国家债务上限

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特朗普“大而美”法案,谁受伤,谁受益?
第一财经· 2025-07-04 11:09
2025.07. 04 本文字数:2845,阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 高雅 美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"减税法案赶在他设定的7月4日最后期限之前被送到他桌上签署,但 这份法案将对美国能源和医疗保健造成伤害。 当地时间7月3日,这项法案以218比214的票数通过众议院。"大而美"法案旨在以一揽子立法实现 特朗普的几项核心政策目标,为了延长现行减税政策并增加国防及边境安全预算,将削减医疗补助 (Medicaid)和食品援助项目支出,并取消对电动汽车和太阳能项目的政府支持。 但根据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的估算,预计到2034年,该法案将使国家债务增加4.1万亿美 元,并使1180万美国人失去医保。美国民调公司晨间咨询(Morning Consult)最近调查结果显 示,50%的选民反对"大而美"法案的内容,支持率则为36%。 全球经济分析公司BCA研究地缘政治首席策略师格特钦(Matt Gertken)对第一财经记者表示,该 法案的通过是意料之中,因为美国必须提高国家债务上限,以避免发生技术性违约,同时也要防止在 2026年增税3500亿美元从而对共和党的中期选举产生冲击。不过,法案的通过, ...
彻夜游说能否打破众议院僵局?“大而美”法案能否迎来黎明?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 08:28
Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax bill is facing significant resistance in the House of Representatives, with President Trump urging its passage by July 4 [1][3] - The bill, after being amended and passed in the Senate, must return to the House for a final vote, where it faces opposition from some Republican members [3][4] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will increase national debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $1.1 trillion more than the previous House version [3][4] Group 1: Legislative Process - The Senate passed the bill with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President Pence, but it must now be re-voted in the House due to significant amendments [3] - The House Freedom Caucus has expressed dissatisfaction with the Senate version, citing excessive cuts to Medicaid and high tax reductions [4] - The White House is actively lobbying to secure votes, with Trump and other officials meeting with dissenting members [5][6] Group 2: Economic Impact - The CBO's model predicts that the Senate bill will result in a $3.4 trillion deficit, increasing to $4.1 trillion when including interest costs [7] - The White House argues that the bill will lead to stronger economic growth, countering CBO's predictions of long-term negative impacts [7] - Research indicates that the bill could lead to higher interest rates and a significant increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio, potentially reaching 183% by 2054 [8]