1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold prices have entered a range - bound oscillation, once falling below $3900 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices are also range - bound, falling below $46 per ounce. Multiple factors such as the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the long - term US government shutdown, and the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause the COMEX gold price to enter a phased range - bound oscillation after a pull - back from its high, and the silver price to enter a range - bound oscillation after a sharp drop from its high [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - COMEX gold prices entered a range - bound oscillation and once fell below $3900 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices were range - bound and fell below $46 per ounce [45]. - On the early morning of October 30th, the Federal Reserve ended its monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%, meeting market expectations [45]. - On the morning of October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents met in Busan, South Korea, to discuss bilateral economic and trade relations. The bilateral economic and trade relations tend to ease, sending a positive signal to the global economy [45]. Short - Term Outlook - Sino - US economic and trade relations are temporarily easing [45]. - The long - term US government shutdown is dragging down the US economy, especially the employment market, and the Federal Reserve may turn dovish [45]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to ease within the year [45]. Price and Ratio - Gold and silver prices are both oscillating, the gold - silver ratio is decreasing, the gold - oil ratio has stabilized after a decline, and the copper - gold ratio is decreasing [7]. Position - Domestic gold futures positions have slightly decreased, and domestic silver futures positions have slightly increased [13]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - The report presents the exchange rate and interest rate spreads between the US and Europe, the US and the UK, and the US and Japan, as well as the comparison of US Treasury bond spreads with overseas and exchange rate changes [16][17][18]. Inventory - The inventory data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are presented, but specific trends are not clearly described [27]. ETF - Gold ETFs have slightly increased, and silver ETFs have slightly decreased [29][32]. CFTC Net Long Position - The net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds are presented [35][38]. Central Bank Gold Reserve - The global major central bank gold reserves and their growth rates are presented [40]. Basis - The gold TD - SHFE basis and silver basis data from 2022 to 2025 are presented [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The ratio of copper prices to gold prices has fallen to its lowest level in the past fifty years, currently more than two standard deviations below its historical average, indicating that copper is undervalued when priced in gold [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Jefferies suggests that a degree of mean reversion is inevitable due to the current undervaluation of copper relative to gold [1] - The historical anomaly of the copper-to-gold price ratio strongly indicates that copper is undervalued in terms of gold pricing [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The outlook for copper is bullish, with expectations that the valuation gap between copper and gold will narrow due to potential market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent actions have led to a stronger dollar and adjustments in risk assets, with expectations of continued strength in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [3][14]. - The market has overestimated the likelihood of interest rate cuts, with the Fed's stance indicating limited future easing as it approaches neutral interest rates [5][25]. - The anticipated decline in the 30-year Treasury bond is projected to continue, targeting the low point from September 30, 2024 [14][16]. Group 2: A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market has seen a significant drop, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 4000 points, influenced by the Fed's stance and the conclusion of U.S.-China trade negotiations [4][18]. - Caution is advised for investors, with suggested stop-loss levels set at 3926 for the Shanghai Composite Index, as the dollar's strength may pressure bullish positions [4][22]. - The technology sector has shown high absorption rates, but investors are advised against chasing high-volatility stocks at elevated levels, favoring sectors like metals, coal, and renewable energy for potential gains [4][18]. Group 3: U.S. Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience a divergence in performance, with strong earnings driving individual stock performance amid overall market volatility [5][25]. - The market's reaction to the Fed's comments has led to a recalibration of expectations regarding December's interest rate decisions, with a significant portion of the market pricing in potential rate hikes [5][26]. - Earnings expectations for the third quarter are low, suggesting that any positive surprises could bolster stock performance [30]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Market Trends - The onshore RMB has appreciated against the dollar, reflecting the Fed's hawkish stance and the resolution of U.S.-China trade discussions [29]. - The dollar is expected to maintain its strength, with projections indicating a continued upward trend against other currencies, including the euro [29][31]. - The RMB is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations, but it is expected to outperform many other currencies due to supportive domestic policies [29]. Group 5: Commodity Market Outlook - The commodity market has seen a decline, with the Wenhua Commodity Index down by 0.66%, influenced by the Fed's actions and a strengthening dollar [32]. - Overall commodity prices are expected to experience volatility, with specific opportunities identified in copper and oil trading strategies [32][34].