Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing US-Iran conflict, highlighting the diplomatic stalemate and the proposed 15-point peace plan from the US, which Iran has rejected, leading to further military actions and counterconditions from Iran [3][4]. - The probability of a one-month ceasefire is estimated at 60%, with both parties using it as a tactical pause rather than a genuine resolution to core issues [2][6]. - The article outlines three scenarios for the conflict's progression: a baseline scenario with a temporary ceasefire, an optimistic scenario where Iran accepts US demands, and a pessimistic scenario where the conflict escalates [7][12]. Group 2 - In the baseline scenario, Brent crude oil prices are expected to stabilize between $80-90 per barrel, leading to a significant reduction in geopolitical risk premiums and a subsequent decline in energy and chemical product prices [7][12]. - The article provides a detailed analysis of how a ceasefire would impact various domestic energy and chemical products, predicting price declines for products like low-sulfur fuel oil and PX, with expected drops of 12%-16% and 19%-23% respectively [9][10]. - The supply issues in the domestic energy and chemical market are attributed to structural problems rather than a lack of overall capacity, with the article forecasting a gradual resolution of these issues post-ceasefire [10][13].

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.22 to close at $92.35 per barrel, a gain of 4.79%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $4.55 to close at $104.49 per barrel, a gain of 4.55%. The SC crude oil main contract fell 1.56% to 740 yuan per barrel [1] - Hungary's MOL Group has received approval from U.S. regulators to continue negotiations to acquire a majority stake in the refinery of Serbia's NIS [1] - Iran has started charging tolls on some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating its control over this key global maritime energy route. Some ships have paid the fee, highlighting the urgent need of some consumers to ensure a continuous energy flow [1] - The Asian Development Bank has launched an emergency assistance program for countries severely affected by the Middle East war and will lift restrictions on corporate financing for oil purchases. The new assistance mechanism first benefits Sri Lanka [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - The future of the Middle East conflict is uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz toll is true, it is unacceptable to Gulf oil - producing countries and Asia - Pacific consumers. Saudi Arabia hopes the U.S. will continue military action against Iran, increasing the probability of further conflict and short - term oil price volatility [2] Group 3: Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are strongly driven up by the potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but are also prone to sharp drops if the situation reverses. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risk: The Middle East war eases and the strait resumes normal navigation [3] - Upside risk: The suspension of the Strait of Hormuz lasts longer than expected [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 24, 2026. Factors such as the Middle - East situation, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes significantly influenced the prices of various commodities. The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict in the region and the status of the Hormuz Strait, had a major impact on the energy and chemical markets, leading to price fluctuations and uncertainties [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 24, domestic futures main contracts had different performances. Carbonate lithium rose over 6%, palladium over 4%, platinum over 3%, and some other commodities like Shanghai tin, Shanghai silver, and 20 - number rubber rose over 2%. On the other hand, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), SC crude oil fell over 8%, fuel oil over 7%, and ethylene glycol over 6%. In the stock index futures, all major contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose, while in the bond futures, 2 - year bond futures fell 0.02%, 5 - year bond futures were flat, 10 - year bond futures rose 0.02%, and 30 - year bond futures rose 0.52%. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into Shanghai silver 2606, platinum 2606, and live hogs 2605, while funds flowed out of crude oil 2605, CSI 300 2606, and Shanghai gold 2604 [4][5]. 3.2. Market Analysis 3.2.1. Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventory was significant, with a slight increase in overall oil product inventory. The market focused on the Middle - East situation. Iran's daily crude oil production was about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports were about 1.6 million barrels. The Hormuz Strait, through which about 13 million barrels of crude oil passed daily in 2025, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne crude oil flow, had been nearly shut down for many days, leading to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Although some measures such as the release of strategic oil reserves and the relaxation of sanctions on some countries' oil industries alleviated short - term supply pressure, it was still less than the previous seaborne volume in the Hormuz Strait. The situation had not been truly eased, and the risk of crude oil prices rising further still existed [7][8]. 3.2.2. Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% compared with the previous week, and was 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, but the overall demand was still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly, and the price in Shandong continued to rise. Due to concerns about raw material shortages in domestic refineries, and with the situation in the Middle - East remaining tense and the Hormuz Strait still not navigable, it was expected that the asphalt price would follow the crude oil price and be strong and volatile in the near future [9]. 3.2.3. PP - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP production rate rose by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36%, but the demand recovery was slow. On March 24, the PP enterprise production rate dropped to about 76.