期权市场情绪

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商品期权周报:2025年第37周-20250914
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-14 14:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, with daily average trading volume and open interest showing a decline. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][7]. - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with the chemical sector mostly declining and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 33 varieties with weekly losses. Attention should be paid to the trading opportunities and risks in different sectors [2][16]. - Most commodity options' implied volatility declined this week. For varieties with high implied volatility, investors should be wary of unilateral risks and consider short - selling volatility; for those with low implied volatility, buying options has a higher cost - performance ratio [2][16]. - The PCR indicators of different varieties reflect different market sentiments. For varieties with high PCR, there is a strong bearish sentiment, while for those with low PCR, there is a concentrated bullish sentiment [2][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (from September 8th to September 12th, 2025), the daily average trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.53 million lots, and the daily average open interest was 9.21 million lots, with a week - on - week change of - 5.20% and - 1.17% respectively [1][7]. - Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume this week included glass (940,000 lots), soda ash (540,000 lots), and silver (430,000 lots). Varieties with significant trading volume growth were lead (+143%), apple (+140%), and crude oil (+111%); those with significant trading volume decline were lithium carbonate (-71%), polysilicon (-70%), and industrial silicon (-59%) [1][7]. - Varieties with high daily average open interest this week were soybean meal (880,000 lots), glass (790,000 lots), and soda ash (770,000 lots). Varieties with rapid week - on - week growth in daily average open interest were apple (+46%), lead (+36%), and alumina (+36%) [1][7]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - This week, the underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance, with the chemical sector mostly declining and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 33 varieties with weekly losses. Varieties with high weekly gains included gold (+2.35%), silver (+2.31%), and aluminum (+2.05%); those with high weekly losses included polysilicon (-5.51%), synthetic rubber (-5.20%), and lithium carbonate (-4.17%) [2][16]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - Most commodity options' implied volatility declined this week, and 35 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50th percentile of the past year's history. Varieties with implied volatility at a high level in the past year included polysilicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and eggs; those at a low level included lead, zinc, p - xylene, urea, and oilseeds [2][16]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as bottle chips and plastics was at a historical high, indicating a strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of non - ferrous metals, live pigs, and glass was at a historical low, indicating a concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of polysilicon and lead was at a historical high, while that of rebar, non - ferrous metals, live pigs, and styrene was at a historical low [2][16]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [20].
商品期权周报:2025年第36周-20250907
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-07 14:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading volume of the commodity options market remained at a low level this week, but there were significant increases in the trading volume and open interest of some varieties. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends this week, with the chemical sector mostly declining. Most commodity options' implied volatility increased, and different varieties showed different market sentiments [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - This week (2025.9.1 - 2025.9.5), the average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.89 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.32 million lots, with环比 increases of 15.91% and 13.41% respectively [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties included polysilicon (600,000 lots), lithium carbonate (580,000 lots), and glass (560,000 lots). The trading volume of gold, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate increased by over 100%, while that of apple and p - xylene decreased significantly [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (910,000 lots), soda ash (880,000 lots), and soybean meal (780,000 lots). The open interest of tin, lead, and copper increased rapidly [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed trends, with 28 varieties closing higher for the week. Polysilicon (+14.49%), industrial silicon (+5.13%), and silver (+4.51%) had high weekly increases, while jujube (-4.43%), lithium carbonate (-3.78%), and ethylene glycol (-2.49%) had high weekly decreases [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity options' implied volatility increased this week. 30 varieties' current implied volatility was below the 50% quantile of the past - year history. Polysilicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and eggs had high implied volatility, while some varieties in the oilseeds and non - ferrous metals sectors had low implied volatility [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of some varieties such as bottle chips, LPG, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of rubber, tin, nickel, etc. was at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of polysilicon, lead, and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, while that of ethylene glycol, urea, etc. was at a historical low [2][15]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview This chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil are presented [20]. - **Chemical**: Key data of PTA, caustic soda, glass, and soda ash are shown, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR [27][36][43][49]. - **Precious Metals**: Data on silver's trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are provided [55]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Key data of iron ore and manganese silicon, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR, are presented [63][71]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Data on copper and alumina, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR, are shown [78][92]. - **Agricultural Products**: Key data of soybean meal, palm oil, and cotton, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR, are presented [93][100][108].
