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市场波动尚未收敛
China Post Securities· 2025-11-24 08:04
Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a significant decline this week, with major indices unable to avoid losses. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.72%, while the ChiNext Index saw the largest drop of 6.15%. The small-cap indices, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, also performed poorly, declining by 5.78% and 5.80% respectively [4][12] - All major styles recorded negative returns, with the financial style down by 2.85%, the smallest decline among styles, while the cyclical style dropped by 6.05%, the largest [4][12] - In terms of market capitalization, large-cap stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks, maintaining the trend of larger stocks being more resilient during downturns. Core assets represented by the "Mao Index" and "Ning Combination" also saw significant declines, with the Ning Combination down 7.64% and the Mao Index down 3.63% [4][12] Industry Analysis - All primary industries experienced declines, with banking showing relative resilience. The banking sector fell by only 0.89%, while other sectors like power equipment (-10.54%), comprehensive (-9.18%), and basic chemicals (-7.47%) faced larger losses [4][15] - The A-share market's recent downturn aligns with historical patterns of retreat following previous uptrends, particularly affecting sectors like AI, resource products, and new energy, which had previously seen gains [4][15] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with the A-share market expected to remain under pressure due to a dual vacuum period in policy and performance from November to December. The lack of significant movement in household deposits suggests weaker future capital support for the market [5][33] - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining a growth style, focusing on sectors with strong performance trends and favorable policy expectations. The transition from a fast bull market driven by corporate capital to a slower bull market led by public funds is expected to be challenging [5][33] - Two specific strategies are recommended: investing in photovoltaic equipment that meets the "turnaround + high growth" criteria post-Q3 reports, and targeting commercial sectors and low-altitude economy industries that have lagged since September [5][33]
波动仍是市场底色,保持战略定力
China Post Securities· 2025-11-17 06:45
Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced significant differentiation this week, with major indices showing mixed results. The CSI A50 index rose by 0.26%, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.18%. In contrast, the ChiNext and STAR Market indices fell by 3.01% and 3.85%, respectively [3][11] - The consumer sector led the market, with significant gains in the comprehensive sector (6.99%), textiles and apparel (4.41%), retail (4.06%), beauty and personal care (3.75%), and pharmaceuticals (3.29%). Conversely, the communication and electronics sectors both dropped by 4.77% [12][30] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The dynamic HMM timing model suggests a current market position leaning towards volatility, recommending a 10.4% allocation [15] - Personal investor sentiment has shown a slight recovery, with the sentiment index moving to 3.34% as of November 15, up from -1.9% on November 8 [20][22] - Financing sentiment fluctuated throughout the week, with financing transactions remaining stable and below 20% for four consecutive trading days [24] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The market is expected to continue its volatile pattern, with limited upward potential due to a lack of significant capital inflow and an increase in planned share reductions by listed companies [4][30] - The report suggests maintaining a growth style in investment strategy, focusing on sectors that meet the "turnaround + high growth" criteria, particularly in photovoltaic equipment and commercial industries positioned for growth [30]
策略观点:市场波动延续,保持定力对待-20251109
China Post Securities· 2025-11-09 13:45
Market Performance Review - The A-share market continues to experience volatility, with large-cap indices leading the gains. The Shanghai 50 index rose by 0.89%, and the CSI 300 index increased by 0.82%, while the STAR 50 index showed a slight increase of 0.01% after significant fluctuations throughout the week [3][12] - In terms of style, cyclical stocks maintained strong performance, while stability and financial styles shifted from decline to growth compared to the previous week. Consumer stocks were the only style index to decline this week [3][12] - Large-cap stocks significantly outperformed small-cap stocks, with the core asset indices, such as the Moutai index and the Ningbo combination, both experiencing declines of 0.98% and 1.27%, respectively [3][12] Industry Insights - The third-quarter reports indicate a reversal in the "anti-involution" theme, with industries such as power equipment (up 4.98%), coal (up 4.52%), oil and petrochemicals (up 4.47%), steel (up 4.39%), and basic chemicals (up 3.54%) leading the gains. Conversely, sectors like beauty care (-3.10%), computers (-2.54%), pharmaceuticals (-2.40%), automobiles (-1.24%), and food and beverages (-0.56%) performed poorly [4][13] - The market has recognized a general profit improvement in industries aligned with the "anti-involution" theme following the third-quarter reports, gaining broader market consensus [4][13] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The outlook for the market suggests continued volatility, with a dual vacuum period in policy and performance expected from November to December. The lack of significant movement in household deposits indicates a potential weakness in future capital support, limiting upward space for A-shares [5][30] - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining a growth style, with a focus on sectors that meet the "dilemma reversal + high growth" composite pricing requirements, particularly in photovoltaic equipment. Additionally, sectors that have lagged since September and are positioned favorably in the "14th Five-Year Plan" are also recommended [5][30]