新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-06 节前需求淡季，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-05日沪镍主力合约2603开于136810元/吨，收于134430元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.11%，当日成交量 为582524（+100958）手，持仓量为93478（-5975）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈现高开低走的弱势震荡态势，日内波动加剧，核心驱动源于供应过剩与节前需求 淡季的双重压制，叠加宏观情绪偏弱，短期仍以偏弱震荡为主。春节临近，不锈钢和新能源电池产业链进入季节 性淡季，下游备货基本结束，采购活动停滞，市场需求淡静，缺乏支撑镍价上涨的动力。美元走强压制大宗商品 价格，隔夜伦镍收跌 0.37%，对沪镍形成联动影响。有色板块整体回调，市场情绪偏谨慎，进一步加剧沪镍下行 压力。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场延续分化态势。菲律宾矿山招标价格在强劲的采购需求下继续冲高， 而中国国内市场因成本严重倒挂，买方陷入全面观望，交投几近停滞，市场呈现"外热内冷"的鲜明对比。菲律宾 方面，矿山招标价格涨势未止，市场看涨情绪依然浓厚。据市场消息，北方矿山Eramen的1.4% ...

供应方面，广州期货指出，废铝原料供应偏紧价格整体保持稳定，有进口增量货源流入国内市场，临近 春节，部分企业对原料备货需求走增，成本端为铝合金价格提供较强支撑。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，由于行业淡季影响，下游压铸企业实际订单增量较少，向上采买 仅为刚需补货，消化库存为主，加之铸铝价格偏高位运行，其备货意愿亦不足。 1月30日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，铸造铝合金期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿 主力合约报23110.0元/吨，跌幅达3.04%。 消息面上，上期所公告，经研究决定，自2026年1月30日(星期五)收盘结算时起，铸造铝合金期货已上 市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整 为9%。 展望后市，五矿期货表示，铸造铝合金成本端价格明显冲高回落，虽然需求相对一般，但在供应端扰动 持续和原料供应季节性偏紧背景下，短期价格预计仍有较强支撑。 ...

Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-22 美国寒潮天然⽓连续第⼆天上涨，装置 故障苯⼄烯利润⼤幅扩张 原油价格延续震荡整理态势。哈萨克斯坦即将摆脱持续数周的出口限 制困境，因为一处位于黑海的重要石油装运设施的维修工作已接近尾声， 该国约90%的原油通过此路线运输，这将有助于缓解Brent高企的月差。IE A发布最新月报，报告上调2026年全球石油需求增速预期至93万桶/日，并 估测2026年供应将增长250万桶/日，IEA认为全球石油市场仍过剩。短期 需要关注极寒天气席卷美国对油气市场带来的影响，天然气价格连续两日 大幅拉升，取暖油需求也将环比走高，且需观察极端低温对油气生产的影 响。（以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工链条中当前较为强势的品种仍是芳烃。苯乙烯自2025年12月19日 的低点已经上涨千点有余（按盘面主力合约计价），最开始是供给减量带 来估值的修复，接下来是出口有增加，改变了1-2月的供需平衡；当前我 们看到的是苯乙烯企业又有意外停车，河北一30万吨装置在1月20日突发 故障停车，产能占比约为1.3%，重启时间未定，这引发 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry is over - valued, so it should be treated with a volatile mindset. The industry may continue to fluctuate strongly, but it is not recommended to chase more [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to risks in Iran. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium fluctuates. The price of oil will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions. Short - term focus is on the risk of price surges related to Iranian geopolitics [4][7]. - **Logic**: Expectations of increased sanctions by the US on Russia or Iran fuel supply concerns, and the situation in Iran is highly uncertain. The US - Venezuela crude oil trade may increase, and there may be a potential impact of Venezuelan sanctioned oil on the compliant oil market. Geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Supply pressure continues, but the geopolitical premium is unstable, so it should be viewed as volatile in the short term [4][7][8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. The US is cooperating with Venezuela to receive its oil, and partial sanctions on Venezuela are lifted. This supports asphalt costs but may lead to sufficient supply in the long - term. Hainan's asphalt production has increased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak with inventory accumulation and reduced demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and its medium - to long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil futures has declined due to the pressure from Venezuelan heavy oil [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ suspends production increases in Q1. Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, increasing heavy - oil supply. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and its substitution by natural gas and photovoltaic energy [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [11]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures is oscillating upward [4]. - **Logic**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. There are some supporting factors, but it also faces challenges such as reduced shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. Its valuation is low and it is expected to follow crude oil price movements [12]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3.5 Methanol - **View**: Methanol is expected to be stable with a weakening trend, as inventory pressure is significant and MTO demand is weak [4]. - **Logic**: The domestic supply is relatively abundant, while downstream demand is weak. Port inventory is high, and there are plans for some MTO plants to shut down, which may further weaken demand [28]. - **Outlook**: Weakening in the short term [28]. 3.6 Urea - **View**: The actual trading volume has slowed down, and urea is oscillating and consolidating [4]. - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level of around 200,000 tons per day, while the procurement from traders and compound fertilizer factories has slowed down, resulting in a lack of trading enthusiasm [29]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Without a significant change in fundamentals, the market is closely related to order transactions. It may be stable with a weakening trend in the short term [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and inventory tank capacity is tight [4]. - **Logic**: The recent arrival of a large number of vessels has led to a significant increase in inventory, causing the spot basis to weaken and reducing traders' willingness to hold goods [20][22]. - **Outlook**: The price will be range - bound in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [22]. 