【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 【宏观面分析】 据华尔街日报，知情人士透露，特朗普及其顾问正在筹划一项规模庞大的计 划，拟在未来多年内主导委内瑞拉石油产业。特朗普已向助手表示，他认为这一 行动有助于将油价压低至其偏好的每桶 50 美元水平。 央行：2026 年 1 月 8 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价 位中标方式开展 11000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 个月（90 天）。 【期现行情分析】 纯苯日内小幅震荡，上方压力依旧较大，整体仍然呈现供强需弱的状态，目 前仍然弱势对待。 苯乙烯小幅震荡，上方关注周线级别 40 日均线附近压力，一季度处于季淡 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 6 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 纯苯日内小幅震荡，上方压力依旧较大，整体仍然呈现供强需弱的状态，目 前仍然弱势对待。 苯乙烯小幅震荡，上方关注周线级别 40 日均线附近压力，明年一季度处于 季淡季需求，产业适当参与套保。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 【宏观面分析】 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产，会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题。 苯乙烯小幅收跌，上方关注周线级别 40 日均线附近压力，明年一季度处于 季淡季需求，产业适当参与套保。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请 ...

本文源自：卓创资讯 随着元旦假期结束，玉米蛋白粉进入了需求阶段性淡季，价格出现小幅回调。在元旦前夕，国内市场经 历了短暂的集中采购期，节后下游市场需求减弱，采购热情下降。与此同时，自12月中旬起，玉米蛋白 粉的集中出口期也逐渐告一段落，而国内玉米深加工行业的开工率依然保持在全年较高水平，这进一步 加大了市场的供应压力。截至1月5日，山东地区60%玉米蛋白粉市场成交价为3840-4080元/吨，较前一 交易日区间持平，其中部分工厂成交价格较元旦前下跌60元/吨，跌幅1.47%。因玉米价格仍维持在相对 高位，对副产品有一定成本支撑，豆粕价格变动幅度有限，预计玉米副产品价格短期小幅偏弱，回落空 间有限。（卓创资讯） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautious bearish outlook on crude oil, natural gas [2][7] - Short - term bearish rebound expected in LPG, L, PP, PVC, asphalt, glass, soda ash [2][7] - Suggests callback buying opportunities for PTA, methanol, urea [31][37][41] - Recommends rebound short - selling for MEG [34] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices will oscillate in a range due to geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus [2] - LPG prices will strengthen in the short - term due to cost - side support but trend downwards in the long - term [2] - PTA offers callback buying opportunities as its short - term supply - demand balance is tight [31] - MEG is expected to accumulate inventory, and investors should look for rebound short - selling opportunities [34] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.22%, Brent down 0.26%, and SC up 0.69% [10] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors in South America may boost prices in the short - term, but supply surplus in the off - season exerts downward pressure [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is affected by US interception of Venezuelan oil tankers, and demand in Japan increased in November. US inventories rose in the week ending December 19 [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the SC range of [430 - 440] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the PG main contract closed at 4092 yuan/ton, up 0.52% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Saudi's CP contract price increase boosts prices in the short - term, and supply and demand show certain resilience [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4000 - 4100] [18] L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 6461 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: It follows market sentiment in the short - term, with weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the L range of [6350 - 6500] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 6321 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [24] - **Basic Logic**: Cost strengthens in January, and the industry chain faces high inventory - reduction pressure [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions before the holiday and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the PP range of [6250 - 6400] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 4810 yuan/ton, up 0.7% [28] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support strengthens, but high inventory restricts the rebound space [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take partial profit on long positions, wait for inventory reduction for long - term long positions, and conduct hedging for industrial customers. Focus on the V range of [4700 - 4900] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5280 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is tight in the short - term, but there is a risk of negative feedback from the demand side [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for TA05 in the range of [5080 - 5190] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: EG05 closed at 3686 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic production capacity increases, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is expected to accumulate [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and look for rebound short - selling opportunities for EG05 in the range of [3780 - 3880] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure exists, demand is slightly weak, and cost support is weak [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for MA05 in the range of [2210 - 2250] [40] Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, but the arbitrage window between domestic and overseas markets remains open [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for callback buying opportunities for UR05 in the range of [1725 - 1755] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On December 29, the NG main contract closed at 4.687 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 7.35% [46] - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, and supply is relatively abundant [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the NG range of [3.727 - 4.160] [47] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 30, the BU main contract closed at 3038 yuan/ton, up 1.00% [49] - **Basic Logic**: It is mainly affected by crude oil prices, and supply and demand are relatively loose [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions. Focus on the BU range of [3000 - 3100] [51] Glass - **Market Performance**: FG05 closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 3.4% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations support prices, and supply and demand are weak [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long in the short - term and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Focus on the FG range of [1070 - 1120] [55] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA05 closed at 1213 yuan/ton, up 2.7% [57] - **Basic Logic**: It rebounds following glass prices, with stable supply and weak demand [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebound short - selling opportunities. Focus on the SA range of [1200 - 1240] [59]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-31 节前资金谨慎，基本金属宽幅震荡 有⾊观点：节前资⾦谨慎，基本⾦属宽幅震荡 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月汽车销售 延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本金 属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，节前资金谨慎，基 本金属冲高回落，但弱美元预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，可待铜铝锡止 跌后继续关注低吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并 且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应收缩预期较强，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：成本⽀撑有效性较弱，氧化铝价仍旧承压。 铝观点：资⾦情绪反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑延续，盘⾯⾼位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 地缘不确定性与供给过剩拉扯，油价震荡偏弱。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和， 南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓 | | ★ | | 以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐 | | | | 渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 开工率升至 75%， | | ★ | | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利多，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | | | 需求转淡，华北现货加速下跌带动基差大幅走弱。基本面供需双弱，停车 | | | | 比例小幅提升至 15%，LL 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装 | | L | 空头延续 | ...

原油 2025/12/18 原油 能源化工组 能源化工日报 2025-12-18 利多兑现后盘面再度陷入短期盘整，港口倒流叠加转口船发货带来港口库存进一步去化。后续 来看，进口到港仍将处于高位，而港口烯烃装置存检修预期，后续港口压力仍在，目前港口绝 对库存水平依旧较高。供应端企业利润回落到中性位置，开工维持同期高位，整体供应高位。 随着利多的兑现，盘面仍将回归现实逻辑，甲醇基本面仍有一定压力，预计低位整理为主，策 略方面单边建议观望。 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 柴油库存去库 0.39 百万桶至 3.19 百万桶，环比去库 10.91%；燃料油库存累库 1.55 百万桶至 13.79 百万桶，环比累库 12.62%；总成品油累库 0.89 百万桶至 23.93 百万桶，环比累库 3.88%。 燃料油收涨 20.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.84%，报 2415.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 36.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.22%，报 2905.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0. ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 原油 | | 过剩格局未变，油价反弹偏空。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押 一艘委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍 | | | 谨慎看空 | 在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均 | | ★ | | 累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄 | | | | 乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | | | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上升。 | | ★ | | | | | | 装置维持高开工，短线超跌反弹。国内开工季节性回升，LL 加权毛利压缩 | | L | | 至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度相对较 | | | 空头盘整 | 高，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步 ...