1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spread of bond varieties is expected to narrow periodically. The 5 - year and 10 - year China Development Bank - Treasury bond spread may have convergence opportunities as the bond market sentiment stabilizes and institutional liability - side pressure eases [1][7]. - In the short term, be vigilant against the periodic impact caused by institutions cashing in floating profits at the end of the quarter [7]. - Next week, the supply pressure of Treasury bonds will decrease, but the central bank's reverse repurchase maturity amount is large, and the central bank may restart the 14 - day reverse repurchase to cope with the tight liquidity at the end of the quarter, and the capital interest rate center may rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From September 15th to 19th, the bond market fluctuated under the influence of multiple factors such as weak fundamental data, tight liquidity, supply pressure, and policy expectations. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond ranged from 1.76% to 1.81% [12]. - Treasury bond yields generally first declined and then rose. As of September 19th, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.3900%, down 1.00bp from the previous Friday; the 10 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.8789%, up 1.19bp; the 30 - year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.1996%, up 1.56bp [15]. - Most of the key term spreads of Treasury bonds widened. The 10Y - 1Y spread of Treasury bonds widened by 2.19bp to 48.89bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 0.37bp to 32.07bp [21]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation - From September 15th to 19th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 5,923.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 18,268.00 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases, with 12,645.00 billion yuan maturing; and 1,500.00 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders, with 1,200.00 billion yuan maturing. Next week, the reverse repurchase maturity amount is 18,268.00 billion yuan, larger than the previous week [24]. - Funding interest rates generally rose. DR001 rose 9.98bp to 1.4644% from the previous week, R007 rose 7.4bp to 1.5613%, and DR007 rose 7.53bp to 1.5566%. The SHIBOR interest rate also rose [25][37]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - From September 15th to 19th, the total issuance volume of interest - rate bonds decreased compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount increased. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 15,004.49 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,517.54 billion yuan from the previous week; the total repayment scale was 10,481.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,636.79 billion yuan; the net financing scale was 4,522.85 billion yuan, an increase of 3,119.26 billion yuan [39]. - The issuance scale of government bonds decreased month - on - month, and the net financing amount decreased month - on - month. Treasury bonds were issued at 3,275.20 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,388.50 billion yuan month - on - month; local government bonds were issued at 1,885.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,131.54 billion yuan [42]. - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, the net financing amount increased month - on - month, and the issuance interest rate rose. The total issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 9,844.10 billion yuan, an increase of 2,002.50 billion yuan from the previous week; the total repayment volume was 8,500.50 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,021.20 billion yuan; the net financing amount was 1,343.60 billion yuan, an increase of 6,023.70 billion yuan [48]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Central Bank's Adjustment of 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Operation Mechanism - Since September 19, 2025, the central bank has adjusted the open - market 14 - day reverse repurchase operation to the "fixed quantity, interest - rate tender, multiple - price winning bid" method. The operation time and scale will be flexibly determined according to liquidity management needs [4]. - The adjustment has three main changes: fixed - quantity tendering to enhance market expectation stability; interest - rate tendering to promote market - oriented price discovery and clarify the core position of the 7 - day interest rate as the policy interest rate; and the introduction of a multiple - price winning bid mechanism to improve capital allocation efficiency and help the central bank observe the real pricing of medium - term liquidity [4]. - The adjustment timing has dual considerations: to meet seasonal liquidity needs and to deepen interest - rate marketization reform [5]. 3.3.2 Next Week's Outlook - The supply pressure of Treasury bonds will decrease next week. The planned issuance of Treasury bonds is 2,170.00 billion yuan, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 1,960.51 billion yuan [6]. - The central bank's reverse repurchase maturity amount is large next week, and the capital interest rate center may rise. The probability of the central bank restarting the 14 - day reverse repurchase to cope with the tight liquidity at the end of the quarter is relatively high [6]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Strategy - Recently, the bond market has been under pressure, mainly disturbed by three factors: the strengthening of M1 year - on - year, the warming of market risk appetite and the diversion of funds by the A - share market, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation pushing up commodity prices and strengthening inflation expectations [7]. - In the short term, be vigilant against the periodic impact caused by institutions cashing in floating profits at the end of the quarter. The 5 - year and 10 - year China Development Bank - Treasury bond spread may converge [7]. 3.4 Global Major Asset Classes - The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened. As of September 19, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y U.S. Treasuries changed by - 6bp, + 1bp, + 4bp, + 5bp, + 8bp, and + 7bp respectively compared with September 12th, and the 10Y - 2Y term spread widened by 7bp to 57bp [72]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and the central parity rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB was raised. Gold and silver prices rose, and crude oil trends were divided [72][74].