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire decreased to about 25.5%. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP had improved, the downstream was resistant to high prices, and the spot trading was weak. If the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation, the refinery production cuts would increase, and the PP price was expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future [11]. 3.2.4. Plastic - On March 24, the plastic production rate dropped to about 82.5%. As of the week of March 20, the PE downstream production rate rose by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59%, but had not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory had decreased. Although new production capacity had been put into operation in January 2026, there were no new production capacity plans in the first quarter. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastic had improved, but the downstream was resistant to high prices, and the spot trading was weak. If the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation, the refinery production cuts would increase, and the plastic price was expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future [12][14]. 3.2.5. PVC - The information about PVC is the same as that of plastic, including production rate, downstream production rate, inventory, cost, supply, and price trends. It was also expected to be in a strong - side shock in the near future if the Hormuz Strait could not resume navigation [15]. 3.2.6. Urea - Urea opened and closed lower today. After the futures market rose yesterday, the market transaction price rebounded slightly, but the futures fluctuated. The daily production of urea was maintained at around 21 - 220,000 tons, with sufficient supply. The downstream agricultural demand was weakening, but there was still some purchasing. The compound fertilizer factories maintained a high - production - rate inventory - reduction trend. The price was supported by cost increases and terminal demand, and the inventory continued to decline. Although affected by external market sentiment, the increase in urea price was limited, and it was expected to be in a high - level shock during the conflict [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The performance of domestic futures contracts on March 23, 2026, showed a mixed trend, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market was highly influenced by the Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, which had a significant impact on energy - related commodities [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term; lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation; crude oil has a risk of further price increases; and prices of other commodities such as asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, and urea also face different degrees of uncertainty and are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical situations [11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - As of the close on March 23, 2026, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Propylene, butadiene rubber, LPG, coking coal, plastic, and polypropylene hit the daily limit up. Pure benzene and styrene rose more than 10%, methanol, ethylene glycol, and PX rose more than 8%, and PTA, coke, and SC crude oil rose more than 7%. On the downside, palladium fell more than 12%, Shanghai silver and platinum fell more than 11%, and Shanghai gold and polysilicon fell more than 8%. Stock index futures and bond futures also had different degrees of rise and fall [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on March 23, coking coal 2605, CSI 1000 2606, and crude oil 2605 had capital inflows of 1.768 billion, 1.341 billion, and 1.155 billion respectively; Shanghai gold 2604, Shanghai silver 2606, and platinum 2606 had capital outflows of 4.826 billion, 2.839 billion, and 0.859 billion respectively [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - On March 23, Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with an intraday decline of more than 2%. The overseas copper concentrate supply remained tight, and domestic port copper concentrate inventory decreased. The waste - copper market was also restricted, leading to a reduction in waste - copper production. Although the raw - material supply for copper smelting was affected, electrolytic copper production was not directly affected. Downstream demand recovery was sluggish, and copper prices were under pressure. In March, production increased due to previous smelter production cuts and new production capacity, but there were maintenance plans in the second quarter, which would lead to a decline in production. As of February 2026, copper apparent consumption was 1.1739 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.07%. In March, the air - conditioning peak season increased demand, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased. The copper - foil market had active transactions, and the copper - rod market released production capacity. However, from January 1 to 15, March, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market decreased by 28% year - on - year. Overall, the copper price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation and the US dollar trend [9][11]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - On March 23, lithium carbonate opened low and closed high, with the price turning positive at the end of the session. