纺织服饰/饰品 潮宏基（002345.SZ） 2025 年 08 月 25 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/22 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 15.20 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 18.18/4.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 135.05 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 131.83 | | 总股本(亿股) | 8.89 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.67 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 279.63 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 潮宏基 沪深300 ——公司信息更新报告 黄泽鹏（分析师） 姚慕宇（联系人） yaomuyu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125040021 2025H1 归母净利润同比+44.3%，产品升级和渠道扩张带动业绩向上 公司发布中报：2025H1 实现营收 41.02 亿元（同比+19.5%，下同）、归母净利润 3.31 亿元（+44.3%）；单 2025Q2 实现营收 18.50 亿元（+13.1% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.52 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 194 million yuan, a decrease of 41.9% due to goodwill impairment [9] - The company has shown strong performance in the jewelry segment, with significant growth in traditional gold and brand licensing services, while the handbag business faced short-term pressure [9] - The company is actively expanding its international presence, opening stores in Malaysia and Thailand, and has launched a new sub-brand focused on gifting scenarios [9] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.665 billion, 8.703 billion, and 9.711 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 17.6%, 13.5%, and 11.6% [4][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.53, 0.61, and 0.71 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][10] - The company's gross margin is expected to decline to 22.4% in 2025, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin gold jewelry products [9] - The net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 6.5% by 2027 [4][9] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of May 15, 2025, was 9.28 yuan, with a target price set at 10.07 yuan based on a 19x PE valuation for 2025 [5][10] - The company has a market capitalization of 8.245 billion yuan [5]

潮宏基 002345.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 一季度表现优异，品牌势能持续向上 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据年报，我们调整盈利预测并引入 2027 年的盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每 股收益分别为 0.53、0.61 和 0.71 元（原 25-26 年为 0.49 和 0.56 元），参考可比公 司，给予 2025 年 19 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 10.07 元，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、金价波动对销售的影响、女包业务持续低于预期带来的业 绩拖累和商誉减值等 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,900 | 6,518 | 7,665 | 8,703 | 9,711 | | 同比增长 (%) | 33.6% | 10.5% | 17.6% | 13.5% | 11.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 403 | 235 | 59 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 shows resilience with a revenue increase of 25% and a profit increase of 44%, despite a challenging 2024 impacted by asset impairment [1][3] - The revenue structure indicates a shift towards traditional gold, while fashion jewelry and leather goods face pressure; however, the franchise business is experiencing significant growth [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 81 billion, 92 billion, and 103 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 14%, and 11% [3][4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.52 billion (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit of 194 million (down 42% year-on-year) due to impairment losses [1][4] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.66 billion (up 18.4% year-on-year), but the net profit turned negative at -120 million, primarily due to a 210 million asset impairment loss [1] Store Expansion and Market Position - The company expanded its store count by 129 in 2024, reaching a total of 1,505 stores, with a notable increase in franchise stores [2] - The average GMV for franchise stores showed double-digit growth, indicating strong confidence among franchisees in the brand [2] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 4.8 billion, 5.6 billion, and 6.4 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 148%, 17%, and 15% [3][4] - The expected P/E ratios for the next three years are 17.5, 15.0, and 13.1 [3][4] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 3.0% [10] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, but the net profit margin increased to 8.4% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, showing a mixed performance with revenue growth but a significant decline in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 demonstrated a strong recovery in profitability. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.52 billion yuan, an increase of 10.5%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 190 million yuan, down 41.9%. Excluding the 180 million yuan impairment of FIOA brand goodwill, the net profit was 350 million yuan, a decrease of 5.1% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.66 billion yuan, an increase of 18.4%, but the net profit turned negative at -120 million yuan year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.25 billion yuan, up 25.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 190 million yuan, an increase of 44.4% [3] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included 2.97 billion yuan from fashion jewelry, 2.95 billion yuan from traditional gold, 270 million yuan from leather goods, and 260 million yuan from brand licensing and franchise services, with year-on-year changes of -0.6%, +30.2%, -27.4%, and +22.8% respectively [4] - Revenue by channel in 2024 showed self-operated stores at 3.02 billion yuan, franchise agents at 3.28 billion yuan, and wholesale at 190 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7.4%, +32.4%, and +41.3% respectively [4] - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue growth significantly outperformed the industry, with same-store sales growth of approximately 40% in January-February and about 35% in March [4] Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 23.6%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points, primarily due to a higher proportion of lower-margin gold products and franchises. The gross margins for fashion jewelry and traditional gold were 28.8% (-1.9 percentage points) and 9.1% (+0.4 percentage points) respectively. In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 22.9%, down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [5] - The expense ratios for 2024 were 11.7% for sales, 2.1% for management, 1.0% for R&D, and 0.5% for financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of -2.3 percentage points, -0.1 percentage points, flat, and flat respectively. In Q1 2025, the expense ratios showed a similar trend [5] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 1.9 billion yuan, and after excluding the impairment, the adjusted net profit was 3.5 billion yuan, down 5.1% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 5.4% (-0.9 percentage points). In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 8.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points [5] Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - The company is expanding its franchise model, with a total of 1,511 jewelry stores by the end of 2024, including a net increase of 147 franchise stores despite a broader industry trend of store closures [5] - The company successfully entered the Southeast Asian market with operations in Malaysia and Thailand, laying the groundwork for future international expansion [6] - The company maintains a strong brand positioning focused on "young, oriental fashion," which is expected to continue driving growth, with projected net profits of 470 million yuan and 570 million yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, leading to an upgraded rating to "strong buy" [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong resilience in its operations in 2024, with a revenue of 6.518 billion yuan (up 10.5% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 194 million yuan (down 41.9%). After excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit was 350 million yuan (down 5.11%). In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.252 billion yuan (up 25.4%) and a net profit of 189 million yuan (up 44.4%). The company focuses on the fashion gold category, leveraging its differentiated design capabilities and precise marketing to young consumers, driving continuous brand growth [4][5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 65.18 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.94 billion yuan. The revenue for Q1 2025 was 22.52 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.89 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 4.65 billion yuan, 5.95 billion yuan, and 7.32 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.52 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.82 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 18.9, 14.8, and 12.0 for 2025-2027 [4][5]. Product and Channel Development - The company reported a revenue breakdown for 2024: fashion jewelry at 2.97 billion yuan (down 0.6%), traditional gold at 2.95 billion yuan (up 30.2%), and leather goods at 270 million yuan (down 27.4%). The self-operated and agency channels generated revenues of 3.02 billion yuan (down 7.4%) and 3.28 billion yuan (up 32.3%) respectively [5]. - The company expanded its franchise model, adding 111 jewelry stores in 2024, with a total of 1,511 stores by year-end. The company also launched new product lines inspired by traditional Chinese culture, enhancing its market presence [6]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E include: - Revenue: 5.9 billion yuan (2023A), 6.518 billion yuan (2024A), 8.183 billion yuan (2025E), 10.002 billion yuan (2026E), 12.024 billion yuan (2027E) - Net profit: 333 million yuan (2023A), 194 million yuan (2024A), 465 million yuan (2025E), 595 million yuan (2026E), 732 million yuan (2027E) - EPS: 0.38 yuan (2023A), 0.22 yuan (2024A), 0.52 yuan (2025E), 0.67 yuan (2026E), 0.82 yuan (2027E) [7][9].

