上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 26 日 迎驾贡酒 (603198) 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.22 | | 资产负债率% | 22.09 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 800/800 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04-26 05-26 06-26 07-26 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 迎驾贡酒 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the company maintains strong brand momentum in the mid-term, but requires the release of automotive production capacity and the 2026 new vehicle product cycle to drive growth [1] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from 471/674/731 billion to 415/555/686 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52%/34%/24% [1] - The current stock price of 52.55 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 30.1/22.6/18.2 for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit was 10.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 75%, which was in line with expectations [1] - Mobile business revenue was 45.5 billion, with an average selling price (ASP) declining by 3% and 11% quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year respectively, primarily due to increased shipment volume in Africa and intense price competition in overseas markets [1] - IoT revenue reached 38.7 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20%, exceeding previous expectations, mainly driven by large home appliances [1] Group 3 - The automotive and new business segment is expected to achieve profitability in a specific month or quarter in H2 2025 [2] - The company anticipates a decline in main business net profit in Q3 2025, primarily due to rising storage costs and the absence of new product launches, with a projected gross margin drop to 11% [2] - The IoT business is expected to see seasonal revenue decline to around 30 billion, while gross margin is anticipated to improve [2]

在lululemon变得"不酷"之前，很长一段时间里面，它一直是那个最酷的品牌。 lululemon最早是一个小众瑜伽品牌，后来一路狂飙，很长时间内一直是全球仅次于耐克、市值第二高 的运动品牌。 这个品牌破圈的过程，已经成为一个让人津津乐道的商业故事。在北美起家的时候，lululemon瞄准的 是年收入10～15万美金，30～35岁的高学历的白领女性： 本文来自微信公众号：投资人黄海 （ID：haivcconsumer），作者：投资人黄海，题图来自：视觉中国 经常购买运动品牌的朋友们，大家最近有没有一个感觉：lululemon不酷了。 创始人给这个群体起了一个名字，叫"超级女孩"。 这个群体对运动穿着的品质有很高要求，同时她们希望一套运动服既能在运动时候穿，也能适用于生活 休闲场景。lululemon的衣服虽然价格比较贵，但是舒适度很高，很快就把这群人吸引成了忠实客户群 体。 lululemon在发展的过程中，很少采用传统的广告营销、明星代言这些打法。它更加倾向做社区活动来 增加用户粘性。同时，lululemon的logo也从来不出现在产品显眼之处，有种低调不张扬的气质。 早期购买lululemon的用户，都 ...

业绩简评 8 月 20 日公司发布半年报，25H1 实现营收 29.41 亿元，同比 +19.58%；实现归母净利润 3.73 亿元，同比+16.70%，扣非归母净 利润 3.34 亿元，同比+22.50%。25Q2 实现营收 14.03 亿元，同比 +13.54%，实现归母净利润 1.95 亿元，同比+21.75%，扣非归母净 利润 1.78 亿元，同比+31.78%，业绩符合预期。 经营分析 魔芋实现翻倍以上增长，品类品牌转型效果持续释放。1）分产品 看，魔芋、鹌鹑蛋、蒟蒻果冻、深海零食等健康化品类保持增长， 其他品类略有下滑主要系公司为提升盈利能力聚焦资源投放，减 少代工产品及长尾 sku。25H1 辣卤魔芋/其他辣卤/蛋类零食/果干 果冻/其他分别实现收入 7.91/5.30/3.09/4.28/0.61 亿元，同比 +155.10%/-9.93%/+29.57%/+9.01%/+42.62%。2）分渠道看，25H1 经销/电商/直营 KA 渠道销售额分别为 23.03/5.74/0.63 亿元，同 比+30.09%/-0.97%/-42.00%。经销渠道高增系大魔王品牌势能辐 射全渠道，其中零食量贩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing significant growth, with a projected revenue increase from 3,180 million in 2023 to 43,114 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 145.7% to 20.4% over the forecast period [7]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from 416 million in 2023 to 7,725 million by 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory with a peak growth rate of 340.4% in 2023 [7]. - The company is expanding its brand influence and retail presence, with a focus on high-end markets both domestically and internationally, including a successful store opening in Singapore [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's strategic initiatives in product innovation and brand building, which are expected to enhance customer engagement and market penetration [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,180 million in 2023, 8,506 million in 2024, 26,176 million in 2025, 35,822 million in 2026, and 43,114 million in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 145.7%, 167.5%, 207.8%, 36.8%, and 20.4% [7]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to grow from 416 million in 2023 to 7,725 million in 2027, with growth rates of 340.4%, 253.9%, 227.1%, 35.2%, and 18.6% respectively [7]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 3.05 in 2023 to 44.74 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [7]. Market Expansion - The company has opened 41 stores as of July 27, 2025, with a focus on high-end shopping districts in major cities and international markets [6]. - The Singapore store has shown strong performance, with expectations for sales growth driven by increased foot traffic and a dedicated membership system [5]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to enhancing its brand presence and customer experience through strategic store placements and product offerings [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]