债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 地产债趋稳信号及进攻型配置思路 ❖ 近年来地产债市场历经风险潜伏、集中爆发至当前的有序化解与收益博弈阶 段，行业信用估值体系持续重构。近期万科债券展期事件发酵，地产板块估值 波动较大，推动市场对地产行业信用边界与定价逻辑再审视。本文回溯过往地 产债板块的调整与修复规律，探寻本轮市场调整的潜在趋稳信号，并进一步梳 理情绪平复后兼具安全性与收益性的配置思路。 ❖ 过往：地产舆情冲击后的板块调整特征复盘 阶段一（2020 年）：行业风险逐渐积累，少数房企出现违约。地产债超额利差 未出现明显走阔，整体跟随债券市场震荡，行业信用风险仍在积累，永煤违约 对地产债外溢影响短期尚未明显释放。 阶段二（2021-2023 年）：违约房企数量明显增加，同期稳地产政策密集落地。 利好政策与违约风险反复影响中低等级地产债主体估值，AA 地产债超额利差 高位宽幅震荡，走阔与收窄周期多在 5 个月左右。 阶段三（2024 年以来）：行业信用风险有序出清，局部风险偶发，机构博弈超 额收益。地产债高票息吸引力较强，成为"资产荒"环境下机构挖收益的"末 端品种"，在 24 年、25 年 4- ...

固定收益周报 成交金额继续增长，收益率整体保持下行 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2026 年 1 月 27 日 核心观点： 本期（1 月 19 日至 1 月 25 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上 行，整体变化幅度为-2 BP 至 6 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债 发行金额较上期持平，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加，定向 工具发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，各品种净融资额增加，企业 债、定向工具净融资额为负，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券净融资额为正。 二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额继续环比增长，中期票据、定向工具成 交金额减少，其余品种成交金额增加。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率多数 下行。信用利差方面，本期中短期票据信用利差整体收窄；企业债 7 年期信 用利差收窄，其余期限多数走阔；城投债 3 年期信用利差收窄，长期限多数 走阔。分位数来看，多数品种利差均处于历史低位，7 年期品种分位数相对 较高。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需求将推动信用债延 续修复行情，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但总体而言，信用债 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent opening of amortized cost bond funds has led to a significant increase in credit bond allocations, with a total opening scale reaching 33 billion yuan, including 8.1 billion yuan for 2-year and 24.9 billion yuan for 5-year funds [1][9] - In the past two weeks, funds have significantly increased their allocation to credit bonds, with net purchases of 62.2 billion yuan from January 12 to January 16 and 105.9 billion yuan from January 19 to January 23, indicating a strong demand for 3-5 year credit bonds [1][9] - The report notes that the 3-5 year short-term bonds have shown outstanding performance, with yields declining by 3-7 basis points and spreads narrowing by 1-6 basis points, particularly highlighting the 4-year AA+ rated bonds which saw a yield drop of 7 basis points [2][10] Group 2 - The report anticipates continued demand for 3-5 year credit bonds in the upcoming weeks, with expected opening scales of 20.7 billion yuan and 22.8 billion yuan, although it cautions that the current spreads are at relatively low levels, limiting further compression [2][10] - The credit strategy suggests that the 4-year bonds have high convexity and should be closely monitored for their allocation value, especially as the amortized cost bond funds enter a concentrated opening period [3][36] - The report emphasizes that the overall sentiment in the bond market is improving, with credit bond yields generally declining and a notable performance in the 3-4 year segment, indicating a potential recovery in market conditions [17][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market has recovered, and credit has followed the decline in interest rates. The credit spreads in the 3 - 7Y period have all converged. The yields of various - term credit bonds have also significantly declined, and the credit spreads of different - term and - grade bonds have shown different changes [3][10] - The spreads of urban investment bonds have generally decreased by 2BP, with spreads of different - rated and - level platforms showing varying degrees of decline [4][15][19] - The spreads of real - estate bonds have generally continued to widen, but the spread of Vanke has been significantly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds have slightly declined [4][25] - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds have continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period [5][33] - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have widened, while the excess spreads of urban investment perpetual bonds have shown differentiation [5][36] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market and Credit Spreads Convergence - This week, the bond market recovered, and the interest - rate curve steeply declined. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y CDB bonds decreased by 2BP, 1BP, 2BP, 3BP, and 4BP respectively. The yields of various - term credit bonds also dropped significantly. From the perspective of credit spreads, the 3 - 7Y credit spreads all narrowed [3][10] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads - The spreads of urban investment bonds decreased by 2BP overall. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all decreased by 2BP compared to last week. By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms decreased by 2BP compared to last week [4][15][19] 3.3 Real - Estate and Other Industrial Bond Spreads - The spreads of real - estate bonds continued to widen overall, but the spread of Vanke was greatly compressed. The spreads of other industrial bonds slightly declined. The spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds widened by 4BP, state - owned real - estate bonds by 1BP, private real - estate bonds by 17BP, and mixed - ownership real - estate bonds converged by 103BP [4][25] 3.4 Secondary - Tier and Perpetual Bond Yields and Spreads - This week, the yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds continued to decline, with the largest decline in spreads in the 3Y period. The yields of different - grade 1Y secondary - tier capital bonds decreased by 1 - 2BP, and perpetual bonds by 2BP; 3Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 3BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP; 5Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 2 - 4BP, and perpetual bonds by 1 - 2BP; 10Y secondary - tier capital bonds by 5BP, and perpetual bonds by 4BP [5][33] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds - This week, the excess spread of 3Y industrial AAA - grade perpetual bonds widened by 0.26BP to 14.67BP, and the 5Y by 0.01BP to 13.21BP. The 3Y urban - investment AAA - grade perpetual - bond excess spread decreased by 0.48BP to 4.03BP, and the 5Y increased by 3.21BP to 13.34BP [5][36] 3.6 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - The overall market credit spreads, commercial - bank secondary - tier spreads, and urban - investment/industrial perpetual - bond credit spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual - bond data. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban - investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the Huafu Securities Research Institute, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [38][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the period from January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, but the net financing amount decreased due to the increase in the maturity scale. In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and most of the yields declined. The credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes and urban investment bonds were differentiated, while those of enterprise bonds mostly narrowed. In the long run, the yields of credit bonds are still in a downward channel, but one should be cautious when chasing high, and can increase positions during adjustments. One can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, and pay attention to the coordination and transformation of allocation and trading strategies [1][53]. - The central and local governments are continuously optimizing real estate policies, which play a positive role in stabilizing the real estate market. As the market stabilizes, risk - preferring funds can consider early deployment in real estate bonds, focusing on enterprises with outstanding new financing and sales performance. The allocation focus is on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [2][55]. - Under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of urban investment bond default is very low, and it can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. One can pay attention to the reform and transformation opportunities of "entity - type" financing platforms, and the allocation strategy can prioritize short - to - medium - term credit sinking, while the trading strategy can choose to extend the duration of medium - and high - grade bonds [3][55]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Situation 3.1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, a total of 335 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 288.193 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%. The net financing amount was 34.34 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 82.176 billion yuan. The issuance amounts of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and short - term financing bills increased, while those of medium - term notes and private placement notes decreased. The net financing amounts of all varieties decreased, with negative net financing for enterprise bonds, medium - term notes, and private placement notes, and positive net financing for corporate bonds and short - term financing bills [12]. 3.1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates announced by the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors all declined, with an overall change range of -8 BP to -1 BP. By term, the 1 - year variety rate changed from -6 BP to -1 BP, the 3 - year variety from -8 BP to -1 BP, the 5 - year variety from -6 BP to -2 BP, and the 7 - year variety from -6 BP to -1 BP. By rating, the key AAA - grade and AAA - grade variety rates changed from -3 BP to -1 BP, the AA + - grade variety from -5 BP to -3 BP, the AA - grade variety from -6 BP to -3 BP, and the AA - - grade variety from -8 BP to -3 BP [13][15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation 3.2.1 Market Trading Volume - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 931.702 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 9.52%. The trading volume of short - term financing bills decreased, while that of other varieties increased [16]. 3.2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, the credit spreads of each variety were differentiated. For enterprise bonds, most of the credit spreads narrowed. For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads were also differentiated [19][25][28]. 3.2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads all narrowed, and most of the 3 - year rating spreads also narrowed. For AA + enterprise bonds, the term spreads mostly narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed. For AA + urban investment bonds, the 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads narrowed, and the 3 - year rating spreads all narrowed [37][42][46]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, there were no company rating (including outlook) adjustments [51]. 3.3.2 Default and Extended - Maturity Bond Statistics - During the same period, there were no defaults or extensions of credit bonds under any issuer [52]. 3.4 Investment Views - The overall view is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that credit bonds will continue the repair market, and one can implement a coupon strategy through credit sinking and extending the duration, while paying attention to the coordination of strategies and the impacts of policies, the equity market, and the supply - demand pattern [53].

