2025.09.29-09.30 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 展望四季度，全球经济预期改善、美联储降息周期开启及国内政策托底，供 应方面，国内外增量有限，呈现刚性约束，新能源板块保持强劲而地产板块 持续低迷，整体需求韧性依旧，预计2025年四季度铝价将呈现偏强震荡格局。 2 20000以下可以考虑持中期多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2 5 1 1支撑约2 0 5 0 0 ,阻力约2 0 9 0 0 ,短线交易。 大区间震荡 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 长假期临近，避险观望为宜。 本周策略建议 适量配置过节库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年9月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 四季度几内亚铝土矿扰动预计可控，但由于其资源垄断性及铝土矿在当地财政的占比较高，预计价格在 | | | 70-75美元/吨波动。国内矿山治理政策，对国内矿石将形成长期约束，四季度供应预计难有明显改善。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止9月26日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9670万吨，产能利用率约85.95%，上周 | | ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets remained stable last week, with financials, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors leading the performance, indicating a general recovery in risk appetite [1][6][13] - The MSCI Global index decreased by 0.1%, with developed markets also down by 0.1%, while emerging markets saw a slight increase of 0.2% [6][13] - The Hang Seng Index's earnings forecast for 2025 was revised upward from 2195 to 2208, showing the best performance among global markets [7][49] Group 2 - Last week, global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and not lowering interest rates, reflecting increased uncertainty in economic outlook [6][62] - The market expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, with the implied rate showing a decrease in anticipated Fed rate cuts from 2.6 to 2.5 times this year [62][66] - Long-term bond yields in major economies, including Germany and Japan, increased, indicating a tightening of liquidity conditions [62][70] Group 3 - Economic expectations improved globally due to easing tariff impacts, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising from -12.9 to -5.8, and for Europe from -4.2 to 10.6 [5][87] - China's Economic Surprise Index reached its highest level since May 2023, benefiting from policy support and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [5][87] - The US job market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding market expectations [76][78]