Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in China is experiencing a downturn, with major companies like Sunac China and R&F Properties seeing significant stock declines, while analysts express cautious optimism for recovery in core cities [1] Industry Summary - The current real estate cycle is in a "deep water zone," indicating a prolonged period of low performance, particularly affecting companies in the sector [1] - Analysts from Huatai Securities are optimistic about the recovery pace in core cities, especially first-tier cities, as the risks in the real estate chain may have been sufficiently digested [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan predicts continued pressure on real estate companies' performance in Q3, primarily due to declining sales since 2021 leading to lower settlements and profit margins [1] Company Summary - Sunac China (01918) shares fell by 3.85% to HKD 1.5, while R&F Properties (03301) dropped 3.31% to HKD 0.175, indicating a broader trend of declining stock prices among major real estate firms [1] - New City Development (01030) and Greentown China (03900) also experienced declines of 2.19% and 2.05%, respectively, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the market [1] - Analysts expect a weak recovery in the sector's performance between 2025 and 2026, with increasing differentiation in performance among companies as profit margins stabilize and impairments are cleared [1]

智通财经APP获悉，内房股今日普跌，截至发稿，融创中国(01918)跌3.85%，报1.5港元；融信中国 (03301)跌3.31%，报0.175港元；新城发展(01030)跌2.19%，报2.23港元；绿城中国(03900)跌2.05%，报 8.59港元。 申万宏源则预计，三季度房企业绩仍将继续承压，主要源于2021年后销售连续下降导致结算下降；前期 降价促销推动当期结算影响利润率低位。但考虑到随着政府要求房地产行业"止跌回稳"以及企业利润率 见底、减值出清，综合预计25-26年板块业绩有望底部震荡中弱复苏，并且企业之间业绩分化也将进一 步加剧。 华泰证券发布研报称，宏观视角下，当前地产周期磨底进入"深水区"，更看好以一线城市为代表的核心 城市复苏节奏。策略视角下，地产链板块风险消化或已较为充分，优质企业有望受益于业绩预期改善及 龙头进阶的双重逻辑。 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a brief rally, with the three major indices briefly turning negative during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.93 trillion, a decrease of 141.7 billion from the previous trading day, falling below 2 trillion again since September 10. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% [1]. Solar Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the core contradiction in the solar industry is currently "anti-involution," which is driving capacity elimination. The industry is still in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with significant progress made in addressing below-cost sales, leading to gradual price increases for silicon materials, wafers, and cells. However, module prices have limited short-term increases, and future pricing trends need close attention. The tightening of energy consumption standards for polysilicon is expected to be a key method for capacity elimination. The focus should be on capacity integration and industry-wide production control efforts, with a positive outlook on leading material companies and new technology directions such as BC, TOPCon3.0, and slurry [2]. Real Estate Market Analysis - Huatai Securities noted that the real estate cycle is currently in a "deep water zone," with a more favorable outlook for core cities represented by first-tier cities. Since mid-2021, the Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, with a rapid clearing of supply. The year-on-year decline in transaction volume for commercial housing has gradually narrowed since mid-2025, indicating that the real estate cycle has entered a bottoming phase. Although housing prices are still in a bottoming process, the decline has narrowed since September, and with ongoing destocking efforts, a comprehensive recovery in the real estate market is expected to approach in the future [3]. Consumption Trends at Airports - CICC indicated that with the continuous optimization of inbound policies in recent years, "China shopping" is gradually emerging, providing new growth momentum for the domestic consumption market. Airport consumption may benefit slightly from "China shopping," particularly favoring large international airport hubs. However, some bottlenecks still need to be addressed. It is anticipated that both taxable and duty-free sales at airports will benefit from the growth trend in inbound consumption, although the current impact on performance is limited. In taxable commercial areas, airport businesses do not lack popular foreign goods, but shopping time, store layout, and tax refund qualifications may still pose certain restrictions. In the duty-free sector, while Chinese airport duty-free shops are dominated by cosmetics, the price advantage does not effectively drive foreign consumer spending, possibly related to their consumption habits [4].

华泰证券指出，宏观视角下，当前地产周期磨底进入"深水区"，更看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市复 苏节奏。2021年中以来，中国地产市场快速完成了一定体量的调整，且历经了供给侧较快的出清过程， 自2025年中以来，中国商品房成交量同比增速降幅逐渐收窄，月度的年化销售面积维持低位，从量的视 角看地产周期已然进入磨底期：1）自2021年以来本轮地产销售已历经一定程度调整，已越过海外主要 经济体下行周期的区间上沿，不同能级城市的销售面积增速、土地市场Q2以来均呈现磨底特征，本轮 地产调整"底部"区间的成交量自年中或已达到；2）房价仍在探底过程，但9月以来房价降幅已有收窄， 伴随着去库存的持续推进，房产市场的全面修复有望在未来渐行渐近。市场全面修复尚未到来，我们相 对更看好以一线城市为代表的核心城市复苏节奏。 ...