Macro Insights - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global interest rate curve through a "safety" premium, indicating that the rise in long-term rates is a structural change driven by fiscal expansion for national security rather than mere cyclical fluctuations [5] - High inflation coupled with fiscal expansion has significantly weakened the traditional safe-haven attributes of bonds, with the macro narrative from Trump expected to dominate asset price fluctuations ahead of the U.S. midterm elections [5] Energy Sector - The core reason for the electricity shortage in the U.S. is the sustained increase in capital expenditure for data centers, leading to a mismatch between capital expenditure expectations, actual demand, and infrastructure capabilities [5] - The report analyzes the future electricity shortage levels in the U.S. under different scenarios and provides an in-depth analysis of the electricity landscape in regions with dense data center construction, such as ERCOT and PJM [5] - The electricity shortage issue is expected to enhance the demand for reliability in the power system, benefiting sectors like gas turbines, power equipment, and energy storage [5] Materials Sector - The price of rhenium powder has increased for two consecutive months, while prices for other materials such as cobalt, lithium hydroxide, and polysilicon have decreased [6] - Uranium prices have risen, indicating a potential shift in the nuclear power materials market [6] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The Hang Seng Technology Index has formed a "deeply oversold valuation pit" with four key characteristics, suggesting a significant optimization of risk-reward ratios and presenting a golden window for medium to long-term strategic allocation [7] - The recommendation is to prioritize the allocation of Hang Seng Technology ETFs, which encompass internet leaders, AI applications, and computing power across the board, focusing on core stocks with rapid commercialization, stable cash flow, and historically low valuations [7]

点击注册小程序 核心观点： 地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的 结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属 性。在美国中期选举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显现 出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行 全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职 后的"百日新政"引发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信用风险 重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价 期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长 债定价的新锚点。美债"武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业化与资 源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日 总量研究 "安全"的溢价：地缘政治如何重塑全球利率曲线？ 核心观点：地缘政治正通过"安全"溢价深刻重塑全球利率曲线，超长端利率的 上行本质是财政扩张服务于国家安全的结构性变化，而非简单的周期性波动。高 通胀下推行的财政扩张，大幅削弱了传统意义上债券的避险属性。在美国中期选 举之前，特朗普带来的宏观叙事仍将主导资产价格波动，人民币计价资产已经显 现出"避风港"属性。 主要经济体超长端利率共振上行。全球超长端利率的同步攀升，并非简单的经济 周期驱动，而是地缘政治裂变下的结构性转向。特朗普就职后的"百日新政"引 发了市场对财政赤字无序扩张与关税冲突的担忧，驱动市场为远期通胀与主权信 用风险重定价。 期限溢价为"安全"进行定价。期限溢价正经历一场范式革命：国家安全、供应 链重塑与科技竞争等无限需求，取代了主权信用成为超长债定价的新锚点。美债 "武器化"事件暴露了储备资产"安全化"的浪潮，而竞争性财政扩张、再工业 化与资源囤积三大结构性因素，彻底颠覆了供需自发调节机制。 关注叙事被颠覆的可能。当前利率曲线的陡峭化，起始于 2025 年 1 月 20 日特 朗普就职这一政治事项，但政治动能 ...