Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued, with good static fundamentals and positive dynamic forecasts. It's a good time for left - hand side layout, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, current reality is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It's recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but with low corporate profits, the downside is limited. There is a lack of upward drivers, but when positive factors emerge, prices may break out of the consolidation range. It's advisable to focus on long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, NR and RU are showing a strengthening trend in the oscillation. It's recommended to take a neutral view and wait and see in the short term, and consider a band - trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][10] - For PVC, it has a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It's necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It's recommended to wait and see [10] - For benzene styrene, the cost side has support, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [12] - For PX, it has high load, and with new PTA installations, it's expected to continue de - stocking. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following crude oil when the peak season arrives [18][19] - For PTA, there is expected continuous inventory build - up, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. It's recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips following PX when downstream performance improves in the peak season [20] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21] Summary by Category Crude Oil - As of last Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.79, a 1.24% decline, at $63.14; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.76, a 1.14% decline, at $66.13; INE main crude oil futures closed up 4.40 yuan, a 0.91% increase, at 486.3 yuan [1] - European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.63 million barrels to 8.75 million barrels, a 6.76% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.73 million barrels to 13.89 million barrels, a 5.56% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.20 million barrels to 6.75 million barrels, a 3.00% increase; naphtha inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels to 5.72 million barrels, a 15.25% increase; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.50 million barrels to 7.29 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 42.40 million barrels, a 3.78% increase [1] Methanol - On August 15, the 01 contract dropped 23 yuan/ton to 2412 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 87 [4] - Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production is gradually bottoming out and rising, and overseas installations are at a high level, so imports will gradually increase, resulting in large supply pressure [4] - Traditional demand has low profits, and attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October". Olefin profits have improved, but port operation rates are low, and demand is weak [4] Urea - On August 15, the 01 contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 37 [6] - Domestic production has turned from decline to increase, and corporate profits are still low but are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. Production is still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and overall supply is relatively loose [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is ending and will enter the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is rising, and finished product inventory is at a high level. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] Rubber - NR and RU are strengthening in the oscillation [8] - As of August 14, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.07%, up 2.09 percentage points from last week and 7.42 percentage points from the same period last year. Domestic and export orders for all - steel tires are normal. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.25%, down 2.28 percentage points from last week and 6.41 percentage points from the same period last year. Export orders for semi - steel tires are weak [9] - As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, down 1.1 tons from the previous week, a 0.85% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 79.7 tons, down 0.8%; the total inventory of light rubber was 48 tons, down 0.8%. RU inventory increased by 1%. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 48.72(-1.4) tons [9] PVC - The PVC09 contract dropped 16 yuan to 4954 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850(-10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 104(+6) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 143(+11) yuan/ton [10] - The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall PVC operating rate was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. Among them, the calcium carbide method was 80%, up 1.3%; the ethylene method was 81.3%, down 0.2% [10] - The overall downstream operating rate was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5) [10] Benzene Styrene - Spot prices dropped, futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [12] - The market's macro - sentiment is good, and the cost side still has support. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with large upward repair space [12] - The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and production is rising. Port inventory is continuously and significantly decreasing, and the demand - side operating rate of three S products is oscillating upwards [12] PX - The PX11 contract rose 74 yuan to 6688 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 827 dollars, the basis was 115 yuan (-46), and the 11 - 1 spread was 6 yuan (+10) [18] - China's PX load was 84.3%, up 2.3% from the previous period; Asian load was 74.1%, up 0.5% [18] - Some domestic and overseas installations had restarts and shutdowns. PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. In August, South Korea's PX exports to China were 11.2 tons, down 0.5 tons from the same period last year [18] PTA - The PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4676 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 10 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (-14) [20] - PTA load was 76.4%, up 1.7%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns. Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63% [20] - As of August 8, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 227.3 tons, up 3.3 tons from the previous period [20] Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract rose 2 yuan to 4369 yuan, the spot price in East China dropped 6 yuan to 4462 yuan, the basis was 88 yuan (+6), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 43 yuan (+4) [21] - The supply - side load was 66.4%, down 2%. Among them, synthetic gas - based production was 80.5%, up 5.3%; ethylene - based production was 57.9%, down 6.4%. Some installations had restarts and shutdowns [21] - Downstream load was 89.4%, up 0.6%. Terminal draw - texturing load rose 2% to 72%, and loom load rose 4% to 63%. The expected import volume was 14.1 tons, and the outbound volume from East China on August 14 was 0.67 tons. Port inventory was 55.3 tons, up 3.7 tons [21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7381 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 283252 lots and an increase of 18065 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7386 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.05%), with a trading volume of 15253 lots and an increase of 754 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7320 yuan/ton, closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 212562 lots and a decrease of 20560 lots in open interest [5] - PP2601: Opened at 7128 yuan/ton, closed at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 329308 lots and an increase of 24541 lots in open interest [5] - PP2605: Opened at 7104 yuan/ton, closed at 7099 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 19306 lots and an increase of 4910 lots in open interest [5] - PP2509: Opened at 7085 yuan/ton, closed at 7081 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 141836 lots and a decrease of 23955 lots in open interest [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened lower, fluctuated up and down during the session, and finally closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.2%). The trading volume was 160,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20,560 to 212,562 lots. The main contract of PP switched to 2601, closing at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with an increase of 24,500 lots in open interest to 329,300 lots [6] - Supply: The operating load of upstream plants continued to increase. Although the maintenance loss of PP was still at a high level, as the previously shut - down plants were gradually restarted and there were not many newly added maintenance plants, the impact of maintenance decreased. With the approaching of the 900,000 - ton/year capacity expansion plan of Ningbo Daxie Phase II, the incremental pressure on the supply side gradually emerged. For PE, the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical at the end of July further expanded the production capacity base, and attention was paid to the new capacity addition of ExxonMobil Huizhou in August [6] - Demand: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season. Coupled with the pressure of losses, the willingness to stock up was low. It was expected that the demand would gradually get out of the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost: The coal price was likely to rise due to coal mine production inspections and the peak summer coal - using season. The oil price might fall again due to the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and the under - expected performance in the peak season [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict the upward space. With the continuous release of new production capacity and the expected stocking demand driven by the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin price might show a trend of bottom - building and then rebounding [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.45%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 815,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and the market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders reported prices with narrow fluctuations. The LDPE prices were firm, and downstream buyers purchased according to orders. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7200 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6530 yuan/ton. The profit margins of downstream products were compressed, and the willingness to accept propylene prices decreased. The demand support for propylene weakened. Production enterprises mostly offered small discounts to promote transactions, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average [13] - PP Market: The PP market was mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6930 - 7090 yuan/ton, in East China were 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - In July, influenced by macro - policies such as "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", black - series coking coal and coke led the rise. Stable - economy policies from meetings boosted the polyolefin futures. After the digestion of positive factors, prices returned to fundamental trading. With multiple new plants coming into operation in July and more to come, the supply - side pressure is high. Currently in the maintenance season, the pressure from new capacity expansion is temporarily offset. OPEC+ production - increase plans dragged down oil prices, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season, with limited highlights expected. Mid - and upstream inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher compared to the same period [1][2]. - Domestic new plants: Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant and Yulong Petrochemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP plant were successfully put into operation in July. Many other plants are waiting to start production, indicating continuous growth in domestic polyolefin new - plant capacity. For domestic existing plants, PE maintenance losses are at a high level year - on - year, some PDH plants have restarted, and PDH - made PP plant maintenance has decreased. Overseas, no new plants were put into operation in July, and overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties and delays may be common. Overseas PE and PP operating rates have decreased slightly. The LLDPE import window is closed, and China's PE and PP imports are continuously decreasing [2]. - In terms of inventory and demand, downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film has a slight rebound, while the demand for packaging film is weak. The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products fluctuates slightly. The demand side is expected to remain weak. Mid - and upstream polyolefin inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: L09 - L01 reverse spread, PP09 - PP01 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report provides charts of the main contract trends, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of LL and PP, including LL North China - main contract basis, L1 - L5, L5 - L9, L9 - L1 for LL, and PP East China - main contract basis, PP1 - PP5, PP5 - PP9, PP9 - PP1 for PP [15]. 4.2 Polyolefin Production Plan - Domestic: Multiple plants have been put into operation in 2025, and many are waiting to start production, such as ExxonMobil Huizhou's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant. The total planned production capacity of new domestic plants is large, indicating continuous growth in domestic supply [18][20]. - Overseas: Some plants were put into operation in 2025, and many are in the un - started state. Overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties, and delays may be common [22]. 4.3 Polyolefin Maintenance Plan - PE: The maintenance season of PE plants has ended, and maintenance losses have increased. The report shows historical maintenance data of PE, oil - based PE, coal - based PE, and alkane - based PE [23][36]. - PP: PP plant maintenance losses fluctuate slightly, and the maintenance volume of PDH - made PP plants is still at a high level [36]. 