中原证券发布研报称，9月，多晶硅料、硅片、电池和光伏组件价格均出现上涨，但上游价格涨幅高于 下游。光伏玻璃受龙头企业减产，行业库存降低，供给量收缩等因素影响，价格逐步回暖。展望后市， 前期抢装后整体市场乏力，集中式项目拉动装机需求，考虑到终端组件价格承接力度以及反内卷措施的 影响，光伏产业链价格将趋于平稳。 消息面上，根据国家能源局数据，8月国内光伏新增装机7.4GW，同比下滑55.3%，环比下滑33.3%。东 吴证券指出，三季度国内终端需求支撑偏弱，排产端暂时小幅下降，政策引导光伏反内卷力度强，硅料 成为主要抓手，当前价格50元/kg+，硅片和电池顺价，组件待观察终端需求。 智通财经APP获悉，光伏股集体回落，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌7.36%，报8.31港元；福莱特玻璃 (06865)跌6.54%，报11.72港元；信义光能(00968)跌4.45%，报3.65港元；福耀玻璃(03606)跌2.46%，报 74港元。 ...

光伏股集体回落，截至发稿，新特能源(01799)跌7.36%，报8.31港元；福莱特玻璃(06865)跌6.54%，报 11.72港元；信义光能(00968)跌4.45%，报3.65港元；福耀玻璃（600660）(03606)跌2.46%，报74港元。 消息面上，根据国家能源局数据，8月国内光伏新增装机7.4GW，同比下滑55.3%，环比下滑33.3%。东 吴证券指出，三季度国内终端需求支撑偏弱，排产端暂时小幅下降，政策引导光伏反内卷力度强，硅料 成为主要抓手，当前价格50元/kg+，硅片和电池顺价，组件待观察终端需求。 中原证券发布研报称，9月，多晶硅料、硅片、电池和光伏组件价格均出现上涨，但上游价格涨幅高于 下游。光伏玻璃受龙头企业减产，行业库存降低，供给量收缩等因素影响，价格逐步回暖。展望后市， 前期抢装后整体市场乏力，集中式项目拉动装机需求，考虑到终端组件价格承接力度以及反内卷措施的 影响，光伏产业链价格将趋于平稳。 ...

作为全球光伏边框制造领域的龙头企业， 永臻股份 （603381.SH）正沿着"光伏主业巩固根基、 储能 赛 道拓展增量"的战略方向，在 新能源 产业链中寻找新的增长突破口。从6月披露包头储能电站投资计 划，到9月确认项目完成备案进入实质推进阶段，公司储能业务的布局节奏清晰；与此同时，光伏行 业"反内卷"趋势下头部份额集中、越南工厂凸显高盈利优势，多重利好叠加下，公司正构建起更具韧性 的业务格局，而储能业务作为高增长赛道的重要布局，其潜在价值尚未被市场充分挖掘。 包头1.8GWh储能电站落地推进，储能业务有望贡献可观收益 6月，永臻股份发布公告，宣布拟斥资13.1亿元在内蒙古包头建设1.8GWh新型储能电站及配套220kV升 压站，这一举措标志着公司正式从光伏边框单一业务领域，向"光伏+储能"双业务协同的方向迈进，为 公司打开了新的增长空间。 从项目推进进度来看，9月28日公司通过投资者关系活动记录表披露，目前包头储能电站已完成备案手 续及前期各项准备工作，正按既定计划稳步推进。在储能项目的推进流程中，完成备案意味着突破了政 策层面的关键门槛，后续将进入土建施工、核心设备采购与安装调试阶段，按照行业常规推进节奏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic (PV) industry index showed a significant increase of 13.71% in September, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which had a return of 2.74% during the same period [5][8]. - The report highlights a notable decline in domestic new PV installation demand, with August 2025 seeing a 55.29% year-on-year drop in new installations [19]. - The report emphasizes the expected tightening of supply in the polysilicon sector due to proposed energy consumption standards, which could lead to a reduction in effective domestic polysilicon capacity by approximately 16.4% [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The PV industry index experienced a strong upward trend in September, with a daily average transaction amount of 69.616 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [8]. - Most sub-sectors within the PV industry saw price increases, particularly conductive silver paste and inverters, which rose by 31.20% and 27.07% respectively [12]. 2. Industry and Company Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced measures to combat low-price competition in the PV sector, aiming for high-quality development [16]. - The domestic new PV installation capacity for August was reported at 7.36 GW, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [19]. - The polysilicon industry is expected to face supply constraints due to new energy consumption standards, which will require existing companies to meet stricter energy consumption limits [42]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in specific sub-sectors such as energy storage inverters, BC and perovskite batteries, and polysilicon materials, as the competitive landscape is expected to improve [5][19]. 4. Price Data - Prices across the PV supply chain have shown an upward trend, with polysilicon prices ranging from 48 to 55 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 5 yuan increase from the previous month [55]. - The price of N-type solar cells has also seen slight increases, with specific models priced at 1.35 yuan and 1.70 yuan per watt [56].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in polysilicon prices signals a positive trend in the photovoltaic industry, driven by government "anti-involution" policies and industry consolidation efforts [6][9][10]. Group 1: Polysilicon Price Trends - As of September 24, polysilicon prices have surpassed 50,000 yuan per ton, with n-type re-investment material averaging 53,200 yuan per ton and n-type granular silicon at 50,500 yuan per ton [6][7]. - Polysilicon prices have increased for three consecutive months, with n-type re-investment material, n-type dense material, and n-type granular silicon seeing cumulative increases of 54.65%, 55.80%, and 50.75% respectively since June 25 [7][8]. Group 2: Government Policies and Industry Response - The government has consistently emphasized "anti-involution" since last year, with the Central Committee's meetings highlighting the need for industry self-discipline and the exit of inefficient production capacities [10][11]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) organized discussions with key enterprises to address low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated capacities [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Consolidation Efforts - Major polysilicon companies are reportedly planning to establish joint ventures for capacity consolidation, with rumors of a consortium involving traditional giants and new entrants to integrate approximately 700,000 tons of capacity [13]. - GCL-Poly Energy announced a strategic financing agreement to raise 5.446 billion Hong Kong dollars, part of which will be allocated for supply-side reforms and structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity [13][14]. Group 4: Energy Consumption Standards - New energy consumption standards for polysilicon production are expected to significantly impact capacity reduction, with