Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that rising PPI leads to increased domestic industrial product prices and higher export costs, which weakens export competitiveness and results in pressure on the currency, potentially leading to depreciation [1] - An increase in PPI may also elevate CPI, prompting the central bank to tighten monetary policy, which could raise interest rates and create upward pressure on the currency [1] - Conversely, a decline in PPI suggests industrial deflation and enhanced export cost advantages, improving the current account and indicating a tendency for currency appreciation [1] Group 2 - If PPI remains low, it may trigger expectations for monetary easing, leading to lower interest rates and a tendency for currency depreciation [1] - The medium to long-term PPI reflects the internal and external supply-demand dynamics and inflation cycles, serving as a crucial indicator for the fundamentals of exchange rates [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass shows a weak rebound due to the warming of commodity sentiment, but the medium - term demand contraction and industrial deflation persist, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak with no obvious driving force [1][4] - The overall logic of soda ash is a supply - demand surplus pattern, and a medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, although it is sensitive to policy and cost changes [1][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The weekly start - up rate of the float glass industry is 75.34%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [3] - One production line was cold - repaired this week, with a capacity of 700 tons per day. The daily output is 15.54 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%; the weekly output is 109.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [3] Demand - In the off - season, the shipment in various regions is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative purchasing demand is relatively weak [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% week - on - week to 69.887 million heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days are 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [3] Cost and Profit - The costs of glass made from petroleum coke, coal, and natural gas are 1,138, 1,020, and 1,466 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of - 20, - 6, and - 7 yuan per ton [3] - The production profits are - 108.5, 83.7, and - 195.1 yuan per ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 20, + 3, and - 12.3 yuan per ton [3] View and Strategy - The glass shows a weak repair market. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is no obvious driving force. Although the valuation is relatively low, considering the uncertainty of the off - season and limited positive driving forces, attention should be paid to the 1,045 pressure level [4] Soda Ash Supply - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash this week is 86.57%, a week - on - week increase of 1.68%. The domestic soda ash output is 754,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97% [5] Demand - The sales - to - production ratio this week is 94.65%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61%, but less than 100%. The downstream demand is average, mainly for on - demand procurement [5] - There is no new investment or cold - repair of production lines in photovoltaic glass, and the downstream orders are few. The performance of float glass is mediocre, with most processing plants having scattered orders [5] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,400 tons or 2.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 812,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory is 914,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,100 tons [5] Cost and Profit - The ammonia - soda production cost is 1,259 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47 yuan per ton. The combined - soda production cost is 1,591 yuan per ton (calculated at a ratio of 75% - 80%, it is 1,193 - 1,272 yuan per ton), with no week - on - week change [5] - The profit of the ammonia - soda method is 25.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 yuan per ton; the profit of the combined - soda method is 99.5 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton [5] View and Strategy - Soda ash shows a relatively poor performance. With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the market is worried about over - supply. A medium - to long - term bearish view is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 10 - day moving average pressure [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In May, the float glass market faced dual pressures of "weak reality + weak expectation", with the price center continuing to decline. The overseas tariff risk eased, but concerns about the US debt crisis emerged, resulting in low overall risk appetite. The domestic economy shifted from "strong production, weak demand" in the first quarter to a pattern of "weak production and demand". In April, the PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the industrial deflation pattern remained. From January to April, the year - on - year decline in real estate completion expanded to 16.9%, and the medium - term demand for glass continued to shrink. Entering June, with the arrival of the rainy season and summer heat, under the expectation of the off - season, the inventory of the middle and upper reaches was high, and enterprises and traders mainly reduced prices to clear inventory, causing the spot market to operate weakly. Under the pessimistic off - season expectation, the main contract was at a discount to the spot price. On the supply side, there were still profits in the coal - based production lines, and there was insufficient motivation to reduce supply. The start - up rate and daily melting volume of glass recovered from a low level, showing supply pressure. As the prices of raw material soda ash and fuel coal continued to reach new lows, driving down the cost center of glass, which further dragged down the futures and spot prices of glass. There was no safety margin for bottom - fishing, and long positions could only be attempted when there were improvements in both supply and demand and the cost side stopped falling and stabilized [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: As of May 29, the FG2509 contract closed at 985 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 9.15% [5]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 29, the monthly change range of the spot price was between - 8.5% and 0 [5]. - **Basis**: In May, the spot quotes of glass were generally lowered. The basis in the Hubei region of the main FG509 contract was 85, with the basis first rising and then falling, and the basis rate was 8.6% [9]. - **Spread**: The spread between the FG09 - 01 contracts was - 64 points, with the near - month contract being weaker than the far - month contract. The spread between the FG01 - 05 contracts was - 52 points, showing