Core Viewpoint - In 2024, despite a booming gold price market, the jewelry industry faced a wave of store closures, while the jewelry company Chaohongji (002345.SZ) achieved a net increase of 158 franchise stores, resulting in a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.48%. However, the company's profitability sharply declined in the second half of 2024, with a net loss of 122 million yuan in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 698.93% [2]. Group 1: Franchise Performance - Chaohongji operates three main brands: "CHJ Chaohongji," "VENTI Vandi," and "FION Fianie," with over 90% of revenue coming from the jewelry sector. In 2024, the national gold consumption dropped by 9.58% to 985.31 tons due to suppressed consumer demand from rising gold prices, leading to diminishing returns from the previous rapid expansion strategy through franchise stores [4][5]. - The number of franchise stores increased to 1,505 by the end of 2024, with 1,268 being franchise stores. The revenue from franchise contributions reached 3.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.35%, marking a historical high. However, the gross margin for this sales model fell to 17.25%, down from 23.97% in 2020, significantly lower than the self-operated model's 31.57% [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Challenges - From 2020 to 2024, the revenue from Chaohongji's fashion jewelry showed instability, with a 10.6% decline in 2022 and a negative growth in 2024. In contrast, traditional gold products consistently showed positive growth during the same period, with a 30.21% increase in 2024 [8]. - The gross margin for traditional gold products remained low, fluctuating around 9% from 2020 to 2024, necessitating volume growth to support profitability. The company aims to increase its store count to 2,000 by 2025, but the actual net increase in 2024 fell short of expectations, posing a significant challenge [8][9]. - The company's leather goods segment, particularly the brand "FION Fianie," has underperformed, leading to multiple goodwill impairment provisions totaling 1.77 billion yuan in 2024 due to unmet performance expectations. The revenue from this segment dropped by 27.38% to 324 million yuan [9].

智通财经APP注意到，最新报告显示，随着奢侈品需求增长放缓，奢侈品牌正推出更多价格更亲民的小 型配饰，以吸引顾客到店消费。这一趋势出现之前，各大奢侈品牌近年来因价格大幅上涨而遭遇消费者 强烈抵制。 贝恩公司去年估计，2023年和2024年，价值3640亿欧元的个人奢侈品行业将流失5000万客户。 贝恩最新报告强调的最有可能出现的情况是，继去年零增长后，今年奢侈品行业将萎缩2%至5%。达皮 齐奥补充称，如果不算疫情期间，这将是自2009年全球金融危机以来奢侈品行业表现最差的一年。此 外，当时中国还在增长，但现在中国也不再增长了。 尽管在皮具、鞋履和成衣等品类推出更平价的产品难度较大，但一些品牌正在想办法解决这一问题，尤 其是通过使用纺织品。 例如，路易威登集团旗下的奢侈品牌罗意威（Loewe）以售价5200欧元(约合5980美元)的皮包闻名，目 前该品牌正在销售一款售价280欧元的抽绳袋，采用类似海绵的布料制成。 达皮齐奥称，品牌还在推出价格更低的时尚珠宝、眼镜和美妆等新品类产品，以吸引年轻消费者。2022 年至2023年上半年期间，奢侈品价格平均每年上涨12%，导致许多消费者望而却步。 达皮齐奥还表示，汽车制 ...

IP热潮席卷全球，泡泡玛特能否持续称王？ 据追风交易台消息，近日，摩根士丹利分析师Dustin Wei及其团队发布最新研报称，凭借其IP产品的病毒 式传播和社交媒体的强大助力，泡泡玛特在北美和欧洲市场的指数级增长远超预期。 大摩认为，尽管市场已充分消化泡泡玛特2025年的高速增长预期，但尚未完全反映公司长期业务规模潜 力，预计销售额将从2025年的36亿美元增长至2027年的60亿美元，成为全球增长最快的消费品牌之一。 报告指出，这种"社交顺风车效应"令泡泡玛特在北美和欧洲市场的渗透速度远超预期。 报告将泡泡玛特目标价从224港元大幅上调35%至302港元，维持"增持"评级。 全球社交媒体驱动的IP产品飞轮效应 泡泡玛特的海外爆发式增长主要归功于社交媒体的带动效应。 2024年初，韩国女团BLACKPINK成员Lisa在社交媒体展示其泡泡玛特藏品后，Labubu等产品迅速成为现 象级爆款。全球名人及影响者的自发推广，配合消费者在实体店外排队的视频病毒式传播，助推其品牌 热度飙升。 Google Trends数据显示，Labubu目前的全球搜索量已达到哈利波特、星球大战和迪士尼等知名IP的同等 水平。 Labu ...

