Core Viewpoint - In 2024, despite a booming gold price market, the jewelry industry faced a wave of store closures, while the jewelry company Chaohongji (002345.SZ) achieved a net increase of 158 franchise stores, resulting in a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.48%. However, the company's profitability sharply declined in the second half of 2024, with a net loss of 122 million yuan in Q4, a year-on-year decrease of 698.93% [2]. Group 1: Franchise Performance - Chaohongji operates three main brands: "CHJ Chaohongji," "VENTI Vandi," and "FION Fianie," with over 90% of revenue coming from the jewelry sector. In 2024, the national gold consumption dropped by 9.58% to 985.31 tons due to suppressed consumer demand from rising gold prices, leading to diminishing returns from the previous rapid expansion strategy through franchise stores [4][5]. - The number of franchise stores increased to 1,505 by the end of 2024, with 1,268 being franchise stores. The revenue from franchise contributions reached 3.284 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.35%, marking a historical high. However, the gross margin for this sales model fell to 17.25%, down from 23.97% in 2020, significantly lower than the self-operated model's 31.57% [5][6]. Group 2: Revenue and Profitability Challenges - From 2020 to 2024, the revenue from Chaohongji's fashion jewelry showed instability, with a 10.6% decline in 2022 and a negative growth in 2024. In contrast, traditional gold products consistently showed positive growth during the same period, with a 30.21% increase in 2024 [8]. - The gross margin for traditional gold products remained low, fluctuating around 9% from 2020 to 2024, necessitating volume growth to support profitability. The company aims to increase its store count to 2,000 by 2025, but the actual net increase in 2024 fell short of expectations, posing a significant challenge [8][9]. - The company's leather goods segment, particularly the brand "FION Fianie," has underperformed, leading to multiple goodwill impairment provisions totaling 1.77 billion yuan in 2024 due to unmet performance expectations. The revenue from this segment dropped by 27.38% to 324 million yuan [9].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 26 May 2025 潮宏基 CHJ Industry (002345 CH) 店均高速增长，开店节奏稳健，注重品牌系统性工程建设 yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：5 月 23 日，海通国际海外消费组调研潮宏基总部，参加公司高管交流会。公司管理层表示终端增速自 2024 年 四季度开始提升，2025 年 4 月份店均增速约 45%，5 月初至 5 月 20 日增速约为 30%。5 月门店人流量在五一假期后 有所下滑，主要是受节日透支效应影响。 差异化打法应对市场竞争，产品设计突出年轻时尚风格。面对激烈市场竞争，管理层表示，其产品始终坚持差异化 定位，不做纯粹的"量+价"竞争，更重视客户体验和品牌美誉度。公司聚焦年轻消费群体，20-40 岁消费者占比约 80%，其中 25-35 岁区间为核心人 ...

店均高速增长，开店节奏稳健，注重品牌系统性工程建设 Strong Average Store Growth, Steady Expansion Pace, Focusing on Systematic Brand Development 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 陈芳园 Ashley Chen [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 26 May 2025 潮宏基 CHJ Industry (002345 CH) yy.kou@htisec.com ashley.fy.chen@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：5 月 23 日，海通国际海外消费组调研潮宏基总部，参加公司高管交流会。公司管理层表示终端增速自 2024 年 四季度开始提升，2025 年 4 月份店均增速约 45%，5 月初至 5 月 20 日增速约为 30%。5 月门店人流量在五一假期后 有所下滑，主要是受节日透支效应影响。 ...

潮宏基 002345.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 一季度表现优异，品牌势能持续向上 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每 股收益分别为 0.53、0.61 和 0.71 元（原 25-26 年为 0.49 和 0.56 元），参考可比公 司，给予 2025 年 19 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 10.07 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、金价波动对销售的影响、女包业务持续低于预期带来的业 绩拖累和商誉减值等 | | 增持 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年05月15日） | 9.28 元 | | 目标价格 | 10.07 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 10.55/3.94 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 88,851/86,700 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 8,245 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | | | 1 周 | 1 月 | ...

