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商品期权周报:2025年第22周-20250602
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-02 14:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.47 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.48 million lots, showing a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options decreased, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties include rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties include polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. - This week, the implied volatility of some commodities rebounded, with 34 varieties showing a month - on - month increase in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber carry unilateral risks, and investors are advised to focus on short - volatility opportunities; low - volatility varieties like vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore have lower option purchase prices, and industrial customers can consider deploying insurance strategies [2][15]. - Currently, the volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 5.47 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.48 million lots, with a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties this week included PTA (530,000 lots), glass (460,000 lots), and soda ash (430,000 lots). Six varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant increases in paraxylene (+3439%), industrial silicon (+198%), and bottle chips (+150%); significant decreases were seen in polystyrene (-84%) and ethylene glycol (-61%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest this week were soybean meal (880,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and glass (570,000 lots). Rapid growth in open interest was observed in paraxylene (+117%), industrial silicon (+89%), and manganese silicon (+45%) [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options decreased this week, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties were rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties were polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodities rebounded this week, with 34 varieties having a month - on - month increase in implied volatility and 27 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore [2][15]. 3.2.3 Option Market Sentiment - The volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting high - level accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Orient Futures Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19].