图说金融:轮动风向标显示当前大小盘强弱关系不明朗
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 07:03
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rotation wind vane consists of option market sentiment and traditional capital - related parts, and their resonance forms large/small - cap strength signals. Daily long - short operations on large and small caps can be carried out according to the signals, or use IM as the underlying position and adjust style exposure when the signal indicates that small caps are weak to achieve index enhancement. The September 2025 latest rotation wind vane signal shows option sentiment 1 and capital aspect - 1, suggesting to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Performance of Sub - strategies from 2025/4/1 - 2025/9/4 - For the 300/1000 long - short strategy, the interval return is 8.56%, the annualized return is 20.72%, the Calmar ratio is 5.39%, and the maximum drawdown is 3.84 [2]. - For the 1000 index enhancement strategy, the interval return is 13.21%, the annualized return is 32.93%, the Calmar ratio is 6.58%, and the maximum drawdown is 5.00 [2]. - For the CSI 1000, the interval return is 13.08%, the annualized return is 32.57%, the Calmar ratio is 12.44%, and the maximum drawdown is 2.62 [2].
商品期权周报:2025年第34周-20250824
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-24 14:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the activity, price changes, market volatility, and sentiment of the commodity options market in the 34th week of 2025 (August 18 - August 22). It suggests investors focus on trading opportunities in actively traded varieties and provides insights on potential risks and opportunities based on price movements and volatility [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Commodity Options Market Activity - Market activity declined compared to last week, with average daily trading volume at 6.46 million lots and average daily open interest at 7.32 million lots, down 26.6% and 28.23% respectively [1][6]. - Actively traded varieties included soda ash (590,000 lots), glass (510,000 lots), and palm oil (400,000 lots) [1][6]. - Three varieties saw trading volume growth of over 100%, with p-xylene (+1327%), synthetic rubber (+125%), and staple fiber (+122%) showing significant increases [1][6]. - Varieties with significant trading volume declines were rapeseed meal (-85%), rapeseed oil (-85%), and soybean oil (-72%) [1][6]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest were rebar (630,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and soybean meal (600,000 lots) [1][6]. - Varieties with rapid open interest growth were p-xylene (+188%), synthetic rubber (+77%), and polysilicon (+50%) [1][6]. 2. This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Changes**: Most commodity option underlying futures declined, with 37 varieties closing lower for the week. High weekly gainers included caustic soda (+4.26%), p-xylene (+4.16%), and staple fiber (+3.34%); high weekly losers were lithium carbonate (-9.14%), soda ash (-4.95%), and ferrosilicon (-9.14%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: The implied volatility of some commodity options declined weekly, with 39 varieties having current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year. Varieties at historical highs included polysilicon, eggs, and industrial silicon; those at historical lows included the agricultural products sector and non-ferrous metals [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as lithium carbonate and soybean meal had high volume PCRs, indicating strong short-term bearish sentiment. Varieties like ethylene glycol, styrene, aluminum, and PTA had low volume PCRs, showing concentrated short-term bullish sentiment. Lithium carbonate, polysilicon, caustic soda, and soda ash had high open interest PCRs, suggesting high bearish sentiment; while styrene, ethylene glycol, nickel, and plastic had low open interest PCRs, indicating bullish sentiment accumulation [2][15]. 3. Key Data Overview of Major Varieties This chapter presents key data on major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Data on crude oil, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR, are presented through various charts [20][22][23]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Data on trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR are presented through charts [26][27][29]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar data are presented for caustic soda [35][36][38]. - **Glass**: Data on glass are presented in a similar manner [42][43][44]. - **Soda Ash**: Data on soda ash are presented through charts [48][49][52]. - **Precious Metals**: Data on silver, including trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and volume PCR, are presented through charts [54][55][56]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Data on iron ore are presented through charts [62][63][66]. - **Silicomanganese**: Similar data are presented for silicomanganese [70][71][72]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Data on copper are presented through charts [77][78][84]. - **Alumina**: Data on alumina are presented in a similar manner [93][88][90]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Data on soybean meal are presented through charts [94][96][98]. - **Palm Oil**: Similar data are presented for palm oil [102][110][103]. - **Cotton**: Data on cotton are presented through charts [111][112][113].
