Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]

文 ｜ 冯重光 郑一鸣 郑逸坤 张政 杨奕成 伴随消费环境与政策预期逐步明朗，纺服板块有望在2 0 2 5年迎来修复性机会。同时在过去两年消 费环境的不确定性下，部分细分板块与龙头公司仍积极求变，我们建议积极把握以下六大投资主线 与重点公司，①零售新业态变革；②品牌势能进入向上周期；③消费环境复苏带动经营修复；④核 心优势稳固，关税等外部扰动逐步落地，同时股息率具备吸引力；⑤户外代工行业库存去化进入尾 声，订单业绩有望确定性修复；⑥可再生需求、人形机器人灵巧手、消费电子&汽车带动下，受益 行业渗透初期优质供需格局。 ▍ 零售新业态主线：零售端积极求变，新业态变革前景广阔。 自2Q2 3以来，各品牌流水压力延续，渠道端持续承压。在此过程中，各品牌公司借势积极求变， 探索新零售业态。我们看好全新城市奥莱模式的发展前景与长期空间，建议在业务初期把握预期 差。 ▍ 强势品牌主线：品牌势能向上，驱动业绩快速增长。 消费需求分化带来部分细分赛道高增机会，部分品牌把握红利，积极开展营销/渠道端动作，带动 爆款产品出圈，品牌势能稳步向上，并有望驱动业绩快速增长。 纺服代工板块受关税、贸易摩擦等外部因素扰动，近期股价普遍有所承 ...