a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength [12]. - **Term Structure and Inter - variety Spread**: Glass presented a contango structure in the forward market, with the near - month contract at par. The reality was weak, but the space was compressed. The spread between soda ash and the glass 09 contract was 218 points, 52 points narrower than on April 30 [14]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization**: In May, the capacity utilization rate increased but was lower than the same period last year. The start - up rate of the float glass industry was 76.01%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.1% [17]. - **Daily Melting Volume**: The daily melting volume of float glass recovered from a low level. Currently, it was 15.77 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The monthly average daily output was 15.66 tons. It was estimated that the glass output in May was 4.85 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%) [20]. - **Cold Repair**: In May, the cold repair was at a high level, and the loss volume was higher than the same period. The average daily loss volume of float glass in May was 43,600 tons. It was estimated that the maintenance loss volume in May was 1.35 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 6.2% and a year - on - year increase of 44.4%) [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Deep - processing Orders**: As of May 15, 2025, the average number of order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Most deep - processing enterprises intended to control the intensity of capital advance. The orders they held could maintain production. Overall, there was no significant change in the orders held by deep - processing enterprises compared with April. A small number of enterprises with sufficient capital strength could hold orders for about 20 days or even up to 30 days when advancing funds for engineering orders. Currently, some export orders of southern deep - processing enterprises had improved month - on - month [27]. - **Real Estate Situation**: From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in real estate sales area, new construction area, completion area, and development funds were - 2.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.2%), - 23.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%), - 16.9% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%), and - 4.1% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) respectively. The decline in real estate completion and funds increased [30]. 3.4 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: In May, the inventory of glass enterprises increased and was at a three - year high for the same period. Currently, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.662 million heavy boxes, with a month - on - month increase of 3.34% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06%. The inventory days were 30.6 days, 1.2 days more than in April and 5.6 days more than the same period last year [34]. - **Shahe Area Inventory**: Currently, the social inventory in the Shahe area was 3.6 million heavy boxes, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. The upstream reduced prices to clear inventory, and the inventory of middle - stream traders remained stable [37]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The cost lines of the three fuels decreased and were lower than the same period. Currently, the cost of petroleum coke - based production was 1,194 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.15%; the cost of coal - based production was 1,023 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.49%; the cost of natural gas - based production was 1,482 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.18% [42]. - **Profit**: The profits of the three fuels all declined, and the coal - based production still had positive profit. Currently, the production profit of petroleum coke - based production was - 107.04 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 68.69 yuan/ton; the production profit of coal - based production was 100.1 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 44.95 yuan/ton; the production profit of natural gas - based production was - 167.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.84 yuan/ton [45]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Currently, the main 09 contract fell below the 1,000 integer mark and the coal - based cost. Technically, the moving averages were in a short - term arrangement. Dynamically track the pressure level of the 20 - day moving average, with a reference range of 850 - 1,050 [3]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between the glass 9 - 1 contracts was currently around - 50, and the negative value was weakening. Reverse arbitrage could still be participated in [3]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Currently, the glass industry chain showed the transmission characteristics of upstream price - cutting to clear inventory, mid - stream phased inventory reduction, and downstream weakness. Currently, the inventory of upstream glass enterprises was higher than the same period, and mid - stream traders were seasonally reducing inventory. The upper and middle reaches could consider selling hedging at 1,050 - 1,100 when the futures price was at a premium or at par based on their own spot inventory and sales situation [3].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Current domestic price recovery momentum is weak, with improvements concentrated in areas related to "two new" policies, while endogenous economic momentum is relatively lacking [6] - Future demand-side shocks from US-China tariff conflicts will dominate, further deepening deflationary pressure on industrial products, dragging down corporate profits and affecting consumer confidence [6] - Sufficient policy reserves exist in China, with expectations for supply and demand policies to further exert efforts to counteract these challenges [6] Group 2: Impact on Enterprises - Private and small enterprises are more vulnerable to the impact of "reciprocal tariffs" compared to large state-owned enterprises, due to weaker risk resistance and information asymmetry [11] - Recommendations include lowering interest rates for agricultural and small enterprise loans and expanding the scale of relending to enhance financial support for these enterprises [11] Group 3: Company Analysis - Bozhong Precision Engineering (688097.SH) is a key supplier of flexible automation production line equipment for Apple, expected to benefit from product innovation and increased automation rates [17] - The company is diversifying into multiple fields such as new energy and semiconductors, creating several growth drivers [17] - Projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 399 million, 506 million, and 656 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.13, and 1.47 yuan, respectively [17] - Current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 31, 24, and 19 times for 2024 to 2026, with an initial coverage rating of "buy" [17]