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 3.00 5.00 7.00 9.00 11.00 240430 240731 241031 250131 人民币(元) 成交金额(百万元) 成交金额 潮宏基 沪深300 产品力优势显著，看好公司持续跑出α，预计 25-27 年归母 净利润为 4.81/5.79/6.69 亿元，同比+148%/+20%/+15.5%， 对应 PE 分别为 19/16/14 倍，维持"买入"评级。 终端消费疲软、加盟拓展不及预期、金价剧烈波动，女包业 务恢复不及预期等。 | 项目 | 2023 2025E | 2024 | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,900 7,968 | 6,518 | 9,312 10,697 | | | 营业收入增长率 | 33.56% 10.48% 22.25% 16.86% | | | 14.87% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 333 | | | 669 | | 归母净利润增长率 | 67.41% -41.91% 148.29% 20. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to continue generating alpha returns [5]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 481 million, 579 million, and 669 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 148%, 20%, and 15.5% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [5]. - The company has a significant product strength advantage and is expected to maintain its competitive edge in the market [5]. - The report highlights that the company's traditional gold products are leading growth, while the women's bag business is under pressure [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 5,900 million RMB in 2023, 6,518 million RMB in 2024 (up 10.48% year-on-year), and further growth to 7,968 million RMB in 2025 [10]. - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to be 194 million RMB, down 41.91% year-on-year, but excluding goodwill impairment, the net profit would be 350 million RMB, a decrease of 5.11% [11]. - The diluted earnings per share are projected to be 0.375 RMB in 2023, 0.218 RMB in 2024, and increasing to 0.541 RMB in 2025 [10]. - The company has shown a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, with revenue of 22.52 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 25.36%, and a net profit of 1.89 million RMB, up 44.38% year-on-year [11]. Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its franchise network, with a net increase of 129 stores in 2024, bringing the total to 1,505 stores, of which 1,268 are franchise stores [11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product strength and brand power, targeting the younger demographic with differentiated product categories [11]. - The company is also making strides in global strategic expansion, having opened stores in Malaysia and Thailand in 2024 [11].

潮宏基发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现营收 65.18 亿 元/+10.48%，归母净利润 1.94 亿元/-41.91%，扣非归母净利润 1.87 亿 元/-38.72%，非经常性损益 0.07 亿元，主要来自公允价值变动损益。 2024Q4 公司实现营收 16.59 亿元/+18.40%，归母净利润-1.22 亿元，扣 非归母净利润-1.23 亿元。拟每 10 股派发现金红利 2.5 元（含税）。 2025Q1 公司实现营收 22.52 亿元/+25.36%，归母净利润 1.89 亿元 /+44.38%，扣非归母净利润 1.88 亿元/+46.17%。 [Table_Info1] 潮宏基(002345) 饰品/纺织服饰 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-04-30 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 公司点评报告 Q1 利润超预期，强劲产品力及品牌力持续显现 报告摘要： [Table_Summary] 事件： 点评： 轻资产运营优势显现，销售费用率持续下降。2024 年公司费用率 15.29%/-2.47pct，其中：1）销售费用 7.62 亿元/-7 ...