The copper-to-gold ratio is widely followed as a macro indicator of economic momentum and investor risk appetite. Historically, it has shown a notable relationship with bitcoin (BTC), according to SuperBitcoinBro. Copper is heavily tied to industrial demand and tends to perform well during periods of economic expansion. Gold, in contrast, is a defensive asset that typically outperforms during periods of greater uncertainty and slower growth. When the ratio between the two is rising, it signals a risk-on ...

之所以将铜金比作为2026年铜赔率依据，因为2025年金超涨，超70%的同比涨幅，已是上世纪60年代以 来历史次高点。 新华财经上海12月31日电中信建投证券宏观经济首席分析师周君芝发表观点称，2026年铜或迎来历史级 别上涨。 她认为，供需平衡表能够有效解释并指明铜价趋势，但不能解答赔率问题。2026年铜的赔率答案藏 在"铜金比"之中。虽然今年铜金均创出新高，但铜金比却是历史新低。之所以用铜金比判断2026年铜的 赔率，并非简单地看铜金比朝历史均值方向修复，因为这两年历史经验法失效，例如对全球通胀的判 断，又例如中国地产。 催化今年史诗级别行情的金价上涨，背后三大宏观叙事，恰好成为推升明年铜价的因素。这三大宏观叙 事分别是：牺牲独立性换取的美联储货币宽松、科技催生新产业周期、贸易战全球供应链重塑。预计 2026年同样的宏观叙事会推升铜迎来历史级别上涨。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券研究 文|周君芝 陈怡 供需平衡表能够有效解释并指明铜价趋势，但不能解答赔率问题。2026年铜的赔率答案藏在"铜金比"之 中。 虽然今年铜金均新高，但铜金比却历史新低。之所以用铜金比判断2026年铜的赔率，并非简单地看铜金 比朝历史均值方向修复，因为这两年历史经验法失效，例如对全球通胀的判断，又例如中国地产。 之所以将铜金比作为2026年铜赔率依据，因为2025年金超涨，超70%的同比涨幅，已是1960s以来历史 次高点。 催化今年史诗级别行情的金价上涨，背后三大宏观叙事，恰好成为推升明年铜价的因素。 哪三大宏观趋势？牺牲独立性换取的美联储货币宽松、科技催生新产业周期、贸易战全球供应链重塑。 2025年市场见证金价一再破新高，2026年同样的宏观叙事会推升铜迎来历史级别上涨。 2025年铜价已创下历史新高，回答"历史高位后能否更高"问题，即在胜率较高的市场预期之下，2026年 铜是否还有赔率？ 一、展望2026年铜价，先看2025年极致的铜、金和铜金比 回溯2001年以来的市场表现，可以发现今年铜金表现呈现两个不同寻常的特征 ...

铜还是电动汽车转型的核心材料。未来20年内，能源转型领域的铜需求预计将增长两倍。 就在需求激增之际，新增供应却迟迟无法落地。智利、印尼和秘鲁的供应中断已显现出供应受限的迹象，加剧了市场紧张格局。彭博新能源财经 （BloombergNEF）预测，若不新建矿山，也不显著提升废铜回收利用率，未来25年全球铜缺口可能达到1900万磅。潜在风险：关税政策不确定性与库存博 弈 2025年夏季，美国政府的关税政策意外搅动市场——最初将精炼铜排除在50%关税之外，仅对半成品铜和铜衍生品加征关税。受此影响，铜价大幅下跌。然 而，目前市场对关税范围扩大的担忧日益升温，这可能引发LME库存再次被提取，用于Comex的库存囤积。尽管美国商务部长最初提议从2027年开始逐步对 精炼铜加征关税，但特朗普政府有可能加快实施这一政策。估值信号：铜金比跌至数十年低点，估值修复可期 2025年，黄金和白银以历史性涨势占据头条，但铜可能正在为2026年的惊艳表现蓄力。 纽约商品交易所（Comex）铜价年内涨幅超30%，触及5个月高点5.90美元/磅；伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价突破1.2万美元/磅，创历史新高，年内涨幅达 42%。供应受限、需求结 ...

