to concerns over rising debt levels and fiscal deficits, despite expected revenue increases from tariffs under President Trump [1][2]. Group 1: Credit Rating and Debt Concerns - Fitch emphasizes that the U.S. has not taken effective measures to address its large fiscal deficit and increasing debt burden, alongside upcoming spending issues related to an aging population [2]. - In 2023, Fitch downgraded the U.S. sovereign rating from "AAA" to "AA+" due to anticipated worsening fiscal conditions and ongoing negotiations regarding the debt ceiling [2][3]. - Moody's also downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch this year, indicating the loss of the last "AAA" rating due to rising debt levels [3]. Group 2: Economic Flexibility and Tariff Revenue - Despite rising debt levels, the U.S. benefits from a large high-income economy and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, which provides financing flexibility [2][4]. - Fitch predicts that tariff revenues will surge to $250 billion this year, significantly higher than the $77 billion expected in 2024, suggesting that tariff policies may help alleviate fiscal issues [5]. Group 3: Long-term Projections - Fitch forecasts that the deficit will increase in the long term, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 114.5% at the end of last year to 127% by 2027 [6]. - Fitch's report maintains a stable outlook for the U.S. credit rating, similar to Standard & Poor's, which also keeps the "AA+/A-1+" rating stable due to the revenue from tariff policies offsetting recent tax cuts and spending [7].

Group 1 - Japan and the US have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, including an increase in US rice imports [1] - Following the trade agreement, global stock markets rebounded, with Japan's Nikkei index rising significantly, closing at 41,171.32 points, marking a substantial increase [1] - Japanese automotive stocks surged, with Toyota rising by 13.65%, Honda by 10.34%, and Mazda by 17.77% [1] Group 2 - The automotive industry is a key sector for Japan, with 1.37 million cars expected to be exported to the US in 2024, accounting for 34% of Japan's total exports to the US [2] - A 25% tariff on automobiles could result in a potential economic loss of up to 13 trillion yen for Japan, impacting over 5.58 million jobs [2] - Concerns about the US tariffs have led to a sell-off of Japanese automotive stocks since 2025 [2] Group 3 - Japan's government has been cautious about increasing domestic investment in the US automotive sector due to fears of hollowing out its manufacturing base [3] - Initially, Japan sought the removal of all tariffs and was resistant to increasing rice imports, but has since shifted its stance to expedite negotiations [3] - Although Japan did not achieve its initial tariff removal goals, the final agreement represents a significant reduction from the US's original demands [3] Group 4 - Prime Minister Kishida is expected to announce his resignation by the end of August, amid various economic challenges including high government debt and inflation [4] - The Japanese government is facing pressure to reduce taxes while managing bond supply, which has led to rising bond yields [4] - The ruling party must navigate internal dissent and collaborate with opposition parties to address pressing economic issues [4]