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玻璃:商品情绪回暖,盘面弱势反弹,纯碱:高供应高库存,低位弱势整理
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:04
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass shows a weak rebound due to the warming of commodity sentiment, but the medium - term demand contraction and industrial deflation persist, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak with no obvious driving force [1][4] - The overall logic of soda ash is a supply - demand surplus pattern, and a medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, although it is sensitive to policy and cost changes [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The weekly start - up rate of the float glass industry is 75.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [3] - One production line was cold - repaired this week, with a capacity of 700 tons per day. The daily output is 15.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%; the weekly output is 109.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [3] Demand - In the off - season, the shipment in various regions is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative purchasing demand is relatively weak [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% week - on - week to 69.887 million heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days are 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [3] Cost and Profit - The costs of glass made from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,138, 1,020, and 1,466 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 20, - 6, and - 7 yuan per ton [3] - The production profits are - 108.5, 83.7, and - 195.1 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 20, + 3, and - 12.3 yuan per ton [3] View and Strategy - The glass shows a weak repair market. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is no obvious driving force. Although the valuation is relatively low, considering the uncertainty of the off - season and limited positive driving forces, attention should be paid to the 1,045 pressure level [4] Soda Ash Supply - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 86.57%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The domestic soda ash output is 754,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97% [5] Demand - The sales - to - production ratio this week is 94.65%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61%, but less than 100%. The downstream demand is average, mainly for on - demand procurement [5] - There is no new investment or cold - repair of production lines in photovoltaic glass, and the downstream orders are few. The performance of float glass is mediocre, with most processing plants having scattered orders [5] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,400 tons or 2.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 812,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory is 914,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,100 tons [5] Cost and Profit - The ammonia - soda production cost is 1,259 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan per ton. The combined - soda production cost is 1,591 yuan per ton (calculated at a ratio of 75% - 80%, it is 1,193 - 1,272 yuan per ton), with no week - on - week change [5] - The profit of the ammonia - soda method is 25.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan per ton; the profit of the combined - soda method is 99.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton [5] View and Strategy - Soda ash shows a relatively poor performance. With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the market is worried about over - supply. A medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 10 - day moving average pressure [6]