商品期权周报:2025年第33周-20250817
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 14:16
Report Title - "Commodity Options Weekly Report: Week 33 of 2025" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level of the commodity options market in the week from August 11 - 15, 2025, was basically flat compared to the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively - traded varieties [2][9] - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical and non - ferrous sectors mainly rising. Attention should be paid to risks and opportunities based on factors such as price fluctuations, implied volatility, and market sentiment [3][17][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume was 8.81 million lots, with a week - on - week increase of 4.19%, and the average daily open interest was 10.2 million lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.19% [2][5][9] - Actively - traded varieties in terms of average daily trading volume included glass (1.07 million lots), soda ash (1.06 million lots), and soybean meal (0.6 million lots) [2][5][9] - Five varieties had trading volume growth of over 100%, with significant growth in synthetic rubber (+362%), Shanghai tin (+265%), and apples (+108%). Meanwhile, polycrystalline silicon (-77%), industrial silicon (-66%), and urea (-53%) had obvious trading volume declines [2][9] - Varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (1.07 million lots), glass (0.96 million lots), and soda ash (0.87 million lots). Synthetic rubber (+58%), Shanghai tin (+37%), and p - xylene (+37%) had rapid week - on - week growth in average daily open interest [2][9] 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review 3.2.1 Underlying Price Fluctuations - There were 28 varieties with weekly gains, including lithium carbonate (+12.92%), palm oil (+5.11%), and soda ash (+4.73%); 23 varieties had weekly losses, including methanol (-2.55%), eggs (-2.30%), and logs (-1.87%) [3][17] 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options varieties rebounded this week, with 23 varieties having current implied volatility above the 50th percentile of the past year. High - implied - volatility varieties included corn starch, eggs, logs, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended. Low - implied - volatility varieties included non - ferrous metals, precious metals, plastics, etc., where buying options had a higher cost - performance ratio [3][17] 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - Varieties such as p - xylene, bottle chips, and soybean meal had a high volume PCR, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Glass, rubber, soda ash, and rapeseed oil had a low volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment [3][18] - P - xylene, lithium carbonate, and soda ash had a high open - interest PCR, indicating a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment. Nickel, logs, sugar, and rubber had a low open - interest PCR, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [3][18] 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be accessed on the Dongzheng Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [22]
商品期权周报:2025年第32周-20250810
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 14:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The activity level in the commodity options market declined this week, with average daily trading volume at 8.45 million lots and average daily open interest at 12.46 million lots, showing a -18.47% and +8.45% change respectively compared to the previous period. Traders are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance this week, with the energy - chemical sector mostly falling and the non - ferrous sector mostly rising. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains and 20 with weekly losses. Some varieties' implied volatility continued to correct, and different trading strategies are recommended based on the implied volatility levels of different varieties. Also, the PCR values of different varieties indicate different market sentiment [2][18][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 8.45 million lots, a -18.47% change from the previous period, and the average daily open interest was 12.46 million lots, a +8.45% change. The actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume included glass (1.17 million lots), soda ash (1.08 million lots), and polysilicon (0.66 million lots). There were 3 varieties with a trading volume increase of over 50%, namely eggs (+67%), rapeseed meal (+55%), and LPG (+51%), while the trading volume of p - xylene (-99%) and red dates (-87%) decreased significantly. The varieties with high average daily open interest were glass (1.69 million lots), soda ash (1.43 million lots), and soybean meal (1.07 million lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in daily average open interest were eggs (+38%), synthetic rubber (+38%), and Shanghai tin (+37%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - The underlying futures of commodity options showed mixed performance. The energy - chemical sector mostly fell, and the non - ferrous sector mostly rose. There were 31 varieties with weekly gains, with lithium carbonate (+11.15%), red dates (+5.68%), and apples (+4.11%) having relatively high weekly gains. There were 20 varieties with weekly losses, with crude oil (-7.22%), LPG (-4.82%), and caustic soda (-3.66%) having relatively high weekly losses [2][18]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodity options continued to correct this week. 33 varieties had their current implied volatility below the 50th percentile of the past year's historical data. Varieties with implied volatility at historical highs in the past year included ferrosilicon, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and rapeseed meal, and traders are advised to be cautious of one - sided risks and consider short - volatility opportunities. Varieties with implied volatility at historical lows in the past year included methanol, ethylene glycol, urea, and non - ferrous metals, where buying options had a relatively high cost - performance ratio [2][18]. 3.2.3 Options Market Sentiment - The trading volume PCR of varieties such as p - xylene was at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market, and attention should be paid to the risk of underlying price corrections. The trading volume PCR of gold, oils and fats, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and rubber was at a historical low, indicating concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of p - xylene and lithium carbonate was at a historical high, suggesting that bearish sentiment in the market had accumulated to a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of nickel, gold, zinc, methanol, urea, and LPG was at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment in the market [2][19]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter mainly presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data of other varieties can be accessed on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23].