摘要 人民币汇率短期内或难破 7，尽管中美资产回报率差距缩小，但央行可 能在关键点位干预，以避免过度波动，当前中国基本面尚不支持过高人 民币汇率。 季节性结汇对人民币汇率有显著影响，年初和年底较为明显，助推短期 升值，但不会改变长期基本方向，仅加剧短期波动。 "中国版本套息交易"影响中国版块和结构表现，企业根据国内外资产回 报决策，资金回流对外资占款产生影响，并推动 M1 增速上升，央行需 关注和调控。 央行可能在关键点位干预，防止人民币过度波动，如 7.2、7.3 等点位， 避免自我强化效应，并密切监控市场，适时干预以确保稳定。 2025 年上半年人民币汇率预计难破 7，因中国尚未准备好迎接强势人民 币，且套息交易导致波动较大，央行对汇率把控严格。 长期来看，人民币国际化可能导致黄金价格大幅下跌，因强势国际货币 会削弱黄金作为避险资产的需求，但短期内不会发生显著变化。 2026 年，建议做空美债和做多铜。长期来看，美债利率最终将会上升， 而铜价在经济复苏和需求增加的背景下仍有上涨空间，铜金比是重要指 标。 Q&A 近期人民币汇率升值的原因是什么？这种升值趋势是否会持续？ 近期人民币汇率升值的主要原因包括季节 ...

从金到铜 - 铜金比低位下的有色金属另类投资机会 20151223 摘要 有色金属期货价格指数直接持有上海期货交易所六大金属期货合约，铜 和铝占比超过 65%，铜占比超 50%，受股票市场情绪影响小，更适合 机构投资者进行资产配置，降低组合相关性。 美联储降息预期导致美元走弱，支撑以美元计价的大宗商品需求，中美 两国政策窗口期或将实施积极财政和宽松货币政策，共同构成商品牛市 的基本条件，利好有色金属价格。 全球铜矿供应端在 2025 年经历多次扰动，国际金融机构预测 2026 年 全球铜市可能出现约 15 万吨的供应缺口，铜矿企业资本投入不足导致 新增产能有限，预计 2026 年全球铜产量增速将降至 0.9%。 新能源车、人工智能和电网升级建设是铜需求端长期且确定性高的支撑 因素，新能源车用铜量是同等级燃油车的 3-4 倍，中型数据中心用铜量 可达上百吨，西电东送需要建设特高压输电线路。 降息周期中，金属表现出轮动特征，通常黄金先行，其后是白银，再到 工业属性占比较大的金属。市场从衰退危机模式转换为通胀复苏模式， 铝等股票资产表现出色。 有色金属期货价格指数主要有两个特点。首先是成分分布情况，铜占比最大， 约 ...

