【固收】地产债韬晦待时 2025年11月26日，万科发布公告将于12月10日召开债权人会议，审议"22万科MTN004"的展期事项，以稳妥推进该笔债券本息兑付。 "22万科MTN004"发行总 额20亿元，票面利率3%，期限3年，本金兑付日为2025年12月15日。受市场情绪影响，公告后首个交易日（11月27日），万科股票、债券均下跌，多只境内债 券出现盘中临停，美元债同样受波及。 万科短期债务兑付压力仍在，股东支持力度较大。 截至11月13日，25年万科已偿还195.71亿元境内公开债，目前万科境内存续公司债和中票13只，余额为 203.16亿元，境外美元债2只，余额为13亿美元。除"22万科MTN004"外，万科另有37亿元中票将于12月底到期，26年4-7月有100亿元境内债到期。25年以来 万科大股东深铁集团对其资金支持力度较大，根据深交所公告统计，今年2-11月深铁已累计向万科提供借款接近300亿元，用途均为偿还万科在公开市场发行 的债券本金与利息。 地产板块政策托底与行业调整并行。 一方面，2025年地产政策以"稳市场、促复苏"为主线，北上深等城市从需求侧发力，围绕松绑限购、优化公积金与住房 信贷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate bond market has potential for yield exploration in the current low interest rate environment, but the fundamentals of the sector still require further improvement, and bond valuations may experience increased volatility due to event impacts, with an overall strategy recommendation leaning towards cautious defense [1][4]. Group 1: Company Debt Situation - Vanke announced a creditor meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004," which has a total issuance of 2 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 3%, maturing on December 15, 2025 [1]. - As of November 13, Vanke has repaid 19.571 billion yuan of domestic public debt in 2025, with a remaining balance of 20.316 billion yuan in domestic bonds and 1.3 billion USD in offshore bonds [2]. - Vanke's major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided substantial financial support, totaling nearly 30 billion yuan from February to November 2025, primarily for repaying Vanke's publicly issued bond principal and interest [2]. Group 2: Industry Policy and Market Conditions - The real estate sector is experiencing simultaneous policy support and industry adjustment, with 2025 policies focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting recovery, including easing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing credit [3]. - In October, the sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing decreased year-on-year by 18.8% and 24.3%, respectively, due to a high base effect from last year's policy changes [3]. - New construction, construction, and completion areas in October saw year-on-year declines of 29.5%, 9.4%, and 28.2%, respectively, as developers prioritize ongoing projects amid significant financial pressure [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Bond Market Overview - From January to November 2025, a total of 593.681 billion yuan in real estate bonds were issued, while 624.609 billion yuan were repaid, resulting in a net financing of -30.928 billion yuan [4]. - The current non-default real estate bond scale is approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, with a high overall valuation level; about 442.7 billion yuan, or 38.4%, has a yield to maturity of over 2.3% [4]. - The investment strategy suggests that while there is some yield exploration potential in the current low interest rate environment, the sector's fundamentals need improvement, and a cautious defensive approach is recommended, focusing on high-quality central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds with short durations [4].