潮宏基 002345.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 一季度表现优异，品牌势能持续向上 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每 股收益分别为 0.53、0.61 和 0.71 元（原 25-26 年为 0.49 和 0.56 元），参考可比公 司，给予 2025 年 19 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 10.07 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、金价波动对销售的影响、女包业务持续低于预期带来的业 绩拖累和商誉减值等 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,900 | 6,518 | 7,665 | 8,703 | 9,711 | | 同比增长 (%) | 33.6% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 13.5% | 11.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 403 | 235 | 59 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 demonstrated a strong recovery in profitability. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.52 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 41.9%. Excluding the 180 million yuan impairment of FIOA brand goodwill, the net profit was 350 million yuan, a decrease of 5.1% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4%, but the net profit turned negative at -120 million yuan year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, up 25.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 190 million yuan, an increase of 44.4% [3] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included 2.97 billion yuan from fashion jewelry, 2.95 billion yuan from traditional gold, 270 million yuan from leather goods, and 260 million yuan from brand licensing and franchise services, with year-on-year changes of -0.6%, +30.2%, -27.4%, and +22.8% respectively [4] - Revenue by channel in 2024 showed self-operated stores at 3.02 billion yuan, franchise agents at 3.28 billion yuan, and wholesale at 190 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7.4%, +32.4%, and +41.3% respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue growth significantly outperformed the industry, with same-store sales growth of approximately 40% in January-February and about 35% in March [4] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin gold products and franchises. The gross margins for fashion jewelry and traditional gold were 28.8% (-1.9 percentage points) and 9.1% (+0.4 percentage points) respectively. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [5] - The expense ratios for 2024 were 11.7% for sales, 2.1% for management, 1.0% for R&D, and 0.5% for financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of -2.3 percentage points, -0.1 percentage points, flat, and flat respectively. In Q1 2025, the expense ratios showed a similar trend [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 1.9 billion yuan, and after excluding the impairment, the adjusted net profit was 3.5 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 5.4% (-0.9 percentage points). In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 8.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [5] Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its franchise model, with a total of 1,511 jewelry stores by the end of 2024, including a net increase of 147 franchise stores despite a broader industry trend of store closures [5] - The company successfully entered the Southeast Asian market with operations in Malaysia and Thailand, laying the groundwork for future international expansion [6] - The company maintains a strong brand positioning focused on "young, oriental fashion," which is expected to continue driving growth, with projected net profits of 470 million yuan and 570 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, leading to an upgraded rating to "strong buy" [6]

[Table_Main] 公司研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 潮宏基(002345)公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 25Q1 营收净利增速亮眼，差异化品类驱动成长 ——潮宏基(002345)2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季度报告。 点评： 24 年女包业务计提商誉减值 1.8 亿元，25Q1 营收净利增速亮眼 2024 年公司实现营收 65.18 亿元，同比增长 10.48%，实现归属母公司净 利润 1.94 亿元，同比下降 41.91%。24 年公司对菲安妮有限公司计提商誉 减值 1.77 亿元。剔除商誉减值影响，24 年归母净利润 3.5 亿元，同比下降 5.11%。25Q1 公司实现收入 22.52 亿元，同比增长 25.36%，归母净利润 1.89亿元，同比增长44.38%，扣非归母净利润1.88亿元，同比增长46.17%。 盈利能力方面，25Q1 公司毛利率 22.93%，环比 Q4 提升 0.99pct，管理费 用率 1.30%，同比-0.5 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 潮宏基（002345） 证券研究报告 印证判断，产品结构红利释放 公司发布年报及一季报 25Q1 公司营收 23 亿，同增 25%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同增 44%，扣非后归 母净利 1.9 亿，同增 46%。 2024 年营收 65 亿，同增 10%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同减 42%，扣非后归母净 利 1.9 亿，同减 39%。 归母利润减少系计提商誉减值准 1.77 亿，公司于 2014 年完成对菲安妮 100%股权收购，形成商誉 116,267 万。 公司于2018-19 年、2022-23 年分别计提20,906 万、15159 万、8066 万和 3943 万商誉减值准备。虽然菲安妮升级和年轻化改造初见成效，但因 2024 年 国内、外整体消费环境的变化，菲安妮 2024 年业绩受到一定影响。 2024 年公司自营营收 30 亿，同减 7%，毛利率 32%，同减 0.11pct。 加盟营收 33 亿，同增 32%，毛利率 17%，同减 3pct。 批发营收 2 亿同增 7%，毛利率 7%同减 0.1pct。 2024 年公司时尚珠宝产品营收 30 亿，同减 1%。 传 ...

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 潮宏基（002345） 证券研究报告 印证判断，产品结构红利释放 公司于2018-19 年、2022-23 年分别计提20,906 万、15159 万、8066 万和 3943 万商誉减值准备。虽然菲安妮升级和年轻化改造初见成效，但因 2024 年 国内、外整体消费环境的变化，菲安妮 2024 年业绩受到一定影响。 2024 年公司自营营收 30 亿，同减 7%，毛利率 32%，同减 0.11pct。 加盟营收 33 亿，同增 32%，毛利率 17%，同减 3pct。 批发营收 2 亿同增 7%，毛利率 7%同减 0.1pct。 2024 年公司时尚珠宝产品营收 30 亿，同减 1%。 传统黄金产品营收 29 亿，同增 30%。 代理品牌授权及加盟服务收入 2.6 亿同增 23%。 皮具收入 2.7 亿同减 27%。 公司发布年报及一季报 25Q1 公司营收 23 亿，同增 25%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同增 44%，扣非后归 母净利 1.9 亿，同增 46%。 2024 年营收 65 亿，同增 10%，归母净利 1.9 亿，同减 42%，扣非后归母净 利 1.9 亿，同减 39% ...