原油日报 | 2026-02-27 美伊谈判出现转折，油价剧烈波动 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所4月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌21美分，收于每桶65.42美元，跌幅为0.32%； SC原油主力 合约收涨0.74%，报490元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月27日，乌克兰国家石油天然气公司26日在官网发表声明说，乌克兰将首次通过立陶宛克莱佩达港接收美国 液化天然气。声明说，乌国家石油天然气公司与立陶宛Ignitis集团进行合作，将于今年2月至3月期间通过克莱佩达 港接收9000万立方米美国液化天然气。乌能源部长什梅加尔说，在当前俄罗斯几乎每天都攻击乌能源和天然气基 础设施的情况下，实现能源供应路线多元化、加强能源安全至关重要。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 2月26日，最近，近期和较远期的布伦特原油合约之间的价格差异有所缩窄，这表明现货市场供应状况正在逐 渐改善。通过里海管道联盟终端出口的哈萨克斯坦石油在之前出现中断后已恢复正常供应。与此同时，浮式储存 设施的规模正在缩小，这表明此前滞留、受制裁的石油现在已找到了买家，据荷兰国际集团的分析师称。他们表 示："如果美国和伊朗之间的紧张 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价下行，其中 WTI 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.21 美元至 65.42 美 | | | | 元/桶，跌幅 0.32%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘上涨 0.08 美元至 70.85 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.11%。SC2604 以 486.5 元/桶收盘，下跌 3.1 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅 0.63%。伊朗外长阿拉格齐率领伊朗代表团抵达瑞士日 | | | | 内瓦，参加即将于 26 日举行的伊美第三轮谈判。在阿曼斡旋下， | | | | 伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判将于 26 日在日内瓦举行。美国近期在 | | | | 中东地区大规模集结兵力。美国总统特朗普近日承认，他在考虑 | | | | 对伊朗进行"有限军事打击"。EIA 周三公布的数据显示，由于炼 | | | 原油 | 油厂产能利用率下降且进口增加，上周美国原油库存增幅创 2023 | 震荡 | | | 年 2 月以来新大，推动库存增至八个半月来最高水平。EIA ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on February 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Shanghai Silver rose over 12%, Lithium Carbonate rose over 10%, Container Shipping European Line and SC Crude Oil rose over 6%, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU) and Platinum rose over 5%, and Palladium and Butadiene Rubber rose over 4%. On the downside, Polysilicon fell over 4%, and Coke and Live Pigs fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [4][5]. 2. Core Views - The overall futures market showed a pattern of more rises than falls, and different varieties were affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policies, and geopolitical situations, with different short-term trends [4][5]. 3. Variety Analysis Copper - Shanghai Copper opened low and moved high, with a slight increase. The US customs policy changed, and the supply and demand of copper showed a marginal improvement expectation. With the downstream recovery, copper demand is expected to increase, and the short-term copper price is mainly volatile and strong [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate opened high and moved high, with a significant increase. Affected by seasonal and holiday factors, the supply was tight in the short term. The policy window period and positive price predictions stimulated the market, and the short-term trend was strong [8][9]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ members will maintain the production plan, US oil inventories decreased, and the winter storm may stimulate demand. The Iran - US negotiation situation is uncertain, and the short-term crude oil price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply and demand were weak, and the开工 rate and production were at a low level. The Venezuelan crude oil supply was restricted, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the crude oil price. It is recommended to take a reverse arbitrage strategy [12]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, the企业开工率 was at a low - to - neutral level, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost increased, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. It is recommended to continue to narrow the L - PP spread [13][14]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, the downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The new production capacity was put into operation, and the supply - demand pattern improved limitedly. Continue to narrow the L - PP spread [15]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price decreased, the PVC开工率 was at a neutral level, the inventory was high, and the real - time demand was weak. However, there are policy and maintenance expectations, and the price is expected to be volatile [16][17]. Coking Coal - Coking Coal opened high and moved low, with a decline. The import coal supply recovered, the domestic mine开工率 was low, and the downstream demand lacked incremental support. The short - term price is under pressure [18]. Urea - The urea futures opened high and moved high, and the spot price rose. The Indian tender supported the market sentiment. With the upcoming spring plowing season, the price is expected to be stable and strong, but the increase may be limited [19][20].

每经AI快讯，2月24日，国内期货主力合约开盘多数上涨，沪银涨近13%，低硫燃料油（LU）、SC原油 涨近5%，氧化铝涨超3%，燃料油、沥青涨超2%。跌幅方面，烧碱跌超2%，沪锡、铁矿石、焦炭跌超 1%。 ...

2026年2月24日，春节假期后开盘首日，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。沪银涨近13%，低硫燃料油 （LU）、SC原油涨近5%，氧化铝涨超3%，燃料油、沥青涨超2%。跌幅方面，烧碱跌超2%，沪锡、铁 矿石、焦炭跌超1%。 | 序号 | 吉钓名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 要价 | 卖价 | 液幅器, | 联 | 英语 | 成立 | 海践 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护银2604 M | 22353 | eas | 22353 | 22366 | 12.97% | 2 | ਰੇ | 693 2567 | | 181286 | 66 | | 2 | 碳酸锂2605 M | 1600000 | 1977 | 160000 | 000809T | 7.79% | 995 | 6 | 1977 11560 | | 342065 | -161 | | 3 | 88888 | 549.05 | 60 | 549.05 | 550.00 | 5.00% | 2 ...

沪锡续涨超3% 原油携手燃料油强势反弹 基本金属2月10日整体走势偏弱，但锡仍在供应题材驱动下，延续前一日的涨势，以3.33%的涨幅领涨当日商品市场。近期贵金属市场抛售情绪缓和推动有 色金属整体企稳，而锡因原料端供应仍受制约，加之部分主产区冶炼厂开工率回落，且需求端AI等题材依旧火热，使得上周锡价的回落刺激了节前备货需 求的释放。不过随着春节假期临近，终端需求阶段放缓仍是大概率，且集中备货后进一步采购需求转淡，这也限制锡价短期涨幅。表现在盘面上，尽管10日 锡价收涨超3%，但这一涨幅一方面受益于前一交易日较低的结算价，另一方面，日内主力合约整体呈现减仓态势，也反映节前资金继续推高价格的意愿有 限。在此背景下，机构判断，短期锡价的超跌反弹空间有限。 新华财经北京2月10日电国内商品期货市场2月10日涨跌互现，其中沪锡、烧碱涨超3%；豆一、SC原油、燃料油涨超2%；沪银、LU、PTA涨超1%。下跌品 种方面，集运欧线主力合约跌超4%；焦炭、焦煤、工业硅、多晶硅、钯跌超1%。 截至10日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1659.61点，较前一交易日上涨9.56点，涨幅0.58%；中证商品期货指数收报2288.55 ...

沪锡、沪银涨超3%，烧碱、豆一涨超2%，SC原油、燃料油、低硫燃料油（LU）涨超1%；跌幅方面， 集运欧线跌超3%，苯乙烯（EB）跌超2%，多晶硅、焦煤、聚氯乙烯（PVC）、焦炭、工业硅跌超 1%。 沪锡、沪银涨超3%，烧碱、豆一涨超2%，SC原油、燃料油、低硫燃料油（LU）涨超1%；跌幅方面， 集运欧线跌超3%，苯乙烯（EB）跌超2%，多晶硅、焦煤、聚氯乙烯（PVC）、焦炭、工业硅跌超 1%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]