摘要8月26日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。机构跟踪的最新国际原油价格变动状况预测数据显示，本轮成品油零 售限价下调幅度远超50元/吨的红线要求，预计本轮成品油零售限价大概率将下调，这也意味着将迎来今年以来第七次下调，从而结束连续 两轮搁浅，部分地区的油价有望重回"6元时代"。 附：2025年油价调整更新时间表 | 月份 | 调整更新时间 | 调整更新结果 | | --- | --- | --- | | 12月 | 2025-12-23 | 未公布 | | | 2025-12-09 | 未公布 | | 11月 | 2025-11-25 | 未公布 | | | 2025-11-11 | 未公布 | | 10月 | 2025-10-28 | 未公布 | | | 2025-10-14 | 未公布 | | 月 | 2025-09-24 | 未公布 | | | 2025-09-10 | 未公布 | | 8月 | 2025-08-27 | 未公布 | | | 2025-08-13 | 不作调整 | | | 2025-07-30 | 不作调整 | | 7月 | 2025-07-16 | 汽油每吨下跌1 ...

午夜时分，全国加油站的电子显示屏即将迎来一次集体性的跳动，这一次，下跌的数字成为了主角。 让我们把时钟拨回到2025年初，那时的油价还是一场 让人心惊肉跳的过山车。 油价的起伏，背后是国际原油市场多方力量的博弈。华尔街的交易员们沉浸在对美联储降息的憧憬中，他们坚信油价将会重拾升势；而另一方面，石油输出 国组织（OPEC）却悄悄地拧大了输油阀门，计划提前一年完成减产目标，准备每日增产54.7万桶。面对这复杂的局面，就连加油站老板老王也忍不住感 叹："搞石油比炒股还刺激，明天是涨是跌，谁也说不准！" 有机构大胆预测，本轮油价的降幅可能会扩大到每吨300元。如果预测成真，那么92号汽油的价格有望重回6元时代，这将是2025年以来最大的一次单次跌 幅！ 然而，老司机们也切莫高兴得太早。 国际油价的走势瞬息万变，美联储是否降息仍然是个未知数。眼下的这波降价行情，就像是沙漠中难得一见的清泉， 如果错过了，可能又要经历漫长的等待。 2025年初，国际原油市场风云突变，油价波动如惊涛骇浪。年初至今，短短数月，国内成品油调价窗口已开启16次。这其中，4次因涨跌幅度过小而未能调 整，6次油价应声下跌，另有6次则逆势上涨，每一次波 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial situation of Sinopec, highlighting its significant debt of 1.1 trillion RMB and the challenges it faces in the oil market, while also emphasizing its strategic investments in new energy and materials to adapt to changing market conditions [1][10][16]. Group 1: Financial Situation - Sinopec has a debt of 1.1 trillion RMB, which is primarily a result of "debt financing" to invest in long-term projects such as new refineries and energy facilities [3][10]. - In 2022, Sinopec's refining and chemical sector invested 81.5 billion RMB, a 10% increase from the previous year, indicating ongoing capital expenditures [8]. - The company faces pressure from international oil price fluctuations, with prices soaring above 100 USD per barrel in 2022, impacting its profit margins [6][10]. Group 2: Oil Production and Consumption - In 2023, China's crude oil production was 209 million tons, while consumption reached 773 million tons, necessitating Sinopec to purchase crude oil to meet domestic demand [5][6]. - Sinopec operates one of the largest refining facilities globally, with a refining capacity of 240 million tons in 2022, but this comes with high maintenance costs [8]. Group 3: Taxation and Pricing Mechanism - The domestic oil price is capped when international prices exceed 130 USD per barrel, limiting Sinopec's profit margins and forcing it to cover the difference [10]. - Taxes account for over 40% of the retail price of gasoline, which constrains the extent to which prices can be lowered even when crude oil prices decrease [10]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Sinopec is actively expanding into the new energy sector, with 12.86 million electric vehicles sold in 2024 and a projected market penetration rate increase from 25.6% to 45% over two years [12]. - The company has invested over 10 billion RMB in high-end materials research in 2022, focusing on high-performance polymers and composite materials for various applications, including the electric vehicle market [14].

