2025年过半，中国经济交出了一份稳健增长的"期中答卷"。 国家统计局数据显示，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%，其中，一季度同比增长 5.4%，二季度增长5.2%；从环比看，二季度GDP增长1.1%。 在全球宏观不确定性持续增强的背景下，中国经济依旧展现出韧性与潜力。 国家统计局副局长盛来运15日在国新办新闻发布会上说，上半年更加积极有为的宏观政策发力显 效，经济运行延续稳中向好发展态势，展现出强大韧性和活力。 数据显示，中国居民消费价格（消费者物价指数，CPI）基本平稳，核心CPI温和回升。投资增速 波动和小幅回落。房地产总体朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。 上半年，社会消费品零售总额同比增长在加快，市场活跃度在提升，这有力支撑了上半年GDP的增 长。数据显示，最终消费支出贡献率为52%，是增长的主动力。 盛来运指出，从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少不确定性，内部结构调整压力较大，但综合 判断，中国经济保持稳定增长是有支撑的。 值得注意的是，整个二季度（4月1日至6月30日），中国经济几乎都在经受来自美国的关税压力， 不过上半年出口数据好于预期，6月出口同比增长达5.8%。 贝莱德首席中国经济学家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a significant rebound amid easing trade war tensions, but Goldman Sachs warns of substantial uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. economy [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, driven by rising policy uncertainty and declining business confidence [2][3]. - Key indicators show that the proportion of respondents expecting economic activity to decline is nearing historical highs, alongside potential slowdowns in real income growth and ongoing financial tensions [3]. Market Predictions - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4,600 points, representing a 17.9% decline from recent closing prices, while high-yield credit spreads may widen to 788 basis points [3]. - Traditional hedging tools like long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar may fail to effectively mitigate stock market risks [4]. Investment Strategies - Gold is identified as the best hedge against recession, with prices potentially reaching $3,880 per ounce by year-end, driven by increased central bank purchases and shifts in private investor allocations [6]. - The report highlights that global gold ETF holdings are only 1% of the U.S. Treasury market size, indicating significant potential for price increases with even minor reallocations from other assets [6]. Oil Market Insights - Oil put options are recommended as a quality hedge in recession scenarios, with Brent crude oil prices potentially averaging $53 per barrel in a U.S. recession context [7]. - The report suggests that oil prices may experience larger declines in the next recession due to OPEC's current high spare capacity [7]. Structural Trends - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the "4D structural trends" that will favor gold and copper in the long term, including de-dollarization, increased defense spending, energy risk mitigation, and insufficient copper mining investments [9][10]. - The report anticipates that European defense spending will rise from 2% to 3% of GDP over the next five years, which will increase demand for copper and other metals [9]. Copper Market Outlook - Insufficient investment in copper mining could lead to price recoveries, with estimates suggesting copper prices may reach $10,600 per ton by December 2026 under non-recession conditions [10]. - In a recession scenario, copper prices could fall below cost support levels, potentially reaching $6,750 per ton [10].