3.8 PX - **View**: The loosening of polyester demand exerts pressure on upstream raw materials [4]. - **Logic**: International oil prices are rising, and naphtha prices are increasing due to cost factors. Although PTA demand provides some support, the supply from domestic and foreign PX plants is increasing. The short - term PX profit is adjusting downward from a high level [13]. - **Outlook**: The PX price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton. The profit decline is limited [13]. 3.9 PTA - **View**: There are concentrated reports of polyester production cuts, putting pressure on the basis and processing fees [4]. - **Logic**: The upstream cost still provides some support, and the PTA supply - demand situation is currently stable. However, the concentrated production cuts in the downstream polyester industry may lead to a weaker basis and limited processing fee space [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate with costs. In the medium term, consider going long on the TA05 contract on dips, and short - term shorting in the 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton range. Look for positive spreads on TA05 - 09 on dips [15]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price fluctuation has narrowed, and the sales are stable [4]. - **Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has slightly declined, and the short - fiber price is range - bound. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the market demand is stable [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the movement of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee is under some pressure [24]. 3.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: More plants are under maintenance in January, and profit support is strengthening [4]. - **Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has slightly declined, and the bottle - chip market price has followed the cost movement. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the profit is expected to recover. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly before the festival, and the processing fee has stronger support [25]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom [25]. 3.12 Styrene - **View**: Driven by exports and a positive market atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently [4]. - **Logic**: Exports are good, with confirmed exports of 48,000 tons in January and 12,000 tons in February. Port inventory has decreased, and market sentiment is positive. Macro and crude oil factors are also positive. The supply - demand situation is favorable in January, but there may be a risk of price correction if there is an unexpected increase in supply [18]. - **Outlook**: If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, driven by repeated export news [18]. 3.13 PVC - **View**: There is a short - term "rush to export", which supports PVC [4]. - **Logic**: The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term "rush to export". However, the long - term inventory pressure is large. Domestically, supply elasticity has increased, while overseas, the US Olin VCM plant has restarted. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the sustainability of "rush to export" orders is uncertain [37]. - **Outlook**: The short - term "rush to export" supports the price, but the long - term price may face pressure due to the possible poor sustainability of exports and high inventory [38]. 3.14 Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is operating weakly [4]. - **Logic**: The production remains high, and inventory pressure is large. Demand from the alumina industry is weak, and non - aluminum downstream demand is also poor. Although the price of liquid chlorine limits the decline of caustic soda, the overall supply - demand situation is under pressure [39]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains under pressure, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the decline limited by liquid chlorine [39]. 3.15 LLDPE - **View**: Driven by a positive macro sentiment, LLDPE is oscillating upward [33]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors continue to affect supply expectations. The futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro expectations and positive market sentiment, but the profit of various production methods has slightly recovered, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [33]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [33]. 3.16 PP - **View**: Boosted by the macro environment but with reduced downstream trading volume, PP is oscillating upward [34]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors affect supply expectations. The macro environment is positive for PP, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased after the price rebound. The short - term maintenance rate has slightly decreased [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [34]. 3.17 PL - **View**: Some downstream plants have restarted, and PL is oscillating upward [35]. - **Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations provide support. Propylene enterprise inventory is controllable, and downstream demand has increased slightly. However, the demand is still limited in the off - season [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [35]. 3.18 Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026, with increases of 1.57%, 1.85%, 1.27%, and 1.31% respectively [287]. - **Energy Index**: On January 12, 2026, the energy index was 1102.68, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 1.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48% [288].

