[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 点评： 营收稳健增长，利润增长亮眼 2025H1 公司实现营业收入 41.02 亿元，同比增长 19.54%；归母净利润 3.31 亿元，同比增长 44.34%；扣非净利润 3.30 亿元，同比增长 46.14%；毛利 率 23.81%，同比微降 0.34pct。净利率达到 8.11%，同比提升 1.38pct。费 用率方面，25H1 公司销售费用率 9.27%，同比-2.09 pct；管理费用率 1.56%， 同比-0.36pct，研发费用率 1.08%，同比+0.24 pct。 传统黄金产品毛利率明显优化，上新多授权 IP 系列触达年轻消费群体 分业务来看，25H1 时尚珠宝业务实现收入 19.9 亿元，同比增长 20.33%，毛利率 27.43%，同比-1.09pct。传统黄金产品实现收入 18.3 亿 元，同比增长 23.95%，毛利率提升 3.01%至 12.78%。代理品牌授权及加 盟服务实现收入 1.23 亿元，同比微降 0.45%。皮具业务实 ...

纺织服饰/饰品 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.20 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.18/4.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 135.05 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 131.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.89 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.67 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 279.63 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 潮宏基 沪深300 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 2025H1 归母净利润同比+44.3%，产品升级和渠道扩张带动业绩向上 公司发布中报：2025H1 实现营收 41.02 亿元（同比+19.5%，下同）、归母净利润 3.31 亿元（+44.3%）；单 2025Q2 实现营收 18.50 亿元（+13.1% ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 持续深耕产品，国内国外齐开花 [Table_Title2] 潮宏基(002345) [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 24 日 [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025H1，公司实现营收 41.02 亿元/+19.54%，归母净利润 3.31 亿元/+44.34%；单 Q2 来看，实现营收 18.50 亿 元/+13.13%，归母净利润 1.42 亿元/+44.29%。 分析判断: ► 持续深耕产品，推动单店业绩提升 分业务来看，2025H1，珠宝业务收入 39.73 亿元/+21.22%，其中，时尚珠宝/传统黄金产品收入同比 +20.33%/+23.95%；公司持续深耕产品，以现代设计语言重新诠释传统非遗工艺，同时增加"东方美学"特色 黄金产品线，巩固"串珠编绳"特色专柜优势，并围绕"年轻化 IP 心智"战略，上半年成功推出布丁狗、人 鱼汉顿、线条小狗、黄油小熊四个 IP 授权系列。2025H1，皮具业务收入 1.23 亿元/-17.77%。 ► 加盟门店持续扩张，国际化布局更进一步 分渠道来看，2025H1，加盟代理/自营/ ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 潮宏基（002345） 证券研究报告 25H1 归母净利同比高增 44%，加盟拓店超预期 公司发布 2025 年中报： 25H1 实现营收 41.0 亿元、同比增长 19.5%，归母净利润 3.3 亿元、同比增 长 44.3%，扣非净利润 3.3 亿元、同比增长 46.1%。25Q2 实现营收 18.5 亿 元、同比增长 13.1%，归母净利润 1.4 亿元、同比增长 44.3%，扣非净利润 1.4 亿元、同比增长 46.1%。盈利能力方面，25Q2 毛利率 24.9%、同比提升 1.6pct，归母净利率 7.7%、同比提升 1.7pct。 戴维斯双击强化，成长性值得期待： 潮宏基从 24Q4 走出强成长曲线，具备产品差异化、终端运营数字化、加 盟商赋能等多维度优势，业绩增长持续性值得期待，建议关注国内加盟拓 店、新品牌及海外市场的成长空间。根据 25H1 业绩调整盈利预测，预计 25-27 年归母净利润 5.4/6.5/8.0 亿元（前值为 4.7/6.3/8.0 亿元），对应 PE 为 25/21/17X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：金价大幅波动，门店扩张不及预期，终端消费偏弱 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, despite a booming gold price market, the jewelry industry faced a wave of store closures, while the jewelry company Chaohongji (002345.SZ) achieved a net increase of 158 franchise stores, resulting in a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.48%. However, the company's profitability sharply declined in the second half of 2024, with a net loss of 122 million yuan in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 698.93% [2]. Group 1: Franchise Performance - Chaohongji operates three main brands: "CHJ Chaohongji," "VENTI Vandi," and "FION Fianie," with over 90% of revenue coming from the jewelry sector. In 2024, the national gold consumption dropped by 9.58% to 985.31 tons due to suppressed consumer demand from rising gold prices, leading to diminishing returns from the previous rapid expansion strategy through franchise stores [4][5]. - The number of franchise stores increased to 1,505 by the end of 2024, with 1,268 being franchise stores. The revenue from franchise contributions reached 3.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.35%, marking a historical high. However, the gross margin for this sales model fell to 17.25%, down from 23.97% in 2020, significantly lower than the self-operated model's 31.57% [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Challenges - From 2020 to 2024, the revenue from Chaohongji's fashion jewelry showed instability, with a 10.6% decline in 2022 and a negative growth in 2024. In contrast, traditional gold products consistently showed positive growth during the same period, with a 30.21% increase in 2024 [8]. - The gross margin for traditional gold products remained low, fluctuating around 9% from 2020 to 2024, necessitating volume growth to support profitability. The company aims to increase its store count to 2,000 by 2025, but the actual net increase in 2024 fell short of expectations, posing a significant challenge [8][9]. - The company's leather goods segment, particularly the brand "FION Fianie," has underperformed, leading to multiple goodwill impairment provisions totaling 1.77 billion yuan in 2024 due to unmet performance expectations. The revenue from this segment dropped by 27.38% to 324 million yuan [9].

