1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Volatile pattern [1] - Treasury Bonds: Bearish pattern [1] - Gold: Bullish pattern [4] - Silver: Bullish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): Volatile pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum, Alumina): Aluminum - Volatile pattern; Alumina - Bearish pattern [4] - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): Volatile [4] - Carbonate Lithium: Cautiously bearish [6] - Silicon Energy: Bearish pattern [6] - Steel and Iron Ore (Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil, Iron Ore): Volatile pattern [5][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Volatile pattern [7] - Soda Ash and Glass: Volatile pattern [7] - Crude Oil: Volatile pattern [9] - Methanol: Volatile pattern [9] - Polyolefins: Bearish pattern [9] - Cotton: Bearish pattern [9] - Rubber: Cautiously bullish [9] 2. Core Views - The market is in a structural situation with cautious sentiment. The decline in trading volume and short - term slowdown of incremental funds limit the overall rise of the stock market. The bond market is under pressure due to economic data differentiation and policy expectations. In the commodity market, factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic data influence the trends of different varieties [1][4][6][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market was weakly sorted on Tuesday, with the ChiNext leading the decline. Trading volume decreased to 2.15 trillion yuan (previous value 2.46 trillion). The real estate and banking sectors led the gains, while the electronics and computer industries led the losses. The stock index futures fell, but the overall decline was smaller than that of the spot index. The market is in a volatile pattern due to cautious sentiment, profit - taking pressure, and short - term slowdown of incremental funds [1] Treasury Bonds - The bond market continued to weaken across the board, with the TL contract having the most significant decline. Domestic economic data is still differentiated. The central bank made a small - scale net withdrawal in the open market, and the capital cost continued to rise. The market's concerns about the bond market intensified, and the upward pressure persisted [1] Precious Metals - The large downward revision of the non - farm employment benchmark in the US further confirmed the cooling of the employment market. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates once in September rose to 93%. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, and it is recommended to hold the previous long positions of AU2512 and AG2512 [4] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price continued to oscillate at a high level. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts was strengthened, but the concern about recession also increased. The dollar index rebounded slightly. The supply of the mining end was tense, and the demand was affected by the high - price aversion. The copper price was supported by the weak dollar and tight supply [4] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The alumina price continued to weaken, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased slightly. The alumina was in a bearish pattern with an expected supply surplus, while the domestic and overseas aluminum inventories were low, and the price was resilient [4] - **Nickel**: The supply of the nickel mining end was loose, and the refined nickel was in an oversupply situation. The price was affected by the fundamentals and showed a volatile and weak trend, but the downward space was relatively limited [4] Carbonate Lithium - The news of the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiawo Mine may lead to a decline in lithium prices. It is necessary to verify the authenticity of the news and the actual progress of resumption [6] Silicon Energy - **Industrial Silicon**: In September, the supply - demand pattern turned to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The market was mainly under pressure and oscillating [6] - **Polysilicon**: The market's expectation of policies such as capacity storage and joint production restriction fermented, but the fundamentals had no signs of improvement. The supply was loose, and the price was suppressed [6] Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar**: The spot price fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased against the season. The supply was not effectively restricted, and the demand in the peak season needed to be verified. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar in the January contract [5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price was stable with a slight increase. The fundamentals of steel were accumulating contradictions, but the terminal demand was expected to improve. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coil to short the steel mill's profit [5] - **Iron Ore**: The consumption of imported iron ore in September was supported by high blast furnace iron - making and pre - holiday replenishment. The supply and demand contradiction was limited, and the price was supported. It is recommended to hold the long - iron - ore and short - rebar arbitrage strategy in the January contract [5][7] Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal**: The coal mines were in the resumption stage, and the coal price was under pressure, but the downward space was limited [7] - **Coke**: The first round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton was basically implemented. The coking enterprises still had a certain profit space, but the futures price was under pressure [7] Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda Ash**: The daily production decreased slightly. Although the supply exceeded demand, the short - term delivery was okay, and the inventory increase of alkali plants was slower than expected. The anti - involution expectation was the key to the future price direction [7] - **Float Glass**: The supply did not significantly shrink, and the high inventory was difficult to digest. The demand might improve seasonally. Whether the anti - involution expectation was falsified determined the future price trend. It is recommended to hold the long positions of the 01 contract below 1200 with a stop - loss [7] Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical events caused short - term price fluctuations, but the market's expectation of supply surplus remained unchanged, which continued to suppress the oil price [9] - **Methanol**: The demand for olefin procurement provided support. The methanol market showed a pattern of weakness in coastal areas and strength in inland areas. The futures price was in a stalemate, and it was recommended to sell the C2300 option [9] - **Polyolefins**: The increase in Middle - East production and the narrowing of the domestic - foreign price difference led to an increase in import offers. The inventory at all levels was higher than last year, and the price was in a downward trend [9] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The new cotton harvest is expected to be abundant, and it is expected to be listed earlier. The demand has not shown obvious peak - season performance. The Zhengzhou cotton may run weakly and oscillate [9] - **Rubber**: The market sentiment weakened, but the fundamentals supported the price. The demand for tires was positive, the new rubber output was affected by the climate, and the inventory was decreasing [9]