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 146,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 143,500 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton. In February 2026, China's lithium - carbonate import volume was 26,426.79 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.61% and a year - on - year increase of 114.36%. Chile was the largest import source. The export of lithium ore from Zimbabwe was expected to gradually resume after the new export license was approved. Although the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, the overall demand growth showed signs of weakening. From January 1 to 15, March, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market decreased by 28% year - on - year. Lithium - carbonate prices were expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [12]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data showed that the US crude - oil inventory increased more than expected, but the refined - oil inventory decreased significantly, and the overall oil inventory increased slightly. The market focused on the Middle - East situation. Iran's daily crude - oil production was about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of the global production, and its daily export was about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz was an important shipping route for crude oil. The Strait of Hormuz had been almost shut down for several days, leading to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. The US and Iran had no intention to stop the war. The situation in the Middle - East was tense, and there was a risk of further price increases for crude oil. Although some measures had been taken to relieve the short - term supply pressure, they were still insufficient compared with the previous shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the actual crude - oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz [14]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 21.8% last week, which was 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year and at the lowest level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the downstream industries' production rates mostly increased, but the road - asphalt production rate was still lower than that at the end of January. The shipment volume in East China decreased, and the national shipment volume decreased by 37.6% to 109,900 tons. The asphalt factory - warehouse inventory rate decreased slightly, still at the lowest level in recent years. The price of asphalt in Shandong increased, and the basis was repaired but still at a low level. China's import of Venezuelan crude oil was expected to decrease significantly, and the Middle - East raw - material supply would be affected. Although the import of Iranian asphalt was small, the import of asphalt from other Middle - East countries accounted for about 6% of China's asphalt production. This week, Qilu Petrochemical resumed production, but the main refineries in East and South China reduced their loads. After the Lantern Festival, the terminal demand gradually recovered. The asphalt price was expected to be strong and volatile, following the crude - oil price, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation [15]. 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 20, the downstream production rate of PP increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36%. After the Spring Festival, the downstream's acceptance of high - price raw materials was low, and the demand recovery was slow. On March 23, some parking devices of Dongguan Juzhengyuan restarted, and the PP enterprise production rate increased to about 77.5%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to about 26%. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the Middle - East situation, the crude - oil price rebounded. Although the device production rate recovered slightly, it was still lower than that at the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released, and the price of BOPP film increased. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP improved, but the upstream relied on Middle - East liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. If the Strait of Hormuz could not resume navigation, the refinery load reduction would increase, and the PP price was expected to be strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [16][17]. 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 23, the plastic production rate remained at about 85%, at a neutral level. As of the week of March 20, the downstream production rate of PE increased by 3.76 percentage points to 37.59%. After the Spring Festival, the downstream gradually resumed production but had not returned to the pre - festival level. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory decreased and was at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the Middle - East situation, the crude - oil price rebounded. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026, and there were no new production - capacity plans in the first quarter. The plastic production rate decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories resumed work, and the rigid demand was released. The prices of agricultural films in North, East, and South China continued to rise. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastic improved, but the import from the Middle - East affected the international price and supply. If the Strait of Hormuz could not resume navigation, the refinery load reduction would increase, and the plastic price was expected to be strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [18]. 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium - carbide price in the northwest region was stable. The PVC production rate decreased by 1.23 percentage points to 80.12%, at a neutral level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream production rate of PVC increased by 2.33 percentage points to 41.66%, but was 4.79 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival, the downstream resumed production, but the downstream's resistance to high - price raw materials increased. In terms of exports, some overseas device loads decreased, and the export price increased significantly. Under the improvement of supply and demand, the social inventory decreased for the first time after the Spring Festival but was still high. The real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real - estate market needed time. The PVC price was expected to be strongly volatile if the Strait of Hormuz could not resume navigation [19]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed at the daily limit up. The domestic coal - production resumption continued, and the domestic mine production rate reached 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 4.84%. The production and production rate were both higher than the same period last year. The downstream purchasing was active, the mine inventory decreased by 235,900 tons, the downstream coking - enterprise inventory increased by 356,000 tons, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 37,000 tons. The coke production increased, the steel - mill profitability recovered, and the production rate increased by 1.29%. Due to the Middle - East situation, the coking - coal price followed the increase in crude - oil price, and the coking - coal price was pushed up by the energy - substitution effect and the downstream recovery in the peak season [20][21]. 