分析师:期权市场情绪积极转变提振欧元
news flash· 2025-06-27 10:18
Core Insights - The positive shift in sentiment in the options market is contributing to the rise of the euro [1] - A preference for call options over put options is indicated by the one-month and three-month euro risk reversals [1] - The narrowing interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone is expected to provide solid support for the euro [1]
商品期权周报:2025年第24周-20250615
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 15:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 9 - June 13, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market was relatively stable, with the average daily trading volume at 6.04 million lots and the average daily open interest at 8.67 million lots, showing a month - on - month change of -3% and -10% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [2][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose, with 33 varieties closing up for the week. For market volatility, most commodity implied volatilities increased slightly. High - volatility varieties suggest attention to short - volatility opportunities, while low - volatility varieties indicate that industrial customers can consider insurance strategies. Regarding market sentiment, different varieties show varying degrees of bullish or bearish sentiment [3][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.04 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.67 million lots, with month - on - month changes of -3% and -10% respectively. Actively traded varieties included PTA, styrene, and soda ash. Three varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with styrene, LPG, and palm oil showing significant growth, while polysilicon and industrial silicon saw a sharp decline. High - open - interest varieties were soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth were styrene, silver, and LPG [2][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Futures Price Changes**: 33 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed up this week. High - gain varieties were crude oil (+13.69%), styrene (+7.94%), and LPG (+5.95%); high - loss varieties were soda ash (-4.62%), urea (-3.43%), and caustic soda (-3.08%) [3][13]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities increased slightly. 28 varieties had a month - on - month decline in implied volatility, and 33 varieties' current implied volatility was below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included LPG, methanol, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, glass, etc., and industrial customers were advised to consider insurance strategies [3][13]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as industrial silicon, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber had a high trading volume PCR at a historical level, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Gold, silver, and methanol had a low trading volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Rapeseed meal, crude oil, cotton, and rebar had a high open - interest PCR at a historical level, accumulating bearish sentiment, while caustic soda, gold, and soda ash had a low open - interest PCR, accumulating bullish sentiment [3][13]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview The chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [17]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators, were presented [18]. - **Chemicals** - **PTA**: Data on trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment were provided [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar key data for caustic soda were presented [34]. - **Glass**: Key data of glass were shown [40]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data of soda ash were provided [48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metals such as silver, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators, were presented [55]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Key data of iron ore were provided [61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Key data of silicomanganese were presented [69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Key data of copper were provided [77]. - **Alumina**: Key data of alumina were presented [87]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean Meal**: Key data of soybean meal were provided [97]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data of palm oil were presented [104]. - **Cotton**: Key data of cotton were provided [113].
