1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The war in the Middle East may affect the short - term import rhythm of domestic soybean meal from some regions, and high freight rates increase the import cost. In the long run, the bumper harvest in South America still exerts pressure. The downstream demand for soybean meal is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal in the short term, with slow imports and high shipping costs. The overall demand for oils is in the off - season, and the inventory situation varies among different oils [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Supply**: In the short term, the import of soybean meal from some Middle Eastern regions faces support from rising freight rates. During the South American soybean harvest period, there will be a large supply pressure in the future. Trump may visit China from March to April, increasing the market's expectation of purchasing US soybeans [2] - **Demand**: The current demand from downstream feed mills is flat, the demand for pigs is weak, and spot transactions are poor. After the Spring Festival, the pig market is in the traditional off - season, and low pig prices suppress the expected increase in long - term feed consumption [2] - **Inventory**: China maintains a relatively high inventory pattern, with significant pressure on port raw materials and soybean meal finished product inventories [3] 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply**: The supply of raw materials has increased as previously imported Australian and Canadian rapeseeds have arrived at ports, alleviating the supply of rapeseed meal at coastal oil mills. The Middle East event has affected the market's expectation of rising freight rates. In the long - term, the supply is still relatively tight compared to soybean meal [5] - **Demand**: As the start of aquaculture (usually from April to May) has not arrived, there is only a very small amount of demand for poultry feed substitution, and the overall demand is flat [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory of coastal granular rapeseed meal has rebounded slightly from the low point, and the overall inventory level is not high [7] 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Oil mills have low short - term operating rates and low crushing volumes, which alleviate the supply pressure of soybean oil to some extent. Overseas prices are rising, and the import cost is seriously inverted, resulting in low import pressure [41] - **Demand**: The demand is in the off - season, with a decline in bulk oil trading volume. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand in the later stage [42] - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is slightly higher than the historical average, and the short - term inventory is relatively stable on a month - on - month basis. The strong short - term crude oil has driven up the prices of overseas biodiesel, soybean oil, and palm oil, and the domestic market has followed suit due to the increase in import costs [43] 3.3.2 Palm Oil - **Supply**: The March MPOB report shows that the supply has started to seasonally recover. However, due to the serious price inversion at home and abroad, near - month ship purchases are restricted, and the domestic supply increase is limited [45] - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, the demand for edible oil is weak. Palm oil has a price advantage and is used as a substitute for soybean oil [46] - **Inventory**: The inventory in the producing areas is high. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia exceeds expectations, and the inventory in the main producing countries remains at a high level [47] 3.3.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply**: The output has recovered as the crushing of imported Australian rapeseeds has alleviated the supply shortage in the East and South China markets. The anti - dumping measures against Canada may lead to uncertainties in Canadian imports. The tense situation in the Middle East has also increased market concerns about rising freight rates [49] - **Demand**: It is in the seasonal off - season, and the overall demand for oils is moderately weak [50] - **Inventory**: The inventory has shown a slowdown in the rate of decline from a low level, with a slight month - on - month increase, but it still remains relatively low [51]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a weak and volatile state during the pre - holiday demand off - season. For nickel, the short - term trend is weakly volatile due to oversupply, pre - holiday demand slump, and weak macro - sentiment. For stainless steel, it shows a short - term range - bound oscillation due to the game between cost - side support and demand off - season and inventory pressure [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2603 opened at 136,810 yuan/ton and closed at 134,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 582,524 (+100,958) lots, and the open interest was 93,478 (-5,975) lots. It showed a weak and volatile trend of opening high and closing low, with intensified intraday fluctuations. The core drivers were oversupply, pre - holiday demand off - season, and weak macro - sentiment. The strengthening of the US dollar and the overall correction of the non - ferrous sector also increased the downward pressure [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market showed a differentiated trend. Philippine mine tender prices continued to rise due to strong purchasing demand, while the domestic Chinese market was in a state of full - scale waiting and trading was almost stagnant. In the Philippines, the latest tender price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the northern mine Eramen was reported to have reached FOB 52 US dollars/wet ton, and 1.3% grade nickel ore in the Tawi - Tawi area was traded at FOB 45 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the market demand was relatively active, and the CIF receiving price of 1.4% grade nickel ore by Indonesian factories was 61 US dollars/wet ton, and that of 1.3% grade was 54 US dollars/wet ton [2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 144,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - price spot resources were mainly traded, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 50,464 (2,392) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,074 (-240) tons [3] Strategy - Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations. However, as the interference in nickel ore supply continues to ferment, there is certain support on the cost side. If the price correction is large, one can consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly range operations; Cross - period: none; Cross - variety: none; Spot - futures: none; Options: none [4][7] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 5, 2026, the stainless steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,815 yuan/ton and closed at 13,810 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 171,143 (-52,886) lots, and the open interest was 53,371 (-4,171) lots. It showed a trend of opening high, oscillating, and slightly rising at the end of the session, with mild intraday fluctuations. The core driver was the game between cost - side support and demand off - season and inventory pressure. In the short term, it was mainly range - bound. The strengthening of the US dollar and the overall correction of the non - ferrous sector also put pressure on the stainless steel price, but it showed certain resistance to decline [4][6] - **Spot**: As the Spring Festival approached, the trading activity of stainless steel significantly declined, but the quotes were basically stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium and discount was 410 to 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,037.