the proposed limits set to be much stricter than current standards [15][16]. - The new standards aim to lower energy consumption levels, which could lead to a reduction in effective polysilicon capacity to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a decrease of 16.4% from 2024 [19]. Group 5: Challenges Ahead - The successful implementation of "anti-involution" measures requires strong government action, as current policies lack enforceability and may not effectively curb overproduction [22]. - Industry consolidation efforts need governmental support to navigate the complexities of financing and stakeholder interests, as relying solely on market forces may prove insufficient [23]. - Addressing demand issues is crucial for the success of capacity reduction initiatives, as current demand remains weak, hindering price transmission to downstream sectors [27][28].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **polysilicon industry** and its dynamics within the **photovoltaic (PV) sector** [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Energy Consumption Standards**: New energy consumption standards may reduce effective polysilicon production capacity by **30%**, down to **2.4 million tons/year**. Non-compliant companies may face rectification or shutdown [1][3]. - **Price Dynamics**: Polysilicon market prices are polarized; resources priced below **52,000 CNY/ton** are in high demand, while those above **53,000 CNY/ton** face limited acceptance. This is attributed to cautious price transmission from components and anticipated hydropower reductions [1][4]. - **Anti-Competition Policies**: The government has strengthened anti-competition policies, introducing penalties for below-cost dumping, which is deemed unfair pricing. This has led to a more robust internal price feedback mechanism [1][5]. - **Profitability Potential**: The average price of polysilicon is approximately **50,000 CNY/ton**, with a cash cost of about **27,000 CNY/ton**, allowing for a net profit of **7,000 CNY/ton**. However, the industry's operating rate is below **70%**, impacting profitability [1][6]. - **Supply Chain Reforms**: Expectations for supply-side reforms in the PV industry are increasing, with a clear logic for price recovery. The commitment to anti-competition measures is crucial for restoring a healthy market structure [1][7]. Additional Important Content - **Recent Price Adjustments**: As of September 5, domestic polysilicon prices have increased, with rod silicon priced at **55,000 CNY/ton** and granular silicon at **49,000 CNY/ton**. The PV sector has shown good performance, primarily driven by energy storage [1][8]. - **Challenges in the Industry**: The polysilicon industry faces challenges such as low operating rates, increased fixed costs due to depreciation, and ongoing losses for some manufacturers despite cost optimization efforts [1][11]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The industry is expected to experience a supply-demand turning point due to anti-competition measures. Key investment areas include polysilicon materials and PV glass, with specific companies recommended for attention [1][14][15]. Conclusion - The polysilicon industry is undergoing significant changes driven by new regulations and market dynamics. The focus on anti-competition measures and supply-side reforms is expected to lead to improved profitability and a healthier market structure in the photovoltaic sector.

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges with overcapacity and the need for restructuring, as evidenced by the case of Runyang Co., which has received support from local government and its second-largest shareholder, Yueda Group, to resolve its financial issues [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions and Support - Yueda Group's decision to rescue Runyang Co. was contentious, with debates on the cost and effectiveness of such support, ultimately leading to Yueda's full commitment to the rescue [2]. - Zhang Naiwen, the chairman of Yueda Group, has a strong background in local government, which may influence the strategic direction of Runyang Co. [4]. - Yueda Group's financial strength, particularly from its coal mining assets, plays a crucial role in its ability to support struggling companies like Runyang [5]. Group 2: Industry Challenges and Responses - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a slowdown, with some projects being paused or terminated, leading to increased pressure on local governments to intervene and support local enterprises [7]. - Local governments are actively seeking ways to assist companies, including providing financial support and facilitating new investments, to prevent operational shutdowns [7]. - The industry is witnessing a trend where companies are exploring international opportunities, such as helping Indian firms build silicon wafer production capacity, which raises concerns about domestic market sustainability [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing restructuring efforts in the photovoltaic industry highlight the importance of financial backing and strategic management to navigate through the current challenges [8]. - The experiences of Runyang and Yueda Group may serve as a model for other companies in the sector, emphasizing the need for resilience and strategic partnerships to survive [8].