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes a focus on high convexity coupon products across different maturities, suggesting a strategic allocation from short to long durations [11][19] - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a divergence in credit spreads, indicating a mixed performance among different bond types [11][6] - The current market conditions present an important window for coupon allocation, particularly in the 3.5-4y, 5.5-6y, and 7.5-8y segments [19][32] Group 2: Market Overview - The yield for 1-year short-term bonds is currently in the range of 1.70%-1.80%, which is approximately 7-9 basis points higher than similar maturity certificates of deposit, indicating a favorable comparison [25][30] - For 2-3 year bonds, the yields are between 1.80%-2.15%, with spreads expected to remain low, making them attractive for investment [26][30] - The 4-5 year bonds show high convexity, with a focus on the value of public bonds, as their spreads have widened slightly, improving their relative value [29][32] Group 3: Policy and Events - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for government investment funds, marking a systematic approach to fund allocation and investment focus [4] - Regulatory bodies are facilitating loan extensions for real estate companies, which is expected to improve their cash flow and market expectations [4] - Vanke has proposed multiple debt restructuring plans, indicating proactive measures to reach consensus with creditors [4]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds have generally increased, with changes ranging from 0 BP to 8 BP, leading to a significant increase in credit bond issuance volume due to a low base effect [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds has increased, while the net financing for targeted tools has decreased; corporate bonds have a negative net financing amount, while other types have positive net financing [2] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts for credit bonds, with most types experiencing growth [2] - Credit spreads have narrowed for most mid-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, as credit bonds continue to perform better than interest rate bonds [2] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are insufficient, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected [2] Company Research: WuXi AppTec (药明康德) - WuXi AppTec expects to achieve a revenue of approximately 45.456 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 15.84%, with continuous operating business revenue expected to grow by approximately 21.40% [6][7] - The adjusted non-IFRS net profit is projected to be around 14.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 41.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach approximately 19.151 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of about 102.65% [6][7] - The strong growth is attributed to the advantages of the CRDMO model, with a focus on integrated services and continuous optimization of production processes [7] - The company plans to focus on its CRDMO business model and has sold parts of its equity in joint ventures, contributing to its profit growth [7] Industry Research: Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to maintain production levels due to acceptable profit margins, although demand is in a seasonal decline [13] - Copper prices are influenced by market sentiment and resource competition, with potential for high volatility [13] - Aluminum prices are supported by high copper prices and strategic resource concerns, while supply remains ample [13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical risks and mixed U.S. employment data [13] - The rare earth market is anticipated to strengthen due to export control measures and strategic importance [14]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit spreads have generally widened, with a focus on prioritizing mid-to-short-term coupon assets for investment [1][10] - The current yield for 1-year products is in the range of 1.72%-1.80%, with spreads below the central level since 2024 by 13-19 basis points [2][24] - For 2-3 year products, yields are between 1.83%-2.10%, and spreads are in the range of 19-42 basis points, with a recommendation to prioritize mid-to-short-term coupon assets due to high demand from funds and wealth management [2][25] Group 2 - The report notes that the 4-5 year products have yields ranging from 2.0%-2.35% and spreads between 26-55 basis points, with a marginal recovery in coupon configuration value [3][26] - For products over 5 years, yields are between 2.23%-2.76% with spreads from 24-64 basis points, indicating a need for cautious trading participation due to market volatility [3][26] - The report highlights that the overall sentiment in the bond market remains cautious, with credit spreads showing weak compression momentum [6][24] Group 3 - Key