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply shortages and strong demand from technology and energy sectors, positioning copper as a strategic resource akin to "new oil" [3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On October 24, the copper futures market saw a net inflow of 3.871 billion yuan, with total funds in copper futures reaching 46.059 billion yuan, making it the second-largest commodity futures after gold [2][3]. - As of October 27, the main copper futures contract surpassed 88,000 yuan per ton, with spot prices in Shanghai exceeding 86,500 yuan per ton and LME prices nearing $11,000 per ton [2][3]. - The market sentiment remains bullish, with predictions indicating a return to supply shortages for copper for the first time in three years [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - The rising copper prices have led to significant gains in the performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous sector, with notable increases in stock prices, such as a 99.36% rise for Tongling Nonferrous Metals and a 178.76% rise for Luoyang Molybdenum from April 9 to October 24 [4]. - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen an overall increase of over 70% this year, approaching historical highs, with copper-heavy ETFs also experiencing substantial growth [4]. - Companies are reporting significant profit increases, with Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit for Q3 reaching 5.608 billion yuan, a 96.4% year-on-year increase, attributed to higher copper production and sales [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The copper market is entering a structural tightness phase, with demand shifting from traditional industries to technology and energy sectors, driven by global energy transitions and AI advancements [6][7]. - Factors contributing to supply constraints include insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining, declining ore grades, and extended development cycles, leading to increased uncertainty in supply [7]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicts a supply shortfall of 150,000 tons by 2026, marking the first such occurrence in three years, with production growth slowing due to incidents at major mines like Grasberg [7].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged, with short - term copper prices needing to consolidate after hitting the $11,000/ton resistance level. The overall strategy is to go long on dips [2][4][67]. - The copper market is facing a situation of tight supply and increasing demand. Supply is affected by factors such as mine - end disturbances and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is driven by emerging sectors like AI, new energy, and storage [2][53][67]. - The copper - gold ratio is at a historical extreme level. Historically, its rebound is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices without a systemic crisis [2][65]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Mine - end Disturbances Increase, and Supply Remains Tight - **2025 Copper Mine Supply Increment Drops Sharply**: In 2025, the expected increment of copper mine supply has dropped to 50,000 tons, far lower than the 640,000 - ton increment in 2024, due to factors like increased mine - end accidents, aging of traditional mines, insufficient capital expenditure of mining enterprises, and increased maintenance costs. Many major mining companies have lowered their production targets [5][6]. - **Limited Expected Increment of Copper Mines in 2026**: The expected increment of copper mines in 2026 is about 560,000 tons, but the actual increment may be less than 200,000 tons due to uncertainties such as the Peruvian general election, strike risks, the resumption of production of Cobre Panama, and the resumption progress of Kamoa [10][11]. - **Long - term Insufficient Capital Expenditure in Copper Mines**: Copper prices usually lead capital expenditure by 1 - 2 years. The capital expenditure of copper mining enterprises has not fully recovered to previous high levels. The capital expenditure growth rate leads the copper mine supply growth rate by 5 - 8 years. After a short - term increase in copper mine supply from 2027 - 2028, there will be a long - term low - growth period [13][18]. Part 2: The Growth Rate of Refined Copper Production Slows Down, and Global Supply Mismatches - **Faster Transmission from Mine - end to Smelting End**: In 2026, with insufficient copper mine increments, processing fees may remain low, and the transmission from the mine - end to the smelting end will be faster. Many smelters face risks of production reduction or suspension [21]. - **Continuous Export of South American Copper to the United States**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, South American copper still gives priority to exporting to the United States, resulting in tight supply in non - US regions. There are opportunities for inter - period positive spreads, and the BACK structure is beneficial to long positions and can support prices [24][32]. Part 3: Emerging Consumption Shows Bright Spots - **Rapid Development of AI**: AI development depends on data center computing power. The copper consumption of data centers is concentrated in power distribution equipment, cables, and cooling systems. The global data center capacity is growing rapidly, which will drive copper consumption, and related grid upgrades and energy storage equipment will also increase copper demand [34][35][36]. - **Lithium - ion Copper Foil Consumption Led by Energy Storage Batteries**: The global copper foil capacity is growing, with lithium - ion copper foil having a relatively high growth rate. Energy storage batteries are growing rapidly, and relevant national plans also indicate a large increment space [41]. - **Population Growth and