3.2.9 Urea - Most areas' urea quotes were stable over the weekend, and some factories lowered their prices. After the futures price rose today, the trading sentiment improved, and the spot price was expected to be firm in the short term. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were in the range of 1,800 - 1,840 yuan/ton. The daily production of urea was maintained at around 210,000 - 220,000 tons, and the state - reserve supply entered the market, with overall sufficient supply. The downstream agricultural demand weakened but still had some end - stage purchases. The compound - fertilizer factories maintained a high - production - rate trend to reduce inventory, and the production - capacity utilization rate was expected to continue to be released next week. The cost increased, and the prices of synthetic ammonia, ammonium chloride, and ammonium sulfate all rose. The inventory continued to decline, and the international urea market drove up the domestic urea sentiment. The urea market was expected to be volatile at a high level, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of high prices [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The next stage of the Iran war is expected to revolve around the struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz. The long - term interruption of the Strait is not in the interests of all countries, but the recovery path remains unclear [2] - Oil prices will maintain high volatility in the short - term due to geopolitical situations, and it is risky to participate in the crude oil market currently. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $2.71 to $96.21 per barrel, a 2.90% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $3.21 to $103.42 per barrel, a 3.20% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.74% at 756 yuan per barrel [1] - BP issued a shutdown notice to the employees represented by the United Steelworkers (USW) regarding the Whiting refinery. The shutdown will take effect on March 19 [1] - Iraq has cut its daily crude oil production from about 4.2 million barrels to just over 1 million barrels due to the interruption of exports through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East war. Iraq is negotiating with Iran to ensure that some of its oil tankers can pass through the Strait [1] - An oil - containing wastewater fire accident occurred at the periphery of the Olmeca refinery of Pemex, resulting in 5 deaths [1] - The Trump administration plans to further relax sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry to increase crude oil production. Measures may be announced this week, including issuing more individual licenses and establishing a broader mechanism to allow more companies to enter the Venezuelan market. Companies expected to be authorized by the U.S. Treasury to operate in Venezuela include a subsidiary of ONGC Videsh, Maha Capital AB, and J&F Investimentos [1] - The Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq said that they have decided to export oil through the Kurdistan Region pipeline as soon as conditions permit [1] - The Turkish Finance Minister said that the oil price fluctuations caused by the Iran war may temporarily frustrate the government's inflation - reduction plan. Energy cost increases are affecting all areas of the Turkish economy, which may weaken the monetary policy used to suppress consumer demand, stabilize the lira exchange rate, and rebuild investor confidence [1] Investment Logic - There have been new changes in the navigation situation of the Strait. Countries are trying to negotiate with Iran through diplomatic means. Recently, relevant ships from India and Pakistan have passed through the Strait. Iran's current strategy seems to be to allow selective passage of ships rather than a complete interruption. However, the overall navigation volume of the Strait is still very low [2] Strategy - Due to the high volatility of oil prices in the short - term affected by geopolitical situations, it is recommended to use options to hedge risks when participating in the crude oil market [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, the crude oil price has soared by more than 40% since the outbreak of the Iran war, and the US economy shows signs of "stagflation". The report advises on different trading strategies for various futures products based on their respective fundamentals and technical analysis [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The US military bombed military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, and Trump threatened to target energy facilities responsible for about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Iran warned of retaliation against US - related energy assets in the Middle East if its energy facilities were attacked [3] - Trump refused to reach an agreement with Iran under existing conditions, emphasizing that any agreement must include Iran's commitment to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The Pentagon expects the Iran war to last four to six weeks [3] - Trump called on countries like China to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz for escort. Iran is considering allowing oil tankers with RMB - settled goods to pass through the Strait [3] - The crude oil price surge has led to a drop in consumer confidence in March, and the US economic data shows "stagflation" signs, with the Q4 GDP growth rate revised down to 0.7% and core personal consumption expenditure price rising by 3.1% year - on - year [3] Futures Operation Suggestions - For crude oil, avoid unilateral chasing up or selling down, use range trading. Brent should be in the range of $80 - 100 per barrel, and SC crude oil in the range of 600 - 800 yuan per barrel. Set stop - losses and avoid overnight positions to prevent extreme gap risks caused by geopolitical events [4] Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The overall market showed a trend of bottom - hunting and recovery. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext and STAR Market Indexes turned positive in the afternoon. Technically, the 5 - minute level is oversold, and there is a rebound requirement. Low - bought varieties today can be considered for profit - taking during the early - morning rally tomorrow [6][7] Gold - The daily - level red - green line of gold turns bearish. After a small gap - up opening, gold oscillated and declined throughout the day. An empty - high trading idea is recommended [10] Iron Ore - Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm, and there is an expectation of loose supply in the medium - to - long - term. The demand side is affected by post - holiday steel mill复产. Technically, the commodity sentiment is high, and iron ore is running strongly. A bullish view can be maintained [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. It is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment in the short - term. Technically, it closed with a large negative line today. Before breaking through the upper pressure, a wide - range oscillation trading idea should be adopted [15][16] Methanol - Due to the geopolitical situation in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, and the high - running international oil price has lifted the overall price of energy - chemical commodities. As Iran is the main source of China's methanol imports, local methanol production enterprises are shut down. The import volume of methanol in China will be low for at least the next 1 - 2 months, and the consumption of existing methanol sources will increase, with a positive fundamental expectation [18] Pulp - Since the port inventory has started to decline, it will show a weak oscillating rebound from today's daytime to evening. When the price rebounds after hitting support during the decline, long positions can be taken opportunistically, and risk control should be noted [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, PG is still trading under the tension of near - end international supply and the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation. As the Strait blockade continues, the supply - demand contradiction structure may change periodically. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing price, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various energy and chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical raw materials. For example, the WTI crude oil price is $99.31 per barrel, with a daily increase of 3.03%, a weekly increase of 8.81%, a monthly increase of 58.11%, and an annual increase of 47.17%. [3] 3.2 LPG Market Analysis Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 54.39 million tons, including 22.65 million tons of civil gas, 20.52 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.72 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume last week was 61 million tons, an increase of 13.41%. Multiple refineries in Shandong and East China reduced production, and a refinery in North China is scheduled for maintenance this week, which may lead to a decline in domestic LPG commodity volume. [4] Demand - Civil gas procurement has increased due to concerns about supply interruptions, leading to a short - term increase in combustion demand. The risk of raw material supply interruption for PDH has intensified, resulting in a decline in the operating rate of PDH plants and postponed maintenance by enterprises to control losses. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the cost has pushed up product prices, but high prices have suppressed actual demand, resulting in light market transactions. However, in the long run, it is beneficial for domestic MTBE exports. [4] Inventory - Last week, the in - plant LPG inventory was [not specified] (with a change of 8.91%), and the port inventory was 227.24 million tons (with a change of - 1.52%). The market sentiment of refineries is still dominated by news, and prices have been successfully pushed up due to the hoarding behavior of manufacturers. However, due to the volatile geopolitical situation, market transactions vary. Although the number of arriving ships at ports has increased, the inventory of ships arriving at the end of the week will be reflected next week, and there has been little change in the unloading volume this week. With the increase in demand, the port inventory has decreased this period. [4] Basis, Position - The weekly average basis in East China is 517.60 yuan/ton, in South China is 392.00 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 440.00 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts is 3108, an increase of [not specified], and the lowest deliverable location is Shandong. [4] Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 63.23%, 57.31%, and 38.34% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton, 249 yuan/ton, and 37 yuan/ton respectively. [4] Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is 1.04 (a decrease of 4.22%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months is N/A yuan/ton (N/A). The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified, causing crude oil prices to rise, but the oil - gas cracking spread shows a weakening trend. [4] Other Factors - The military conflict between the US - Israel and Iran has seriously escalated the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has caused panic - driven price increases in products from crude oil, LPG, methanol to downstream olefins, resulting in a temporary shortage of resource supply. The "15th Five - Year Plan" of the 2026 National Two Sessions aims for an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%. The IEA has coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to address the shipping interruption crisis in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US - Israel military strike on Iran. [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price and Spread Analysis - The report provides the prices, monthly spreads, and cross - monthly spreads of LPG futures contracts, including PG01 - PG12. It also includes the scoring rules and price change data for different spreads. For example, the