Price Trends in Various Markets - National production material market prices decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly declined, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Rubber and Steel Prices - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices predominantly decreased, with rebar, high-speed wire, and channel steel priced at 3452 yuan, 3639 yuan, and 3690 yuan per ton, showing declines of 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [2] Non-Ferrous Metals and Chemical Prices - Non-ferrous metal prices showed slight fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 0.6%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices remained stable, with soda ash and polypropylene decreasing by 0.4% and 0.3%, while methanol remained unchanged and sulfuric acid increased by 0.1% [3] Fertilizer and Coal Prices - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea and compound fertilizers unchanged from the previous week [4] - Coal prices saw a slight increase, with coking coal, anthracite, and thermal coal priced at 976 yuan, 1135 yuan, and 761 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in domestic fuel prices based on the changes in international crude oil prices, highlighting the mechanisms and conditions under which these adjustments occur [1][3][5]. Pricing Mechanism - Domestic fuel prices are adjusted every 10 working days, with a threshold of 50 yuan/ton for adjustments. If the international oil price exceeds $130/barrel, domestic prices may not increase significantly, while prices will not decrease if crude oil is below $40/barrel [1][3]. - The last price adjustment occurred on July 15, 2025, with a decrease of 0.1-0.11 yuan/liter for gasoline and diesel [3]. Current Market Conditions - As of August 8, 2025, the international oil prices were reported at $63.88/barrel for WTI and $66.59/barrel for Brent, indicating a significant decline of 8.74% and 9.08% respectively during the current pricing cycle [5][7]. - The current pricing cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of a potential decrease in domestic fuel prices due to the downward trend in international oil prices [3][7]. Factors Influencing Price Changes - Factors supporting the rise in oil prices include increased summer energy demand in the U.S., sanctions on Russia by the U.S. and EU, and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe [5]. - Conversely, the decline in oil prices is attributed to easing concerns over U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and disappointing U.S. economic performance, which has raised fears about energy demand [7]. Future Outlook - The upcoming pricing cycle (the 17th adjustment) is expected to start with a negative value, indicating a potential for significant price reductions in the next adjustment [7]. - The article suggests that the domestic fuel prices may remain stable or decrease in the near future, depending on the international oil market trends [5][7]. Regional Price Information - A table provides the current prices of 89, 92, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel across various provinces, indicating slight variations in pricing and recent changes [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated decline in oil prices in 2025, driven by multiple factors affecting the global oil market, with a significant downward trend expected starting in September 2025 [1]. Group 1: Current Oil Prices - As of August 6, 2025, domestic fuel prices are as follows: 92 gasoline at 7.23 CNY/liter, 95 gasoline at 7.69 CNY/liter, 98 gasoline at 8.49 CNY/liter, and 0 diesel at 6.87 CNY/liter [2]. - International oil prices are reported with WTI at $65.16 per barrel and Brent at $67.64 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 12.3% and 10.8% respectively from July highs [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Oil Price Decline - Major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, have increased production for five consecutive months, with OPEC planning to raise output by 547,000 barrels per day in September, leading to a significant risk of oversupply [5]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates has increased the cost of oil for buyers using other currencies, dampening consumption expectations [5]. - A slowdown in global economic activity and a decrease in trade, with the IMF reporting an 8% drop in global trade volume due to tariff policies, is contributing to reduced oil demand, particularly in the transportation sector [5]. - The acceleration of renewable energy adoption is evident, with renewable energy accounting for 42% of global power generation in the first half of 2025, and the cost of solar power dropping to one-third of coal power, further squeezing traditional oil demand [5]. - Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the reduced risk of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, has contributed to the decline in oil prices [5]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - The article concludes that the downward trend in oil prices is expected to become more pronounced in the near future, with the belief that the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy will gradually diminish as favorable economic policies are implemented [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in