整体而言，当前美国资金市场压力明显回落，流动性压力明显可控。如果后续资金市场出现了2019年9 月的极端情形，预计美联储会通过正回购等工具来向市场投放流动性以缓解压力。 美国担保隔夜融资利率和三方一般抵押品回购利率与准备金余额利息（IORB）利差此前有所上升，但 近期有所回落。 今年9-10月SOFR与准备金利率利差、TGCR与准备金利率利差、EFFR与准备金利率（美联储支付给银 行以持有准备金的利率）利差有所上升，反映月末、财政部TGA资金补充等因素影响下回购市场流动 性收紧。类似地，SOFR与OIS利差自7月以来也在进一步上升，银行间流动性收紧。而从SOFR与政策 利率利差来看，此前虽然有所上升，但近期压力水平还明显低于2019年9月的回购市场流动性风险事件 时的水平。并且，在度过10月月末压力后，多个美国回购市场利差指标11月以来均有所回落。 此前美国回购市场压力也推动了金融机构对于美联储流动性工具更频繁的使用，但11月以来SRF流动性 工具使用频率与规模明显回落。 回购协议工具（SRF）支持货币政策的有效实施和市场的平稳运作，初衷是为一级交易商及合格存款机 构提供以国债等高质量抵押品换取短期资金的渠道 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the Federal Reserve's recent easing policies, the overnight financing costs in the U.S. repo market remain high, adding pressure to an already fragile financial market [1] Group 1: Repo Market Dynamics - The general collateral repo rate (GC repo rate) opened at 4.05%, exceeding the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target policy rate range of 3.75%-4.00% by 5 basis points [1] - On October 31, the GC rate peaked at 4.25% due to month-end pressures, as banks reduced intermediary activities to manage higher balance sheet costs [1] - Since mid-October, overnight repo rates have consistently been above the current interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate of 3.90%, indicating a concerning drop in bank reserves [1] Group 2: Hedge Fund Activity - Large hedge funds have significantly increased their long positions in U.S. Treasuries, with a surge of nearly $400 billion in long positions this year, reaching $2.4 trillion [2] - The repo financing scale for these hedge funds has also risen by nearly $700 billion this year, more than doubling compared to 2019 [2] Group 3: Liquidity Constraints - The tightening of overnight liquidity is attributed to several factors, including the U.S. Treasury's substantial issuance of Treasury bills to increase cash balances and the impact of a recent record 43-day government shutdown [3] - As new Treasury bonds are issued, investors must pay cash to the U.S. Treasury, which drains reserves from the private sector and raises borrowing costs in the repo market [3] - Analysts indicate that the recent rise in the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is a clear signal of pressure, with the current EFFR at 3.88%, higher than the 3.86% following a recent Fed rate cut [4] Group 4: Market Risks - Some market participants warn that pressures in the repo market could trigger margin calls on leveraged trades in risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, which have recently seen significant sell-offs [5] - The Federal Reserve has a backstop in the standing repo facility (SRF) to buffer temporary market liquidity shortages, although its effectiveness has been questioned [5] - Federal Reserve officials have encouraged banks to utilize the SRF without fear of it signaling financial distress, with discussions ongoing to ensure its effectiveness in rate management [5]