周三（2月25日），超245亿主力资金涌入有色金属板块，板块吸金额高居31个申万一级行业首位！北方 稀土荣登A股吸金榜第一，和华锡有色、云南锗业等合计5股一同涨停，囊括这些有色金属板块龙头的 有色ETF（159876）场内价格最高上探5.05%，收涨4.02%，收复20日均线，全天获资金净申购480万 份。 有色金属板块缘何强势上涨？或可从三个维度进行拆解： 1、宏观层面，美国政府利用五角大楼AI项目制定关键矿产"参考价格"并构建全球金属贸易集团，标志 着全球金属市场从"成本效率优先"正式转向"安全溢价优先"。银河证券表示，全球关键矿产资源将 因"安全溢价"上行，看好铜、钨、稀土等供需紧张确定性高的关键矿产资源价格上涨趋势*。 2、产业层面，现货黄金冲击5200美元/盎司，而被称为"工业牙齿"的钨，从去年起迎来一轮强势上涨行 情，钨价全年涨幅超220%。五矿证券认为，未来5-10年内，海外难以撼动中国在钨产业链的强势地位 *。中金公司预测，2026-2028年全球钨供需缺口将继续扩大，全球长期供需紧缺将支撑钨价中枢持续上 行*。 3、业绩层面，有色ETF（159876）标的指数成份股为代表的有色板块，2025 ...

Group 1 - Recent prices of various rare earth minerals have reached historical highs, with non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, and tin also experiencing significant price increases [1] - Analysts attribute the surge in rare earth prices to China's stricter export controls, and anticipate a comprehensive revaluation of key resources due to the U.S. "Treasury Plan" and China's increased copper strategic reserves [1] Group 2 - The rapid development of AI has made it a significant consumer of resources, with computational power demands doubling every 3.5 months, leading to increased demand for metals in data centers and power grid construction [3] - The World Economic Forum predicts that by 2035, global data center capacity will triple, and investments in power grids will reach trillions of dollars, enhancing the "AI value" of metals [3] - Vanadium, crucial for energy storage, has a value contribution of 29% in power grid facilities, while copper is essential across AI infrastructure, facing supply constraints due to resource depletion [3] Group 3 - Geopolitical dynamics are creating a "safety premium" for resources, with countries prioritizing strategic autonomy and recognizing key minerals as central to national security [4] - Historical precedents show that safety demands can surpass industrial cycles, leading to significant price surges for metals during geopolitical tensions [4][5] - Recent export control measures from resource-rich countries, such as cobalt bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo and rare earth controls from China, have further elevated safety premiums [5] Group 4 - Investment themes emerging from the intersection of AI demand and geopolitical risks include copper, which is vital for both AI infrastructure and defense industries, and rare earth elements like neodymium and dysprosium, which are critical for AI chips and military applications [7] - Vanadium is recognized as a rising star in energy storage, while lithium and aluminum are experiencing rapid demand growth driven by AI and electric vehicles [7] - Gold remains a traditional hedge against uncertainty, while silver offers both industrial and financial attributes, making it a flexible investment choice [7] Group 5 - The structural bull market for commodities may just be beginning, driven by the dual forces of the AI revolution and safety premiums, positioning resource assets as a new battleground for capital [8] - Investors are encouraged to focus on scarcity and strategic value, moving beyond traditional cyclical frameworks to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the commodities market [8]

2026 年 2 月 11 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】"安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？——《光大投资时钟》 系列第二十九篇 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政 扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩 张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏 观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现出"避风港"属性。风险提 示：地缘危机升级超预期；美国经济超预期走弱并引发风险偏好下行；美国对关键矿 产加征关税政策调整；海外巨头 AI 资本开支低于预期。 【海外策略】恒生科技：战略配置区间已至，逆势布局正当时——港股策略观点更新 当前恒生科技指数已形成"超卖估值洼地 + 资金逆势抢筹 + AI 基本面向上 + 回购 加码在即"的四重底部特征，短期情绪扰动充分释放，风险收益比显著优化，是中长 期战略配置的黄金窗口。优先配置恒生科技 ETF，兼具互联网龙头、AI 应用、算力等 全板块标的，个股配置方向：优先配置"AI+平台"双主线龙头标的，聚焦商业化落 地快、现金流稳健、估 ...

