格隆汇12月4日｜申万宏源研究指出，结合渠道反馈，预计山西汾酒2025全年目标任务基本完成，有望 实现稳健增长。在行业下行阶段，公司仍然坚持高质量发展，维持相对合理的库存水平以及相对稳定的 价格水平。当前渠道库存水平2-3个月，青花20批价350元左右，渠道仍处良性状态。展望2026年，预计 公司仍有望实现高质量稳健增长，若外部需求环境改善，汾酒的增长弹性和空间仍大。认为汾酒拥有强 大的品牌基础，完备的产品矩阵，且在多个价格带上大单品的竞争优势突出，在本轮行业下行周期，汾 酒始终维持了相对良性健康的渠道状态，因此，未来若行业重回上行周期，公司增长潜力仍大。由于公 司品牌势能仍强，同时处于历史估值相对较低水平，维持"买入"评级。 ...

市公司 머副▷公司书 报告原因:有信息公布需要点评 型入(维持) | / הודדין | | | --- | --- | | 据: | 2025 年 12月 02 | | 市场数据: 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | --- | | 192.16 收盘价（元） | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产 (元) | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | -年内股价与大盛对比走势： and and the local of the local of the local to the local the local the loc ...

| 买入（维持） | | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 报告原因：有信息公布需要点评 | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 02 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 192.16 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 228.93/168.30 | | 市净率 | 6.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.15 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 234,428 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,897.71/13,056.70 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 31.79 | | 资产负债率% | 28.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,220/1,220 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 12-02 01-02 ...

机构：东吴证券 研究员：汤军/赵艺原 投资要点 公司公布FY2026H1 业绩：营收89.28 亿元/yoy+1.4%，归母净利11.89亿元/yoy+5.3%，中期派息每股6.3 港仙。 品牌羽绒服：主品牌稳健增长，批发有效去库。FY26H1 品牌羽绒服业务收入65.68 亿元/yoy+8.3%/占比 73.6%。1）按品牌分，波司登主品牌收入57.19 亿元/yoy+8.3%，雪中飞收入3.78 亿元/yoy-3.2%，冰洁 收入0.15 亿元/yoy-26.0%。主品牌持续在品牌、产品、渠道维度优化向上，延续高质量增长表现；雪中 飞聚焦性价比羽绒服赛道，深挖品牌"冰雪"及"运动"基因，持续发力线上业务；冰洁品牌上半年启动重 塑，关注年轻女性羽绒服品牌产品的高质量发展。2）按模式分，自营/批发收入分别同比 +6.6%/+7.9%，批发收入增长快于自营，使得FY26H1 品牌羽绒服毛利率同比-2.0pct 至59.1%。我们预计 批发终端销售增长进一步快于报表表现，批发商库存有效去化，为旺季销售做好准备。截至FY26H1 末，羽绒服业务零售网点总数较本财年年初净增加88 家至3,558 家，公司持续优化渠道 ...

Revenue Growth - Total revenue increased by 30% year-on-year to $1.756 billion[7] - Revenue growth in Greater China reached 47%, while Asia-Pacific saw a 54% increase[7] - Functional apparel revenue grew by 31% to $683 million, and outdoor sports revenue increased by 36% to $724 million[7] Store Expansion - Total store count increased by 85 to 631, with a year-on-year increase of 178 stores[7] - Same-store sales growth for functional apparel improved from 15% to 27%[5] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 56.8%[7] - Operating profit margin was reported at 12.3%, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 15.7%[7] Strategic Outlook - The company expects full-year revenue growth of 23-24% and a gross margin of 58.0%[8] - Projected earnings per share for 2025 is between $0.88 and $0.92[8] Valuation and Rating - Target price set at $43.80, representing a 20% upside from the current stock price of $36.60[9] - The stock is rated as "Buy" based on a 27x price-to-earnings ratio[9] Risks - Increased competition in the mature outdoor market in Europe and the U.S. poses a risk to performance[10] - High dependency on single brands and markets could impact stability[10]

