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昆仑能源(00135):主业进销价差持续收窄,减值与补贴滞后共同限制业绩
Changjiang Securities· 2026-03-29 07:07
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - In 2025, despite a challenging environment with a mere 0.1% year-on-year growth in national natural gas apparent consumption, the company's natural gas sales volume still achieved a robust growth of 9.4%. However, the gross margin continued to be under pressure, with the weighted average purchase and sales price difference decreasing by 0.02 CNY per cubic meter year-on-year to 0.45 CNY per cubic meter, which limited the performance of the segment. The pre-tax profit from the natural gas sales business decreased by 17.6% year-on-year [2][5]. - The LNG and LPG business operations showed continuous improvement, with pre-tax profits for LNG receiving stations, LNG plants, and LPG sales increasing by 5.3%, 144.7%, and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively. Overall, due to the pressure on the natural gas sales business, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.346 billion CNY in 2025, a decrease of 10.30% year-on-year [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 193.979 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.71%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.346 billion CNY, down 10.30% year-on-year [5]. Natural Gas Sales Performance - The total natural gas sales volume reached 59.255 billion cubic meters, up 9.4% year-on-year, driven by the development of new city gas projects in various provinces. The average sales price was 2.73 CNY per cubic meter, down 0.11 CNY, while the average purchase price was 2.28 CNY per cubic meter, down 0.09 CNY. The gross margin continued to be under pressure, leading to a 17.6% decrease in pre-tax profit from the natural gas sales segment [2][8]. LNG and LPG Business - The LNG receiving stations processed a total of 16.527 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with a high average load rate of 90.8%. The LNG plant's processing volume also increased by 5.3%, and despite a decrease in revenue due to lower processing fees, the pre-tax profit surged by 144.7% year-on-year. The LPG sales volume reached 6.1477 million tons, up 6.3% year-on-year, contributing to an 8.3% increase in pre-tax profit [2][5]. Dividend and Valuation - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.1498 CNY per share for 2025, with an annual payout ratio of 51%, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.32% based on the closing price on March 24. The projected earnings for 2025-2027 are 5.626 billion CNY, 5.921 billion CNY, and 6.321 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 0.65 CNY, 0.68 CNY, and 0.73 CNY, and PE ratios of 10.09, 9.59, and 8.98, respectively [2][5].
昆仑能源(00135):气量稳定增长护航业绩表现,派息稳步提升凸显投资价值
Changjiang Securities· 2025-03-27 05:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a natural gas sales volume of 54.17 billion cubic meters in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, with retail gas volume increasing by 8.1% [2][6]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 187.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 5.960 billion yuan, up 4.89% [6]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a planned annual dividend of 0.3158 yuan per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 43% and a dividend yield of 4.18% based on the closing price on the report date [2][6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company’s industrial gas volume is expected to account for 74.9% of total sales in 2024, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, with industrial gas volume rising by 16.5% [2][6]. - Retail gas volume in the northwest and southwest regions is projected to grow by 12% and 19.2% respectively, significantly outpacing the national average growth rate of 8% [6]. Financial Performance - The company’s LNG processing and storage business revenue is expected to grow by 1.6%, while the tax profit remains stable with a slight increase of 0.2% [6]. - The average load rate of LNG receiving stations is projected to be 87.6%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, while LNG processing volume is expected to increase by 25.6% [6]. Dividend Policy - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan aiming for a payout ratio of 45% of net profit by the end of the fiscal year 2025 [6]. - The company has initiated interim dividends for the first time, with a payout of 0.1641 yuan per share for the interim and 0.1517 yuan per share for the final dividend [6].