Group 1 - The luxury goods industry is experiencing a slowdown in demand, prompting brands to introduce more affordable small accessories to attract customers [1][2] - According to Bain & Company, up to 25% of luxury brands are adopting this strategy to draw customers back into stores [1] - The average price of luxury goods increased by 12% annually from 2022 to the first half of 2023, leading to a significant consumer backlash [1] Group 2 - Bain estimates that the personal luxury goods market, valued at €364 billion, will lose 50 million customers in 2023 and 2024 [2] - The luxury goods sector is projected to shrink by 2% to 5% this year, marking the worst performance since the 2009 global financial crisis, excluding the pandemic period [2] - The appointment of Luca de Meo, CEO of Renault Group, as CEO of Kering, the parent company of Gucci, is seen as a positive move in an industry leaning towards closed-loop operations [2][3] Group 3 - Both the automotive and luxury goods industries are facing similar challenges, including slowing growth and pressure on profit margins [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The retail industry is experiencing a slow recovery in social consumption, with overall business pressure on retail enterprises [27][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption, suggesting that companies should focus on enhancing consumer service experiences and emotional satisfaction to drive positive accumulation [28][32] - The investment strategy highlights four main themes: gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics, each with specific recommendations for companies to watch [4][7][49] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Traditional retail is facing challenges as online traffic growth approaches its peak, and issues like e-commerce tax audits arise, making offline experiences more valuable [4][28] - The gold and jewelry sector is shifting from supply-driven to demand-driven, with emotional needs like self-appreciation and national pride becoming significant [4][36] - The cosmetics industry is witnessing a rise in domestic brands, with emotional consumption trends spreading to various segments, including functional skincare and home fragrances [41][49] Group 3: Company Recommendations - For gold and jewelry, companies like Lao Pu Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and Zhou Da Sheng are recommended for their differentiated product offerings and consumer insights [7][48] - In offline retail, companies such as Yonghui Supermarket and Ai Ying Shi are highlighted for their proactive transformation and exploration of new business models [7][48] - In the cosmetics sector, brands like Pechoin, Mao Ge Ping, and Juzi Biological are noted for their strong performance and ability to adapt to market trends [7][49] Group 4: Market Performance - The retail industry index rose by 0.88% in the week of May 6-9, 2025, but has decreased by 5.81% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the broader market [6][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest growth, with a weekly increase of 2.89% and a year-to-date increase of 15.91% [18][21] - Individual stocks such as Huazhi Wine and New Xunda saw significant weekly gains of 13.4% and 12.2%, respectively [24][25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 demonstrated a strong recovery in profitability. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.52 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 41.9%. Excluding the 180 million yuan impairment of FIOA brand goodwill, the net profit was 350 million yuan, a decrease of 5.1% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4%, but the net profit turned negative at -120 million yuan year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, up 25.