商品期权市场波动情况

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商品期权周报:2025年第24周-20250615
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 15:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 9 - June 13, 2025), the trading volume of the commodity options market was relatively stable, with the average daily trading volume at 6.04 million lots and the average daily open interest at 8.67 million lots, showing a month - on - month change of -3% and -10% respectively. Investors are advised to focus on potential market opportunities in actively traded varieties [2][7]. - This week, most underlying futures of commodity options rose, with 33 varieties closing up for the week. For market volatility, most commodity implied volatilities increased slightly. High - volatility varieties suggest attention to short - volatility opportunities, while low - volatility varieties indicate that industrial customers can consider insurance strategies. Regarding market sentiment, different varieties show varying degrees of bullish or bearish sentiment [3][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Options Market Activity - The average daily trading volume of the commodity options market was 6.04 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 8.67 million lots, with month - on - month changes of -3% and -10% respectively. Actively traded varieties included PTA, styrene, and soda ash. Three varieties had a trading volume increase of over 100%, with styrene, LPG, and palm oil showing significant growth, while polysilicon and industrial silicon saw a sharp decline. High - open - interest varieties were soybean meal, soda ash, and glass, and varieties with rapid open - interest growth were styrene, silver, and LPG [2][7]. 3.2 This Week's Commodity Options Main Data Review - **Underlying Futures Price Changes**: 33 varieties of underlying futures of commodity options closed up this week. High - gain varieties were crude oil (+13.69%), styrene (+7.94%), and LPG (+5.95%); high - loss varieties were soda ash (-4.62%), urea (-3.43%), and caustic soda (-3.08%) [3][13]. - **Market Volatility**: Most commodity implied volatilities increased slightly. 28 varieties had a month - on - month decline in implied volatility, and 33 varieties' current implied volatility was below the historical 50% quantile. High - volatility varieties included LPG, methanol, etc., and short - volatility opportunities were recommended; low - volatility varieties included vegetable oils, glass, etc., and industrial customers were advised to consider insurance strategies [3][13]. - **Options Market Sentiment**: Varieties such as industrial silicon, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and rubber had a high trading volume PCR at a historical level, indicating strong short - term bearish sentiment. Gold, silver, and methanol had a low trading volume PCR, showing concentrated short - term bullish sentiment. Rapeseed meal, crude oil, cotton, and rebar had a high open - interest PCR at a historical level, accumulating bearish sentiment, while caustic soda, gold, and soda ash had a low open - interest PCR, accumulating bullish sentiment [3][13]. 3.3 Main Varieties Key Data Overview The chapter mainly presents key data of main varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [17]. - **Energy**: Key data of energy varieties such as crude oil, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators, were presented [18]. - **Chemicals** - **PTA**: Data on trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment were provided [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Similar key data for caustic soda were presented [34]. - **Glass**: Key data of glass were shown [40]. - **Soda Ash**: Key data of soda ash were provided [48]. - **Precious Metals**: Key data of precious metals such as silver, including trading volume, volatility, and options market sentiment indicators, were presented [55]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Iron Ore**: Key data of iron ore were provided [61]. - **Silicomanganese**: Key data of silicomanganese were presented [69]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Key data of copper were provided [77]. - **Alumina**: Key data of alumina were presented [87]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean Meal**: Key data of soybean meal were provided [97]. - **Palm Oil**: Key data of palm oil were presented [104]. - **Cotton**: Key data of cotton were provided [113].