Workflow
国际储备资产多元化配置
icon
Search documents
国际储备地位下降 未必会催生弱美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-18 16:23
Core Insights - The share of US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased by 2.48 percentage points from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, reaching a record low of 56.92% [1] - The ICE US Dollar Index fell by 9.4% in 2025, marking the largest annual decline in eight years, amid concerns over the US economic policies and the weakening of the dollar's credit [1] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, but the relationship between the dollar's reserve status and its exchange rate is not stable [1][7] Group 1: Historical Context - Since the 2008 financial crisis, there has been a reflection on the current dollar-based international monetary system, with calls for a more stable reserve currency [2] - The dollar's share in global reserves was 64.68% at the end of 2016, higher than at the end of 2008, but began to decline after 2017, dropping a total of 7.76 percentage points by Q3 2025 [2] Group 2: Recent Developments - From Q1 2022 onwards, the main beneficiaries of the diversification of international reserve assets have been physical reserve assets, particularly gold, which saw its share increase by 11.93 percentage points [4] - The dollar's share in global reserves decreased by 8.93 percentage points during the same period, while other major reserve currencies also saw declines [4] Group 3: Dollar Index Performance - Despite the decline in dollar reserves, the dollar index increased by 1.9% from Q1 2022 to Q3 2025, indicating a divergence between the dollar's reserve status and its strength [5][6] - The dollar index's performance is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of other major currencies against the dollar [6] Group 4: Factors Influencing Dollar Status - The rise in gold's share in global reserves is attributed more to the increase in gold prices rather than central bank purchases, which contributed only 12.3% to the increase in gold reserves [8] - The dollar remains dominant in international payments and foreign exchange transactions, with a 48.15% share in global payment currencies in 2025, an increase from 2021 [9] Group 5: Future Considerations - The evaluation of the dollar's international status should consider multiple dimensions, including private sector interest in dollar assets, which remains strong despite official sector reductions [11] - The complexity of factors influencing exchange rates suggests that the progress of international reserve asset diversification should not be solely relied upon to predict dollar index movements [12]