宏 观 研 究 2025 年 09 月 21 日 日英似鹰非鹰陷入纠结，美联储独立性推升美元 ——宏观周报（第 22 期） 投资要点： 宏 观 定 期 报 告 日央行启动 ETF 和 REITs 缩表，但仍担忧经济前景。日本央行继续 维持利率不变，同时决定启动 ETF 和 REITs 的缓慢缩表进程，但强调保 持金融稳定的重要性，预计这一缩表行动对日本金融市场流动性的影响有 限。处置原则中特别强调"尽最大可能避免引发金融市场不稳定效应"， 出售速度是相当缓慢的，每年计划出售的 ETF 和 REITs 分别仅 3300 亿日 元和 50 亿日元，而其 8 月持有存量规模分别为 37.2 万亿日元和 6550 亿日 元。日本央行对于未来的经济展望表达出包括贸易环境与出口、企业利润、 消费者信心等多方面的担忧，加之通胀呈现见顶回落迹象，预计难以支持 日本央行年内重启加息。日本 8 月总体 CPI、核心 CPI（除生鲜食品及能源） 同比分别为 2.7%和 3.3%，分别下行 0.4、0.1 个百分点。预计随着未来日本 经济和通胀数据的持续演绎，日本央行年内重启加息的概率较低，日元汇 率难以获得持续走强的有效支撑。 英 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact and Fiscal Concerns - The recent ruling against the White House's tariff executive order has led to a downward adjustment in inflation expectations and an upward adjustment in Federal Reserve easing expectations, supporting the recession and easing trade narrative[4] - If the Supreme Court maintains the ruling, the potential loss of tariff revenue, estimated at approximately $72 billion from April to July, could impact the deficit rate by at least 0.7 percentage points[4] - Since Q3 2022, the U.S. economy has seen a decline in growth rate, with the annualized GDP growth rate dropping from 3.8% to 1.6% without fiscal support[5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The July tax cut legislation is perceived as a continuation of the previous expansionary fiscal policy, but its actual impact on the economy is uncertain due to indirect effects on corporate and consumer behavior[5] - The government’s ability to spend beyond its means is crucial, with the tax cut potentially allowing for $5 trillion in debt issuance, which requires careful timing to avoid future fiscal constraints[6] - Rising interest rates on debt refinancing are increasing the weighted average interest rate of U.S. Treasury bonds, which has risen to 3.352% as of July 2023[7] Group 3: Interest Payments and Budget Constraints - Federal interest payments are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2024, significantly squeezing non-interest spending, which has dropped from over 95% of total spending in 2020 to around 85% currently[7] - The interest deficit rate is expected to rise from about 10% of total deficit in 2020 to nearly 50% by 2024, indicating a growing burden on fiscal policy[8] - If U.S. Treasury rates rise by 1%, the non-interest deficit rate could decrease by approximately 0.9 percentage points, leading to a potential GDP growth drag of about 0.6 percentage points[9] Group 4: Future Projections and Recommendations - To maintain fiscal stimulus effects, the U.S. may need to either issue more debt or rely on significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would require at least a 100 basis point reduction[10] - The current fiscal environment suggests limited support for economic growth over the next four quarters, with a potential for "stagflation" conditions[11] - Asset allocation strategies should consider precious metals as a safe haven, while also evaluating the risk of overseas assets amid rising credit concerns[11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Trump administration's tariff revenue is seen as a crucial support for U.S. public finances, but recent judicial challenges have raised concerns about its sustainability [1][2] - The U.S. government is set to impose "reciprocal tariffs" starting April 2, initially perceived as a potential economic shock, but later viewed as a source of revenue to offset the fiscal gap from tax cuts [1][2] - A recent court ruling deemed most of Trump's global tariff policies illegal, shaking market confidence and raising doubts about the reliability of tariff revenue [1][2] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) previously estimated that Trump's tariff policy would generate $4 trillion in revenue over the next decade, which could help cover the $4.1 trillion increase in government borrowing due to tax cuts [2] - Analysts warn that the potential loss of tariff revenue could lead to increased bond issuance by the Treasury to cover deficits, resulting in market oversupply and downward pressure on bond prices [1][2] - The current risk in the bond market is asymmetric, with tax cuts remaining intact while tariff revenues may vanish due to judicial decisions [2] Group 3 - Even if tariff revenue continues, concerns remain about the U.S. government's large borrowing scale, with tariffs viewed as a temporary solution [3] - If tariffs are "paused," it would deprive the U.S. of a revenue source, but the larger issue is the government's substantial spending [4] - Without tariff revenue, the debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. could exceed post-World War II peaks by 2029, according to CBO predictions [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The White House expresses confidence that the tax cut legislation will not lead to increased deficits [1] Group 1 - The administration believes that the economic growth generated by the tax cuts will offset any potential revenue losses [1] - Officials assert that the tax cuts are designed to stimulate investment and job creation, which will ultimately benefit the economy [1] - The White House emphasizes that concerns about deficits are not a priority in the context of the tax legislation [1]

