Workflow
国债供需格局
icon
Search documents
中东战火推升通胀风险 日本财务省超预期削减长债发行稳收益率
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-23 02:07
Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced a significant reduction in the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds, cutting the total issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by March next year, which is double the previously reported draft plan [1] - This decision comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which have increased international oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [1] - The Tokyo bond market showed signs of volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.415%, leading to a decline in bond prices [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the combination of rising oil prices and auction pressures creates a dual challenge, but the revised issuance plan clarifies the supply-demand dynamics for ultra-long-term bonds [2] - The proactive announcement of the adjustment by the Ministry of Finance aims to prevent a repeat of the market turmoil experienced in May, paving the way for the upcoming bond auctions [2] - There are structural contradictions in the adjustment, as the Ministry chose to aggressively cut the issuance of 20-year bonds despite similar supply issues with 30-year bonds, suggesting potential for further adjustments in the future [2] Group 3 - Japan is currently facing a significant rise in the consumer price index, and the upcoming summer elections may lead to increased fiscal expansion demands, raising questions about whether the bond issuance strategy can mitigate these macro pressures [2] - The Bank of Japan recently announced a slowdown in its bond purchase reduction pace, indicating a policy coordination with the Ministry of Finance [2] - The effectiveness of this "supply-side reform" in stabilizing the bond market will depend on geopolitical developments affecting inflation expectations and investor acceptance of ultra-long-term government bonds [2]