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 190 million yuan, an increase of 44.4% [3] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included 2.97 billion yuan from fashion jewelry, 2.95 billion yuan from traditional gold, 270 million yuan from leather goods, and 260 million yuan from brand licensing and franchise services, with year-on-year changes of -0.6%, +30.2%, -27.4%, and +22.8% respectively [4] - Revenue by channel in 2024 showed self-operated stores at 3.02 billion yuan, franchise agents at 3.28 billion yuan, and wholesale at 190 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7.4%, +32.4%, and +41.3% respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue growth significantly outperformed the industry, with same-store sales growth of approximately 40% in January-February and about 35% in March [4] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin gold products and franchises. The gross margins for fashion jewelry and traditional gold were 28.8% (-1.9 percentage points) and 9.1% (+0.4 percentage points) respectively. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [5] - The expense ratios for 2024 were 11.7% for sales, 2.1% for management, 1.0% for R&D, and 0.5% for financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of -2.3 percentage points, -0.1 percentage points, flat, and flat respectively. In Q1 2025, the expense ratios showed a similar trend [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 1.9 billion yuan, and after excluding the impairment, the adjusted net profit was 3.5 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 5.4% (-0.9 percentage points). In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 8.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [5] Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its franchise model, with a total of 1,511 jewelry stores by the end of 2024, including a net increase of 147 franchise stores despite a broader industry trend of store closures [5] - The company successfully entered the Southeast Asian market with operations in Malaysia and Thailand, laying the groundwork for future international expansion [6] - The company maintains a strong brand positioning focused on "young, oriental fashion," which is expected to continue driving growth, with projected net profits of 470 million yuan and 570 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, leading to an upgraded rating to "strong buy" [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its operations in 2024, with a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan (down 41.9%). After excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit was 350 million yuan (down 5.11%). In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.252 billion yuan (up 25.4%) and a net profit of 189 million yuan (up 44.4%). The company focuses on the fashion gold category, leveraging its differentiated design capabilities and precise marketing to young consumers, driving continuous brand growth [4][5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 65.18 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.94 billion yuan. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 22.52 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.89 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.65 billion yuan, 5.95 billion yuan, and 7.32 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.52 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.82 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 18.9, 14.8, and 12.0 for 2025-2027 [4][5]. Product and Channel Development - The company reported a revenue breakdown for 2024: fashion jewelry at 2.97 billion yuan (down 0.6%), traditional gold at 2.95 billion yuan (up 30.2%), and leather goods at 270 million yuan (down 27.4%). The self-operated and agency channels generated revenues of 3.02 billion yuan (down 7.4%) and 3.28 billion yuan (up 32.3%) respectively [5]. - The company expanded its franchise model, adding 111 jewelry stores in 2024, with a total of 1,511 stores by year-end. The company also launched new product lines inspired by traditional Chinese culture, enhancing its market presence [6]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E include: - Revenue: 5.9 billion yuan (2023A), 6.518 billion yuan (2024A), 8.183 billion yuan (2025E), 10.002 billion yuan (2026E), 12.024 billion yuan (2027E) - Net profit: 333 million yuan (2023A), 194 million yuan (2024A), 465 million yuan (2025E), 595 million yuan (2026E), 732 million yuan (2027E) - EPS: 0.38 yuan (2023A), 0.22 yuan (2024A), 0.52 yuan (2025E), 0.67 yuan (2026E), 0.82 yuan (2027E) [7][9].