current value of PG01 - PG02 is 87.00, with a 12.12% decrease compared to last week. [11][12] 3.4 Refinery and Plant Maintenance Plans - The report lists the maintenance plans of major Chinese refineries, local refineries, PDH plants, and LPG factories, including the refinery names, locations, processing capacities, maintenance devices, maintenance capacities, start and end times, etc. [14][15][16] 3.5 International and Domestic Price and Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing the prices, spreads, and ratios of various LPG - related products in the international and domestic markets, including CP propane/butane prices, FEI propane/butane prices, MB propane/butane prices, and their spreads and ratios with WTI, Brent crude oil, etc. There are also charts about the spreads between different LPG products and the spreads between LPG and other energy products. [17][23][27][30][36][38][41][47][51][53][54][63] 3.6 Consumption and Inventory Data - The report shows consumption data such as the apparent consumption of LPG, the combustion consumption of domestic C3, and the chemical consumption of olefin LPG and butane. It also provides inventory data including port inventory, refinery inventory, and their corresponding capacity utilization rates in different regions. [145][168][170][185][186] 3.7 Deep - Processing Profit Analysis - The report analyzes the profits of alkane deep - processing, olefin deep - processing (including MTBE and alkylation oil), including PDH - to - propylene/PP/PP powder profits, MTBE isomerization/etherification profits, and alkylation oil profits, along with their corresponding operating rates. [203][206][211][215][218][219][220][223][226]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of various futures commodities on March 13, 2026, including their price movements, market trends, and influencing factors [5][6] Commodity Performance Gainers - SC crude oil rose over 5%, rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and asphalt rose over 3%. Caustic soda, alumina, soybeans, and iron ore rose over 2% [5] Losers - Container shipping to Europe fell over 7%, Shanghai silver and tin fell over 4%, platinum and pure benzene fell over 3%, and styrene, 20 - number rubber, lithium carbonate, rubber, palladium, and polysilicon fell over 2% [6] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) fell 0.08%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) fell 0.38%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 1.14%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.11% [6] Bond Futures - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) remained flat, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) remained flat, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.07%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.25% [6] Fund Flows - Inflows: Coking coal 2605 had an inflow of 370 million, methanol 2605 had an inflow of 267 million, and caustic soda 2605 had an inflow of 252 million - Outflows: CSI 2603 had an outflow of 2.605 billion, CSI 1000 2603 had an outflow of 2.575 billion, and Shanghai gold 2604 had an outflow of 1.955 billion [6] Market Analysis Copper - High - opening and low - closing, with an intraday decline. Due to an accident at Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon Mine, all mining operations of Kennecott Utah Copper were suspended. Domestic copper production in March is expected to reach a record high. Although downstream demand is increasing, the market is still affected by the Middle East situation, showing a weak and volatile trend [8] Lithium Carbonate - High - opening and low - closing, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. Supply is in a multi - empty balance, while downstream demand shows a downward trend. Although inventory is being depleted, the depletion rate is narrowing. It shows a range with support at the bottom and suppression at the top [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The US crude oil inventory increase exceeded expectations, but refined oil inventory decreased. The Middle East situation has a significant impact on oil prices, and there is still a risk of price surges [11][12] Asphalt - Supply side: The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%. The expected production in March is 2.187 million tons, a 13.0% increase from the previous month. Demand side: Downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the national shipment volume increased by 12.67%. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow crude oil prices and be strong and volatile [13] PP - The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. The enterprise operating rate is around 75.5%. The supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream has a high - price resistance. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, prices are likely to rise [15] Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to around 87.5%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. New production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices are likely to rise if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation [16][17] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased to 81.35%. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, but inventory pressure is still large. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, prices are likely to rise [18] Coking Coal - High - opening and high - closing, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. Mine production and operating rate are high, but inventory has been significantly depleted. Steel mill demand is recovering slowly. If the Middle East situation cools down, there is an expectation of price correction [19][20] Urea - Low - opening and high - closing, with a weak and volatile trend. The supply side is stable and strong, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. Inventory has been significantly depleted. Downstream industrial demand is starting to pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand [21]