点击注册小程序 核心观点： 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的 结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属 性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现 出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行 全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职 后的"百日新政"引发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信用风险 重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价 期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长 债定价的新锚点。美债"武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业化与资 源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日 总量研究 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？ 核心观点：地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的 上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高 通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选 举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显 现出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行。全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济 周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职后的"百日新政"引 发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信 用风险重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价。期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应 链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长债定价的新锚点。美债 "武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业 化与资源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能。当前利率曲线的陡峭化，起始于 2025 年 1 月 20 日特 朗普就职这一政治事项，但政治动能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the weakening of the post-World War II rules-based international order, with countries prioritizing strategic autonomy and security, leading to increased resilience investments in energy, food, and critical minerals [2][36]. Group 1: Strategic Autonomy and Security - Countries are increasingly focusing on strategic autonomy and security in response to the risks exposed by extreme globalization, as highlighted by Canadian Prime Minister Carney [2][37]. - The need for strategic reserves at both national and industry levels is clear, aiming to secure the foundations of modern industry and defense [3][37]. Group 2: Historical Insights from the Cold War - Historical analysis shows that national security strategies can drive demand for strategic metals, leading to significant price increases beyond typical industry cycles [5][40]. - The geopolitical tensions of the 1970s, particularly the U.S.-Soviet rivalry, created a context where strategic metals experienced dramatic price surges due to increased demand for national defense [8][40]. Group 3: Geopolitical Supply Risks - The U.S. and Soviet Union's competition led to the weaponization of supply chains, with both sides imposing export bans on critical minerals, creating supply shortages and price volatility [9][44]. - The price of strategic metals saw exponential increases during the late 1970s to early 1980s, driven by geopolitical risks and national security concerns [10][45]. Group 4: Current Geopolitical Landscape - Major economies are now issuing "critical mineral lists" to address supply chain vulnerabilities, with the U.S. expanding its list to 60 minerals by 2025 [11][46]. - The concentration of mineral production in a few countries, such as China and Russia, heightens supply chain risks, as these nations dominate the production of many critical minerals [13][48]. Group 5: Demand for Critical Minerals - Key minerals like aluminum, graphite, cobalt, tungsten, and titanium are essential for national defense industries, with specific applications in military equipment and technology [21][56]. - The strategic importance of these minerals is underscored by their critical roles in various defense applications, from ammunition to aerospace components [22][57]. Group 6: Implications for Commodity Pricing - The current geopolitical climate is leading to a rise in "security premiums" for commodities, as countries prioritize securing their supply chains for energy, food, and critical minerals [29][64]. - The historical volatility of strategic metal prices during the Cold War serves as a reminder that national security-driven demand can significantly influence commodity markets [29][64].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities highlights the construction of a copper resource reserve system in China aimed at enhancing the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain, amidst a global context of resource competition and increasing copper shortages, which is expected to drive copper prices up due to a "safety premium" [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Resource Reserve System - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on February 3 that it will enhance the copper resource reserve system by expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism through fiscal subsidies for state-owned enterprises [1]. - The current high-level copper reserve strategy transcends mere price stabilization and aligns with national goals to ensure the security of critical industrial supply chains [2]. Group 2: Global Copper Market Dynamics - The competition among major powers for resource security is reshaping the copper supply-demand balance, with increased reserves leading to reduced market supply and heightened tension [3]. - The anticipated copper shortage is expected to worsen by 2026, with a projected reduction in global refined copper surplus to 170,000 tons, potentially leading to price increases if China engages in significant reserve purchases [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Demand - Recent declines in copper prices have stimulated downstream demand, with a notable increase in orders for copper rods, which surged to 42,000 tons, marking a historical high [4]. - The improved acceptance of lower copper prices has accelerated procurement activities, enhancing market liquidity and supporting a potential recovery in copper prices [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Insights - The strategic value of state copper reserves is highlighted, injecting a "safety premium" into copper prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the domestic copper supply chain's resilience and security through the establishment of a copper resource reserve system [4]. - Global competition for resource security is reshaping the copper supply-demand balance, leading to an expected increase in copper prices due to a "safety premium" [4]. - Recent price declines have activated downstream demand, significantly increasing order volumes for copper products [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent actions by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - Historical context is provided, noting that state reserves typically purchase copper at low prices, with a significant purchase of 300,000 tons in July 2020 to stabilize the market [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the U.S. is also advancing its critical mineral reserve strategy, with copper resources becoming a focal point [3]. - It highlights the potential for a global copper shortage by 2026, with a projected deficit of 170,000 tons of refined copper if China engages in significant stockpiling [3]. Price Outlook - The report suggests that recent market reactions to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations may have been exaggerated, indicating potential for price recovery in copper [4]. - It mentions that the recent drop in copper prices has improved downstream acceptance, leading to a surge in orders, particularly for refined copper rods [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key copper mining stocks such as Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, citing their high valuation margins for 2026 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the commodity market driven by a new Monroe Doctrine centered around the "Trump Doctrine," which emphasizes the U.S. prioritizing the Western Hemisphere for geopolitical and resource security [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Strategy - The U.S. is expected to shift its foreign and security policy direction by early 2026, formally incorporating the "Trump Doctrine" into its National Security Strategy [1]. - This new approach aims to establish a controllable pricing base for resources, shipping routes, and supply chains, integrating them into national security and military deterrence frameworks [1][4]. - The U.S. is likely to adopt a more aggressive stance in securing resources, as evidenced by recent actions regarding Venezuela's oil assets and Greenland's mineral rights [4]. Group 2: Commodity Pricing Changes - Commodity pricing, particularly for copper, lithium, rare earths, energy, and precious metals, is undergoing a fundamental shift, now reflecting "availability, controllability, and political reliability" rather than just marginal supply and demand [2]. - A new commodity cycle characterized by a "security premium" is emerging, indicating that resources are increasingly viewed as geopolitical assets rather than mere commodities [3][25]. Group 3: Regional Political Dynamics - The U.S. strategic focus on the Western Hemisphere coincides with a significant political shift in Latin America, where there is a noticeable rightward movement in the political spectrum [5]. - The political transitions in countries like Argentina and Chile are expected to reduce resistance to U.S. initiatives aimed at enhancing security, trade, and supply chain cooperation [5][6]. Group 4: Resource and Economic Dimensions - The U.S. is highly dependent on imports for critical minerals, with over half of its consumption of 46 minerals reliant on foreign sources, including complete dependence on imports for 15 of them [10]. - The U.S. is attempting to reverse the structural changes in trade and investment in Latin America, where China has become a dominant trade partner in key sectors [6][9]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Management - The U.S. is reclassifying key minerals and energy assets as strategic facilities, integrating them into national security considerations [7]. - Recent trade agreements with countries like Argentina and Ecuador reflect a shift towards a political and security-driven market allocation of Latin American resources [8][9]. Group 6: Pricing Logic and Market Dynamics - The pricing logic for strategic resources is expected to undergo structural changes as they are formally integrated into national security frameworks [16]. - Key minerals are entering a phase dominated by "geopolitical pricing," characterized by heightened sensitivity to geopolitical news and limited price correction space [17][21]. - Precious metals are becoming not only safe-haven assets but also tools for pricing policy uncertainty, with expectations of a bullish trend in the first half of 2026 [18][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. military actions in Venezuela on European markets, highlighting a strong performance in defense stocks and limited reactions in the energy sector, indicating a complex geopolitical landscape and its implications for investment strategies [3][8]. Group 1: Market Reactions - European stock indices saw significant gains, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.94% to 601.76 points, marking a historical high [3]. - The German DAX index increased by 1.34% to 24868.69 points, also reaching a record level [3]. - The UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.54% to 10004.57 points, the first time it closed above 10,000 points [3]. Group 2: Defense Sector Performance - The defense and aerospace sector emerged as the biggest winner in the European market, driven by heightened expectations for increased defense spending due to geopolitical tensions [7]. - Major defense companies saw substantial stock price increases, with Rheinmetall up 9.4%, Leonardo up 6.3%, and Thales up 4.7% [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent escalation in Venezuela reinforces the "security premium" logic, indicating a long-term trend of increased military spending in Europe [7][8]. Group 3: Energy Market Response - The energy market's reaction was more subdued, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 1.7% to $61.76 and $58.32 per barrel, respectively, but without significant volatility [9]. - Capital Economics noted that Venezuela's current oil production and export capacity have significantly declined, limiting the potential impact on global oil supply [9]. - The European energy sector showed cautious performance, with some stocks even declining, reflecting investor skepticism about Venezuela's influence on European energy companies' profitability [10]. Group 4: Natural Gas Market - The natural gas market in Europe remained stable, as Venezuela is not a major player in global gas supply, thus limiting its direct impact [11]. - Current European gas prices are influenced more by seasonal demand and global LNG flows rather than Venezuelan political changes [11]. - The resilience of Europe's energy structure has improved, allowing better handling of sudden supply shocks [11].