国际金价区间震荡
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国际金价进入区间震荡
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 09:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold prices have entered a range - bound oscillation, once falling below $3900 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices are also range - bound, falling below $46 per ounce. Multiple factors such as the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the long - term US government shutdown, and the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause the COMEX gold price to enter a phased range - bound oscillation after a pull - back from its high, and the silver price to enter a range - bound oscillation after a sharp drop from its high [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - COMEX gold prices entered a range - bound oscillation and once fell below $3900 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices were range - bound and fell below $46 per ounce [45]. - On the early morning of October 30th, the Federal Reserve ended its monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%, meeting market expectations [45]. - On the morning of October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents met in Busan, South Korea, to discuss bilateral economic and trade relations. The bilateral economic and trade relations tend to ease, sending a positive signal to the global economy [45]. Short - Term Outlook - Sino - US economic and trade relations are temporarily easing [45]. - The long - term US government shutdown is dragging down the US economy, especially the employment market, and the Federal Reserve may turn dovish [45]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to ease within the year [45]. Price and Ratio - Gold and silver prices are both oscillating, the gold - silver ratio is decreasing, the gold - oil ratio has stabilized after a decline, and the copper - gold ratio is decreasing [7]. Position - Domestic gold futures positions have slightly decreased, and domestic silver futures positions have slightly increased [13]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - The report presents the exchange rate and interest rate spreads between the US and Europe, the US and the UK, and the US and Japan, as well as the comparison of US Treasury bond spreads with overseas and exchange rate changes [16][17][18]. Inventory - The inventory data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are presented, but specific trends are not clearly described [27]. ETF - Gold ETFs have slightly increased, and silver ETFs have slightly decreased [29][32]. CFTC Net Long Position - The net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds are presented [35][38]. Central Bank Gold Reserve - The global major central bank gold reserves and their growth rates are presented [40]. Basis - The gold TD - SHFE basis and silver basis data from 2022 to 2025 are presented [42][43].