Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock indices is "volatile" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "volatile" [2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Wind All A up 0.61% and a turnover of 1.93 trillion yuan. The central government is stimulating economic recovery through investment, which may bring incremental funds in the short term, but the long-term effect remains to be seen. Overseas, the Fed's rate cut expectation has slowed, and the domestic small-cap index has been less boosted. The index's future depends on the domestic economic recovery process, and it is expected to remain volatile [1] - Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the central bank conducting reverse repurchase operations and a net withdrawal of funds. The economy remains resilient, reducing the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market rose, with various indices showing different increases. The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project drove up the infrastructure sector. Economic and financial data showed mixed results, with investment continuing to decline and M1 performing well. The central government's economic stimulus measures may bring short-term incremental funds, but the long-term effect is uncertain. Overseas factors also affect the market, and the index is expected to remain volatile [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed lower, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds. Economic data indicates resilience, reducing the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts, and treasury bonds are expected to run bearishly in the short term [2] Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: IH, IF, IC, and IM all increased, with IC having the highest increase of 1.22% [3] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased, with the CSI 500 having the highest increase of 0.85% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS, TF, T, and TL showed different changes, with TL remaining unchanged [3] - **Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds all increased [3] Market News - The S&P 500 hit a new high, while the Nasdaq was dragged down by the tech sector. Gold returned to $3400, and domestic coking coal futures continued to soar [4] - Trump announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines, with tariff rates of 15% and 19% respectively [5][6] - Trump's stance on "firing Powell" softened, and he and Bessent pressured the Fed to cut interest rates [6] - The domestic commodity market had a collective rally, with six varieties hitting the daily limit [7] Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM [8][9][10] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report includes charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures [15][16][18] - **Exchange Rates**: The report includes charts of various exchange rates, such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro against the Chinese yuan, and cross - currency exchange rates [22][23][27]