美食家陈晓卿曾说："月饼是一种很奇怪的东西，只有当你远离它，才会发现它的美好"。身为季节性食 品，月饼在不少人心中是一门"一个月可以赚一年钱"的生意，甚至也跑出了如广州酒家、元祖股份和五 芳斋等"月饼巨头"。 从广式、苏式到滇式的流派大战，再到各类联名、跨界玩家的产品大战，每一年的"月饼江湖"似乎都有 类似的故事，也从不缺硝烟和战火。 文 | 山核桃 编者按： 作为下半年最长的假期，国庆既是消费爆发的集中池，同样也是最好的观察窗口。 过去的大半年里，市场的焦虑、不确定性，孕育了大量的新业态、新概念、新品牌，这些新 花样成色究竟如何？一切都将在这个黄金周，在和用户钱包的真实碰撞中，试出最终的真 金。 财经无忌将推出国庆特别策划，聚焦食品、黄金和智驾等行业的深度消费观察，揭开这 个"黄金周"火热消费背后的真实景象。 又是一年中秋，在不少人看来，国庆叠加中秋，今年是一个典型的"月饼大年"。 在不少烘焙人心中，不可否认的是，月饼依旧是一门令人艳羡的好生意——高达50-60%的毛利，兼具 节庆和文化属性自然带来高溢价的可能。据艾媒咨询数据，早在2023年中国月饼销售规模已达271.3亿 元。 但新的变化也在发生，一个讲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1HFY25 performance met expectations, with revenue of 3.156 billion yuan and a net profit of 600 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.0% and 4.7% respectively [1] Performance Review - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.45 HKD per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of approximately 37% [1] - Revenue breakdown by channel for 1HFY25 showed a decline in direct sales by 7.7% to 1.117 billion yuan, while distribution and e-commerce channels grew by 14.2% and 11.9% to 1.437 billion yuan and 602 million yuan respectively [1] - The number of direct stores decreased by 24 to 491, while distribution stores increased by 126 to 1,614, indicating a strategic channel optimization [1] - Comparable store sales showed a modest increase of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating stability in sales performance [1] Brand Performance - Revenue from the mature brand JNBY increased by 3.6% to 1.760 billion yuan, demonstrating strong growth resilience [2] - The emerging brands saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 147.3% to 194 million yuan, albeit from a low base [2] - Active membership accounts slightly declined to 540,000, attributed to reduced foot traffic, while high-value members (spending over 5,000 yuan) increased by 30,000 to over 330,000 [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin remained stable at 65.1%, while the selling expense ratio increased by 1.1 percentage points to 32.3% due to marketing activities for the brand's anniversary [2] - The management expense ratio rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.6%, but government subsidies increased and the effective tax rate decreased, keeping the net profit margin stable at 19.0% [2] Development Trends - The company has been focusing on brand strength, successfully launching multiple "JNBY+" concept stores and investing in digital retail channels [2] - The company completed acquisitions of a children's clothing brand and a 100% stake in a department store brand, expanding its multi-brand portfolio [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for FY25 and FY26 are maintained at 870 million yuan and 930 million yuan respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 10 and 9 times the FY25 and FY26 earnings [3] - The target price has been raised by 16% to 20.00 HKD, reflecting an expected upside of 13% from the current stock price [3]