商品期权周报:2025年第23周-20250608
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 14:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week, with daily average trading volume reaching 6.11 million lots and daily average open interest reaching 9.69 million lots, up 12% and 14% respectively from the previous week. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - Most of the underlying futures of commodity options rose this week, with 34 varieties closing higher. High - gain varieties include silver, tin, and crude oil, while high - loss varieties include caustic soda, urea, and industrial silicon [2][15]. - Most commodity implied volatilities declined this week, with 42 varieties seeing a decline in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, while low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore. Different trading strategies are recommended for different volatility levels [2][15]. - The trading volume PCR of some varieties is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment, while the trading volume PCR of others is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Similar situations exist for the open interest PCR, reflecting the accumulation of bullish or bearish sentiment in the market [2][15]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The trading volume and open interest of the commodity options market increased this week. Actively traded varieties in terms of daily average trading volume include PTA, industrial silicon, and glass. Varieties with significant trading volume growth are rapeseed oil and polysilicon, while those with significant declines are p - xylene and gold. High - open - interest varieties include soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth are tin, synthetic rubber, and nickel [1][8]. 3.2 Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Price Movements**: 34 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed higher this week. High - gain varieties are silver (+7.69%), tin (+5.31%), and crude oil (+4.06%), while high - loss varieties are caustic soda (-4.93%), urea (-2.99%), and industrial silicon (-2.42%) [2][15]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities declined, with 42 varieties having a decline in implied volatility and 33 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties include logs and plastics, and low - volatility varieties include vegetable oils, sugar, corn, and iron ore [2][15]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: The trading volume PCR of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. The trading volume PCR of silver, copper, and styrene is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating high - level bearish sentiment, while that of styrene, caustic soda, rubber, gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties - This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [20]. - **Chemicals**: Key data of chemical varieties such as PTA, caustic soda, glass, and soda ash are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [25][34][42][48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metal varieties such as silver are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [55]. - **Ferrous Metals**: Key data of ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore and manganese silicon are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [61][69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Key data of non - ferrous metal varieties such as copper and alumina are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [77][85]. - **Agricultural Products**: Key data of agricultural product varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and cotton are presented, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators [94][102][116].
商品期权周报:2025年第22周-20250602
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-02 14:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (May 26 - May 30, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market declined, with an average daily trading volume of 5.47 million lots and an average daily open interest of 8.48 million lots, showing a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [1][8]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options decreased, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties include rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties include polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. - This week, the implied volatility of some commodities rebounded, with 34 varieties showing a month - on - month increase in implied volatility. High - volatility varieties such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber carry unilateral risks, and investors are advised to focus on short - volatility opportunities; low - volatility varieties like vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore have lower option purchase prices, and industrial customers can consider deploying insurance strategies [2][15]. - Currently, the volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment in the market; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting a high level of accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market this week was 5.47 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.48 million lots, with a -7% and +2.32% change respectively compared to the previous period [1][8]. - Actively traded varieties this week included PTA (530,000 lots), glass (460,000 lots), and soda ash (430,000 lots). Six varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with significant increases in paraxylene (+3439%), industrial silicon (+198%), and bottle chips (+150%); significant decreases were seen in polystyrene (-84%) and ethylene glycol (-61%) [1][8]. - Varieties with high average daily open interest this week were soybean meal (880,000 lots), soda ash (620,000 lots), and glass (570,000 lots). Rapid growth in open interest was observed in paraxylene (+117%), industrial silicon (+89%), and manganese silicon (+45%) [1][8]. 3.2 Main Data Review of Commodity Options 3.2.1 Underlying Price Movements - Most underlying futures of commodity options decreased this week, with 41 varieties rising weekly. High - rising varieties were rapeseed meal (+3.17%) and apples (+1.49%); high - falling varieties were polysilicon (-9.79%), rubber (-7.77%), and alumina (-6.53%) [2][15]. 3.2.2 Market Volatility - The implied volatility of some commodities rebounded this week, with 34 varieties having a month - on - month increase in implied volatility and 27 varieties having their current implied volatility below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included polysilicon, industrial silicon, and rubber; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, sugar, and iron ore [2][15]. 3.2.3 Option Market Sentiment - The volume PCR of rubber, synthetic rubber, and rebar is at a historical high, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment; the volume PCR of alumina is at a historical low, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. The open interest PCR of ethylene glycol, cotton, urea, rebar, and PTA is at a historical high, suggesting high - level accumulated bearish sentiment; while the open interest PCR of gold, glass, and soda ash is at a historical low, indicating accumulated bullish sentiment [2][15]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Main Varieties This chapter presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Orient Futures Finoview official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [19].