Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a strong and volatile pattern in Q4 2025, with the main fluctuation range between 20,400 - 21,400 yuan. The global economic outlook is improving, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle has started, and domestic policies are providing support. Supply has limited increments and rigid constraints, while overall demand remains resilient with a strong new - energy sector and a weak real - estate sector [5][12]. - It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions when the price is below 20,000 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In Q4, the global economic outlook improves, the Fed starts the interest - rate cut cycle, and domestic policies provide support. Supply has limited increments and rigid constraints. The new - energy sector is strong while the real - estate sector is weak, and overall demand remains resilient. The aluminum price in Q4 2025 is expected to be in a strong and volatile pattern [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions when the price is below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to avoid risks and wait and see due to the approaching long holiday. Appropriate holiday inventory can be allocated. Hedging suggestions are provided for spot enterprises [8]. Overall View Market Conditions - **Bauxite Market**: In Q4, the disturbances in Guinea's bauxite market are expected to be controllable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 70 - 75 dollars/ton. Domestic mine governance policies will have long - term constraints on domestic ores, and the supply in Q4 is unlikely to improve significantly [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the domestic alumina's built - in capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,670 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.95%. Some high - cost enterprises may cut production and conduct maintenance in October as the average monthly price declines [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum's built - in capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 4,500 million tons, and the operating capacity is 4,410 million tons with a high operating rate of 98%. The net increase in production this year is expected to be less than 50 million tons. The import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,400 yuan/ton, and aluminum exports are expected to remain resilient [9]. Demand Conditions - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum profiles remains stable at 54.60%. Construction profiles have limited growth due to the weak real - estate market. Auto profiles are stable and improving, but enterprises are skeptical about future order increments. Photovoltaic profiles' major enterprises maintain a high operating rate, but new orders are expected to decline [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increases by 0.8 percentage points to 69.0%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increases by 0.7 percentage points to 72.6%. The overall operating rate of the aluminum foil industry in October is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry increases by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The power grid project is in the peak construction season, and overseas photovoltaic order effects are emerging, ensuring the order saturation of the State Grid in Q4 and next year [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy enterprises increases by 1% to 58.4%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increases by 0.7 percentage points to 56.6%. The overall operating rate of the industry will decline during the National Day holiday [10]. Inventory Conditions - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 61.5 million tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 12% lower than the same period last year. It is expected to increase by 6 - 8 million tons during the double festivals. The inventory of aluminum rods is 11.36 million tons, a decrease of about 13% from last week and about 5% higher than last year. LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue accumulating [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices decline slightly, coal prices decline slightly, and alumina prices continue to decline slightly. In Q4, Guinea's bauxite price is likely to fluctuate between 70 - 75 dollars, corresponding to a cash cost of 2,900 - 3,100 yuan for alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan using imported ores. Aluminum prices decline slightly, with the Fed's interest - rate cut followed by a dollar rebound suppressing the financial premium of metals, but domestic policies provide support [13][14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory increases slightly, and alumina inventory continues to accumulate. The domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreases, and it is expected to increase during the double festivals. Aluminum rod inventory decreases. LME aluminum inventory continues to increase [15][17]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,600 yuan/ton. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increases by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%. The market shows strong domestic demand and emerging sectors offsetting traditional weakness, but small and medium - sized enterprises face order and funding pressures [19][24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,110 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continues to rise. Since June, both long and short positions have been increasing, and the overall market is still optimistic [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract turns to a net short position. Since mid - September, both long and short positions have decreased significantly, with the long - position reduction slightly greater than the short - position reduction. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds continues to decrease slightly. The funds of mid - and downstream enterprises are in a stalemate. The pre - holiday market has strong risk - aversion sentiment [40].