domestic fuel prices in China, particularly focusing on the upcoming price adjustment scheduled for August 12, 2025, and the factors influencing these changes, including international oil prices and economic data from the U.S. [1][3][5] Price Adjustment Mechanism - The 16th price adjustment cycle for gasoline and diesel in 2025 is set from July 30 to August 12, with the last adjustment occurring on July 29 [1][3] - Current fuel prices reflect a decrease of 130 yuan per ton for gasoline and 125 yuan per ton for diesel from the previous adjustments [1][3] Oil Price Trends - In the first three working days of the current pricing cycle, oil prices increased by 230 yuan per ton, but the increase slowed to 225 yuan per ton on the third day, translating to a rise of approximately 0.17-0.2 yuan per liter for various fuel types [3] - As of August 4, the average price of crude oil was reported at 70.97 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 3.95%, leading to an estimated increase of 210 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [3] International Market Influences - Recent declines in international oil prices, with WTI dropping from 70 USD to 67.33 USD per barrel, have contributed to a "two consecutive declines" in domestic oil price increases [3][5] - The drop in oil prices is attributed to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which raised concerns about energy demand [5] Future Price Predictions - The trajectory of oil prices in the coming week is crucial; if prices continue to decline, the anticipated increase in domestic fuel prices may not materialize [7] - Conversely, if the oil market stabilizes or shows slight increases, the expected rise in domestic fuel prices could be realized [7] Regional Price Overview - The article provides a detailed table of current fuel prices across various provinces in China, indicating the price per liter for different types of gasoline and diesel [7]

时光荏苒，今天是2025年8月2日，农历闰六月初八，距离8月12日新周期调价还有10天时间，截至本周，新周期完成30%，油价统计上涨225元/吨，处于大 涨范畴！但是，随着原油市场冲高回落，最近2个交易日，原油价格逆势连跌，且，隔夜市场，原油猛跌2.8%，新周期，油价涨幅或将收窄，下周涨幅或降 下来，此次油价今年"第7涨"能否兑现，悬念再起！ 据悉，截至目前，2025年前7个月，汽柴油调价完毕，最近2个月，油价呈现趋势上涨的走势！据悉，2025年6-7月份，汽柴油共计进行5次调价，其中，3次 上涨，1次下跌，1次搁浅，阶段性，汽油上涨430元/吨，换算升价，各种油品上涨0.35元/升左右！ 按照油价形成机制，目前，全国各地加油站，92/95号汽油以及0号柴油，油价仍维持7月15日24时，今年第14次调价，汽柴油下降130元以及125元/吨后的水 平，以北京为例，92号汽油报价在7.26元/升，山东报价在7.22元/升，相比5月末的低值，累计上涨幅度达0.35元/升！ 目前，按照汽柴油10个工作日调价的机制，2025年第16次调价，本周，计价周期完成前3个工作日，基于8月2日周末调价休市，本轮计价周期按照周五第 ...

Price Trends in Various Industries - The national production material market prices increased by 0.9% from July 21 to July 27 compared to the previous week [1] - Steel prices saw an overall increase, with hot-rolled strip steel, rebar, and channel steel priced at 3644 yuan, 3490 yuan, and 3673 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 3.0%, 2.6%, and 2.4% respectively [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices experienced slight increases, with zinc, copper, and aluminum rising by 2.9%, 1.9%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Rubber prices continued to rise, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber increasing by 1.5% and 0.7% respectively [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices saw minor increases, with soda ash, sulfuric acid, methanol, and polypropylene rising by 1.5%, 0.9%, 0.4%, and 0.2% respectively [4] - Coal prices were predominantly up, with coking coal and thermal coal priced at 942 yuan and 757 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.9% and 0.3% respectively, while the price of No. 2 smokeless lump coal decreased by 0.1% to 1129 yuan per ton [4] - Fertilizer prices showed a slight recovery, with both compound fertilizer and urea increasing by 0.1% [5] - Refined oil wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with 95-octane gasoline and 0-octane diesel decreasing by 0.1%, while 92-octane gasoline increased by 0.1% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that there will be no adjustment to domestic refined oil prices during the latest pricing window, despite fluctuations in international oil prices [1] Pricing Mechanism - Since the last adjustment on July 15, the average price of refined oil for the first ten working days leading up to July 29 showed a price change of less than 50 yuan per ton, which does not meet the threshold for a price adjustment according to the current pricing mechanism [1] - The prices for gasoline and diesel will remain at the levels set in the previous adjustment, with Beijing's 92-octane gasoline priced at 7.26 yuan per liter, 95-octane gasoline at 7.73 yuan per liter, and 0-octane diesel at 6.95 yuan per liter [1] Adjustment History - This marks the fifteenth pricing adjustment of the year, with three instances of price suspension. The overall trend for this year has been characterized by "six increases, six decreases, and three suspensions" [1] - The next pricing window will open at 24:00 on August 12 [1] Market Outlook - Analysts from Longzhong Information predict a higher probability of price increases in the next round of adjustments due to potential supply risks from the U.S. shortening the deadline for new sanctions on Russia, ongoing traditional fuel consumption peaks in the U.S., and eased concerns over tariffs following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU [1]