丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Title] 7 月地方债预计净供给 8959 亿 ——政府债周报（6/29） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 6 月 30 日-7 月 6 日地方债披露发行 721.4 亿元。其中新增债 574.3 亿元（新增一般债 66.0 亿 元，新增专项债 508.3 亿元），再融资债 147.1 亿元（再融资一般债 146.4 亿元，再融资专项债 0.7 亿元）。 6 月 23 日-6 月 29 日地方债共发行 6416.4 亿元。其中新增债 4794.7 亿元（新增一般债 571.7 亿元，新增专项债 4222.9 亿元），再融资债 1621.7 亿元（再融资一般债 849.9 亿元，再融资 专项债 771.9 亿元）。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 固定收益丨点评报告 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 7 月地方债预计净供给 2] 8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From June 9 to June 15, local government bonds are expected to be issued worth 10.7786 billion yuan, including 0.8372 billion yuan in new bonds (0.13 billion yuan in new general bonds and 0.7072 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 9.9414 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (5.9343 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 4.007 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][6]. - From June 2 to June 8, local government bonds were actually issued worth 10.9595 billion yuan, including 1.598 billion yuan in new bonds (0.8676 billion yuan in new general bonds and 0.7304 billion yuan in new special bonds) and 9.3615 billion yuan in refinancing bonds (6.0079 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds) [2][7]. - As of June 8, the total disclosed issuance of the fourth - round special refinancing bonds reached 406.361 billion yuan, with 167.5085 billion yuan disclosed in 2025 and an additional 2.6693 billion yuan to be disclosed next week. The top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets in terms of disclosed issuance are Jiangsu (56.47 billion yuan), Shandong (23.6072 billion yuan), and Sichuan (23.5121 billion yuan) [8]. - As of June 8, the total disclosed issuance of special new special bonds in 2025 was 24.3384 billion yuan, and since 2023, it has reached 143.3897 billion yuan. The top three in terms of disclosed issuance are Jiangsu (21.0235 billion yuan), Hubei (10.6856 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (9.102 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three provinces or municipalities with separately - planned budgets are Jiangsu (9.51 billion yuan), Henan (1.56 billion yuan), and Hubei (1.5 billion yuan) [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Local Bond Actual Issuance and Forecast Issuance - **Actual Issuance vs. Pre - issuance Disclosure**: From June 2 to June 8, the net supply of local government bonds was 5.05 billion yuan; from June 9 to June 15, the forecast net supply of local government bonds was - 4.3 billion yuan [14][18]. - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In May, there were differences between the planned and actual issuance of local government bonds. In June, there were also differences between the disclosed plan and the actual issuance [16][19]. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of June 8, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 44.96%, and that of new special bonds was 36.46% [26]. - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: As of June 8, the cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus the maturity of local government bonds for the year was presented in a chart [26]. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of June 8, statistics on special refinancing bonds from the first to the fourth rounds were presented, including the issuance amount of each round in different regions [31]. - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of June 8, statistics on special new special bonds were presented, including the issuance amount in different regions from 2023 to 2025 [33]. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Charts showed the primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds, including the spread changes for different maturities and the overall spread [38]. - **Regional Secondary Spread**: The secondary spreads of local government bonds in different regions from April 18, 2025, to June 6, 2025, were presented [41]. - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The investment direction of new special bonds was presented in a chart, with the latest month's statistics only considering the issued new bonds [43].