Increased Military Expenditure**: Although China and the United States may face a decline in copper consumption, global population growth and increased military expenditure will drive up copper demand [49][50]. Part 4: Enhanced Financial Attributes - The copper - gold ratio is an important indicator for measuring economic cycle changes. Currently, the copper - gold ratio has reached a historical low, mainly due to gold price increases. Historically, the rebound of the copper - gold ratio is usually accompanied by economic recovery and rising copper prices, which will support copper prices [55][59][65]. Part 5: Strategy Suggestions - **Unilateral Trading**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy as the long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged [4][67]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider inter - market and inter - period positive spreads [4][67]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent events such as the resurgence of US-China trade tensions, Powell's indication of ending balance sheet reduction, and the crisis in US regional banks have accelerated capital inflows into the gold market. While short-term bullish factors for gold prices are largely priced in, the long-term bull market is far from over. Following the rapid increase in gold prices, copper prices are expected to experience a rebound due to the historical low copper-to-gold ratio and the increasing strategic importance of copper driven by global energy transition and AI revolution [4][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term upward momentum for gold prices may slow down as the market has fully priced in the remaining two interest rate cuts for the year and the marginal easing of US-China trade tensions [5][6]. - Long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact due to the ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions, risks associated with US debt repayment, and the declining purchasing power of the dollar. The US is entering a liquidity easing cycle, which will reopen the space for debt expansion [6][7]. - Historical parallels are drawn between the current situation and the 1970s gold bull market, characterized by rampant dollar liquidity and a loss of Federal Reserve independence, leading to a potential collapse of "dollar faith" [7][8]. Group 2: Copper Market Outlook - The current copper-to-gold ratio is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for copper price recovery following the rise in gold prices. The copper-to-gold ratio has a strong correlation with the US manufacturing PMI, which is currently at a low point [9]. - Copper is entering a structural shortage cycle, with its price center expected to rise in the long term. Demand is shifting from traditional industrial sectors to technology and energy, driven by global energy transition and AI advancements [10]. - Supply constraints are exacerbated by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining, declining ore grades, and extended development cycles. The strategic importance of copper has increased, making it a focal point in global power dynamics and resource nationalism [10].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Recent geopolitical tensions and liquidity expectations have led to a significant inflow of funds into the gold market, with gold prices rising by 12% since October 10, 2025[9][11]. - The current environment is reminiscent of the 1970s gold bull market, driven by excessive dollar liquidity and a loss of confidence in the dollar, suggesting that the gold bull market is far from over[2][17]. - As of mid-2025, gold investment accounted for 3.4% of the global stock and bond market, compared to over 10% during the 1970s, indicating substantial room for growth[2][25]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper-to-gold ratio is at a historical low of 2.43, suggesting that copper prices are significantly undervalued relative to gold, with potential for a corrective rally[3][29]. - The demand for copper is expected to increase due to global energy transitions and the AI revolution, while supply constraints are anticipated to create a structural shortage, raising the long-term price level of copper[3][35]. - Forecasts indicate a global copper supply deficit of 40,000 tons in 2026 and 180,000 tons in 2027, highlighting the tightening supply situation[36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the ETF market liquidity dynamics from September 15 to September 21, 2025, covering the market行情, ETF market概况, and the flow of funds in different types of ETFs [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - China's 10 - year Treasury yield remained flat at 1.87% last week, while the US 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.14% [1]. - Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.30%, Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.98%, CSI 300 decreased by 0.44%, CSI 500 increased by 0.32%, CSI 1000 increased by 0.21%, CSI 2000 decreased by 0.02%, ChiNext Index increased by 2.34%, and STAR 50 increased by 1.84% [1]. - In the Shenwan primary industries, coal (+3.51%) and power equipment (+3.07%) led the gains, while banking (-4.21%) and non - ferrous metals (-4.02%) had significant declines [1]. - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.4906 trillion yuan, an increase of about 8.55% from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached about 2.3816 trillion yuan, a new high [1]. 3.2 ETF Market Overview - The overall ETF market had a net inflow of about 13.6 billion yuan in subscriptions and redemptions. Cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of about 16.1 billion yuan, and equity ETFs had a net inflow of about 4.9 billion yuan [2]. - Among equity ETFs, broad - based ETFs had a net outflow of about 16.9 billion yuan, industry ETFs had a net inflow of about 14 billion yuan, and thematic ETFs had a net inflow of about 7.1 billion yuan [2]. - In broad - based ETFs, STAR 50ETF had a significant net outflow. In industry and thematic ETFs, brokerage and robot concept ETFs continued to have net inflows, and Hong Kong Internet concept ETFs also had continuous net inflows [2]. - Last week, 8 ETF funds were listed for trading, with a total share of about 6.3 billion. There were 23 ETFs that had completed fundraising and were waiting to be listed, with a total share of about 44 billion, mostly being CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETFs [2]. 