Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Interest Rates - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global yield curve through a "security" premium, with long-term rates rising due to structural changes in fiscal expansion for national security rather than cyclical fluctuations[1] - Major economies' long-term interest rates are rising in unison, driven by structural shifts from geopolitical tensions rather than simple economic cycles, with U.S. fiscal deficit concerns impacting market pricing for long-term inflation and sovereign credit risk[9] - The "safety" premium is being redefined, with national security and supply chain restructuring becoming new anchors for long-term bond pricing, replacing traditional sovereign credit considerations[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - From January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2026, long-term bond yields for China, Japan, the U.S., and the Eurozone changed by +41bp, +149bp, +11bp, and +74bp respectively for 30-year bonds, indicating a significant upward trend[9] - The U.S. fiscal deficit has been expanding, with interest payments on federal revenue rising from an average of 15.07% (2015-2019) to 25.04% in 2025, highlighting increasing debt service burdens[20] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a stable rate of over 2% in 2025, with the IMF revising growth forecasts upward to 2.4% for 2026[64] Group 3: Risks and Market Dynamics - Potential risks include geopolitical crises escalating beyond expectations and U.S. economic performance weakening, which could lead to a decline in risk appetite[3] - The narrative surrounding U.S. fiscal policy may face challenges during the midterm elections, potentially destabilizing commodity and precious metal prices[2] - The market is currently experiencing a "K" shaped recovery, with disparities in economic performance leading to increased pressures on ordinary citizens, as evidenced by rising loan delinquency rates[62]