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Similar to nickel, due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations. However, as the interference in nickel ore supply continues to ferment, there is certain support on the cost side. If the price correction is large, one can consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly range operations; Cross - period: none; Cross - variety: none; Spot - futures: none; Options: none [7]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mixed performance, with casting aluminum alloy futures experiencing a downward trend, closing at 23,110.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price limit for casting aluminum alloy futures to 7% and modified the margin requirements for maintaining positions to 8% and for general positions to 9%, effective from January 30, 2026 [2] - Supply side analysis indicates tight supply of scrap aluminum, with stable prices and an increase in imported raw materials entering the domestic market, while pre-holiday stocking demands from some enterprises are providing strong support for aluminum alloy prices [2] Group 2 - Demand side analysis reveals that due to the off-season impact, downstream die-casting enterprises have seen limited increases in actual orders, primarily focusing on replenishing essential stock and managing inventory, with insufficient stocking willingness due to high aluminum prices [2] - Future market outlook suggests that while costs for casting aluminum alloys have significantly retreated, the ongoing supply disruptions and seasonal tightness in raw material supply are expected to provide strong short-term price support [2]

Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil price continues to oscillate. Kazakhstan is about to lift export restrictions, and the IEA expects an oversupply in the global oil market in 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of the cold wave in the US on the oil and gas market [1]. - The relatively strong variety in the chemical chain is aromatics. Styrene has risen significantly, but there is a possibility of profit compression between April and May [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to be volatile, with geopolitical risks remaining a factor for the crude oil market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Market News**: India's Reliance Industries will receive Russian oil in February and March; US crude and gasoline inventories increased last week [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply - surplus pattern persists. The cold wave in the US drives up natural gas prices and supports diesel crack spreads. Geopolitical factors are the main short - term concern, and the oil price may fluctuate depending on the development of the Iranian situation [6]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. Supply pressure continues, but geopolitical premiums may vary [6]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, the asphalt futures and spot prices are provided [7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ suspends production increase in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will lead to sufficient long - term asphalt supply. Current high - valuation is expected to decline due to factors such as increased supply and weak demand [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with a weakening trend. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to fall [7]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is given [7]. - **Main Logic**: The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela puts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical premiums have returned, but long - term factors such as high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the replacement of fuel oil by other energy sources are negative [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The growth of Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, and short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [7]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is provided [9]. - **Main Logic**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. The increase in US natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. It is affected by green fuel substitution but has a relatively low valuation and follows the movement of crude oil [9]. 3.1.5 PX - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, PX prices and related data are presented [10]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices oscillate, and PX has a short - term profit support. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the floating price is weak. The anti - arbitrage structure between PX03 and PX05 is clear [11]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. PXN is expected to be in the range of [300, 350] US dollars per ton [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, PTA prices, processing fees, and downstream sales data are given [11]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX supply is abundant, and PTA spot profits continue to expand. The market lacks new drivers, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation [12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term range - bound oscillation. The TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - arbitrage logic, and the processing fee is expected to expand slightly [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, pure benzene prices and related data are provided [13]. - **Main Logic**: The East China pure benzene port has started to destock. Downstream profit - locking, the possible cancellation of US tariffs on South Korean pure benzene, and the low valuation of pure benzene contribute to its price increase [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. High inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, styrene prices, costs, and profits are presented [17]. - **Main Logic**: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and a positive commodity atmosphere drive up the styrene price. The supply - demand pattern is favorable in January, and it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with a strengthening trend. If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, ethylene glycol prices and trading information are given [18]. - **Main Logic**: The arrival of overseas shipments is concentrated, and the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is significant. The weak pattern is difficult to reverse [19]. - **Outlook**: Short - term range - bound operation. The long - term inventory accumulation pressure limits the rebound height, and the operation range is [3700 - 3900] yuan per ton [19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, short - fiber prices, sales, and inventory data are provided [20]. - **Main Logic**: The cost supports the price, but downstream orders are weakening, and the short - fiber is about to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [21]. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream movement, and the processing fee is under pressure [21]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, polyester bottle chip prices, processing fees, and export information are given [22]. - **Main Logic**: The price of polyester bottle chips follows the increase of upstream raw materials, and the supply reduction leads to profit expansion. It is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation in the short term [22]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw material fluctuation, and the support for the processing fee is enhanced [22]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, methanol prices, inventory, and device information are provided [24]. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the port inventory is increasing. The short - term negative factors are stronger than the positive ones, but the basis is slightly strong, and the price oscillates [24]. - **Outlook**: Short - term range - bound oscillation [24]. 3.1.13 Urea - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, urea prices, production, and inventory data are given [25]. - **Main Logic**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is relatively rigid. The inventory is decreasing, but the actual transaction volume is difficult to expand, and the market is in a stalemate [25]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation. The market lacks clear guidance, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, LLDPE prices, basis, and overseas price information are provided [28]. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - surplus pattern persists. The fundamental pressure is released, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering the macro - consumption policy expectations, the price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [28]. 3.1.15 PP - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, PP prices, basis, and overseas price information are provided [29]. - **Main Logic**: Similar to LLDPE, the oil price oscillates, and the profit has been repaired. The downstream is in the off - season, but the short - term support from maintenance and macro - expectations exists, and the price is expected to oscillate [29]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [29]. 3.1.16 PL - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, PL prices and basis are provided [30]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation provides support. The propylene supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [30]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, PVC prices, costs, and related data are provided [32]. - **Main Logic**: The export tax - rebate cancellation may lead to short - term "rush - to - export" behavior, but the long - term supply - demand situation is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [32]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [32]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Market News**: On January 21, 2026, caustic soda prices, costs, and related data are provided [33]. - **Main Logic**: The inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. The cost is stable, and the profit may be squeezed. The price is expected to be weak [33]. - **Outlook**: Weakening [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are presented, along with their changes [35]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, showing the latest values and changes [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although there are headings for each variety, no specific content is provided for analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of commodities are presented, including their values and percentage changes [278][279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry is over - valued, so it should be treated with a volatile mindset. The industry may continue to fluctuate strongly, but it is not recommended to chase more [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to risks in Iran. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium fluctuates. The price of oil will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions. Short - term focus is on the risk of price surges related to Iranian geopolitics [4][7]. - **Logic**: Expectations of increased sanctions by the US on Russia or Iran fuel supply concerns, and the situation in Iran is highly uncertain. The US - Venezuela crude oil trade may increase, and there may be a potential impact of Venezuelan sanctioned oil on the compliant oil market. Geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Supply pressure continues, but the geopolitical premium is unstable, so it should be viewed as volatile in the short term [4][7][8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. The US is cooperating with Venezuela to receive its oil, and partial sanctions on Venezuela are lifted. This supports asphalt costs but may lead to sufficient supply in the long - term. Hainan's asphalt production has increased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak with inventory accumulation and reduced demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and its medium - to long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil futures has declined due to the pressure from Venezuelan heavy oil [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ suspends production increases in Q1. Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, increasing heavy - oil supply. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and its substitution by natural gas and photovoltaic energy [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [11]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures is oscillating upward [4]. - **Logic**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. There are some supporting factors, but it also faces challenges such as reduced shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. Its valuation is low and it is expected to follow crude oil price movements [12]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3.5 Methanol - **View**: Methanol is expected to be stable with a weakening trend, as inventory pressure is significant and MTO demand is weak [4]. - **Logic**: The domestic supply is relatively abundant, while downstream demand is weak. Port inventory is high, and there are plans for some MTO plants to shut down, which may further weaken demand [28]. - **Outlook**: Weakening in the short term [28]. 