铜与黄金之间的比值，即"铜金比"，是一个重要指标，用以衡量两者相对价 值。目前该比值处于历史低位，这是因为尽管两者价格均创历史新高，但黄金 涨幅更为显著。具体而言，今年（2025 年）以来，黄金从 2,600 美元飙升至 4,300 美元左右，而同期内虽然铜也有所上涨，但涨幅相对温和。 这一现象表 明，在当前宏观环境下，尽管贵金属整体需求旺盛，但投资者更倾向于持有避 险属性更强的黄金。然而，从长期来看，这种极端低位的"铜金比"并不具备 可持续性。随着全球经济形势逐步稳定，以及工业需求回暖，我们预计这一比 例将逐步修复，即通过未来一年内黄金价格回调或保持稳定，同时伴随工业用 途广泛且金融属性突出的商品——如铜——价格进一步攀升，实现平衡。 因此， "铜金比"的变化不仅反映了当前市场情绪，还提供了关于未来走势的重要线 索。在判断未来一年内做多某种资产是否具有吸引力时，该指标尤其关键，因 为它能够揭示出不同资产间潜在价值错配及其修正过程中的投资机会。 周周芝道 - 极致铜金比看未来铜走势 20251221 摘要 当前铜金比处于历史低位，表明铜价相对于黄金仍有较大上涨空间，预 计未来一年内铜价将受益于宏观经济驱动因素 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The records discuss the economic landscape in the United States and China, focusing on the differentiation between new and old economies, particularly in the context of rising bond rates and economic pressures [1][2][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Challenges in the U.S.**: The U.S. economy is facing "three highs" challenges: high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages, leading to increased operational costs for traditional businesses and significant economic downward pressure [1][4]. - **Differentiation in Economic Sectors**: There is a clear divide between new and old economies in both the U.S. and China. In the U.S., sectors related to AI and technology are experiencing rapid investment growth, while traditional industries like automotive manufacturing are under pressure from tariffs and rising costs [5]. In China, although emerging industries are growing quickly, they still represent a small portion of the economy, with traditional sectors like real estate facing significant downward pressure [5]. - **Market Trends**: Funds are increasingly flowing into emerging industries in the stock market, while the bond market is attracting capital due to the financing needs of traditional industries and favorable monetary policies [6]. The U.S. stock market is considered overvalued, but not to an extreme level compared to historical bubbles [6]. - **Electricity Consumption and Metal Usage**: The records highlight that electricity consumption in emerging sectors like AI and chips is increasing, while traditional sectors like real estate show lower consumption. Additionally, demand for copper is strong, while demand for rebar is weak, indicating a disparity in resource utilization between new and old industries [7]. - **Gold Price Dynamics**: Gold prices are performing strongly despite the overall economic conditions. This is attributed to a divergence in the relationship between gold prices and bond yields, as well as the copper-gold ratio, which has been declining while bond yields remain high [8]. This suggests a market contradiction where new economic sectors are thriving while old sectors face challenges, leading investors to seek safety in gold and bonds [8]. Other Important Insights - **Employment and Consumer Confidence**: The U.S. is experiencing deteriorating non-farm employment data, with rising layoffs and consumer confidence hitting historical lows, indicating significant issues within the traditional economy [4]. - **China's Market Performance**: In 2025, China's stock market is performing well, with the bond market outperforming stocks. This performance is closely linked to capital returns, which are influenced by trade surpluses and fiscal deficits [9]. The strong capital returns are driving the stock market's performance, highlighting the impact of new and old economic differentiation [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - COMEX gold prices have entered a range - bound oscillation, once falling below $3900 per ounce, and COMEX silver prices are also range - bound, falling below $46 per ounce. Multiple factors such as the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the long - term US government shutdown, and the unresolved Russia - Ukraine conflict may cause the COMEX gold price to enter a phased range - bound oscillation after a pull - back from its high, and the silver price to enter a range - bound oscillation after a sharp drop from its high [45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Review - COMEX gold prices entered a range - bound oscillation and once fell below $3900 per ounce, while COMEX silver prices were range - bound and fell below $46 per ounce [45]. - On the early morning of October 30th, the Federal Reserve ended its monetary policy meeting and announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 3.75% and 4.00%, meeting market expectations [45]. - On the morning of October 30th, the Chinese and US presidents met in Busan, South Korea, to discuss bilateral economic and trade relations. The bilateral economic and trade relations tend to ease, sending a positive signal to the global economy [45]. Short - Term Outlook - Sino - US economic and trade relations are temporarily easing [45]. - The long - term US government shutdown is dragging down the US economy, especially the employment market, and the Federal Reserve may turn dovish [45]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is unlikely to ease within the year [45]. Price and Ratio - Gold and silver prices are both oscillating, the gold - silver ratio is decreasing, the gold - oil ratio has stabilized after a decline, and the copper - gold ratio is decreasing [7]. Position - Domestic gold futures positions have slightly decreased, and domestic silver futures positions have slightly increased [13]. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate - The report presents the exchange rate and interest rate spreads between the US and Europe, the US and the UK, and the US and Japan, as well as the comparison of US Treasury bond spreads with overseas and exchange rate changes [16][17][18]. Inventory - The inventory data of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX are presented, but specific trends are not clearly described [27]. ETF - Gold ETFs have slightly increased, and silver ETFs have slightly decreased [29][32]. CFTC Net Long Position - The net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds are presented [35][38]. Central Bank Gold Reserve - The global major central bank gold reserves and their growth rates are presented [40]. Basis - The gold TD - SHFE basis and silver basis data from 2022 to 2025 are presented [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - The ratio of copper prices to gold prices has fallen to its lowest level in the past fifty years, currently more than two standard deviations below its historical average, indicating that copper is undervalued when priced in gold [1] Group 1: Price Dynamics - Jefferies suggests that a degree of mean reversion is inevitable due to the current undervaluation of copper relative to gold [1] - The historical anomaly of the copper-to-gold price ratio strongly indicates that copper is undervalued in terms of gold pricing [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The outlook for copper is bullish, with expectations that the valuation gap between copper and gold will narrow due to potential market dynamics [1]