Core Viewpoint - The recent extreme volatility in the domestic commodity futures market is primarily driven by energy prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to significant price fluctuations and a shift from a bullish to a bearish market within a short period [2][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On March 9, a wide range of commodity futures experienced a significant surge, particularly in the energy and chemical sectors, with many contracts hitting their daily price limits [2]. - The market saw a "limit-up" phenomenon, especially in energy products like SC crude oil and fuel oil, driven by rising international oil prices, which approached $120 per barrel [5][6]. - Following the initial surge, market sentiment quickly reversed, with only 10 out of 72 main contracts maintaining an upward trend the next day, indicating a shift to a volatile trading environment [2][7]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has raised global energy supply concerns, contributing to the rapid increase in oil prices [5]. - The rise in oil prices not only directly affects energy products but also influences chemical product prices through cost transmission along the supply chain [6]. - Domestic refined oil prices have also increased in line with international oil prices, reinforcing expectations of further energy price hikes [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Performance - In periods of extreme market volatility, different types of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies exhibit significant performance divergence [9]. - Subjective CTA strategies, which rely on macroeconomic and fundamental analysis, may struggle to adapt quickly to sudden market changes, leading to increased net value fluctuations [9]. - In contrast, quantitative CTA strategies, which utilize diversified portfolios and automated trading, tend to perform more stably during volatile periods due to their risk management mechanisms [9]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - High volatility in the commodity market often indicates increased trend opportunities, driven by geopolitical conflicts, energy price fluctuations, and changing global inflation expectations [13]. - In the current environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, CTA strategies remain valuable for asset allocation, offering risk diversification and potential trend capture during significant price movements [13]. - Investors are advised to focus on the stability of strategy structures, as diversified quantitative CTA strategies are better suited to handle extreme market conditions compared to single-product strategies [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupting Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports, many Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure [3]. - For crude oil futures, in the medium - term, three variables need to be focused on: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy implementation rhythm. It is recommended to trade within a range and avoid unilateral chasing [4]. - For the stock market, the adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity. The market showed strength today as it did not decline when it should [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The war between the US, Israel and Iran has disrupted Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports. Asian steam cracking plants with over 60% of naphtha raw materials from the Middle - East have declared force majeure [3]. - Three operators are reducing production loads to use raw material inventory for the next month to avoid full - scale shutdown. Restarting a steam cracking unit takes up to two weeks, and factories usually don't store more than a month's worth of raw materials [3]. - In the medium - term, focus on three variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium (the 8 - 10 dollars/barrel premium will fade if the strait passage recovers), supply - demand fundamentals (OPEC + production cuts and slow US shale oil production increase form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak), and policy implementation rhythm (US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC + production adjustments will determine the volatility center). It is recommended to trade within a range (Brent: 80 - 100 dollars/barrel, SC crude: 600 - 800 yuan/barrel) and set stop - losses, avoiding overnight positions [4]. Stock Market - The market adjustment today was slightly weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index being relatively strong. The fact that it didn't decline when it should indicates strength. The adjustment in the early trading tomorrow is a good low - buying opportunity [6][7]. Gold - The daily - level red - green line of gold has turned to a volatile state. The daily amplitude of gold is small, maintaining in the range of 1140 - 1155. It should be treated with a volatile mindset [10]. Iron Ore - Australian and Brazilian shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, with a loose supply expectation. On the demand side, steel mills are resuming production after the festival, but the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, the commodity sentiment is high recently, and iron ore is running strongly. A bullish view can be maintained [12][13]. Glass - The daily melting change is small. In the seasonal off - season, factory inventories are accumulating. The post - festival resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises needs to be concerned. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Technically, it rebounded today and should be treated as a wide - range volatile market [17][18]. Methanol - Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and a major methanol exporter, significantly affecting global methanol supply. Driven by Middle - East geopolitical emergencies, methanol has had continuous large fluctuations. With a significant reduction in supply, it has entered a destocking channel, and the methanol port inventory decreased by 13.07 tons this week [21]. Pulp - Most pulp and paper plants have resumed normal production schedules, with some undergoing maintenance. Domestic port inventories are continuously increasing and under pressure. The downstream paper mills' operating loads are expected to continue to increase. Due to low paper enterprises' gross profits, there is an expectation of price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, which may support pulp prices [24].