3.6 Urea - **View**: The actual trading volume has slowed down, and urea is oscillating and consolidating [4]. - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level of around 200,000 tons per day, while the procurement from traders and compound fertilizer factories has slowed down, resulting in a lack of trading enthusiasm [29]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Without a significant change in fundamentals, the market is closely related to order transactions. It may be stable with a weakening trend in the short term [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and inventory tank capacity is tight [4]. - **Logic**: The recent arrival of a large number of vessels has led to a significant increase in inventory, causing the spot basis to weaken and reducing traders' willingness to hold goods [20][22]. - **Outlook**: The price will be range - bound in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [22]. 3.8 PX - **View**: The loosening of polyester demand exerts pressure on upstream raw materials [4]. - **Logic**: International oil prices are rising, and naphtha prices are increasing due to cost factors. Although PTA demand provides some support, the supply from domestic and foreign PX plants is increasing. The short - term PX profit is adjusting downward from a high level [13]. - **Outlook**: The PX price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton. The profit decline is limited [13]. 3.9 PTA - **View**: There are concentrated reports of polyester production cuts, putting pressure on the basis and processing fees [4]. - **Logic**: The upstream cost still provides some support, and the PTA supply - demand situation is currently stable. However, the concentrated production cuts in the downstream polyester industry may lead to a weaker basis and limited processing fee space [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate with costs. In the medium term, consider going long on the TA05 contract on dips, and short - term shorting in the 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton range. Look for positive spreads on TA05 - 09 on dips [15]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price fluctuation has narrowed, and the sales are stable [4]. - **Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has slightly declined, and the short - fiber price is range - bound. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the market demand is stable [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the movement of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee is under some pressure [24]. 3.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: More plants are under maintenance in January, and profit support is strengthening [4]. - **Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has slightly declined, and the bottle - chip market price has followed the cost movement. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the profit is expected to recover. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly before the festival, and the processing fee has stronger support [25]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom [25]. 3.12 Styrene - **View**: Driven by exports and a positive market atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently [4]. - **Logic**: Exports are good, with confirmed exports of 48,000 tons in January and 12,000 tons in February. Port inventory has decreased, and market sentiment is positive. Macro and crude oil factors are also positive. The supply - demand situation is favorable in January, but there may be a risk of price correction if there is an unexpected increase in supply [18]. - **Outlook**: If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, driven by repeated export news [18]. 3.13 PVC - **View**: There is a short - term "rush to export", which supports PVC [4]. - **Logic**: The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term "rush to export". However, the long - term inventory pressure is large. Domestically, supply elasticity has increased, while overseas, the US Olin VCM plant has restarted. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the sustainability of "rush to export" orders is uncertain [37]. - **Outlook**: The short - term "rush to export" supports the price, but the long - term price may face pressure due to the possible poor sustainability of exports and high inventory [38]. 3.14 Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is operating weakly [4]. - **Logic**: The production remains high, and inventory pressure is large. Demand from the alumina industry is weak, and non - aluminum downstream demand is also poor. Although the price of liquid chlorine limits the decline of caustic soda, the overall supply - demand situation is under pressure [39]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains under pressure, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the decline limited by liquid chlorine [39]. 3.15 LLDPE - **View**: Driven by a positive macro sentiment, LLDPE is oscillating upward [33]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors continue to affect supply expectations. The futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro expectations and positive market sentiment, but the profit of various production methods has slightly recovered, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [33]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [33]. 3.16 PP - **View**: Boosted by the macro environment but with reduced downstream trading volume, PP is oscillating upward [34]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors affect supply expectations. The macro environment is positive for PP, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased after the price rebound. The short - term maintenance rate has slightly decreased [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [34]. 3.17 PL - **View**: Some downstream plants have restarted, and PL is oscillating upward [35]. - **Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations provide support. Propylene enterprise inventory is controllable, and downstream demand has increased slightly. However, the demand is still limited in the off - season [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [35]. 3.18 Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026, with increases of 1.57%, 1.85%, 1.27%, and 1.31% respectively [287]. - **Energy Index**: On January 12, 2026, the energy index was 1102.68, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 1.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48% [288].