policies include the Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizing the prevention and resolution of financial risks, and the second meeting of bondholders for "22 Vanke MTN004" [4][28] - The report mentions that nearly 70% of bond-issuing entities in Henan have completed the repayment of hidden debts, indicating significant progress in debt resolution and market transformation [4][28] - The report also notes the first appearance of Guizhou's municipal state-owned enterprise in the capital market, marking a significant event in the current round of debt resolution [4][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the primary market, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month - on - month, with the issuance amount of corporate bonds, medium - term notes, and commercial paper increasing, while that of enterprise bonds and private placement notes decreasing. The net financing of credit bonds also increased month - on - month, with corporate bonds and medium - term notes showing an increase in net financing, and the net financing of enterprise bonds and private placement notes being negative [2][14][60]. - In the secondary market, the trading volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the trading volume of each variety increased. Most of the yields of credit bonds declined, and most of the credit spreads of medium - and short - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds widened. Most spreads are at historical lows [2][19][60]. - From an absolute return perspective, the supply shortage and relatively strong allocation demand will drive the credit bond market to continue its recovery. In the long run, the yield is still in a downward channel, and the strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments is still feasible. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of most varieties has decreased, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. The coupon strategy can be moderately optimistic in the current allocation, and the trading strategy can remain optimistic [2][60]. - From a relative return perspective, although the compression space of credit spreads at all tenors is insufficient at present, the probability of a one - sided correction in the short term is also low. Therefore, investors can still achieve the coupon strategy through credit downgrading and extending the duration according to their own capital characteristics, but they need to pay attention to the rhythm during the allocation [2][60]. - For real estate bonds, as the market gradually stabilizes, funds with high risk appetite can consider early layout, focusing on enterprises with outstanding performance in new financing and sales recovery. The focus of allocation is still on central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and excellent performance, as well as high - quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Investors can extend the duration to increase returns and also appropriately play the trading opportunities brought by the valuation repair of bonds of over - sold real estate enterprises [3][65]. - For urban investment bonds, under the principle of coordinating development and security, the probability of default is very low, and they can still be a key allocation variety for credit bonds. Investors can consider a credit - downgrading strategy for the medium - and short - term in the allocation, and choose to extend the duration for high - grade bonds in the trading [4][66]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Situation - **Issuance and Maturity Scale**: From December 8th to December 14th, a total of 326 credit bonds were issued, with an issuance amount of 275.038 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.09%. The net financing of credit bonds was 73.256 billion yuan, an increase of 19.097 billion yuan month - on - month. By variety, the issuance of enterprise bonds was 0, with a net financing of - 7.287 billion yuan; corporate bonds issued 113 with an issuance amount of 78.848 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4.17%, and a net financing of 25.131 billion yuan; medium - term notes issued 105 with an issuance amount of 94.198 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 52.96%, and a net financing of 41.148 billion yuan; commercial paper issued 92 with an issuance amount of 93.257 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.09%, and a net financing of 18.52 billion yuan; private placement notes issued 16 with an issuance amount of 8.735 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 28.25%, and a net financing of - 4.256 billion yuan [14]. - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance guidance rates announced by the Dealers Association all increased, with an overall change range of 1 - 4 BP. By tenor, the 1 - year variety had a rate change range of 1 - 4 BP, the 3 - year variety 2 - 4 BP, the 5 - year variety 