4.4 Polyolefin Monthly Output - In June, domestic PE output was 2.555 million tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from May. LLDPE output decreased by 44,000 tons, HDPE increased by 27,000 tons, and LDPE decreased by 33,000 tons. Domestic PP output was 3.165 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from May. PP fiber output increased by 12,000 tons, PP homopolymer decreased by 10,000 tons, and PP copolymer remained unchanged [47]. 4.5 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE: The production profit of oil - based PE is - 130 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 90.2%, an increase of 6.3% from last month. With the restart of maintenance plants, the operating rate is expected to increase [62]. - PP: The production profit of oil - based PP is - 522 yuan/ton, and that of PDH - made PP is 394 yuan/ton. The PDH - made PP operating rate is rising. The overall PP operating rate is 83.6%, a decrease of 0.6% from last month [62]. 4.6 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread and Operating Ratio - PE: The production ratio of LLDPE and HDPE has decreased, while that of LDPE has increased. The operating ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE has changed accordingly. The non - standard price spreads between HD injection - LL and LDPE - LLDPE have different trends [69]. - PP: The production ratios of PP fiber and PP copolymer injection have decreased, while that of PP non - standard homopolymer injection has increased. The operating ratios of different PP products have also changed, and the non - standard price spread between PP low - melt copolymer and PP fiber has declined [69]. 4.7 Polyolefin Outer - market Price Spread and Import - Export Profit - LL: The import profit in East China is - 26 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 69 US dollars/ton. The import window is closed, and China's PE imports are decreasing [85]. - PP: The import profit of PP fiber in East China is - 445 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 26 US dollars/ton. China's PP imports and exports have decreased [85]. 4.8 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE: The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film is 27%, an increase of 10% from last month. The operating rate of PE's downstream packaging film is 51%, remaining unchanged from last month [109]. - PP: The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products is 41%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream BOPP is 58%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream injection molding remains unchanged [109]. 4.9 Polyolefin Downstream Inventory and Order Situation - PE: The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream agricultural film are 8.1 days, remaining unchanged from last month. The order days are 2.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream packaging film are 7.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from last month. The order days are 8.1 days, an increase of 0.2 days from last month [115]. - PP: The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream BOPP are 9.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from last month. The order days are 8.7 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream woven products are 6.7 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 6.1 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The order days are 6.9 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month [115]. 4.10 Polyolefin Actual Inventory - The upstream petrochemical inventory is 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last month. As the downstream is still in the off - season in August, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [130].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on short positions [1] - L: Continue short positions [1] - PP: Continue short positions [1] - PVC: Sideways [1] - PX: Bearish [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish on rebounds [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullbacks [2] - Soda ash: Narrow - range sideways [2] - Caustic soda: Slowdown in upward trend [2] - Methanol: Bearish on rebounds [2] - Urea: Short - term rebound in a bear market [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Weak sideways [2] Core Views - The supply pressure of the oil market is gradually rising, and the oil price is weak. The supply - demand pattern of most chemical products is weak, with cost support weakening and inventory accumulation in some cases. Some products are affected by policy expectations and new capacity releases [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI dropped 2.00%, Brent dropped 0.28%, and SC dropped 0.45% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. Although it is in the consumption peak season, the pressure brought by OPEC's production increase is gradually released, and the oil price center still has room to decline. Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons. China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.4% from January to June. The EIA data shows that as of the week of July 11, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to factors such as the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC +'s expansion cycle, the supply of crude oil will be in excess, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 US dollars per barrel. In the short term, it is recommended to lightly short and buy call options for protection. Focus on SC [505 - 525] [5] LPG - **Market situation**: On July 16, the PG main contract closed at 4108 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.25%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased to varying degrees [7] - **Basic logic**: With the production increase of OPEC +, the supply pressure of LPG is increasing. Two PDH plants are planned to restart at the end of the month, providing some support. As of July 11, the LPG commodity volume decreased, and the PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil operating rates changed. Refinery and port inventories increased [8] - **Strategy recommendation**: After the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. Currently, the ratio of LPG to crude oil is high, so it is recommended to take profit on previous short positions. Focus on PG [4000 - 4100] [9] L - **Market situation**: Both futures and spot prices declined. The North China basis was - 64 (down 23 compared to the previous period) [11] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, the 9 - 1 spread has turned negative, and the basis is at a low level. Although recent device maintenance has alleviated supply pressure marginally, 2.05 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production from July to August, with a weak medium - to - long - term outlook. The agricultural film operating rate has increased month - on - month [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on L [7150 - 7300] [12] PP - **Market situation**: The East China basis was 80 (down 14 compared to the previous period). The market is expected to continue to be weak [15] - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, and recent warehouse receipts have been increasing. Enterprises and traders' inventories have decreased this week, but there are more device restart plans in the future. 