Group 1: Market Recovery - The U.S. financial market has recovered significantly since April, with major indices like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rising by 26%, 30%, and 40% respectively by July 11 [3] - Nvidia's stock surged by 90%, indicating strong performance in the tech sector [3] - The market sentiment shifted from panic to optimism, with a notable rebound in asset prices [3][4] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The U.S. economy is supported by a robust private sector balance sheet, with household net worth reaching $179.75 trillion and a low leverage ratio of 70.5% [4] - A significant wave of technological innovation, particularly in AI, is expected to drive investment returns in various sectors over the next 3-5 years [6] - The U.S. government is initiating a new round of infrastructure investment, addressing aging infrastructure and stimulating economic activity [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, with a potential cumulative reduction of 50 basis points in the second half of the year [7] - The Fed's balance sheet has decreased from a peak of $6 trillion to $3.8 trillion, providing ample room for liquidity injection [7] - The anticipated rate cuts are likely to boost asset prices, including equities and bonds [15][18] Group 4: Trade Policies and Market Impact - The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration has created uncertainty, but the worst-case scenarios are believed to have been priced in by the market [10][11] - The potential for trade agreements with several countries could mitigate the negative impact of tariffs on the market [10] - The market is expected to react positively to any favorable developments in trade negotiations [12] Group 5: Tax Policy and Economic Growth - The recently introduced tax reform is projected to stimulate the U.S. economy, with a long-term positive impact on growth despite concerns over increased deficits [13][14] - The tax plan is expected to generate significant revenue through tariffs, potentially offsetting some of the deficit concerns [13] - The market may have underestimated the positive effects of the tax reform on economic activity and asset prices [14] Group 6: Investment Strategies - U.S. Treasury bonds are viewed as a favorable investment opportunity, especially with the expected decline in yields as the Fed cuts rates [20][21] - The stock market is seen as a viable long-term investment, particularly in index ETFs and leading industry stocks [22][23] - Investors are encouraged to adopt a defensive strategy while also considering opportunities for capital appreciation in the equity market [21][24]

Group 1 - The closing price of Shanghai gold futures on July 7 was 771.30 yuan per gram, with a daily decline of 0.54% and a trading volume of 190,256 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on July 7 was quoted at 767.8 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 3.5 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [3] - Market sentiment showed some tension ahead of the July 9 deadline for U.S. tariff negotiations, but there was no panic observed [3] Group 2 - The signing of the tax reduction bill by U.S. President Trump is expected to provide short-term benefits to corporate earnings, potentially boosting stock prices [4] - However, the tax bill is likely to increase wealth disparity and future fiscal burdens, leading to significant internal divisions in the U.S. [4] - Precious metals may continue to face short-term pressure, with gold prices expected to remain in a narrow range, while silver may perform stronger due to economic benefits [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of the "Great American Beauty Act" signed by Trump, U.S. employment data, and tariff policies affecting various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of the "Great American Beauty Act"** The new act extends most tax cuts, with an expected GDP boost of no more than 0.6 percentage points by 2026 and a minimal inflation increase of 0.15 percentage points. The stimulus effect is considered mild, as tax cuts are concentrated from 2026 to 2028, followed by increased spending cuts [1][6][8]. 2. **Tax Cuts and Spending Reductions** The act includes corporate tax cuts, personal income tax extensions, and significant spending cuts in areas like clean energy and Medicaid. It aims to help businesses plan future investments but may exacerbate income inequality by primarily benefiting large corporations [2][3][8]. 3. **Employment Data and Market Reactions** June's non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with 140,000 new jobs added, leading to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, indicating a steady labor market expansion despite a contraction in labor supply [4][16][17]. 4. **Tariff Policies and Trade Agreements** The upcoming 90-day tariff deadline is critical, with potential actions including maintaining current tariffs, adjusting some to relieve domestic pressures, or negotiating new trade agreements. Trump's agreement with Vietnam to impose a 20% tariff has raised concerns about similar actions towards other Southeast Asian countries [5][22][23]. 5. **Fiscal Concerns and Deficit Projections** The new act could lead to an additional deficit of $4-5 trillion over the next decade, but when accounting for $2.8 trillion in expected tariff revenues, the net deficit may only be $1.1-2 trillion, suggesting that market concerns about U.S. fiscal health may be overstated [9][10]. 6. **Government Debt Perspectives** Different economic schools of thought view government debt differently. Classical economists advocate for balanced budgets, while Keynesians support active fiscal policies. Current debt levels are not seen as an immediate risk given the stable economic environment [10][12][13]. 7. **Skill Mismatch in the Labor Market** The U.S. faces a high-low skill mismatch, affecting monetary policy decisions. The Fed is less likely to rush into rate cuts due to strong employment data, which may challenge expectations for future rate adjustments [19][20]. 8. **Future Economic Stability Measures** Trump may focus on creating a stable economic environment to support upcoming midterm elections, potentially continuing tax cuts and promoting job growth [15][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Potential Negative Effects of the New Act** Critics argue that the act may worsen wealth inequality and negatively impact low-income individuals due to reduced welfare spending and increased tariffs [8]. 2. **Sector-Specific Employment Trends** Job growth is primarily in low-skill sectors, while high-skill industries face challenges from AI advancements, indicating a need for workforce retraining [18]. 3. **Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators** The stock market has reacted positively to the tax cuts and other factors, with recent highs attributed to reduced geopolitical risks and stable economic fundamentals [14]. 4. **Long-term Economic Outlook** If tariff uncertainties diminish, there is potential for increased business investment and hiring, which could lead to economic recovery in the third quarter [21].