Core Viewpoint - The European shipping index futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 1210.3 points and closing at 1220.4 points, reflecting a decrease of 3.81% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The SCFI European line index was reported at 1719 USD/TEU on January 9, marking a 1.7% increase from the previous period [2]. - Major shipping companies have adjusted their rates, with HPL reducing the large container rate by 300 USD to 2735 USD and CMA lowering it by 200 USD to 3893 USD [2]. - The geopolitical situation, particularly the submission of a candidate list by Hamas to Egypt for the future management of Gaza, is influencing market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Guangzhou Futures suggests that the shipping price is fluctuating due to capital speculation, recommending cautious operations [2]. - Guotai Junan Futures advises a light short position on the European shipping index, emphasizing the importance of monitoring opening guidance and the impact of export tax rebate policies on market dynamics [2]. - The analysis indicates that the shipping capacity before, during, and after the 2026 Chinese New Year shows varying growth rates, with post-holiday capacity growth significantly higher than pre-holiday levels [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the domestic futures market for styrene has shown mixed performance, with styrene futures experiencing fluctuations and a notable increase in price [1] - As of January 8, the overall production of styrene in China reached 355,700 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3,500 tons, or 0.99% [2] - The capacity utilization rate for styrene factories was reported at 70.92%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.69% [2] Group 2 - The latest inventory of styrene stands at 162,000 tons, with East China port inventory at 132,300 tons, indicating expectations for continued inventory reduction [2] - Nanhua Futures noted that there were no new maintenance schedules for styrene facilities this week, and the market sentiment remains strong due to frequent export news and downstream factory purchases [2] - Newhu Futures suggested that while short-term styrene prices may remain strong due to market sentiment and inventory reduction, there are limitations on the upper price levels due to potential increases in production and uncertainties regarding raw material price sustainability [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The overall situation of pure benzene shows strong supply and weak demand, and it should still be treated weakly; benzene styrene is in the seasonal off - season demand in the first quarter, with obvious demand pressure, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%; from December 22 to 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the pick - up was about 12,500 tons; 3 out of the statistical storage areas increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of benzene styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period; the commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period; according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The short - term large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates of some banks have entered the "0 -字头", similar to ordinary fixed deposits [2] - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year; China's December CPI annual rate was 0.8%, with an expected 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with strong upward pressure and a supply - strong and demand - weak state, and is still treated weakly [3] - Benzene styrene fluctuated slightly, with attention paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line level; in the first - quarter off - season, it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of overall commodities, but the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in the off - season demand in the first quarter. Although it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should appropriately participate in hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 - 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Trump and his advisors are planning a large - scale plan to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry in the coming years, aiming to push the oil price down to $50 per barrel [2] - On January 8, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.1 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand [3] - Styrene fluctuated slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. Affected by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, it may be boosted to some extent, but the demand pressure is still obvious [3][4]