2 million tons of new capacity are planned to be added in the third quarter, with long - term supply pressure. From January to May, exports increased by 22% year - on - year, and export profits are positive [16] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on PP [6950 - 7100] [16] PVC - **Market situation**: The Changzhou basis was - 94 (up 31 compared to the previous period). The spot price is expected to be weakly sideways [19] - **Basic logic**: Short - term policy expectations have weakened, and trading has returned to the weak fundamental situation. Social inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and new capacity is being released. Both domestic and foreign demand are in the off - season. In July, the supply - demand pattern tends to accumulate inventory. However, due to the expected Politburo meeting at the end of the month and the stabilization of coal prices, there is support at the bottom [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. Focus on V [4900 - 5100] [20] PX - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged compared to the previous period), and the PX09 contract closed at 6694 (- 88) yuan/ton [22] - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, while overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and PX inventories are still relatively high. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+ 5.3) US dollars/ton [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on PX [6650 - 6750] [23] PTA - **Market situation**: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (- 20) yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4700 (- 42) yuan/ton [24] - **Basic logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. Downstream polyester production cuts are ongoing, and the terminal weaving operating rate is declining. Inventory is being depleted, and the basis is weakening [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on TA [4650 - 4710] [26] MEG - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (- 3) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4305 (- 20) yuan/ton [27] - **Basic logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing. The demand is expected to weaken, and the polyester operating rate is declining. The social inventory has stopped falling, and the port inventory is low [28] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities on rallies. Focus on EG [4300 - 4360] [29] Glass - **Market situation**: Spot market quotes were lowered, the futures price corrected, the basis fluctuated narrowly, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [32] - **Basic logic**: At the macro level, policies on backward capacity exit and coal - fired production line technological transformation are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. In the short term, due to high - temperature conditions, the market is restricted. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, production has increased slightly, and inventories have continued to decline [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Focus on FG [1060 - 1090] [32] Soda ash - **Market situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was lowered, the futures price closed down, the main - contract basis widened, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts remained unchanged [34] - **Basic logic**: Although the high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, the impact of policy speculation has weakened, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventories again. The supply is at a high level, and inventory removal is difficult. Downstream support is okay, but terminal consumption is weak [35] - **Strategy recommendation**: Treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking. Focus on SA [1200 - 1230] [2] Caustic soda - **Market situation**: The spot price of caustic soda was partially lowered, the futures price dropped from a high level, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [37] - **Basic logic**: The supply side has a summer maintenance season inventory - removal expectation, and the new capacity is expected to be put into production. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The downstream alumina operating rate has increased, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory has decreased [38] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold long positions cautiously. Focus on SH [2460 - 2510] [38] Methanol - **Market situation**: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (- 23) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2370 (- 28) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls are ongoing, but the comprehensive operating load remains relatively high. Overseas devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, and the coastal MTO external - procurement device load has continued to decline. Social inventories are accumulating [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on MA [2345 - 2375] [2] Urea - **Market situation**: The supply is under pressure, with a daily output of nearly 200,000 tons. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand has weakened month - on - month, but the fertilizer export growth rate is fast [2] - **Basic logic**: The cost support still exists, and the basis is strong. The domestic urea fundamentals are still relatively loose, and there is short - term speculation on urea exports [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly go long. Focus on UR [1725 - 1755] [2] Asphalt - **Market situation**: The cost - side oil price has declined, and the raw material supply is sufficient. The supply has decreased slightly, and inventories are accumulating [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the current cracking spread is at a high level, with high valuation [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus on BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market situation**: The cost - side prices of crude oil and propane have continued to fall, and the cost support has weakened [2] - **Basic logic**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, some PP devices are shut down for maintenance, and new capacity in East China and Shandong is about to be put into production, putting pressure on the supply [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rallies. Focus on propylene in the range of [6200 - 6350] [2]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, with expectations for the second half of the year to focus on short-selling and selling call options [1][8]. Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices fluctuated widely in the first half of the year, reaching a high of 136,000 yuan/ton in Q1 due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but fell back in Q2 due to oversupply [1]. - The price dynamics were influenced by various factors, including Indonesia's RKAB quota adjustments and the Philippines' export bans, which significantly impacted market reactions [1][2]. Policy Impact on Supply - Indonesian and Philippine nickel policies aim to increase industry revenue, categorized into "quantity" and "price" controls, with quantity controls having a more direct but challenging implementation [2]. - The likelihood of significant supply cuts is low, as both countries face resistance to drastic measures that could impact production and employment [2]. Production and Cost Trends - Nickel iron costs have risen due to tight supply of high-grade nickel ore, while demand from stainless steel has weakened, leading to price pressures [3][4]. - The production capacity of MHP and high-nickel products continues to expand, but the pace of new project launches may slow due to declining nickel prices [3][4]. Demand Dynamics - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, has seen production growth, but overall demand is expected to remain weak due to high inventory levels and lackluster real estate market performance [6][8]. - The electric vehicle sector, a significant source of nickel demand, is facing challenges as competition increases and the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries rises [7]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for nickel prices remains bearish, with expectations for seasonal supply increases in Q3 potentially leading to further price declines [8]. - Despite the downward pressure, there may be temporary price increases due to conflicting interests between resource countries and market dynamics [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that MP Materials will receive significant investment from the U.S. Department of Defense, which is expected to enhance the domestic production capacity of rare earth magnets and potentially raise the price ceiling for praseodymium and neodymium products [4][9] - Short-term impacts on the industry are expected to be limited due to the time required for MP Materials' expansion, with the new magnet manufacturing facility projected to be operational by 2028 [5] - The report indicates that the price floor set by the U.S. government for praseodymium and neodymium products is significantly higher than current domestic prices, suggesting a potential upward shift in domestic pricing [5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices have declined due to tariff disturbances and seasonal demand weakness, with domestic consumption showing a slight increase as prices fall [6][14] - Aluminum prices have also decreased, influenced by external market conditions and reduced demand from the aluminum rod and plate sectors [20][22] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases attributed to renewed safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and economic data [7][26] Minor Metals - The report notes stability in antimony prices, with a prevailing bullish sentiment despite limited market transactions [8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a fundamental recovery, with prices for light rare earths increasing due to the positive sentiment from MP Materials' investment [9][42] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will stabilize in the near term, with a projected trading range of 77,500 to 79,000 CNY/ton [15] - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 20,300 to 21,000 CNY/ton [21] - Gold and silver prices are predicted to continue their wide-ranging adjustments, with gold expected to trade between 750 to 800 CNY/gram [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, it includes ratings such as "盘整" (Consolidation), "回调" (Correction), "震荡" (Sideways), "偏空" (Bearish), and "反弹" (Rebound) [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is a balance between the increasing production pressure and the support from Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP during the peak season, leading to a price consolidation. In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and the price is likely to be bearish on rebounds [3][4][5]. - **LPG**: As the downward pressure on oil prices increases, LPG is under pressure. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand relationship of upstream crude oil, the central price is expected to continue to decline, and the current valuation of LPG is relatively high. In the short - term, the upward resistance is large, and the price is weak [6][7][8]. - **L (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, showing an interval - based consolidation. In the short - term, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, with the planned new capacity coming into operation, the outlook is weak [9][10]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The cost support improves, and the price moves in an interval. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the overall supply - demand imbalance persists. In the long - term, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply [11][12]. - **PVC**: With the continuous decline in the price of calcium carbide, the cost support weakens. The supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [14][15]. - **PX**: The supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness, and the cost support weakens. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [16][17]. - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to loosen. There are opportunities to short at high prices [18][19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although the current inventory is low, the supply - demand is expected to become looser. There are opportunities to short at high prices [21][22][23]. - **Glass**: There is a conflict between policy expectations and real - world constraints. In the short - term, the price may move slightly upward, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure from the moving average [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: The continuous inventory accumulation in soda ash plants puts pressure on the market sentiment. The price is expected to move in a wide - range sideways pattern [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expansion of liquid chlorine subsidies drives the price to rebound. Although the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: The upstream profit is still good, but there is a negative feedback on demand. The port may start a cycle of inventory accumulation later. The price is expected to be weak and sideways [32][33][34]. - **Urea**: Although the recent maintenance intensity has increased, the supply pressure remains large. The demand is weak, but the export growth is fast. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - **Asphalt**: Due to the pressure on the cost - end oil price, the short - term price is bearish [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices opened low and closed high. WTI decreased by 0.76%, Brent increased by 1.87%, and SC decreased by 1.01% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production in August. However, the oil price has strong support below due to the peak consumption season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP. The demand growth rate has slightly decreased, and the US inventory has changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC should be monitored in the range of [500 - 520] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 7, the PG main contract closed at 4179 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, putting downward pressure on oil prices and LPG. The PDH device profit decreases, and the supply and demand sides have different changes [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of LPG is expected to decline. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position. PG should be monitored in the range of [4150 - 4250] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cost support from crude oil weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and new capacity is planned to be put into operation in the long - term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider selling hedging opportunities. L should be monitored in the range of [7200 - 7300] [10]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply in the long - term [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7100] [12]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide continues to decline, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants and the change of anti - dumping tax policies [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures prices of different contracts decreased. The basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and international PX devices are operating at a relatively high load. The demand from the PTA side has weakened recently, and the supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness. The inventory is still relatively high [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. PX should be monitored in the range of [6620 - 6730] [17]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens. The inventory is decreasing, but the processing fee is high, and the basis is expected to weaken [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4750] [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract decreased. The basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and international devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the recent arrival volume is low, but it is expected to increase. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to become looser [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. EG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4310] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation increased, the futures contracts showed differentiation, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are policy expectations for capacity reduction and technological improvement, the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the output increases slightly, and the inventory decreases but is still higher than last year [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1010 - 1040] [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda decreased, the futures market showed differentiation, the main contract basis narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the effective forecast decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the policy of capacity reduction boosts the market sentiment, the inventory in soda ash plants continues to accumulate, and the supply is still at a high level. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1160 - 1190] [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market rebounds, the basis strengthens, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. The demand from the alumina industry recovers, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH should be monitored in the range of [2390 - 2450] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis and spreads changed, and the trans - shipment profit increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and international device operation loads are high. The import profit increases, and the port may start to accumulate inventory later. The demand from the MTO side weakens, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2350 - 2400] [34]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent maintenance intensity increases, but the supply pressure remains large. The industrial and agricultural demands are weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost support exists [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1725 - 1755] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure due to OPEC+'s production expansion. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3550 - 3650] [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Caustic Soda - Recently, the short - driving force for caustic soda has significantly slowed down, and the futures price has rebounded due to the faster - than - expected price drop of liquid chlorine. There is an increasing possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda caused by liquid chlorine disturbances in the future. The short - term spot price has rebounded due to low prices stimulating the market's phased replenishment demand, but the sustainability may be limited [5]. - From a fundamental perspective, the overhaul capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared to June. The overhauls in July are mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled units in Shandong will gradually restart. Meanwhile, the new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction has good support, with a strong willingness to replenish at low prices. In terms of cost, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [5]. - In summary, affected by liquid chlorine, the far - month valuation has been repaired under the condition of increased costs, but the space for continuous rebound may be limited. In the later stage, focus on the transmission impact of liquid chlorine on caustic soda supply. If there are substantial production cuts or load reductions, it can be treated bullishly [5]. - Strategy: Weiqiao slightly increased the price, and the market shifted from an 8 - 10 inverse spread to a positive spread, but considering the off - season demand and warehouse receipt factors, the space will be limited. If there are substantial production cuts on the supply side in the future, it is beneficial for the peak - season contracts. A 10 - 1 positive spread or selling put options can be considered [5]. For PVC - From a fundamental perspective, the profit of the current chlor - alkali integration in the Northwest is gradually declining, but there is still a small profit. Looking at the second half of the year, the driving force for production cuts on the supply side is insufficient, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. Therefore, the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage, but the short sentiment has weakened due to the rectification of the involution [6]. - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term: The overhaul volume of PVC is lower than that in the same period of 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. On the one hand, the chlor - alkali cost has declined. On the other hand, the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining relatively high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, which also increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. In addition, there will still be a lot of production capacity put into operation in the future, especially in June - July, facing the release of new production capacity, with an expected production of 1.1 million tons. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - The pressure of high inventory persists, and the export demand can only relieve it periodically: In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duty increase and BIS certification. India's PVC import BIS policy may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Therefore, the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises' willingness to stock up is low [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,406 yuan/ton [9]. - The 09 basis of caustic soda has weakened, and the 8 - 10 month spread has strengthened [18]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of caustic soda was 1.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.8%. Among them, the cumulative export to Indonesia from January to May was 620,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.4%. It is expected that the export demand for caustic soda will continue to be good in the second half of the year, but attention should be paid to the stocking rhythm of traders and downstream customers. It is estimated that the export of caustic soda in 2025 will increase by at least 30% year - on - year, and the annual export may exceed 4 million tons [22]. - The export support for high - concentration caustic soda will be reflected in the price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda. The willingness to replenish stocks in the export direction at FOB of 380 - 390 US dollars is strong [26]. - The spot price has continued to decline, and the stocking demand of traders in South China is weak, resulting in limited expansion of the arbitrage space [31]. - The price difference between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [35]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 80.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2% [38]. - The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 384,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% and a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. This week, the storage - capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Except for the storage - capacity ratios in North China, Northeast China, and South China showing a downward trend, the storage - capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, East China, and Southwest China increased week - on - week [40]. - Pay attention to the overhaul scale from July to August. At the beginning of July, the overhaul capacity of large factories in Shandong was resumed [42]. - In 2025, there will still be a lot of production capacity for caustic soda to be put into operation, but considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity expansion may be less than expected. The capacity increase may be about 2%. Pay attention to the production capacity put into operation by Tianjin Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Bay Chemical from June to July [43][46]. - Liquid chlorine is stable, the price of caustic soda is falling, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in the past three years [47]. - Among the chlorine - consuming downstream industries, the operating rate of propylene oxide has rebounded, but the profit is still at a low level; the operating rate of epichlorohydrin has declined, and the glycerol - method profit is in a loss state; the operating rates of dichloromethane and trichloromethane have decreased month - on - month [52][58][63]. 3. Caustic Soda Demand - The operating rate of alumina has increased month - on - month, the inventory has increased, and the profit has declined. The alumina device has resumed production, and the output has increased. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production capacity put into operation can drive a new round of demand expansion. Pay attention to the production - capacity put - into - operation time of Weiqiao's 1 million tons, Wenfeng's third - line 1.6 million tons, and Guangxi Guangtou's 1 million tons [69][72][73]. - The pulp industry's production capacity continues to expand, but it is in the off - season of terminal demand. The operating rate of the finished - paper industry is lower than the same period last year [74][84]. - The operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing have declined, and the short - term demand is weak [85]. - The operating rate of the water - treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of the ternary precursor industry is stable [89][91]. - The caustic soda balance sheet shows different supply - demand differences under different demand scenarios and corresponding operating rates [96]. 4. PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis has strengthened, and the 9 - 1 month spread has fluctuated weakly [99]. 5. PVC Supply and Demand - The operating rate of PVC has decreased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. There will be more overhauls in the Northwest from July to August in 2025 [104][106]. - Currently, there is new production capacity in the PVC industry. By 2025, 2.1 million tons of production capacity will be put into operation, with more concentrated production - capacity releases in the second half of the year. Most of the ethylene - method production - capacity releases have a relatively high certainty. There will be concentrated production - capacity releases of PVC from June to July, with an expected 1.1 million tons [107]. - The profit of the integrated devices in the Northwest is acceptable. In 2025, special attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry chain's practice of compensating for chlorine with alkali will be a long - term trend, which increases the difficulty of large - scale production cuts of PVC due to losses. The decline in coal prices has led to a decrease in costs, and the chlor - alkali integrated devices in the Northwest have always had profits in the first half of the year [109][112]. - PVC production enterprises have slightly reduced their inventory, while the social inventory has increased. The operating rate of PVC downstream industries has decreased month - on - month and is weaker than the same period last year [114][118]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of PVC was 1.6985 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.07%. Among them, the export to India was 763,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 31.6%. India is still the most important destination for China's PVC exports. However, the later PVC exports may be affected by policies. The Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July, so the sustainability of PVC exports in the later stage remains to be observed [125]. - The number of PVC warehouse receipts has not increased significantly [127].