3.3 Stock - related ETFs - **Stock Broad - based ETFs**: Continued net outflows, while brokerage and robot concept ETFs had net inflows [2]. - **STAR 50ETF**: Had a net outflow of funds last week [2]. - **Newly - listed and To - be - listed ETFs**: 8 ETFs were listed last week with a total share of about 6.3 billion. 23 ETFs were waiting to be listed with a total share of about 44 billion, mainly CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETFs [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall ETF market had a net inflow of approximately 7.2 billion yuan in subscriptions and redemptions last week, with cross - border ETFs having a significant net inflow, while stock - type ETFs had a net outflow [3][28]. - The stock market had a general upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52%, and sectors such as electronics and real estate leading the gains, while sectors like comprehensive and banking had negative returns [2][11]. - The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by about 11% compared to the previous week, but the margin trading balance reached a new high [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Overall Situation - **Interest Rates**: China's 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly increased last week, reaching 1.87% on Friday, and was in a low - level consolidation, consistent with the copper - gold ratio. The US 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreased, reaching 4.06% on Friday [10]. - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.2945 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 11% from the previous week. The margin trading balance reached about 2.3349 trillion yuan, a new high, and the average maintenance margin ratio was 286% [2][10]. - **Newly Issued ETFs**: A total of 8 stock - type ETFs were newly issued last week, with a total issuance scale of approximately 6.017 billion shares [10]. - **Stock Market Index and Sector Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.52%, and most broad - based indexes showed an upward trend. Among the Shenwan primary industries, electronics and real estate led the gains, while comprehensive and banking sectors had negative returns. The congestion indicator of the power equipment industry continued to give a warning [2][11]. II. Capital Inflow into Battery ETF (1) Continuous Net Outflow of Stock Broad - Based ETFs, and Capital Inflow into Hong Kong Internet and Innovative Drug Concepts - **Overall ETF Market Capital Flow**: The overall ETF market had a net inflow of about 7.2 billion yuan in subscriptions and redemptions. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of about - 2.9 billion yuan, cross - border ETFs had a net inflow of about 21 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of about 4.6 billion yuan. Among stock - type ETFs, broad - based ETFs had a net outflow of about 21.7 billion yuan, while stock (industry) ETFs had a net inflow of about 11.6 billion yuan, and stock (theme) ETFs had a net inflow of about 6.4 billion yuan [3][28]. - **Specific ETF Capital Flow**: The Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF had a net outflow of funds last week. Brokerage and chemical ETFs continued to have net inflows, and Hong Kong Internet and innovative drug concept ETFs also had net inflows. The gold ETF rose by 2.30% last week [28]. (2) Capital Inflow into Battery ETF Last Week - **ETF Capital Inflow Ranking**: The top 10 ETFs with net capital inflows last week included Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, and Battery ETF. The top 10 ETFs with net capital outflows included Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF, and Science and Technology Innovation Chip ETF [39][41]. (3) Overview of Newly Listed and Proposed - to - be - Listed ETFs - **Newly Listed ETFs**: A total of 4 ETF funds were listed for trading last week, with a total share of approximately 2 billion shares [3][44]. - **Proposed - to - be - Listed ETFs**: There were 12 ETFs that had completed fundraising and were waiting to be listed, with a total share of approximately 7.9 billion shares [3][44].

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and address "involution - style" competition [2] - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - imported optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [2] - The Coke Association believes that current coke does not meet the conditions for price reduction, and enterprises will jointly limit production to maintain prices [2] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, coke, Shanghai silver, stainless steel, Shanghai gold [3] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.69%, precious metals rose 29.55%, oilseeds rose 10.84%, non - ferrous metals rose 21.35%, soft commodities rose 2.42%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 14.38%, energy rose 2.77%, chemicals rose 11.98%, grains rose 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.94% [3] Group 3: Plate Position - There are data on the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.25%, a monthly decline of 2.39%, and an annual increase of 12.36% [5] - The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly increase of 0.65%, and an annual increase of 10.55% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.61% [5] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily decline of 0.77%, a monthly decline of 0.66%, and an annual increase of 1.22% [5] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and an annual decrease of 9.41% [5]