宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 40 期 国庆消费：出行仍有韧性，商品增长趋缓 核心观点 国庆假期，出行仍有韧性，但增速较五一趋缓。假期前 5 日，全社会跨区域人 员流动量同比增长 5.3%，但增速较五一假期的 7.9%有所放缓。结构上，增速 偏低的是与中长途旅游相关的铁路民航，偏高的是水路和出入境。 零售消费增速偏低，同比增长 3.3%，或隐含 10 月社零有一定压力。结构上， 国补在 10 月延续，拉动家居家电实现双位数增长。 物价冷热不均。食品价格稳定，白酒价格下跌。服务消费价格涨跌不一，机票 价格上涨；电影票价同比下跌近 8%；住宿价格结构分化，一线及高端酒店持 平或下降，但三四线热门旅游景点城市价格明显上涨。 报告摘要 （一）出行：维持韧性，但增速较五一趋缓 今年国庆出行仍有韧性，但增速较五一假期边际放缓。据交通运输部数据，假 期前五天，全社会跨区域人员流动量同比+5.3%，五一假期同比+7.9%。 结构上，增速偏低的是与中长途旅游相关的铁路和民航，同比增速均不到 4%， 五一假期同比增速均在 10%以上。偏高的是水路和出入境，水路客运同比 8.7%，主要受城市观光游、邮轮游推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Jianyin International highlights that the upcoming National Day Golden Week in China will significantly boost short-term consumption, particularly benefiting sectors such as tourism, dining, beverages, outdoor sports, and gold-related businesses [1] Group 1: Impact on Sectors - The Golden Week is expected to drive retail sales growth, with a notable increase during the overlapping period of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in 2025, from October 1 to 8 [1] - Key sectors poised to benefit from the consumption surge include tourism, hospitality, retail, dining, jewelry, ready-to-drink beverages, and outdoor sports, driven by rising demand for services, cultural experiences, and leisure activities [1] Group 2: Policy Support - Recent national service consumption boosting policies and regional initiatives are anticipated to extend the consumption growth during the holiday period, creating short-term investment opportunities in the market [1]