2 0 2 5 地缘政治、关税调整与技术变革交织，全球经济不确定性显著上升。大宗价格波动、投资信 心变化与区域竞争格局重塑，正在重排未来五年的增长与资本流向。 在这一背景下，企业与城市的竞争力愈发取决于对结构性趋势的洞察，以及在波动环境中保 持韧性与果断决策的能力。 1 全球五大变数 未来五年，地缘政治、科技突破与制度演进等关键变量将深刻重塑全球运行逻辑，企业 需提前识别长期趋势，而非被短期波动牵引。 2 大宗价格博弈 关税政策调整正在改变外商直接投资预期，亚洲经济体面临资本重新配置与产业布局再 选择的关键考验。 4 城市创新跃迁 灵蛇探机：把握大宗市场价格脉动，蛇年新策略迎接新开局 中国城市创新动能强劲，潜力排名跃升——科尔尼发布2025年全球城市指数报告 科尔尼：未来五年全球五大变数 大宗商品价格高度分化与剧烈波动成为常态，企业需以数据驱动的采购与定价体系，提 升应对周期与结构性变化的能力。 3 投资信心重塑 科尔尼2025外商直接投资信心指数®报告暨最新关税政策对亚洲各国的潜在影响 全球经济修复与下行风险并存，区域增长出现分化，亚洲成为主要增长引擎，但贸易放 缓与碎片化压力持续存在。 6 CEO 战略转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical demand and structural trends in the precious metals market are expected to resonate through 2026, with projected COMEX gold prices rising to $4,500 per ounce and COMEX silver prices to $55 per ounce, indicating further upward potential compared to current forward curves [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. tariff policy in 2025 disrupted the global macro environment, leading to a cumulative increase of over 50% in international gold prices and over 70% in silver prices, outperforming other major asset classes [2] - The strong performance of precious metals this year has been primarily driven by cyclical buying demand from European and American ETFs, with silver's price increase surpassing that of gold [2][3] - The return of cyclical buying demand to the European and American ETF markets has been a key factor in the further price breakthroughs of gold this year, contrasting with the previous three years where emerging market central banks were the marginal source of gold investment demand [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - The unique value of physical gold and the strategic resource attributes of silver are expected to be further highlighted in the new macro order, providing structural support for global central bank gold purchases and private sector physical investments [2][5] - The development of investment products such as futures, options, and gold ETFs has provided more investment avenues, but physical gold remains irreplaceable in asset allocation [5] Group 3: Risks and Opportunities - The potential for significant price corrections in gold is a growing concern, with historical triggers identified, although the likelihood of cyclical turning points occurring in 2026 is considered low [4] - The recent "short squeeze" in the silver market has led to the U.S. including silver in its critical minerals list, which may increase the risk of tariffs on silver and heighten trade disruption risks [6]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 [1] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 52%, indicating it as the main driver of growth [4] Resilience and Challenges - Despite external pressures, China's economy shows resilience and potential, supported by proactive macro policies [2][4] - The economy faces challenges from external uncertainties and internal structural adjustments, with a need for balanced growth [3] Export Performance - China's exports exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, driven by "export grabbing" and enhanced competitiveness of enterprises [4] Policy and Market Outlook - The macro policy is characterized by a reactive approach, with expectations for further adjustments to stabilize growth and achieve the annual target of 5% [5] - The investment strategy is shifting towards structural trends, focusing on sectors like AI, energy, and defense, which are expected to provide substantial growth opportunities [8] Global Economic Context - Global investors face significant uncertainty, particularly regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit and Federal Reserve monetary policy, which complicates decision-making [7] - The focus is shifting from seeking growth to identifying strong, long-term structural trends that can drive investment [8]