2 - 3 BP, and the 7 - year variety 1 - 3 BP. By rating, the key AAA - rated and AAA - rated varieties had a rate change range of 1 - 3 BP, the AA + - rated variety 2 - 4 BP, the AA - rated variety 3 - 4 BP, and the AA - - rated variety 1 - 4 BP [15]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Market Trading Volume**: From December 8th to December 14th, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 915.761 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.02%. The trading volumes of enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, and private placement notes were 23.503 billion yuan, 357.775 billion yuan, 294.033 billion yuan, 183.844 billion yuan, and 56.606 billion yuan respectively [19]. - **Credit Spreads**: In medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads widened. In enterprise bonds, most credit spreads also widened. In urban investment bonds, most credit spreads widened as well [22][29][37]. - **Term Spreads and Rating Spreads**: For AA + medium - and short - term notes, the 3Y - 1Y term spread narrowed by 2.44 BP, the 5Y - 3Y spread widened by 2.88 BP, and the 7Y - 3Y spread widened by 4.68 BP. For 3 - year medium - and short - term notes, the (AA - )-(AAA) rating spread widened by 1.00 BP, the (AA)-(AAA) spread widened by 2.00 BP, and the (AA + )-(AAA) spread remained unchanged from the previous period [44]. 3.3 Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics - **Credit Rating Adjustment Statistics**: From December 8th to December 14th, the rating (including outlook) of one company was adjusted, which was an upgrade. Xi'an High - tech Financial Holding Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded from AA + / Stable to AAA / Stable by Zhongzheng Pengyuan [57][58]. - **Default and Extension Bond Statistics**: There were no credit bond defaults or extensions from December 8th to December 14th [59]. 3.4 Investment Views The report reiterates the situation of the primary and secondary markets of credit bonds, and provides investment strategies from absolute and relative return perspectives. It also gives investment suggestions for real estate bonds and urban investment bonds [60].

Core Viewpoint - The overall credit risk is expected to remain controllable in 2026, with low spreads and high volatility likely to continue [1]. Supply Side - The issuance policy for local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) is tightening, leading to a net outflow of LGFV bonds, with issuance scale expected to decline over the next two years [1]. - Central enterprises are continuing to increase leverage, contributing significant incremental supply of medium to long-term industrial bonds [1]. - The pace of bank balance sheet expansion is slowing, with weakened capital replenishment motivation; some small and medium-sized banks may still require capital supplementation [1]. Demand Side - The shift to net value-based wealth management and adjustments in fund fee rates are affecting the stability of institutional liabilities and bond allocation preferences, with stable demand for medium to short-term credit bonds, outperforming long-term bonds [2]. - During periods of interest rate fluctuations, coupon income becomes crucial. Since 2022, credit strategy portfolios have outperformed interest rate strategy portfolios, with short-term strategies performing better than duration strategies [2]. - It is recommended to focus on medium to short-term credit bonds to explore coupon income, while also monitoring event/policy impacts for trading opportunities in medium to long-term varieties [2]. Specific Bond Strategies - **LGFV Bonds**: Continue with a short to medium duration coupon strategy, focusing on local bonds and the progress of LGFV transformations. Bonds with medium credit quality should be primarily in the 2-3 year range, while higher-rated LGFV platforms can extend to 4-5 years, considering local debt progress and financial resource endowments [2]. - **Perpetual Bonds**: The trading value and riding space of the curve are emphasized. Although volatility has decreased compared to previous years, perpetual bonds from state-owned banks still hold trading value. Opportunities during significant price drops and riding space on the curve should be monitored [2]. - **Industrial Bonds**: Focus on high-grade central enterprise bonds with a duration strategy, while coal and steel bonds should prioritize coupon strategies. The leverage increase among central enterprises will continue to contribute significant incremental supply [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds**: A defensive allocation strategy is recommended, as the sector's fundamentals still require improvement. The strategy should focus on high-quality central and state-owned real estate bonds maturing within two years, with ongoing monitoring of liquidity, sales recovery, debt maturity schedules, and financing channel changes [3].