Core Viewpoint - The cyclical demand and structural trends in the precious metals market are expected to resonate through 2026, with projected COMEX gold prices rising to $4,500 per ounce and COMEX silver prices to $55 per ounce, indicating further upward potential compared to current forward curves [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariff policy in 2025 disrupted the global macro environment, leading to a cumulative increase of over 50% in international gold prices and over 70% in silver prices, outperforming other major asset classes [2] - The strong performance of precious metals this year has been primarily driven by cyclical buying demand from European and American ETFs, with silver's price increase surpassing that of gold [2][3] - The return of cyclical buying demand to the European and American ETF markets has been a key factor in the further price breakthroughs of gold this year, contrasting with the previous three years where emerging market central banks were the marginal source of gold investment demand [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - The unique value of physical gold and the strategic resource attributes of silver are expected to be further highlighted in the new macro order, providing structural support for global central bank gold purchases and private sector physical investments [2][5] - The development of investment products such as futures, options, and gold ETFs has provided more investment avenues, but physical gold remains irreplaceable in asset allocation [5] Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - The potential for significant price corrections in gold is a growing concern, with historical triggers identified, although the likelihood of cyclical turning points occurring in 2026 is considered low [4] - The recent "short squeeze" in the silver market has led to the U.S. including silver in its critical minerals list, which may increase the risk of tariffs on silver and heighten trade disruption risks [6]