Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis points interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of a global liquidity turning point, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a "preventive cut," with expectations of two more cuts within the year, leading to a decline in dollar asset yields and an influx of international capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting A-shares [3][4]. - Historical data shows that since 2005, A-shares have only a 38.9% chance of short-term gains following Fed rate cuts, but this probability increases to 38.9% over a 90-day period, suggesting initial market volatility before a potential medium to long-term bullish trend [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three main investment themes have emerged: 1. **Technology Growth (Semiconductors, AI Computing)**: Lower financing costs from rate cuts favor high R&D sectors, with foreign capital already increasing positions in leading firms like SMIC and North Huachuang [3][4]. 2. **Interest Rate Sensitive Sectors (Brokerage, Innovative Pharmaceuticals)**: Brokerages benefit from improved liquidity, while innovative pharmaceutical companies see reduced financing costs and enhanced valuation flexibility [3][4]. 3. **Core Consumer Assets**: High-dividend stocks like Moutai and Midea are becoming preferred choices for foreign investors due to stable earnings and high dividends, with historical data indicating a potential 46% increase in consumer stocks during rate cut cycles [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The trend of foreign capital returning to China is confirmed, with active foreign investment showing net inflows, and major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expressing bullish sentiments towards A-shares [5]. - The policy space for the Chinese central bank has opened up, allowing for potential future rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, which could lead to improved corporate financing conditions and profitability [5][6]. - A suggested strategy includes maintaining a 50% base position and a 30% flexible allocation, with specific buy and sell points based on market movements, emphasizing a focus on technology leaders and defensive sectors [5][6].

重点策略推荐及操作建议： 联系电话：021-80220262 商品期货方面：贵金属再创新高，新能源金属存在回落风险。 兴业期货日度策略：2025.09.10 操作上： 品种基本面分析及行情研判： | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 资金量能回落，股指延续震荡整固 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二A股市场偏弱整理，创业板继续领跌，沪深两市成交额回 落至2.15（前值2.46）万亿元。从行业来看，房地产、银行板块涨 | | 投资咨询部 | | | | 幅居前，电子、计算机行业领跌。股指期货收跌，但整体跌幅小于 | | | | | | | | 张舒绮 | 联系人：房紫薇 | | | 现货指数，各期指基差略有修复。 | | | | | 股指 | 近期市场情绪谨慎，获利盘兑现压力下，资金量能回落。昨日 | 震荡格局 | 从业资格： | 021-80220135 | | | | | F3037345 | 从业资格： | | | 美国非农就业基准下修幅度超预期，进一步印证美国经济增长放缓 | | 投资咨询： | F03121473 | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from China's "new quality productivity" and "open innovation" in the context of the global investment landscape [1][2] - In 2024, China's listed companies are projected to spend 1.6 trillion yuan on R&D, with over 800 companies achieving a research intensity exceeding 10% [1] - China has maintained its position as the world's leader in innovation, with 26 global top technology innovation clusters in 2024, up from 24 in the previous year [1] Group 2 - The A-share market, comprising over 5,000 listed companies, showcases resilience with three-quarters of companies reporting profits and half experiencing profit growth despite multiple pressures [1] - The capital market reforms in China are attracting global long-term capital, with foreign investment in strategic emerging industries in Shenzhen increasing by 40% in market value since September 2022 [1] - Continuous high-level openness, particularly in the financial sector, is laying a solid foundation for attracting quality foreign long-term funds to China's capital market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the investment opportunities arising from China's "new quality productivity" and "open innovation" in the context of the 2025 Global Investor Conference held in Shenzhen [1][2] - China's real listed companies are projected to spend 1.6 trillion yuan on R&D in 2024, with over 800 companies achieving a research intensity exceeding 10% [1] - The 2024 Global Innovation Index Report indicates that China has 26 of the world's top 100 technology innovation clusters, an increase from 24 the previous year, maintaining its position as the world's leader for two consecutive years [1] Group 2 - The A-share market, comprising over 5,000 listed companies, is seen as a vibrant example of China's economic transformation, with three-quarters of these companies reporting profitability and half showing profit growth despite multiple pressures [1] - The capital market reforms in China are attracting global long-term capital, creating a virtuous cycle of financing, investment, and exit [1] - Since the Central Political Bureau meeting on September 26 last year, the market value of foreign investments in strategic emerging industries in Shenzhen has increased by 40%, with trading volume rising by 90% [1]

中金公司 全球资产重估 20250320 摘要 Q&A 过去一年全球市场发生了哪些变化？中金公司的资产配置观点有何调整？ 去年（2024 年）6 月，中金公司发布了大类资产下半年的展望报告，标题为 "守正待时"。报告的核心观点是防守，因为当时全球市场面临三个重要因素 的影响：首先，中国处于弱复苏状态，对风险情绪有一定压制；其次，美国虽 然投资者热情较高，但经济数据显示出下行趋势；最后，美国和欧洲即将迎来 关键选举，增加了政策的不确定性。这些因素叠加，使得我们在资产配置上采 取更稳健的策略，建议坚守黄金和债券等安全资产。事后来看，这一策略是正 确的，因为黄金价格持续上涨，中国债券表现良好，而美国债券在 7、8 月份也 因经济下行压力而表现突出。 除了防守，我们还关注权益资产，尤其是中国股 票。去年 6 月市场情绪较为悲观，有人将中国与 80 年代的日本进行对比，担心 中国股票可能会经历长期低迷。然而，我们通过研究发现，在过去 100 年中， • 全球宏观环境复杂多变，建议保持稳健的资产配置策略，适度增加权益类 资产，特别是中国股票的配置比例，因其估值相对较低且具有反弹潜力， 同时关注新兴市场机会。 • 中金公司 ...

Strategy - The recent AI boom has significantly shifted investor sentiment and macro narratives, driving the Hong Kong stock market's continuous rise, primarily through valuation-driven growth. The market's optimistic outlook is reflected in the risk premium (ERP) [2] - Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are still at historical low to mid-levels. The dynamic sentiment-driven recovery appears to be nearly complete, with dividend sectors showing a 5% relative space compared to A-shares, while tech sectors are aligned with ROE. The essence of this rebound is based on optimism regarding technology trends [2] - The short-term target for the Hang Seng Index is set between 23,000 and 24,000, with an optimistic scenario reaching 25,000. This static assessment does not imply an inevitable decline upon reaching these levels, but rather indicates potential market divergence if long-term expectations are not met [2] Macro Economy - China's consumption-to-GDP ratio is relatively low compared to international standards. While absolute price levels for goods align with China's economic development stage, service prices are comparatively low. The relative price levels indicate that the perception of low consumption in China is not supported by data [12] - There is significant potential for future consumption growth in China, particularly in the service sector, which has more room for expansion than goods consumption. Areas such as health insurance and entertainment are highlighted as having substantial growth potential. Upgrading goods consumption focuses on quality, while service consumption may require an increase in quantity [12]