原油日报 | 2025-08-26 宏观情绪与俄乌局势推动油价反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.14美元，收于每桶64.80美元，涨幅为1.79%；10月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.07美元，收于每桶68.80美元，涨幅为1.58%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.16%，报499 元/桶。 2、 印尼贸易部周一敦促欧盟立即取消对生物柴油进口征收的反补贴税，因世贸组织在该国提起的申诉中，就多 项关键诉求作出了有利于印尼的裁决。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。巴加埃表示， 此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表通话的后续行动。会谈 除讨论解除制裁和核问题外，还将讨论联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走向。(来源：Bloomberg） 4、 乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的无人机袭击加剧了俄罗斯国内燃料市场的夏季危机，在季节性需求高峰期间导致价 格飙升。随着供应萎缩，俄罗斯8月燃料批发价格创下历史纪录。这削弱了非俄罗斯石油巨头运营的小型加油站 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货时这些信息的推确性及完整性不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方 法，并不代表广发期货或其倾眉机楣机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所袁达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或均价，投资者局比投资，风险自担 。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布，复制，如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 2025年8月25日 张鹏珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 涨跌幅 | 8月22日 | 8月21日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 8月21日 | 品种 | 涨跌 | 品种 | 8月22日 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

SC价差走强突破前高，库存骤降支撑油价震荡反弹 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：2025年8月21日，SC原油主力合约大幅上涨1.68%至490.9 元/桶，突破近日震荡区间，WTI与Brent主力合约价格维持62.84美元/桶和 67.04美元/桶不变。SC与其他基准原油价差显著走强，SC-Brent价差从前 一日的0.21美元/桶扩大至1.35美元/桶（涨幅542.86%），SC-WTI价差亦从 4.41美元/桶攀升至5.55美元/桶，反映中国原油期货短期强势；Brent-WTI 价差则稳定于4.2美元/桶。SC近月与连3合约价差收窄，由-4.2元/桶修复 至-2.0元/桶，显示月间结构压力有所缓解。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：美国原油出口回升至8-9月400万桶/日以上（年初以来最高），主 因国内炼厂提前进入维护期导致轻质原油过剩，叠加亚洲市场对美国原油 偏好增强（WTI较中东原油贴水）。此外，OPEC+加速解除220万桶/日自愿 减产的潜在风险仍压制市场情绪，需警惕供应放量压力。地缘方面，英国 对伊朗商业实体制裁或加剧伊朗原油出口受限风险，但对实际贸易流影响 有限。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 62 cents, closing at $63.42 per barrel, a gain of 0.99%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose 75 cents, closing at $66.60 per barrel, a gain of 1.14%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed up 0.70% at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - After the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, Trump said there was no plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil. He might consider the issue in two or three weeks [1] - Trump interrupted his meeting with European leaders and called Putin to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with the location to be determined [1] - Ukraine will promise to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding and reach a $50 billion agreement with US to co - produce drones with Ukrainian companies [1] - After Ukraine attacked a pipeline transformer station, Russia's oil supply to Hungary was interrupted [1] - Multiple Palestinian factions, including Hamas, agreed to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar in the Gaza Strip [1] Investment Logic - Although the US - Russia talks have advanced the negotiation, the secondary sanctions on India for Russian oil have not been clearly cancelled. India will impose additional secondary tariffs on August 27, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation and India's decision need continuous attention [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]

| 序号 | 合村名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天价 | 英价 | ਕ ਵਿੱਚ 1 | 以平 | 48 | 成交軍 | 月時 | 持创量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 碳酸铝2511 M | 88160 | 4530 | 88120 | 88160 | 3.40% | 2 | 147 | 4530 | 2900 | 402034 | 895 | | 2 | & 甲ESSEI IN | 52810 | 497 | 52810 | 52860 | 2.74% | 59 | J | 497 | 1410 | 138650 | -73 | | 3 | 标相轴2601 M | ae48 | 606 | 9648 | 9650 | 2.57% | 15 | 872 | 377865 | 242 | 524404 | 43569 | | 4 | 工业定2511 M | 8805 | 775 | 8805 | 8810 | 2.09% | 268 | 1 | 775 ...

人民财讯8月18日电，国内期货开盘涨跌不一，碳酸锂涨超3%，多晶硅、焦煤涨超2%。跌幅方面，SC 原油跌超1%。 （原标题：国内期货开盘涨跌不一 碳酸锂涨超3%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts on August 15, with most contracts declining while a few experienced gains [1] Group 2 - The main declines were observed in soybean meal, which fell over 2%, and in soybean oil, Shanghai silver, and Shanghai nickel, each dropping over 1% [1] - On the other hand, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) saw an increase of over 1%, while SC crude oil, coke, and soda ash each rose nearly 1% [1]