送及花业 电力设备/ 光伏设备 2025 年 09 月 25 日 版灵 行业 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 反内卷再出新政策, 相关研究 券研究培 证券分析师 李冲 A0230524070001 lichong@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 联系人 李冲 (8621)23297818× lichong@swsresearch.com 事件: 9 月 24 日国家能源局局长王宏志在学习时报发表的署名文章《以更大力度推动我国新 能源高质量发展》，为光伏产业当前面临的困境指明了出路。文章直指产业痛点，提出以技 术创新驱动降本增效,专项整治光伏产业"内卷式"竞争,推动新能源从单一电力消纳向多 能综合利用转变。 申万宏源研究微信服务号 向明确 -光伏反内卷点评 明确光伏消纳发展路径转变,从单一消纳转向多能综合利用。文章提出了明确的发展路 ● 径的转变："坚持电与非电并重，推动新能源从单一电力消纳向多能综合利用转变"。 这一转变对缓解当前光伏消纳压力具有重要意义。2025 年 1—7 月,全国光伏发电利 用率为 94.7%，同 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [8] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry from a single energy consumption model to a multi-energy comprehensive utilization model, which is crucial for alleviating current PV consumption pressures [2][3] - Future development of renewable energy is expected to transition from a "resource-oriented" approach to a "market-oriented" approach, emphasizing cost control and operational efficiency over mere resource availability [2] - Key measures to break the "involution" in the industry include policy coordination and technological innovation, which are essential for addressing the supply-demand imbalance in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector [2] Summary by Sections Industry Transition - The article emphasizes the need for a transition in the PV industry towards multi-energy utilization, particularly highlighting the importance of hydrogen production from renewable sources [2] - The utilization rate of PV power generation in China was reported at 94.7% for January to July 2025, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating increasing pressure on the power system [2] Market Dynamics - The report stresses that the competitiveness of PV power stations will increasingly depend on market capabilities such as cost control and bidding strategies rather than just resource conditions [2] - The current challenges faced by renewable energy in the power market include weak bargaining power and exposure to price volatility, leading to situations where companies experience "increased output without increased revenue" [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that will benefit from the "involution" reversal, particularly in the silicon material segment, including companies like GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [2] - It also highlights the importance of new technology firms such as Aiko Solar in the evolving market landscape [2] Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided for key companies in the power equipment sector, detailing their stock prices, market capitalizations, and projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the integrated development of Kangnong Agriculture, focusing on hybrid corn seed production, breeding, and promotion, achieving a revenue CAGR of 30.5% and a profit CAGR of 42.1% from 2022 to 2024 [2][10] - The industry is experiencing a demand for high-yield and quality varieties, with a projected tight balance in corn supply and demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to stable corn prices and positive planting enthusiasm among farmers [2][10] - Kangnong's flagship product, Kangnong Yu 8009, is expected to drive growth, with sales projections indicating significant volume increases in the coming years [2][10] Company Overview - Kangnong Agriculture specializes in hybrid corn seeds and has streamlined its operations across breeding, propagation, and promotion since 2017 [2][10] - The company has successfully entered new markets, including the Huanghuaihai summer sowing area and northern spring sowing area, which have become new growth drivers [2][10] Industry Analysis - The seed market is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected supply-demand ratio of 175% for the 2024/25 season, indicating a high inventory situation that may take 2-3 years to improve [2][10] - High-quality varieties are favored in the market, commanding better price premiums, while competition among homogeneous varieties remains intense, putting pressure on prices [2][10] Short-term Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to achieve both revenue growth and cost reduction, with expectations of increased gross margins due to self-propagation models [2][10] - The anticipated gross margin for 2025 is projected to improve by 1.2-5.0 percentage points based on sensitivity analysis [2][10] Long-term Strategy - Kangnong plans to expand its national sales footprint, leveraging its market position in the Southwest and introducing diverse product offerings in the Huanghuaihai and Northeast markets [2][10] - The company has a robust pipeline for transgenic varieties, with a strategic rollout across different regions [2][10] Investment Rating and Valuation - The report forecasts Kangnong's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 0.96 billion, 1.23 billion, and 1.50 billion respectively, with a target market capitalization of 4.5 billion, indicating a potential upside of 90% from the current closing price [2][10] - The report assigns a "Buy" rating based on the company's growth potential and favorable market conditions [2][10]