当前投资者的核心疑问在于，利率将从当前水平进一步下调多少以及下调速度有多快。伦敦证券交易所 集团（LSEG）数据显示，美联储预测2026年仅会降息一次，但市场多数机构预期降息次数会更多，美 国货币市场已完全消化了额外两次降息的可能性。 下周看点颇多。投资者将密切关注美国延期发布的核心就业与通胀数据，以此判断美联储未来的降息空 间。日本央行、欧洲央行及英国央行的利率决议也将成为市场焦点。市场预计日本央行将加息，英国央 行将降息，而欧洲央行则可能释放利率大概率不会进一步下调的信号。此外，欧美主要经济体12月采购 经理人指数（PMI）表现将反映经济韧性。 美联储政策悬念丛生 尽管市场对通胀的担忧犹存，但就业市场疲软的信号或将进一步强化降息预期。荷兰国际集团（ING） 经济学家奈特利（James Knightley）在报告中表示："美国经济目前很可能正处于就业岗位流失阶段， 这也凸显出明年美联储进一步出台宽松政策的风险正在上升。" 数据方面，市场焦点或将集中于两项因政府停摆而推迟发布的关键数据：定于16日公布的11月非农就业 报告，以及18日出炉的11月消费者物价指数（CPI）。此前公布的11月ADP私营部门就业数据 ...

欧美12月PMI表现如何。 本周全球市场风云变幻，美联储宣布年内第三次降息，AI板块抛售潮再起。 市场方面，美股涨跌互现，道指周涨1.05%，纳指周跌1.62%，标普500指数周跌0.63%。欧洲三大股指 分化，英国富时100指数周跌0.19%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.66%，法国CAC 40指数周跌0.57%。 数据方面，市场焦点或将集中于两项因政府停摆而推迟发布的关键数据：定于16日公布的11月非农就业 报告，以及18日出炉的11月消费者物价指数（CPI）。此前公布的11月ADP私营部门就业数据显示，就 业人数减少3.2万人，远逊于市场预期，这一数据预示着非农就业报告存在下行风险。此外，12月标普 全球制造业及服务业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值、11 月零售销售数据也将分别于16日和17日公布。 美国财政部将于17日拍卖130亿美元20年期国债，并于18日拍卖240亿美元5年期通胀保值债券 （TIPS）。虽然流动性担忧有所缓解，新一轮拍卖仍将考验投资者对长期国债的需求意愿。 财报方面，值得关注的企业包括美光科技、联邦快递、耐克、嘉年华等。 原油与黄金 受地缘政治和全球原油供应持续过剩的拖累，国际油价结 ...

Group 1: Sovereign Debt Market Overview - The sovereign debt market in 2025 has seen the highest yields for 30-year government bonds in Germany, France, and the Netherlands since the 2011 Eurozone crisis, with UK yields reaching the highest level since 1998 [1] - A new vicious cycle is emerging where concerns over sovereign debt are driving up yields, increasing borrowing costs for governments, and leading to larger fiscal deficits and more bond issuance [1] Group 2: Japan's Bond Market Dynamics - Japan's 30-year government bond yields have reached their highest level since issuance in 1999, rising nearly 100 basis points since the beginning of the year [2] - The volatility in Japan's bond market is attributed to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy adjustments, including the end of negative interest rates and a significant reduction in bond purchases [4][5] - Concerns over Japan's fiscal situation have intensified, with political instability further exacerbating market fears [6] Group 3: European Sovereign Debt Concerns - Germany's bond yields have surged due to increased defense spending and the loosening of fiscal constraints, while France faces political turmoil affecting its budget proposals [7][8] - The UK has seen its 30-year bond yields rise to 5.75%, the highest since 1998, driven by expectations of increased taxation and government spending to address fiscal challenges [8] Group 4: Global Interest Rate Trends - Despite entering a rate-cutting cycle, long-term sovereign bond yields continue to rise, indicating a market re-evaluation of sovereign creditworthiness [10] - The persistent high inflation in major economies, particularly the US, has led to a "Higher for Longer" narrative for long-term rates, impacting developed nations' bond yields [10][11] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability and political instability in Europe are contributing to upward pressure on long-term yields, particularly in the UK [11]