商贸零售 商贸零售 2025 年 05 月 11 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 58% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《悦享生活，深挖情绪消费景气赛道 —2025 年零售行业中期投资策略》 -2025.5.7 《零售企业经营持续承压，关注高景 气优质公司—行业周报》-2025.5.5 《年报一季报陆续披露，关注高景气 板块优质公司—行业周报》-2025.4.27 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 陈思（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | chensi@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790124070031 | chensi@kysec.cn 零售行业 2025 年中期投资策略：悦享生活，深挖情绪消费景气赛道 本周我们发布零售行业 2025 年度中期投资策略，分板块来看，（1）传统零售： 线上流量红利接近见顶、电商查税等问题出现，反观实体店能为消费者提供视/ 触/听/嗅觉全方位体验， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 demonstrated a strong recovery in profitability. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.52 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 41.9%. Excluding the 180 million yuan impairment of FIOA brand goodwill, the net profit was 350 million yuan, a decrease of 5.1% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4%, but the net profit turned negative at -120 million yuan year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, up 25.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 190 million yuan, an increase of 44.4% [3] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included 2.97 billion yuan from fashion jewelry, 2.95 billion yuan from traditional gold, 270 million yuan from leather goods, and 260 million yuan from brand licensing and franchise services, with year-on-year changes of -0.6%, +30.2%, -27.4%, and +22.8% respectively [4] - Revenue by channel in 2024 showed self-operated stores at 3.02 billion yuan, franchise agents at 3.28 billion yuan, and wholesale at 190 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7.4%, +32.4%, and +41.3% respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue growth significantly outperformed the industry, with same-store sales growth of approximately 40% in January-February and about 35% in March [4] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin gold products and franchises. The gross margins for fashion jewelry and traditional gold were 28.8% (-1.9 percentage points) and 9.1% (+0.4 percentage points) respectively. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [5] - The expense ratios for 2024 were 11.7% for sales, 2.1% for management, 1.0% for R&D, and 0.5% for financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of -2.3 percentage points, -0.1 percentage points, flat, and flat respectively. In Q1 2025, the expense ratios showed a similar trend [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 1.9 billion yuan, and after excluding the impairment, the adjusted net profit was 3.5 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 5.4% (-0.9 percentage points). In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 8.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [5] Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its franchise model, with a total of 1,511 jewelry stores by the end of 2024, including a net increase of 147 franchise stores despite a broader industry trend of store closures [5] - The company successfully entered the Southeast Asian market with operations in Malaysia and Thailand, laying the groundwork for future international expansion [6] - The company maintains a strong brand positioning focused on "young, oriental fashion," which is expected to continue driving growth, with projected net profits of 470 million yuan and 570 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, leading to an upgraded rating to "strong buy" [6]

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 潮宏基(002345)公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 25Q1 营收净利增速亮眼，差异化品类驱动成长 ——潮宏基(002345)2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报告。 点评： 24 年女包业务计提商誉减值 1.8 亿元，25Q1 营收净利增速亮眼 2024 年公司实现营收 65.18 亿元，同比增长 10.48%，实现归属母公司净 利润 1.94 亿元，同比下降 41.91%。24 年公司对菲安妮有限公司计提商誉 减值 1.77 亿元。剔除商誉减值影响，24 年归母净利润 3.5 亿元，同比下降 5.11%。25Q1 公司实现收入 22.52 亿元，同比增长 25.36%，归母净利润 1.89亿元，同比增长44.38%，扣非归母净利润1.88亿元，同比增长46.17%。 盈利能力方面，25Q1 公司毛利率 22.93%，环比 Q4 提升 0.99pct，管理费 用率 1.30%，同比-0.5 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 潮宏基（002345） 证券研究报告 印证判断，产品结构红利释放 公司发布年报及一季报 25Q1 公司营收 23 亿，同增 25%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同增 44%，扣非后归 母净利 1.9 亿，同增 46%。 2024 年营收 65 亿，同增 10%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同减 42%，扣非后归母净 利 1.9 亿，同减 39%。 归母利润减少系计提商誉减值准 1.77 亿，公司于 2014 年完成对菲安妮 100%股权收购，形成商誉 116,267 万。 公司于2018-19 年、2022-23 年分别计提20,906 万、15159 万、8066 万和 3943 万商誉减值准备。虽然菲安妮升级和年轻化改造初见成效，但因 2024 年 国内、外整体消费环境的变化，菲安妮 2024 年业绩受到一定影响。 2024 年公司自营营收 30 亿，同减 7%，毛利率 32%，同减 0.11pct。 加盟营收 33 亿，同增 32%，毛利率 17%，同减 3pct。 批发营收 2 亿同增 7%，毛利率 7%同减 0.1pct。 2024 年公司时尚珠宝产品营收 30 亿，同减 1%。 传 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 潮宏基（002345） 证券研究报告 印证判断，产品结构红利释放 公司于2018-19 年、2022-23 年分别计提20,906 万、15159 万、8066 万和 3943 万商誉减值准备。虽然菲安妮升级和年轻化改造初见成效，但因 2024 年 国内、外整体消费环境的变化，菲安妮 2024 年业绩受到一定影响。 2024 年公司自营营收 30 亿，同减 7%，毛利率 32%，同减 0.11pct。 加盟营收 33 亿，同增 32%，毛利率 17%，同减 3pct。 批发营收 2 亿同增 7%，毛利率 7%同减 0.1pct。 2024 年公司时尚珠宝产品营收 30 亿，同减 1%。 传统黄金产品营收 29 亿，同增 30%。 代理品牌授权及加盟服务收入 2.6 亿同增 23%。 皮具收入 2.7 亿同减 27%。 公司发布年报及一季报 25Q1 公司营收 23 亿，同增 25%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同增 44%，扣非后归 母净利 1.9 亿，同增 46%。 2024 年营收 65 亿，同增 10%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同减 42%，扣非后归母净 利 1.9 亿，同减 39% ...

| 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.89 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.44/4.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 87.87 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 85.75 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.89 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.67 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 262.45 | 股价走势图 纺织服饰/饰品 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 数据来源：聚源 -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 潮宏基 沪深300 相关研究报告 《三季度营收优于行业大盘，品牌出 海开出海外首店—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.31 《二季度归母净利润+16.8%，加盟渠 道表现超预期—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.28 2025Q1 业绩高增超预期，差异化产品提升品牌势能 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 2024 ...