Core Viewpoint - The premium space created by geopolitical tensions has been fully absorbed, leading to a significant drop in SC crude oil prices, raising questions about whether this is a short-term adjustment or a long-term trend [1] Group 1 - Analysts warn that the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices has not been completely factored in, suggesting potential for further price stabilization [1]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic fuel prices in China are experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable increase expected in the upcoming adjustment scheduled for July 1, 2025, following a period of price declines earlier in the year [1][3][5]. Price Trends - After a series of price adjustments from February to May 2025, domestic fuel prices saw a cumulative decrease of approximately 0.85 to 0.91 yuan per liter, with the lowest prices recorded since Q3 2021 [3][5]. - The latest price adjustment on May 17, 2025, marked a significant increase of 260 yuan per ton, leading to a rise in 92 gasoline prices in Beijing to 7.17 yuan per liter [3][5]. Upcoming Adjustments - The 13th price adjustment of 2025 is set for July 1, 2025, with current estimates indicating a potential increase of 520 yuan per ton, translating to an expected rise of 0.40 to 0.46 yuan per liter [5][7]. - As of June 24, 2025, the oil price increase trend is expected to continue, although recent drops in international oil prices may temper the extent of domestic price hikes [5][7]. Market Influences - The fluctuations in domestic fuel prices are influenced by international oil market conditions, particularly the recent decline in WTI and Brent crude oil prices by over 7% due to easing geopolitical tensions [5][7]. - The potential for a decrease in international oil prices could lead to a narrowing of the expected price increase for the upcoming adjustment [7]. Regional Price Variations - Current gasoline prices across various regions in China show significant variation, with 92 gasoline prices in Beijing at 7.17 yuan per liter, while other regions report different pricing structures [8].