Group 1 - The market anticipates the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to restart government bond trading operations, leading to a rise in the 10-year government bond yield [1][3] - The yield on the 10-year government bond increased from 1.7895% to 1.795%, reflecting market volatility [3] - The PBOC has conducted a net purchase of 1 trillion yuan in government bonds from August to December 2024, providing crucial support for market liquidity [3] Group 2 - Economic data from August showed weaker-than-expected performance, particularly in infrastructure investment, indicating ongoing issues with domestic demand [4][5] - The bond market is expected to remain under pressure due to weak institutional sentiment, despite the potential for a recovery in the future [6] - Short-term market conditions may continue to exhibit volatility, with a cautious approach recommended for bond market participation [7]

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has risen to 2.655%, the highest level since 1999, while the 30-year bond yield has reached 3.185%, approaching historical highs since its introduction [1][2] - The fluctuations in bond yields are attributed to expectations of increased bond issuance following the ruling coalition's losses in the July Senate elections, exacerbating the pressure on already strained long-term bonds [1] - Ongoing inflation concerns are increasing pressure on ultra-long-term bonds, forcing the Bank of Japan to face greater interest rate hike pressures [1] Group 2 - Investor demand for Japanese government bonds is declining, with net purchases of bonds with maturities over 10 years by foreign investors dropping to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, only one-third of the June level [2] - The significant decrease in foreign net purchases raises concerns about potential volatility in the long end of the yield curve [2] - Recent increases in open interest in Japanese government bond futures indicate that aggressive traders are increasingly confident that the probability of an interest rate hike in October has shifted from 50% to fully priced in [2]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a short-term correction, with government bond futures declining and interbank bond yields rising slightly, indicating suppressed market sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.36% to 117.88, and the 10-year main contract down 0.12% to 108.325 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.5 basis points to 1.97%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.75 basis points to 1.7275% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 5.84 basis points to 3.668% and the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.231% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 10-year yield up 2.3 basis points to 1.543% [4]. Primary Market Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 3-year and 20-year government bonds at 1.42% and 2.0596%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.86 and 5.2 [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 128.7 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The social financing scale increased by 2.399 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.12 trillion yuan [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the bond market's configuration strength remains intact despite concerns about deposits moving to the stock market, as overall bank deposits have not decreased [8]. - The economic fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with potential for monetary policy easing, leading to a forecasted decline in bond yields by year-end [8][9].

Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance announced a significant reduction in the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds, cutting the total issuance of 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by March next year, which is double the previously reported draft plan [1] - This decision comes amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which have increased international oil prices and heightened inflation concerns [1] - The Tokyo bond market showed signs of volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 2 basis points to 1.415%, leading to a decline in bond prices [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the combination of rising oil prices and auction pressures creates a dual challenge, but the revised issuance plan clarifies the supply-demand dynamics for ultra-long-term bonds [2] - The proactive announcement of the adjustment by the Ministry of Finance aims to prevent a repeat of the market turmoil experienced in May, paving the way for the upcoming bond auctions [2] - There are structural contradictions in the adjustment, as the Ministry chose to aggressively cut the issuance of 20-year bonds despite similar supply issues with 30-year bonds, suggesting potential for further adjustments in the future [2] Group 3 - Japan is currently facing a significant rise in the consumer price index, and the upcoming summer elections may lead to increased fiscal expansion demands, raising questions about whether the bond issuance strategy can mitigate these macro pressures [2] - The Bank of Japan recently announced a slowdown in its bond purchase reduction pace, indicating a policy coordination with the Ministry of Finance [2] - The effectiveness of this "supply-side reform" in stabilizing the bond market will depend on geopolitical developments affecting inflation expectations and investor acceptance of ultra-long-term government bonds [2]

Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance officials have received requests to reduce the issuance of 20-year government bonds [1] - Traders at the meeting generally agreed with the Ministry's bond plan [1] - Some participants requested the repurchase of ultra-long bonds, while others expressed concerns that repurchases could harm market autonomy [1] Group 2 - There are currently no plans to repurchase bonds, and such repurchases cannot be implemented immediately [1] - The revised bond plan is expected to contribute to market stability [1]

Group 1 - Japan plans to reduce the issuance of ultra-long-term Japanese government bonds by 3.2 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025 [1] - The issuance amount for 20-year bonds will be decreased by 200 billion yen per auction [1] - The issuance amount for 30-year bonds will be decreased by 100 billion yen per auction [1] - The issuance amount for 40-year bonds will be decreased by 100 billion yen per auction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan will reduce the issuance amount of 20-year government bonds by 200 billion yen in each auction [1] Group 1 - The decision reflects Japan's ongoing adjustments in its fiscal policy [1] - This reduction may impact the overall bond market dynamics and investor sentiment [1]