Macro Analysis - The recovery in U.S. non-farm employment in June 2025 shows concerns as government jobs contributed nearly half of the new jobs, raising doubts about sustainability [1] - Private sector employment weakened, with service sector job additions dropping from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressure from tariffs [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains significant [1] Tax Policy Impact - The successful implementation of the tax reduction bill may partially offset economic pressures from tariffs, but its limited impact suggests it will not provide strong stimulus [2] - The tax bill is expected to increase the U.S. government deficit by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, exacerbating supply-demand mismatches in U.S. Treasury bonds [2] Trade Agreements - The U.S. is focusing on negotiating 10 trade agreements with Asian countries, with preliminary agreements reached with Vietnam and potential agreements with India, Malaysia, and Indonesia [3] - The deadline for negotiations has been extended to September 1, indicating a flexible approach from the U.S. government [3] REITs Market - As of June 30, 2025, the number of public REITs in China reached 68, with a total issuance scale of 177.06 billion yuan [4] - The secondary market for public REITs experienced a price correction but still achieved a positive return of 1.95% for the month [4] Credit Bonds - The total outstanding credit bonds in China reached 29.96 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, with a monthly issuance of 1,316.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 62.65% increase month-on-month [5] - Credit spreads for various levels of local government bonds widened slightly compared to the previous month [5] Automotive Industry - In Q2 2025, Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery, while domestic competitors like Li Auto and NIO stabilized [12] - The Xiaomi YU7 has seen a surge in orders, prompting new energy vehicle companies to enhance their purchasing incentives [12] Chemical Industry - MXD6, a special nylon, exhibits high gas barrier properties and rigidity, with significant application potential in food packaging and automotive sectors [13] - The increasing production capacity of domestic manufacturers is expected to enhance the cost-effectiveness of MXD6 composite materials, expanding its market applications [13] Company Analysis - The report highlights the investment value of YUEJIANG (2432.HK), a leading global collaborative robot manufacturer, emphasizing its strong market position and technological advantages [14] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 500 million, 670 million, and 890 million yuan from 2024 to 2027, respectively, with an "accumulate" rating assigned [14]

Group 1: Tax Legislation Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" tax bill extends corporate and personal tax cuts from 2017, aiming to enhance defense and border security budgets while cutting Medicaid and food assistance spending [3][4] - The bill significantly benefits certain industries by providing tax advantages, while simultaneously reducing incentives for others, particularly in the clean energy sector [4][5] Group 2: Clean Energy Sector Consequences - The legislation cancels multiple clean energy tax incentives, including the termination of a $20 billion greenhouse gas reduction fund and various unallocated funds from the Department of Energy [4][5] - The solar and wind sectors face substantial funding cuts, with a critical tax credit being tightened, requiring projects to be operational by the end of 2027, one year earlier than initially proposed [4][5] Group 3: Traditional Energy Sector Benefits - The bill introduces favorable measures for traditional energy sectors, such as reducing coal royalties from 12.5% to 7% and expanding federal land leasing by 4 million acres [7] - Simplified drilling permit processes and the prohibition of certain environmental measures are expected to boost oil and gas production, benefiting major companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron [7] Group 4: Economic and Social Implications - High-income households are projected to see a net income increase of nearly $13,000, while middle-income families will see a modest increase of $1,430 [9] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will increase national debt by $4.1 trillion by 2034, potentially leading to 11.8 million Americans losing health insurance [9]

Group 1 - The recent tax reform in the U.S. appears to benefit corporations and the wealthy, with corporate tax rates reduced from 35% to 20%, while low-income groups face increased financial pressure due to cuts in medical assistance and food aid [3] - The tax reform is projected to exacerbate wealth inequality, with the top 1% of earners expected to receive over $1 trillion in tax cuts, while the poorest will see their tax burden increase by 4% over the next decade [3] - The average tuition for private high schools in the U.S. has surpassed $60,000, indicating that the tax savings for middle-class families may not be sufficient to cover rising educational costs [3] Group 2 - Trump's trade policies, including the global tariff war, are criticized for potentially leading the U.S. into a "lose-lose" situation, with trade deficits reaching a historical high of $71.5 billion by May 2025 [5] - Prominent figures, including former presidents and business leaders, have opposed Trump's economic policies, indicating a divide even within the Republican Party regarding fiscal strategies [5] - The Federal Reserve has consistently rejected Trump's requests for interest rate cuts, maintaining rates despite inflation remaining at 2.8%, highlighting concerns over the national debt and its implications for economic stability [7]