1月13日盘中，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至1210.3点。截止发稿， 集运指数（欧线）主力合约报1220.4点，跌幅3.81%。 指数方面，1月9日，SCFI欧线指数为1719美元/TEU，较上期上涨1.7%。线上运价方面，HPL1月至2月 上半月大柜运价2735美金，下调300美金；CMA2月初大柜运价3893美金，下调200美金。地缘方面，1 月12日，哈马斯已向埃及方面提交一份包含40名候选人的名单，由埃及从中挑选成员组成未来的加沙管 理委员会。综合而言，光伏等产品取消出口退税政策带来抢运预期，短期情绪面利多，但相关产品占欧 线货量仅约5%，加上04合约处在传统需求淡季，建议谨慎看待上方空间，关注今日马士基开舱价指 引。期价随资金博弈波动，谨慎操作。 国泰君安期货：集运指数（欧线）04轻仓试空 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指引；04轻仓试空。出口退税政策催生"抢出口"预期带动盘面反弹。运力 端，观察2026年春节前（week-1至week-5)、春节中(week0至week2）以及春节后（week3至week5）的运 力分布情况：2026年大年初一是2月17日，位于第8周（即 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the domestic futures market for styrene has shown mixed performance, with styrene futures experiencing fluctuations and a notable increase in price [1] - As of January 8, the overall production of styrene in China reached 355,700 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3,500 tons, or 0.99% [2] - The capacity utilization rate for styrene factories was reported at 70.92%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.69% [2] Group 2 - The latest inventory of styrene stands at 162,000 tons, with East China port inventory at 132,300 tons, indicating expectations for continued inventory reduction [2] - Nanhua Futures noted that there were no new maintenance schedules for styrene facilities this week, and the market sentiment remains strong due to frequent export news and downstream factory purchases [2] - Newhu Futures suggested that while short-term styrene prices may remain strong due to market sentiment and inventory reduction, there are limitations on the upper price levels due to potential increases in production and uncertainties regarding raw material price sustainability [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The overall situation of pure benzene shows strong supply and weak demand, and it should still be treated weakly; benzene styrene is in the seasonal off - season demand in the first quarter, with obvious demand pressure, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%; from December 22 to 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the pick - up was about 12,500 tons; 3 out of the statistical storage areas increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of benzene styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period; the commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period; according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The short - term large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates of some banks have entered the "0 -字头", similar to ordinary fixed deposits [2] - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year; China's December CPI annual rate was 0.8%, with an expected 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with strong upward pressure and a supply - strong and demand - weak state, and is still treated weakly [3] - Benzene styrene fluctuated slightly, with attention paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line level; in the first - quarter off - season, it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of overall commodities, but the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in the off - season demand in the first quarter. Although it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should appropriately participate in hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 - 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Trump and his advisors are planning a large - scale plan to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry in the coming years, aiming to push the oil price down to $50 per barrel [2] - On January 8, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.1 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand [3] - Styrene fluctuated slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. Affected by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, it may be boosted to some extent, but the demand pressure is still obvious [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 to December 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at ports in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the issue of Venezuela. Trump stated that the US needs to fully acquire Venezuela's oil and other resources and threatened a second strike if Venezuela does not comply [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene showed a slight intraday fluctuation, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand, and should be treated weakly [3] - Styrene also showed a slight fluctuation. Pay attention to the pressure around the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. It is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3]