Core Viewpoint - The company KAOJIANG is accelerating its national expansion after establishing a strong foothold in Beijing, with plans to enter the competitive markets of Shanghai and Xi'an, showcasing confidence in its replicable business model [1][13]. Group 1: Performance in Beijing - KAOJIANG has achieved impressive results in Beijing, maintaining a monthly revenue per square meter of approximately 12,000 yuan, with peak turnover rates exceeding 10 times [1][4]. - The brand's operational efficiency is supported by a detailed operational system, allowing it to handle high customer traffic effectively [4][6]. Group 2: Product Differentiation - KAOJIANG focuses on a differentiated product strategy, emphasizing traditional spicy grilled fish while innovating with new dining experiences and creative desserts [6][8]. - The brand has successfully adapted its offerings to meet the evolving preferences of young consumers, enhancing the dining experience to include social and celebratory elements [8][20]. Group 3: Expansion Strategy - KAOJIANG's expansion strategy involves a dual-city approach, targeting both Shanghai and Xi'an simultaneously, reflecting confidence in its business model's adaptability [13][15]. - The brand's selection of locations is based on matching its brand identity with target customer demographics, with significant interest from young consumers in potential store locations [15][20]. Group 4: Young Consumer Engagement - KAOJIANG's primary customer base consists of trend-conscious young individuals aged 18-29, which aligns well with the vibrant shopping environment of Shanghai [16][20]. - The brand has generated significant buzz among young consumers, evidenced by a voting campaign for its store location that attracted over 40,000 participants [16][20]. Group 5: Economic Impact - KAOJIANG's presence in shopping centers is expected to drive foot traffic, potentially increasing overall customer visits by over 15% [22][25]. - The brand's late-night offerings align with the growing night economy, contributing to extended operational hours and increased sales during evening hours [22][25].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's product structure adjustment has impacted gross profit, while net profit margin remains stable [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 91.28%, primarily due to the increased proportion of Moutai liquor and product structure optimization [1] - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.3 percentage points to 3.06% and 4.54%, respectively, indicating stable expense ratios [1] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 34.924 billion and 4.122 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 7% and a decline of 34%, respectively [1] - The revenue share of Moutai liquor increased by 6 percentage points to 89%, driven by increased kilogram packaging, while series liquor's decline was attributed to a high base in the same period of 2024 [1] Regional Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic and international revenues were 38.045 billion and 1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1% and a decline of 22%, respectively [1] - The domestic revenue share increased by 1 percentage point to 97% [1] Market Outlook - Despite a slowdown in performance under pressure from demand, the company maintains positive growth, demonstrating resilience as a market leader [1] - The new chairman emphasizes maintaining a healthy channel ecosystem, and the decline in the price of Feitian is expected to drive demand recovery, with brand strength remaining robust [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 32.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.48% to 11.4 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 8.96 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.05%, and the net profit for Q3 was 2.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.38% [6] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 11.67 billion yuan, 12.27 billion yuan, and 13.33 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.6%, +5.1%, and +8.7% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 20x, 19x, and 17x for 2025-2027 [6] - The company has a strong brand foundation and a complete product matrix, maintaining a relatively healthy channel status during the industry downturn, indicating significant growth potential if the industry returns to an upward cycle [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 36.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.1%. The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 11.67 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 75.7%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.9% [5] - Q3 2025 gross profit margin was 74.6%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 32.4%, a decrease of 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the high-end retail market, specifically focusing on the SKP series of shopping malls and the jewelry industry. Core Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In August 2025, SKP series malls are expected to see a sales growth rate between 100% and 200%, with a target sales figure of 360 million yuan to achieve the 200% growth goal [1][6]. - **Jewelry Sales Trends**: The daily sales of gold jewelry increased from 8 million yuan to 15 million yuan after price hikes, with weekend sales reaching up to 20 million yuan [1][5]. - **Sales Forecast for September**: Sales in September 2025 are expected to be stable but may see a year-on-year decline due to a high base from the previous year (47.7 million yuan) [1][7]. - **Monthly Sales Distribution**: Historically, sales in February, April, August, and November have exceeded 100 million yuan, with November typically being the highest sales month due to seasonal demand [1][11]. - **Annual Sales Target**: The overall sales target for 2025 is set at 2.5 billion yuan, with 1.4 billion yuan already achieved by the end of July [1][12]. Additional Important Content - **Impact of Events on Sales**: The scheduling of promotional events was affected by external factors, such as military parades, which led to adjustments in the timing of key sales events [2][3]. - **Promotional Strategies**: The mall employs various promotional strategies, including significant discounts and loyalty programs, to stimulate consumer interest [1][14]. - **Market Challenges**: The jewelry industry is facing challenges, with many brands experiencing sales declines due to a tough economic environment [1][4][24]. - **Brand Performance Variability**: Different jewelry brands are experiencing varying levels of success, with some like Chow Tai Fook seeing significant declines, while others like Chow Sang Sang perform relatively better [1][24]. - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: There is a noted shift in consumer preferences, with a higher overlap of luxury goods consumption among existing customers, now exceeding 70% [1][18]. - **Future Outlook**: The jewelry industry is expected to face continued challenges in the coming months, with brands likely to increase promotional efforts to attract consumers during the holiday shopping season [1][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the performance and strategies of the high-end retail and jewelry sectors.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 23.96 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.51 billion yuan, up 1.13% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, total revenue was 7.44 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.45%, but net profit decreased by 13.5% [4][6] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to external demand pressures, with expected net profits of 11.68 billion yuan, 12.28 billion yuan, and 13.37 billion yuan for the respective years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -4.6%, 5.1%, and 8.9% [6] - The company maintains strong brand momentum and is currently at a relatively low historical valuation level, justifying the "Buy" rating despite the challenges [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the projected total revenue is 36.03 billion yuan, with a negligible growth rate of 0.1%. The net profit is expected to decline by 4.6% to 11.68 billion yuan [5] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 75.7% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 29.9% [5] - The company’s Q2 2025 gross margin was reported at 71.9%, down 3.21 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product mix decline and increased discounts [6] Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, the revenue from liquor was 7.4 billion yuan, with the main product, Fenjiu, contributing 7.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%. Other liquor categories saw a decline of 3.54% [6] - Revenue from provincial sales was 2.65 billion yuan, down 5.29%, while revenue from outside the province was 4.75 billion yuan, up 3.95%, indicating growth potential in the external market [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net operating cash flow for Q2 2025 was -1.05 billion yuan, a significant decline from 0.889 billion yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to decreased cash receipts and increased tax payments [6] - The company’s pre-receivables at the end of Q2 2025 were 6.18 billion yuan, showing a slight increase from the previous quarter [6]